Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Hi All,

Not sure if this is alraady here or not, getting a bit messy in this thread. Anyway the article from the ABC guy on IIF is on their website. Not a bad read, but nothing really positive in there. Quite a few of you guys and gals got a mention. Sorry it is on 4 different pages so i have only supplied a link to the article.

ABC News: Betting Millions on Iraqi Money

Hope to hear more good news soon,

Hayden

Voices of Iraq : Economy-Symposium
Books : nakr2004 on Monday, September 18, 2006 3:05 PM-BT

A symposium on the role of banks in the economic reform process
Baghdad - (Voices of Iraq)
The symposium, organized by the Ministry of Industry and Minerals Iraq today, Monday, under the title "The role of banks in the process of economic reform," investment potential and the adoption of the policy of democratic foundations of carrying transparency and to achieve economic reform.
The symposium organized by the Central Committee for economic reform in the ministry today, Monday, to pass legislation that will help to restructure the institutions in all its forms to complete the process of economic reform in Iraq.
A statement by the Ministry said today that the seminar discussions focused on the banking activities of commercial banks and their role in the process of economic reform.
The seminar was attended by representatives of the Iraqi banks and the ministries of planning, agriculture and public managers and experts of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals.
It was presented during the symposium concepts behind them by the banking and the role of the advancement by the economy, They stressed the importance of the role of banking facilities in support of policies and the application of the various industrial and agricultural sectors, and others.
The statement said that the symposium participants warned that the absence of economic reforms leading to high costs and low business investment and low growth rates, employment and income in addition to the widespread phenomenon of non-national and regional stability.
The symposium addressed the role of the Central Bank of Iraq in achieving economic stability. He pointed out that Central is making a big effort to achieve a stable monetary policy would contribute to the strengthening of the Iraqi economy and rebuilding through a series of steps including a daily auction of foreign exchange to the bank and new legislation provides a legal Astakla.

http://www.google.com/translate?u=http://www.aswataliraq.info/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=index&startn um=31&langpair=ar|en&hl=en&ie=UTF8

Cheers!
DayDream

Originally Posted by ezcash

Opps sorry everyone...I apologize... forgot what thread we're in... Nenos not going to be happy

I gave up. I am just banning as I go.

Originally Posted by member99

I have a PhD in Economics thank you very much, and no I don't have any resources in the Iraqi Governement but in my mispent youth I worked at the Cincinnati Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, so I do have a little background in currency exchange.
It can't happen because there is no present prospect for the economic output to justify it's present level, much less a revaluation. People look at OIL and think everyone in the middle east is rich, but it ain't so. On the grand scale of things, these are not rich countries and even though their outputs per capita are high, in general their governments waste a huge percentage of it on corrupt or just badly run economies.
Yes, US and UK investors put moneyu overseas, not the same thing, though. These are both huge economies, and very stable, which makes takes a lot of risk out of inveting here, but also takes the risk premium out, ie: how risky is it to buy PG? (not very, they've paid a dividend every quarter for nearly 100 years, and increeased it every quarter for about 10). Almost all foreign investments by people in the US and Europe are small parts of the overall portfolio and in reality operate pretty much as hedge positions against short term dips in domestic markets.
People also try to compare this to the Kuwaiti Dinar, also a bad comparison. Kuwait's currency was suspended and in market terms almost worthless WHEN THAT COUNTRY WAS OCCUPIED BY A HOSTILE FORIEGN POWER, but both before and after that conflict, Kuwait had an operating and moree or less stable basis. Oil is less than 1/2 of the export of Kuwait before the war, is less than 45% now, but oil is Iraq's only export of note and their capacity, while underutilized, isn't going anywhere until the government finds a way to keep the insurgents from blowing up pipelines and well heads.
Face it, the reason the Dinar is not floated, or allowed to freely trade, is because it would collapse in the market, not because they don't want it to go up.

