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Strategists at RBC Capital Markets believe that the greenback may be supported in case more than one Federal Reserve policy maker object to resuming asset purchases at today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

In addition, the specialists advise investors to pay attention to the details of the Fed’s decision as a suggestion that there will be gradual increases of the monetary stimulus depending on the country’s economic performance may also help US dollar advance.



Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Analysts at Barclays Capital note that the single currency was trading versus the greenback this week between 1.3860 and 1.4060. According to them, stops should be placed on the both sides of this channel.

The pair EUR/USD will lose bullish momentum only below 1.3860, claim the specialists. If euro manages to get above 1.4080 and then 1.4160, it will be able to climb to 1.45.



Chart. H1 EUR/USD

The greenback went down versus Swiss franc ahead of the FOMC decision that will be announced at 18:15 GMT.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair USD/CHF will find support firstly at 0.9771, and then at 0.9713.

In their view, US dollar is going to recover to the 55-day MA in the 0.9921 area. If the pair closes above these levels, it will manage to rise to the parity and then to Fibonacci retracement at 1.0118 and 1.0330.



Chart. H4 USD/CHF

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Strategists at UniCredit believe that the amount of the Federal Reserve’s bond purchase announced today will be equal to $300-$500 billion.

In their view, the pair EUR/USD may get below 1.40 right after the FOMC meeting.

The specialists regard such move of the rate as the opportunity to buy euro expecting that the single currency will rise to 1.43 in the fourth quarter.



Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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The Federal Open Market Committee announced yesterday that the Federal Reserve will spend $75 billion a month to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries over the next eight months through June. According to the estimates of American central bank, the planned bond buying will have approximately the same economic impact as cutting short-term interest rates by 0.75 percentage points. The FOMC kept its benchmark interest rate target for overnight interbank loans at 0-0.25%, where it has been since December 2008.

The two main goals of US monetary authorities are to reduce unemployment that has reaches 9.6% and fight deflation threat. It’s necessary to ensure that inflation that is now at around 1% on annual basis moves towards the Fed's informal 2% target.

The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed that the asset purchases should spur the country’s economic growth through lower borrowing costs and higher stock prices. The policymakers also left open the possibility of extending the program in case the GDP and inflation don't rebound during coming the months.



Chart. Daily EUR/USD

The greenback fell sharply trading extremely volatile right after the Fed’s statement. The pair EUR/USD hit minimum at 1.3996 and maximum at 1.4190 during one hour. However, the rate soon managed to stabilize in range 1.4100/50 before climbing today above 1.42.

Analysts at Wells Fargo claim that Investors anticipated the asset purchase program to be $500 billion over 5-6 months, while the Federal Reserve announced one for $600 billion over 8 months. So, it’s possible to say that US central bank was careful not to disappoint the market which would have caused large dollar advance and not to engage in a shock-and-awe campaign of massive Treasury purchases which would have led to a sharp and sustained dollar loss.



Chart. H1 EUR/USD

Analysts at Citigroup Inc. believe that there are strong chances that the Bank of Japan will follow the Federal Reserve and will do more monetary stimulus to support the national economy. The specialists believe that the Japanese central bank will as well increase this week asset purchases as part of its quantitative easing program that will go together with its foreign-exchange intervention campaign.

According to Citigroup, Japan will act even though dollar managed to appreciate a bit after the Fed’s decision. The pair USD/JPY is currently trading in 81 yen area, while on November 1 it hit 15-year minimum at 80.24. The strategists note that it’s necessary for the BOJ to ease influencing the market in the similar way as the Federal Reserve did. Otherwise, yen may resume its gains and renew maximums.

The European Central Bank, on the other hand, made clear that it’s not going to follow the Fed. As for the UK, Citigroup believes that British fundamentals don’t require easing as much as the growth and inflation data in US or Japan do.

The Bank of Japan will meet on November 4-5 instead of November 15-16 as it was scheduled before.



Chart. H1 USD/JPY