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Economists at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP believe that Britain’s total debt comprising the debts of UK consumers, companies, banks and the government may increase by 2015 almost to 10 trillion pounds ($16.1 billion) threatening the country’s long-term economic growth. Government debt is expected to rise from 67% of GDP to 77%. The country’s economy will add about 1.8% this year and 2% in 2011.

The debt of British households and companies advanced during the past 10 years on the property-related borrowing and lending between financial institutions, while the public debt rose as Britain’s tax revenue fell due to the recession.

There will be eventually too possible outcomes for the country. The debt should be sharply reduced that, in its turn, would risk causing another recession. Otherwise, the persistently heavy debt service burden would damp Britain’s economic growth for decades to come.

It’s necessary to understand that the interest rates will not be forever on the current exceptionally low level, so a large part of household and corporate lending remains exposed to possible future falls in residential and commercial property prices.



Chart. Daily GBP/USD

Currency strategists at Standard Bank Plc. advise investors to sell the single currency the greenback expecting that the pair EUR/USD will drop to $1.3450. The trade should be stopped if euro climbs to $1.4290, recommend the specialists. According to them, the European currency seems to have little strength on its crosses.



Chart. H4 EUR/USD

The spread on Portugal’s 10-year bonds over the German debt grew yesterday to the record high level of 452 basis points, while the spread on Irish 10-year securities over bunds reached an all-time maximum at 554 basis points. Portugal and Ireland still remain Europe’s most indebted countries.

Strategists at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. note that a sudden surge of the risk aversion on concerns the situation in these countries made investors increase demand for the greenback as a safe haven currency selling US stocks.



Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the European currency is bouncing for a third time from 38% Fibonacci retracement at 111.75. This time the jump was made with a small “hammer” candle.

The specialists believe that the pair EUR/JPY will find support at the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. According to them, euro will be gradually appreciating to rise a bit higher over the coming month. The bank strategists also draw investors’ attention to the fact that the Chinkou Span might have to struggle through candles for another month.

As a result, Mizuho recommends buying at 112.85/112.35 and stopping below 111.50. The pair EUR/JPY is thought to advance to 114.00 and then to 115.40/115.68.



Chart. H4 EUR/JPY

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Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. believe that the greenback may climb to 7-week maximum at 85 yen.

The specialists note that the daily Ichimoku chart shows the dollar went above the baseline on November 10 as it already happened when the pair USD/JPY gained on September 15 after Japan intervened at the currency market selling yen for the first time since 2004. US currency added momentum this week as the conversion line overcame the baseline forming a “golden cross”.

US dollar is poised to rise towards the Ichimoku Cloud. According to Mizuho, the Cloud was very thick when intervention occurred, but now it’s thin and, as a result, is regarded as an easy target. The strategists expect that the rate will break through the Cloud right after it enters it.

If USD/JPY manages to rise next week above the Cloud in 83.70 yen area and hold at those levels, it may be able to get upwards to the key psychological level at 85 yen, maximal since September 24.



Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Analysts at Societe Generale SA recommend buying British pound versus the greenback as the prospect of asset purchases by the Bank of England reduced. In addition, sterling was helped by fact that the economic data turned out to be better than the specialists thought ahead of public spending cuts.

According to Societe Generale, it’s necessary to purchase GBP/USD looking forward to its advance to $1.69 and end the trade if it weakens to $1.58. The analysts advise investors to buy Australian dollar against yen and the Norwegian krone versus the single currency.



Chart. H4 GBP/USD

John Taylor, the head of the world’s biggest foreign-exchange hedge fund FX Concepts LLC, doesn’t think that the policy of weak dollar will be enough to help the United States reduce its trade deficit that is strongly influenced by its gap with China that has reached $28 billion.

This problem is discussed in Seoul where G20 meeting is taking place. US President Barack Obama, who has pledged to double exports during 5 years, is trying to broaden the currency debate by linking it to a worldwide effort to rein in current-account imbalances.

Last month Taylor forecasted the greenback to stay at low levels against euro through November until the effect of the Fed’s bond-buying program deteriorates. Now the specialist recommends selling the single currency because of internal debt problems in the euro area. Euro is going to decrease faster than dollar did, expects Taylor.



Chart. H1 EUR/USD