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Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. advise investors to take profit on gains in emerging-market currencies as they expect these currencies to start declining up to the end of the year. The specialists believe in such outcome as the markets’ risk appetite may deteriorate due to the concerns that some European countries may need financial help.

So, such currencies as Brazilian real, South Korean won and Mexican peso are likely to switch downwards from their recent upward dynamics versus US dollar.

Emerging-market fundamentals are strong and the slump of their currencies is caused only by the external factors. As a result, when the situation in Europe stabilizes in 2011 emerging-market currencies will recover.

Brown Brothers Harriman claims that investors shouldn’t try to buy on the dips it’s necessary to take profit or to go short.

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Weekly GBP/USD

Last week the bulls have unexpectedly lost their positions at the GBP/USD market surrendering to the bears. As a result, there was a “hanging man” model formed on the daily candle chart. If this figure gets confirmed, the prices may return to the upper border of the Cloud – Senkou Span B.

The general outlook remains neutral as the Preceding lines (1, 2) stay horizontal being in process of forming the “golden cross”.

Chinkou Span is gradually going to the area of the maximal deviation from the price chart that may lead to the significant decline of the rate.



Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

Daily GBP/USD

As it was expected the “dark-cloud cover” formed on the daily chart led not only to the consolidation, but also to the correction of the prices to the Standard line (4) that was horizontal at that moment strengthening, in its turn, the support for the prices. As a result, the pound’s rate slightly rebounded on Wednesday. The further growth, however, was prevented by the Turning line (3) that’s still holding the bulls. So, on Friday there was a “high wave” formed on the candle chart that seems more like the “hanging man”.

It’s quite possible that at the beginning of this week the prices will fall again to the Kijun-sen (4) and then the advance will resume.



Chart. Daily GBP/USD

Weekly USD/JPY

It seems that the policy of holding yen’s advance conducted by the Bank of Japan began yielding its results – the pair USD/JPY is advancing during the second week in a row. The rate consolidated above 82.43 and the weekly Standard line (3) went horizontally.

Never the less, the global trend remains descending as the Ichimoku Cloud is directed downwards. It’s necessary to take into account that all the Preceding lines (1, 2) head downwards that’s only strengthening the bearish trend.

In addition, the Standard line (4) is also declining and is unlikely to reverse upwards in the near future.



Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

Daily USD/JPY

After last week’s growth the pair USD/JPY as it was expected broke through the Turning line and even consolidated above Tenkan-Kijun channel. However, on Friday the prices made attempt to correct back to the Standard line (4) that led to the appearance of the “hanging man” model on the candle chart.

The greenback’s advances influenced both short-term and the long-term lines. Tenkan and Kijun (3, 4) formed the “golden cross” (5). The Preceding lines (1,2) went horizontally warning about the sideways trend at the market.

It’s clear that this week flat will resume. The prices may return again to the Turning line to bounce off to the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud.



Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Weekly USD/CHF

Despite the strong bearish candle formed at the bounce off from the Turning line (3) a week ago, the past 5 trading days were quite positive. The bulls have gained almost compensating the decline and returned the rate to 0.9801. They didn’t manage yet, however, to break up the Tenkan-sen (3) that’s still directed downwards.

The4 general descending trend remained intact: the Ichimoku Cloud is going down and the “dead cross” (5) is still actual.

Taking into account that the Chinkou Span is going to the area of maximal deviation from the price chart, we may assume that this week the bulls will show their dominance in the short term.



Chart. Weekly USD/CHF

Daily USD/CHF

On the daily chart the bulls brought the rate right to the lower border of the Cloud breaking up the resistance of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (3, 4).

The lines, however, are going to intersect again as the Tenkan-sen was going down during the last 2 trading days (3).

It’s necessary to note that the Chinkou Span crossing the price chart up through the body of the black candle gives some hope to the bulls. The prices may get inside the Cloud in the near term aiming to reach its upper border.



Chart. Daily USD/CHF

The greenback jumped last week reaching 82.70/84 area on Friday and at the beginning of Monday’s trade. The pair USD/JPY is now trying to break up through 6-month downtrend resistance and 55-day MA in this zone.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that if US currency manages to close the day above these levels, the bullish reversal will be confirmed. The specialists note that such outcome is quite likely after the triple divergence of the daily RSI.

If USD/JPY advances, it will be poised to climb to 85.94 (September maximum) and 88.00/05 (200-day MA).



Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the strong “doji” candle formed on Friday shows that the pair GBP/USD is attempting to form new interim base in the 1.6000 zone.

The specialists note that it’s necessary to take into account that the MAs are pointing to a long position and the Chinkou Span obtained some bullish momentum from October’s candles, while the August resistance is likely to become a support level.

According to Mizuho, investors should buy on the dip to 1.6050 stopping below 1.5950 as the analysts expect pound to rise to 1.6175 and then 1.6300.



Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the big “hammer” formed on Friday on the EUR/JPY candle chart is regarded as the third and the last in the series and marks an interim minimum. The low of the “hammer” lies at 111.04, that is below 2 previous downside tests. The specialists note that the daily close above the top of a large daily Ichimoku Cloud was able to change momentum from bearish to bullish.

According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy on the dip to 112.50 stopping below 111.50 as the analysts expect the single currency to rise to 113.50 and then to 114.40.


Chart. Daily EUR/JPY