Member99, with an Economics degree, PHD whatever, I am sure that your arguments here are based on information and research that you have done. Otherwise your arguments would fundamentally be flawed, as with any argument from any person. However if you would like to set yourself apart from the rest of us so called economists, then why don’t you take a read of some other economists points of view and tell us why they are wrong. And for that matter why don’t you take on probably the best of them all Frankel. If you have not read his info here is the link to his solution for Iraq, printed in 2003. Also have attached a link to his personal web site that has all of his publications etc on all other topics. Rather than tell us something “Just Can’t Happen”, maybe look at the other side and tell us what needs to be done to make it happen. If someone like Frankel is going to say that the dollar should be at a level that he has given in this report, then he must not agree with you, so how is he wrong?

http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~jfrankel...s_Currency.pdf

General Categories of Frankel's Publications

Now Frankel has done quite a bit of work with the IMF and written papers on many different aspects. And I have to admit I have not seen anything from any economist as to how to deal with a massive increase in the exchange rate of a country. If anyone has anything like this I am sure there are many of us out there who would like to read it so please give us some links to have a look.

Cheers to All, Hayden

Originally Posted by boogirl

Hummm, I was wondering which one he was.

Sorry about this mess, mods, I'll quit now... Look for a big fat bonus in your pay envlope this week.

hummm, that would be nice. But I believe I will start another latest on the Dinar News Thread Soon.

Originally Posted by member99

I have a PhD in Economics thank you very much, and no I don't have any resources in the Iraqi Governement but in my mispent youth I worked at the Cincinnati Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, so I do have a little background in currency exchange.
It can't happen because there is no present prospect for the economic output to justify it's present level, much less a revaluation. People look at OIL and think everyone in the middle east is rich, but it ain't so. On the grand scale of things, these are not rich countries and even though their outputs per capita are high, in general their governments waste a huge percentage of it on corrupt or just badly run economies.
Yes, US and UK investors put moneyu overseas, not the same thing, though. These are both huge economies, and very stable, which makes takes a lot of risk out of inveting here, but also takes the risk premium out, ie: how risky is it to buy PG? (not very, they've paid a dividend every quarter for nearly 100 years, and increeased it every quarter for about 10). Almost all foreign investments by people in the US and Europe are small parts of the overall portfolio and in reality operate pretty much as hedge positions against short term dips in domestic markets.
People also try to compare this to the Kuwaiti Dinar, also a bad comparison. Kuwait's currency was suspended and in market terms almost worthless WHEN THAT COUNTRY WAS OCCUPIED BY A HOSTILE FORIEGN POWER, but both before and after that conflict, Kuwait had an operating and moree or less stable basis. Oil is less than 1/2 of the export of Kuwait before the war, is less than 45% now, but oil is Iraq's only export of note and their capacity, while underutilized, isn't going anywhere until the government finds a way to keep the insurgents from blowing up pipelines and well heads.
Face it, the reason the Dinar is not floated, or allowed to freely trade, is because it would collapse in the market, not because they don't want it to go up.

Interesting,

Some good points, but like most, only partially true. Kuwait was back to pre-war production in 1993, and on target for 3.5 mbpd by 2008, so I don't know where you got your figures from of less than 45% today? Yes, oil is only export, whereby 95% of all income is derived to run country, so it is indeed a different situation than in Iraq, but nothing can be compared to Iraq.

Agriculture is Iraq's ace in the whole, and in time, this much neglected asset has been ignored under Saddam, but it is worth billions to the region as Iraq has two major rivers and a rich and fertile region which is hundreds of square miles in size. Oil reserves will soon be proven to be larger than Saudi reserves, which is their only export as well, so overall, Iraq has a far greater reserve value than all the others in region, and oil is the bottom line, and as far as rich, Saudi's had a budget surplus after all countries expenses were paid, including billions in raods and new buildings, refineries, etc. of almost $50B solely due to oil price increases.

