Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 18, 2011

The USD/JPY pair is testing the support level near 82.30-82.40. Another attempt was unsuccessful. At the moment the short-term viewpoint at the pair is still bullish.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/USD candlestick analysis for January 18, 2011

Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/USD currency pair formed the Shooting Star candlestick, which is a downside signal. At the moment the pair is rolling back after a sharp downfall. However, the viewpoint to the pair is still bearish.
This candlestick was formed amid sharp rollback of the 1.2869 level. However, the bears started increasing their influence near the resistance level 1.3497 (December 2010 high) and a rebound took place.
Breakout of the Fibonacci level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to the support level 1.3080, where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
On the other hand, if the resistance level 1.3497 is broken, short positions should be closed as it will lead to an increase up to 1.3786.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, January 18, 2011


The main indexes of the Asian stock exchanges are traded with a neutral trend this morning. Rates rose this morning in Hong Kong while the Hang Seng Index gained 0.8%, in leading the real estate sector which is expected to register a nice rise in 2011. The Shanghai stock exchange is clouding the Asia trend, while the Chinese index is weakened by 0.3%. Tokyo registered a slight increase of 0.3% today while the Kospi Index in South Korea is now registering an 0.2% increase. The Australian index added 0.3%.
Europe's stock exchanges closed yesterday with slight rate drops, due to the deliberations of the European Union's ministers of finance regarding the strategy to fight the continent's debt crisis. At the end of the trade day the London stock exchange dropped by 0.3%, Paris retreated by 0.2% and Frankfurt closed the German stock exchange without change.
The European ministers of finance began just an hour ago deliberations regarding the strategy to battle the debt crisis in the area, following Germany's backing down somewhat from its objection to increasing the emergency fund and following Portugal's insistence that it can handle the crisis without receiving an aid package.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 18, 2011



4-hour timeframe




Overview:
The euro is still developing a buy signal with target level at 1.3298; however, correction movement is continuing as well. The formed signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price got over the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3606 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3824. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3210), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are narrowing and directed up, which indicates corrective movement as well. The MACD is descending, indicating the current corrective movement.


Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3606, and further to 1.3824. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3210. Resume upward trading after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

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USD/CAD Rebound,Upward Movement , Janaury 18, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






USD/CAD

The recent decrease wave encountered four trade days ago the strong support level of 0.9850 and since then the pair is having difficulty in breaking the level and continuing its journey south.
It is recommended to make sure that on the daily closing the pair's price will be closed above the support level of 0.9850 to be on the safe side. Closing below this level will cancel the opportunity of buying immediately.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 18 to January 21, 2011



_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.0219
Weekly - R2 = 1.0119
Weekly - R1 = 1.0003
Weekly Pivot = 0.9903
Weekly - S1 = 0.9787
Weekly - S2 = 0.9687
Weekly - S3 = 0.9571






_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1192
Monthly - R2 = 1.0724
Monthly - R1 = 1.0476
Monthly Pivot = 1.0008
Monthly - S1 = 0.9760
Monthly - S2 = 0.9292
Monthly - S3 = 0.9044





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 18, 2011








The EUR/USD has declined further, supposedly forming a corrective structure of the 4th wave of the whole uptrend section. At the same time the price decreased by 120 pips and tested the estimated correction level 38.2%. In general this 4th wave looks quite complete at the moment, including wave set abc. Based on this we can expect resumption of the growth with likely retesting of the 1.3460 level. However, the price can still form a five-wave structure in the range of the current downside movement.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 19, 2011

The GBP/JPY is moving within corrective wave 4 of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 128.29-132.48, 130.43-132.48, expansions off 132.48-131.62-132.14.
Supports:
- 131.45 = .50 retracement, already hit (!)
- 131.28-21 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 retracement
- 130.88 = .382 ret
- 130.75 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 130.38 = .50 ret
- 129.89 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-131.40-130.43.
Resistances:
- 133.54 = OP
- 134.66 = XOP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is now above the zero level, therefore the current price is not suitable for long positions. Now it's better to wait until the price retraces to the oversold area (15-20 pips) to consider long positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 19, 2011

