Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 25, 2011

GBP/JPY strongly broke above 120.14 to continue wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored red in the chart). The whole 5-wave cycle started from 117.22. Now the targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.49-120.14-119.58 (these are waves 3 and 4).
Resistances:
- 122.23-24 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 retracement
- 123.42 = .618 ret
- 123.87 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the 5th wave from 119.58 - this wave is not developed, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (10-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (30-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 25, 2011

Below 1.0573 AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave B (colored magenta in the chart), that is part of impulse wave C of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0231. Wave C will continue if the price breaks above 1.0573, otherwise its end is at 1.0573.
As far as the corrective subwave is concerned, its targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0231-1.0573.
Supports:
- 1.0442 = .382 retracement
- 1.0402 = .50 ret
- 1.0362 = .618 ret
But if the price keeps moving up and breaks above 1.0573, the targets above will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0573-1.0427, 1.0427-1.0494-1.0446.
Resistances:
- 1.0554 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0606 = XOP
- 1.0621 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0638 = contracted objective point (COP)

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still going up, that's why it's prefereable to open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (30-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Count for January 25, 2012

Market Overview
Yesterday we saw this major pair pushing by 40 pips higher before this currency had found resistance at 0.8390 and started pushing by 80 pips lower to 0.8311, where EUR/GBP test 200 SMA Support but didn't have strength to continue pushing lower. Euro-pound finished New York session breaking 100 SMA at 0.8341. Today on the opening of the European session EUR/GBP has started moving higher, so we can expect continuation of an uptrend for the next few days.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8269 (S2) 0.8299 (S1) 0.8318 (PP) 0.8348 (R1) 0.8378 (R2) 0.8397 (R3) 0.8427

Important News
(EUR) German Ifo Business Climate
(EUR) Italian Retail Sales m/m
(GBP) MPC Meeting Minutes
(GBP) Prelim GDP q/q
(GBP) BBA Mortgage Approvals
(GBP) Index of Services 3m/3m
(GBP) CBI Industrial Orders Expectations
(GBP) ECB President Draghi Speaks
(ALL) WEF Annual Meetings

Elliott Wave Analysis for EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP finishes B wave of the bigger c wave at 0.8311 and starts 5 waves up for final c wave. According to our wave rules and assuming that wave 3 will be 161.8 of wave 1, we can project our target points for the 3 Wave with our Fibonacci extension (0.8311-0.8351-0.8334) to 0.8401.

Trading Forecast
Based on Elliott Wave Rules we can expect the trend to go higher today. That is why we can come to a conclusion that we should open a LONG position at 0.8350 with Stop Loss at 0.8330 and Take Profit at 08401

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 26, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed five waves of medium term uptrend (colored red in the chart). The whole 5-wave cycle started from 117.22 and may end at 121.98. However if the price breaks above 121.98, we'll have an extension - in this case a new A-B-C cycle will be moving from 119.58 (this is the base of wave 5). Now the targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.49-120.14-119.58 (these are waves 3 and 4), and 119.58-121.98-121.16.
Resistances:
- 122.23-24 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 retracement
- 122.64 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.42 = .618 ret
- 123.56 = OP
- 123.87 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-121.16-121.78.
Supports:
- 121.27 = COP
- 120.96 = OP
- 120.45 = XOP
- 120.16 = .382 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 26, 2011

Above 1.0573 AUD/USD is developing impulse subwave С (colored magenta in the chart) from 1.0427, that is part of impulse wave C of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0231. On smaller scale the former subwave has its own subwaves of smaller degree - these are A, B and C (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0444.
The targets above as of now are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0573-1.0427, 1.0427-1.0540-1.0444, 1.0444-1.0619-1.0588.
Resistances:
- 1.0638 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0696 = COP
- 1.0740 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0763-69 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
However if the price reverses to the downside to correct the uptrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0444 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still going up, that's why it's prefereable to open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-60 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/JPY Elliott Wave Count for January 26, 2012

Market Overview
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair with great confidence reached the level of 65 pips and formed the new high at level 78.27. Further the USD/JPY pair started the descending movement from this resistance level. The news concerning the negative financial situation in the USA influenced the exchange rate of the pair. As a result the yen has strengthened against US dollar. This major currency tested for a several times 50EMA support level before it has been broken down and then continued the bearish movement. At the moment the price is testing the 100EMA support level. In case the level 77.50 is passed through it will be possible to consider the 200EMA the next support level located near the point 77.20.
Support and Resistance
(S3)77.15 (S2)77.43 (S1)77.59 (PP)77.87 (R1)78.15 (R2)78.31 (R3)78.59

Important News
(JPY) CSPI y/y
(USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
(USD) Unemployment Claims
(USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m
(USD) New Home Sales
(USD) CB Leading Index m/m
(USD) Natural Gas Storage
Elliott Wave Analysis for USD/JPY
Today the USD/JPY pair finished the wave 3 (A, B, C) correction within the bigger wave 4 at level 77.52 and started the movement to the final wave 5. According to our wave rules and concerning that the wave 5 is equal to the wave 1 we can probably define the target levels proceeding from the amount of the pips that were passed. As the wave passed 77 pips we can determine our target by adding 77 pips to end of the wave 4 at level 77.52. In this case we can see the prospective wave 5 at level 78.29. For stop loss level we can use the end of the wave 1 at level 77.31.

Trading Forecast
Taking into account Elliott Wave Rules we can expect that today the trend will go upwards. Thus, it is recommended to open long positions at level 77.70 with Stop Loss at level 77.31 and Take Profit at level 78.29.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, January, 26 / 2012


The announcement of the Federal Reserve monetary policy data has brought a few surprises during the first game of the year.