Not rich, have you been to any of these countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, hell, even Qatar is swimming in cash reserves and exploding with economic growth, so oil IS reason for wealth in the region just as it will be for Iraq.

Good luck to all, Mike

Originally Posted by member99

And your point is? Of course I know there is a lot more to building an economy than outputs, but you do have to have the outputs. Iraq has just been forgiven tremondous amounts of debt, good as far as it goes, but that also means they won't be getting a lot of market rate investments in their country anytime soon, funny, people don't like loaning new money to the guy that just stiffed them. THey will of course get the investments, when they domestic situation is stable, but that's not happening right now, and I don't see it happening soon. And these investments will more than likely come from international aid organizations like the World Bank and the IMF, investments that come with a lot of strings attached, one of which is of course currency controls. Inflation is 70% there, do you see a rational way to upvalue the currency of a country where inflation is 70%, Unemployment is 50% and there is what amounts to a civil war going on? A country with only one export and where in large cities the electric only works 5 days a week? At what point, or on what date are you willing to see that this is not going to happen? You all stayed up overnight the other day, so you obviously expected it over the weekend, you're all watching it every minute now, so you must think it's imminent, so when will you face reality? First of October? First of the Year? I'm trying to be rational and polite, but when do I get to say "I told you so"?

Interesting,

It is well understood that what was debt under Saddam is what is being forgiven, and the new Iraq has hundreds of millions in new lines of credit from these same countries who you say won't want to lend them a dime again?

As far as your 70% inflation, this is not annual, it is a spike caused be refined oil and gas shortages and black market created increases, so this mean nothing on an annual basis, it is short term spike. It was also caused by oil subsidies that are being phased out as part of neighboring countries forgiving debt, which has already been agreed on, so what other country can you think of with barely any debt, and sitting on one of the largest oil reserves in the world?

Once again, Iraq is a highly complex one of a kind economic hotbed, so there is nothing you or anyone can compare it to. The Kurdistan region is already booming with international investiment flowing in, and the same will happen in Baghdad once security is back in control, and it is getting better every day, regardless what you may see on TV, I was in Kurdistan before and after Saddam, and it is far better now than before, just visit Kurdistan site at Kurdistan - The Other Iraq to see what is really happening in much of Iraq.

Good luck to all, Mike

Thanks KingPau,
This shows the activity. But there hasn't been any from Sept.12 on,
according to the site you posted. Just thought it interesting.

Forex Street. The Foreign Exchange Market

Also the last update was
Last update: 14/09/2006 20:39

World Currency Rates
WORLD CURRENCY RATES DETAILS
USDIQD Open High Low Close
27 Jun 06:00:00 1469 1469 1469 1469
28 Jun 06:00:00 1469 1469 1469 1469
02 Aug 05:45:00 1476 1476 1476 1476
03 Aug 06:00:00 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3
03 Aug 08:45:00 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3
07 Aug 06:00:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
07 Aug 08:45:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
08 Aug 05:45:00 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3
08 Aug 08:45:00 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3
09 Aug 05:45:00 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3
09 Aug 08:45:00 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3
10 Aug 06:15:00 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3
10 Aug 08:45:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
14 Aug 05:45:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
14 Aug 08:30:00 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3 1476.3
15 Aug 06:00:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
15 Aug 08:30:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
16 Aug 05:45:00 1475.2 1475.2 1475.2 1475.2
16 Aug 08:45:00 1475.2 1475.2 1475.2 1475.2
17 Aug 05:45:00 1475.2 1475.2 1475.2 1475.2
21 Aug 06:45:00 1475.2 1475.2 1475.2 1475.2
22 Aug 06:00:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
22 Aug 09:00:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
23 Aug 05:45:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
23 Aug 08:30:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
24 Aug 06:00:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
24 Aug 08:45:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
28 Aug 06:00:00 1477.2 1477.2 1477.2 1477.2
28 Aug 09:30:00 1477.2 1477.2 1477.2 1477.2
29 Aug 06:00:00 1477.2 1477.2 1477.2 1477.2
30 Aug 06:00:00 1476 1476 1476 1476
30 Aug 08:45:00 1476 1476 1476 1476
31 Aug 05:45:00 1476 1476 1476 1476
01 Sep 09:15:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
04 Sep 05:45:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
04 Sep 08:30:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
05 Sep 06:00:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
05 Sep 08:45:00 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2 1476.2
06 Sep 05:45:00 1476 1476 1476 1476
07 Sep 05:45:00 1476 1476 1476 1476
11 Sep 05:45:00 1476 1476 1476 1476
12 Sep 05:45:00 1476 1476 1476 1476
12 Sep 08:45:00 1474 1474 1474 1474
13 Sep 05:45:00 1474 1474 1474 1474
13 Sep 09:00:00 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2
14 Sep 05:45:00 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2
14 Sep 08:30:00 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2
15 Sep 08:30:00 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2
18 Sep 05:30:00 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2
18 Sep 08:30:00 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2 1474.2

