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The pair GBP/USD has now survived 3 attempts of the bears to break down its 20-day MA at 1.5976. As a result, technical analysts at Commerzbank see further consolidation as quite possible.

At the same time the specialists warn that there are significant downside risks as long as pound trades below Fibonacci resistance at 1.6185, so the 20-day MA may be tested again and sterling can drop below 1.5950 to 1.58.

GBP/USD is currently trading in the 1.6080 area.



Chart. H1 GBP/USD

Analysts at UniCredit SpA expect British pound to appreciate. Their assumptions are based on the fact that investors may increase demand for sterling regarding it as safer currency than euro is. The specialists are citing the deteriorating of the euro zone’s debt crisis, the concerns about Irish banking sector its possible implications for the 2011 Irish budget in particular.

According to UniCredit, when European investors choose sterling they theoretically remain in the European Union hedging themselves against euro-zone-specific risks. The strategists think that pound may rise to 84 pence per euro and $1.62.



Chart. H4 EUR/GBP

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Analysts at Citigroup Inc. note that the single currency that showed last week the biggest 5-day loss versus the greenback since August may rebound to its January levels. The specialists believe that investors will react optimistically to any bailout for Ireland will and the concerns about the debt crisis in the euro area will ease. As a result, the market’s attention will once again focus on the Fed’s monetary stimulus measures and US dollar will resume trading within a downtrend.

Citigroup specialists regard the current decline of euro that’s close to its recent minimums as a good buying opportunity. The European currency’s expected to climb to $1.45 at the beginning of 2011 that’s above November 4 high at $1.4282.

It’s necessary to point out that Ireland had the highest euro-region budget deficit in 2009 at 14.45% of GDP. Irish authorities are currently trying to convince financial markets that the country doesn’t need any external financial help but the other members of the EU pressure it for accepting aid in order to calm volatility that made borrowing costs of indebted European countries surge to record maximums.



Сhart. H4 EUR/USD

Technical analysts at Forecast Pte expect the greenback to rise to the 7-week maximum versus Japanese yen. The specialists note that the pair USD/JPY closed last week above 82.19 yen level representing resistance of descending trend line that connects the maximums of May 5, June 4 and September 17.

US currency broke through its 50-day MA at 82.67 yen that used to cap so far its upward movements. The short-term trend for USD/JPY is bullish, momentum is up and the pair is free to climb to the 100-day average at 84.47 yen.

Dollar’s rate added 3.6% from a 15-year minimum at 80.22 yen hit on November 1. Last week the greenback gained 1.6% showing its biggest advance since September 17. The US currency’s MACD was today at 0.0753, above the signal line that was found at minus 0.2724, that’s another sign that dollar is going to advance against yen.



Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Currency strategists at UBS AG increased their one-month forecasts for the greenback as US economic data improves, while the concerns about debt crisis in the euro area strengthen making investors prefer dollars.

The forecast for US dollar versus the single currency in a month was lifted up from $1.40 to $1.30 per euro. The pair USD/JPY is now expected to trade at 85 yen in one month, while the previous estimate was at 80 yen.



Chart. H4 EUR/USD



Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. expect the single currency to lose on the prospects of Ireland’s getting bailout from the EU.

The specialists believe that investors’ concerns about the problems in Irish banking system and the austerity measures have reached the point when they don’t believe that the country will be able to get out of the crisis on its own. The European Union and the European Central Bank are worrying about of the risk of contagion.

The uncertainty will disappear only when there will be a clear decision on Ireland. Until it happens euro will stay under downward pressure and the greenback will be poised to advance.



Chart. H4 EUR/USD

The greenback recovered from 15-year minimum at 80.20 rising yesterday to the 83.00 area and closing the day above the 55-day MA at 82.70/87, September minimum and the 6-month downtrend channel. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that such move of the rate means that it’s going to keep climbing.

According to the specialists, if US dollar advances, it will manage to get to 85.94 and 88.00/02 (200-day ma). The declines of the US currency will be limited by the 20-day MA at 81.49.



Chart. H1 USD/JPY

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Currency strategists at Okasan Securities are certain that the pair USD/JPY will remain strong for some time. The specialists claim that the greenback may rise versus Japanese yen during the coming weeks to 86.00 that’s the level reached right after September currency intervention of Japanese monetary authorities.

According to Okasan Securities, technical levels with plenty of stop-loss buying orders are found at 84.00, 85.00 and 86.00.

Among factors helping US dollar strengthen there are declining commodity prices, increasing US Treasury yields and the deepening concerns about the euro-zone’s debt crisis.



Chart. H4 USD/JPY