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The single currency advanced yesterday and managed to overcome 1.4080 and 1.4160 resistance levels. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that this means that the pair EUR/USD is poised upwards towards 1.4445 and 1.4580.

If euro keeps gaining, resistance levels will be found at 1.4217/64 (December and early January minimums) and 1.4445/1.4580 (the double Fibonacci, 2010 maximum and 2-year resistance line).

If the European currency declines, support levels will lie at 1.3943/1.3880 (20-day MA and 3-month support line).



Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Analysts at BNP Paribas claim that the Bank of Japan may decide not to follow the Federal Reserve that announced new $600 billion bond purchases and refrain from further monetary easing at the end of its 2-day meeting tomorrow. The specialists justify their assumptions by the fact that yen didn’t surge after the FOMC statement yesterday.

The strategists claim that the amount of the Fed’s purchases was almost in line with market expectations and Japan’s currency is in a better situation than before.

As the yen failed to strengthen, the Bank of Japan will now just announce the details of its purchases of real-estate investment trusts and exchange-traded funds. The purchases will be part of a 5 trillion-yen ($62 billion) fund unveiled by Japanese monetary authorities last month.



Chart. H4 USD/JPY

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During the maintenance the server and the website of the company will not be available 4 a.m. GMT to 5 a.m. GMT. After that all the services will be available as usual. We apologize for any inconvenience caused.

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Weekly GBP/USD

British pound kept rebounding last week as well. Sterling was helped mainly by the fundamental factors that weakened the greenback.

The bulls made the pound’s rate advance almost to 1.6300, although they didn’t manage to test the nearest resistance at 1.6400 (peak formed by the recent upper border of the Cloud).

It may happen that this week the buyer will continue pushing the pair upwards as the Preceding lines (1, 2) have already started to switch the Cloud and Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (3, 4) went up.



Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

Daily GBP/USD

The uncertain trade at the beginning of the last week led to the formation of 2 “high waves”. However, the further dynamics of the pair was fully determined by the bullish sentiment and as a result Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen formed the “golden cross” (5) and began rapidly growing.

The preceding lines as well pushed the Ichimoku Cloud up (1, 2). It’s necessary to note that Senkou Span A (1) is still poised firmly upward.

There was, however a “dark-cloud cover” formed on Friday that may lead to the consolidation at the current levels.



Chart. Daily GBP/USD

Weekly USD/JPY

Last week the bulls were extremely active on the USD/JPY market managing to confirm the reversal character of the “reversed hammer” that was formed on the candle chart 2 weeks ago. That is why bullish sentiment may continue dominating the market this week.

Never the less, the general trend is still descending (the Preceding lines are falling (1, 2)). In addition, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (3, 4) are as well directed downwards.



Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

Daily USD/JPY

On the daily chart the prices have already entered Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4) that means that the market is willing to start rebounding.

Taking into account the fact that all the lines of the Indicator are directed horizontally (1, 2, 3 and 4), it’s possible to assume that the pair USD/JPY may advance this week. If the bulls manage to hold above the Turning line (3), the next resistance level will be found at the opposite border of the channel – the Standard line (4).



Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Weekly USD/CHF

The greenback’s attempt to rebound versus Swiss franc was interrupted right at the beginning of the week. The prices didn’t manage to hold above the Turning line (3), even despite the desperate efforts of the buyers.

The downtrend is still in place and is likely to remain as the bears regained confidence and resumed lowering the rate to renew the recent minimums.




Chart. Weekly USD/CHF

Daily USD/CHF

On the daily chart it’s possible to see that the bulls weren’t strong enough to push the rate to the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. It’s clear that this was the main reason why the rate dropped consolidating below the Standard line (4).

The “golden cross” (5) may be soon cancelled and the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (3, 4) will switch downwards in the short term. In this case the rate will keep declining.



Chart. Daily USD/CHF

Technical analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. expect Japanese currency to climb to new record maximum at about 72 yen per US dollar during the first half of 2011. The forecast of the strategists is based on the Elliott Waves analysis.

The greenback weakened against yen in the first, third and fifth Elliott Waves correcting in the second and the fourth ones.

The first wave began when Japan ended in 1973 yen’s peg to American currency after US President Richard Nixon suspended the gold standard for the dollar in 1971. The initial wave pushed the yen to the maximum at 175.5 yen per dollar in October 1978 before the second wave pulled it down to 278.50 yen per dollar in October 1982. The third wave ended when yen rose to the all-time high at 79.75 in April 1995, while the 12-year fourth wave, where a “triangle formation” appeared, finished when the yen hit minimum at 124.16 yen in June 2007.

The continuing currently fifth wave will end in the second quarter of 2011, claim the Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities specialists on the theory that US dollar bottoms out at an average cycle of 64 months. The last stage could end in October 2011 as it may take 198 months for the fourth and fifth waves to finish, as it took the second and third ones.

The pair USD/JPY lost about 50% during the first wave and dropped from April 1990 maximum at 160.35 yen to the record minimum at 79.75 yen. The analysts believe that Japanese currency may target 75 yen level, which is about 50% below the August 1998 maximum at 147.63 yen or 72 yen representing one-fifth of 360 yen.

After the yen’s 40-year rally ends next year, the currency will begin a long-term decline against the dollar. The yen may target 124 per dollar level reached when the “triangle” pattern was completed in the fourth wave.

As yen decreased to yen 147 per dollar during this formation it may get down to 150 yen per dollar in 2015-2016.



Chart. Monthly USD/JPY

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