The AUD/USD has confirmed wave C (colored red in the chart) of medium term uptrend by breaking above 1.0019. This wave consists of subwaves A-B-C (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave C still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803 and expansions off 0.9803-1.0019-0.9855, 0.9855-0.9967-0.9897, and 0.9897-1.0004-0.9960.
Resistances:
1.0067-71-78-82 = confluence area of two objective points (OP), expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 retracement
- 1.0133 = XOP
- 1.0148 = .764 retracement
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up starting from 0.9897 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level. The Oscillator is now moving from the overbought, the zero level is 15 pips away, and the oversld is 35-45 pips away from the current price.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 19, 2011

The USD/JPY pair is declining further from 83.67 after it has successfully broken the 82.35 support level. As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD technical analysis for January 19, 2011

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 0.9980, 1.0212, 1.0290
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is bouncing off after refreshing a multi-month low. The viewpoint to the pair is still bearish as the downtrend remains. As mentioned before, the breakout of the 0.9890 support level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9711 as the next target.
Moreover, this breakout has provided certain interest to selling and quite significant interest to purchase from corporate market participants.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9980 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0212. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

This week the EUR/GBP pair continued trading down. Earlier the EUR/GBP dropped after it could not break the support level at 0.8650.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, January 19, 2011


Index rises have been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, led by the stock of the technology sector due to reports by Apple and IBM, which beat analysts' predictions. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange climbs 0.3%, while the Hong Kong and Seoul exchanges climb about 0.8%.

In Europe, the Eurozone finance ministers pledged to strengthen the safety net for debt-laden countries, hinting that they are not under immediate pressure to act to limit the budget crisis in the Eurozone. The meeting has caused Europe's stock markets to rise to their strongest levels in two years, with the London FTSE rising by 1.2%, the Frankfurt stock exchange climbing 0.9% and Paris ascending by 0.8%.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, production in the New York area speed up this month, due to growth in exports and local demand, this according to reports by the New York Fed's Empire State index. The index rose this month to a level of 11.9 points, as compared to December's 9.9 points. Growth had been more moderate than predicted by analysts, who expected that the index will reach the 12.5-point level in January. We remind the reader that an index above zero points to expansion in production.

The global energy agency has warned yesterday that the sharp rise in oil prices poses a meaningful threat to global economic recovery. The agency had raised its oil demand prediction for 2011 after the global economic recovery has led to the highest demand for crude oil in the last three decades.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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GBP/USD wave analysis for January 19, 2011







During yesterday's trading the GBP/USD pair continued to advance and gained 150 pips. At the same time the upward movement was located within the estimated 3rd wave (b, or 3rd) forming inner wave structire of its 5th wave. If so, this 3rd looks pretty complete, which implies certain decline before the pound tries again to test the 1.6055 level, reached yesterday. Moreover, MACD divergence indicates possible decline.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 19, 2011






In general, as expected, the EUR/USD pair resumed growth and managed to test the 1.3460 level, reached earlier. At the same time the 4th wave of the current uptrend section can be considered complete; the euro is probably continuing to advance in the range of the 5th wave. Moreover, given the wave dimension of the uptrend and the 5th wave structure we can suppose that targets for the whole upside movement of the pair might be located near 1.3490-1.3510.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


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AUD/USD Awaiting the Right Moment to enter Short , Janaury 19, 2011 (Daily Strategy)








AUD/USD

The Australian dollar – American dollar pair continue to fight the strong trend line which accompanies the pair since the trend set out on its way, about seven months ago. During the last five trade days you can clearly see the pair flirting with the line but having difficulty closing under it. Therefore, a daily closing under the line will serve as a trigger to enter in short on the pair, or can we expect to continue with successive upward to 1.0200 and there enter short.
A complete break of the line is expected to pave the way downwards and towards the next significant support level at 0.9690. The exit goal from the sell position can be placed near the last minimum level which was set around 0.9290American dollars to the Australian dollar.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 20, 2011

The AUD/USD is developing corrective wave B of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the corrective downwave are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9803-1.0076, 0.9855-1.0076.
Supports:
- 0.9940-39 = confluence area of .618 and .50 retracements
- 0.9907 = .618 retracement
If the uptrend continues and the price breaks above 1.0076 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803.
Resistances:
- 1.0082 = .618 retracement
- 1.0148 = .764 retracement

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level. The Oscillator is now below the zero and has already crossed it once. The level to watch for long positions is 0.9940-39.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com