Originally Posted by eric69

mod. sory for my involvement in this. please cleen this up sorry

Doing this right now.

Originally Posted by PhilHelmuth

I have been trying to find anything on Iraq having more oil reserves than SA.

This is an article I posted earlier. Hope this helps.....


http://www.rolclub.com/iraqi-dinar-d...tml#post108256




Kurdistan discovery may tempt oil majors

07 September 2006 (AME Info FZ LLC)

International oil companies including Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, BP and Chevron are positioning themselves to exploit Iraq's rich oilfield potential once the country agrees to legislation protecting their investments. The attraction lies in more than 500 geological structures believed to contain huge volumes of oil and most structures have yet to be drilled and at present almost all Iraq's oil is produced from just 20 fields. The majors could commit $20 billion into rebuilding and developing Iraqi oil and gas fields but moves so far have been delayed by the deteriorating security situation as well as a lack of definitive legal guidelines for foreign investment.
US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman pressed for a clear legal framework during a July visit to Baghdad declaring it would be instrumental in attracting foreign investment to Iraq's oil sector.


Raising output

The government has said it aims to produce 3.5 million b/d of oil by the end of next year and 4 million b/d by the end of 2008 and up to 8 million b/d by the end of 2010. The targets are considered by outsiders impossible to achieve without multi-billion dollar investment from international oil companies. Most companies have already identified areas of the country particularly in the southern provinces where they would like to explore. France's Total is looking at Majnoon and Bin Umar, Spain's Repsol at Nasiriyah and Shell at Ratawi. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's oil advisor Thamer al-Ghadhban says negotiations could take up to a year to conclude once rules of investment are established but he suggests talks should run alongside parliament's discussions about legislation. A complicating factor is the question of regional power with politicians split according to religious and ethnic loyalties. Kurds, for example, have been used to a large measure of autonomy even during Saddam's time. The constitution is still vague on whether the country's mineral wealth is controlled by central government or by the regions in which it is located.


Autonomy push

Kurdish leaders are pressing for their autonomy to be enshrined in the country's laws. However, this could set a marker for others also seeking much looser ties with central government in parts of the country which contain some of Iraq's richest oilfields. The legal situation has not prevented three smaller European oil companies starting wildcat exploration in Iraq's less troubled Kurdish region. The three are Canada's Heritage Oil, the UK's Sterling Energy and Norway's DNO with the latter already making a commercial discovery at Tawke in the Zakho region close to the Turkish border. Reports suggest that the field could contain a reservoir of 100 million barrels. Plans are going ahead for production of up 20,000 b/d to start in 2007 rising to a potential 200,000 b/d. Officials say the northern region has proven reserves of 3.6 billion barrels and possibly as high as 45 billion barrels. Such attractive statistics may also lure larger international oil companies to the region if Iraq's promised hydrocarbon law is not passed as promised by the end of 2006.