Although there will be no change in interest rates, there is no need to postpone any decision to stay very close to zero from mid 2013 until 2014.

The situation undergoes changes in terms of controlled inflation, even after some last year’s money infusions and so-called "Operation Twist", as well as and the creation of jobs indicating the slight but slow improvements.

The first conclusion is that the Fed for many years has not been seeing the signs of economic recovery and with the measures announced today left the possibility of a new stimulus for the economy by injecting money (QE).

This fact can be observes as well in the Fed’s report concerning its forecasts of economic growth for this year defined in the range from 2.2 to 2.5%. For the next year the growth is expected to be between 2.8 and 3.2%.

The announcement was followed by the overall decrease of the dollar. Once again the US dollar lost its advantages as an investment currency and as a hope for investors.

In this regard, we believe that the dollar acting in this way provides the greater freedom for the various activities against it. In other words, regardless the negative news from Europe, the euro exchange rate could be affected without being influenced by other currencies.

Of course, the NYSE shares closed with a good profit and continued its growth till the end of the day. The Dow Jones reached its highest level since July 2011.


The ounce of gold has also "flew" after the Fed’s announcement and by the end of American session in a couple of hours collected more than $ 60 in quotes.

As for the currencies, the dollar was the one that stood in the breach. Almost immediately the euro has broken the area of �‹�‹1.31, completing 190 points between the daily minimum and maximum. The pound and Swiss franc followed the same tendency.

From the European point of view, there is nothing new. The same speeches, twists, elapsed time, Greece which is expected to set out the side and the debt, or bankruptcy, out of the euro and return to the drachma. Following the IMF, the European Central Bank, banks and European finance committees are playing with fire.

The European session on Thursday reflects what has happened the night before. The DAX 30, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 shares were very successful. The first brought the index to its highest level in the end of July, with a slight profit taking during the last few minutes, but remaining the bullish trend.

Of course the European currencies rose significantly, although the price curves across the EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / CHF pairs indicate the possible trend exhaustion.

The agenda includes information required in the weekly Thursday durable goods orders and jobless rates at 8:30 ET. At 10:00 the new turn of home sales will take place.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GOLD - Bullish Outlook, Juanary 26, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






GOLD



The ounce of gold appreciated strongly over $60 yesterday, reaching the maximum of 1,719 during the European session, this increase happened as the Federal Reserve Committee acted in accord to its commitment to keep interest rates at levels exceptionally low until the end of 2014.
The price of gold could undergo some corrections, maybe the American session close can be interpreted as profit-taking after record intraday trade with huge profits. However, in the medium term gold is expected to continue its uptrend.
At the technical level we can see that gold has broken its long-term downtrend, which began in September 2011, and now is in a short-term uptrend. As for the Pivot levels, gold passed through the third weekly resistance (R_3), making corrections and retracing to continue its way up to 1,790 dollars per ounce.
Momentum indicators and Range show signs of a possible downward correction.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 30, 2011

GBP/JPY reversed to the downside from 121.98 to develop corrective wave B of medium term uptrend. This wave is colored magenta in the chart, and is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree that is developing from 117.22. Now, this B wave has four subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with corrective subwave 4 developing from 119.95.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-121.16-121.81, 121.81-119.95-120.67.
Supports:
- 119.66-60 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and .50 retracement
- 119.52 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.04 = .618 ret
- 118.81 = OP
However if the price reverses to the upside to continue the uptrend the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.95, 121.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.95.
Resistances:
- 120.73 = .382 retracement
- 120.97 = .50 ret
- 121.20 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.89 = COP
- 123.42 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 30, 2011

AUD/USD has reversed for a correction of impulse wave C of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart) that started from 1.0427. This wave, however, is part of impulse wave C of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0231.
As far as the corrective move goes, its targets are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0231-1.0687, 1.0427-1.0687, and expansions off 1.0687-1.0591-1.0669, 1.0669-1.0596-1.0666.
Supports:
- 1.0557 = .50 retracement
- 1.0548 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0526 = .618 ret
- 1.0514-13 = confluence area of .382 ret andXOP
- 1.0475 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
However if the price breaks above 1.0687 to continue the uptrend we'll calculate the resistances using Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0573-1.0427.
Resistances:
- 1.0769 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0838 = SXOP

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still moving up, so it's prefereable to open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-30 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Count for January 30, 2012

Market Overview
The EUR/JPY pair was following the bullish movement for the last 10 days. Today after the Asian has been opened session we could observe the slight descending movement of the pair and the breakdown of the 50EMA support at level 101.29. Then we could observe the breakdown of the 100EMA support at level 101.06 in early European session. We think that today the EUR/JPY pair is likely to brake 200EMA resistance level during the New York session. Also we expect the continuation of the downtrend for the next few days.
Support and Resistance
(S3)100.20 (S2)100.57 (S1)100.81 (PP)101.18 (R1)101.55 (R2)101.79 (R3)102.16
Important News
(EUR) German Prelim CPI m/m
(EUR) EU Economic Summit

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis
The EUR/JPY pair completed the wave B of the bigger wave (B) at the 101.44 level, and started the 5th wave within the final C wave. According to our wave rules and assuming that the wave C is equal to the wave A we can define our target points with Fibonacci Extension (102.19-100.56-101.44) to the 99.80 level. For Stop loss level we can use end of wave B at the level 101.44.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules today we can expect the downward movement of the trend. That is why SHORT position at level 100.70 with Stop Loss at level 101.44 and Take Profit at level 99.80 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com