Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 11, 2016





In Asia, Japan will release the leading indicators. The US will release some economic data such as Federal Budget Balance, 10-y Bond Auction, and Crude Oil Inventories. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 109.52.
Resistance. 2: 109.30.
Resistance. 1: 109.09.
Support. 1: 108.82.
Support. 2: 108.61.
Support. 3: 108.40.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 12, 2016





GBP/USD continues trading slow in a sideways range, but still trapped below the 200 SMA and dominated by the bearish bias. If pair does another rebound at the current levels and spikes towards the resistance zone of 1.4549, it could break that level for further advance to the 1.4635 level. The 200 SMA remains flat and the MACD indicator is at the negative territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4549 / 1.4635
H1 chart's support levels: 1.4430 / 1.4316


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4430, take profit is at 1.4316, and stop loss is at 1.4542.


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Daily analysis of USDX for May 13, 2016





USDX is currently doing a rebound above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, and we can see another rally toward the 94.35 level on a short-term basis. However, this bullish trend could get invalidated when the Index does a breakout of the May 11th lows, which should push the price lower below the 200 SMA. The MACD indicator is reaching overbought territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.35 / 94.61
H1 chart's support levels: 94.06 / 93.80


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.34, take profit is at 94.61, and stop loss is at 94.09.


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Technical analysis of Silver for May 15, 2016





Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver dropped lower to $16.80 levels on Friday before pulling back. The metal is trading higher at $17.30 levels at this moment, expected to face resistance at $17.50 levels. Please note that $17.50 is also the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the drop between $18.00 and $16.60 levels respectively. The metal is expected to produce a meaningful correction towards $16.00 levels going forward, as depicted on the 4H chart view. It is hence recommended to sell on rallies, with stop at $18.50 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at $16.60/80 levels, while resistance is at $17.60 levels respectively.


Trading recommendations:
Look to sell rallies through $17.50/60 levels, stop above $18.00 levels, target is open.


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Global macro overview for 17/05/2016





Global macro overview for 17/05/2016:
The Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes have been released overnight. The RBA has expressed concerns in two main fields of the Australian economy: inflation and unemployment. According to the minutes from its May meeting, where the cash rate was cut to 1.75%, the RBA was worried about ongoing inflation trends as the recent reading was way below the RBA's projections. This means the Australian economy might be edging towards the deflationary territory as the data cannot be explained entirely by temporary factors. The second RBA concern is the slowing employment growth in the first quarter of 2016. The current unemployment rate is at the level of 5.7%, but the low wage growth is supporting the job insecurity as well. In conclusion, economists are now betting the RBA will continue to cut the cash rate after being surprised by the depth of the latest inflation reading. For example, the Commonwealth Bank is predicting two more cuts in 2016 taking the cash rate to 1.25%, with some other large institutions such as JP Morgan forecasting the cash rate at 1% or lower.


Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the daily timeframe. After the breakout below the brown trendline, the bears have managed to push the price below 50% Fibo and it looks like the next important technical support at the level of 0.7212 might be tested soon as well. Please note that the current technical resistance at the level of 0.7382 is the key level to the upside.


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Technical analysis of Silver for May 19, 2016





Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver dropped lower towards $16.70 levels yesterday before pulling back higher. The metal is seen to be trading at $16.81 levels at the moment, looking to rally further at least towards $17.60 levels before reversing lower. Please note that the probability still remains that the metal hits fresh highs at $18.40 levels, if prices stay above $16.60/70 levels. If not a new high, at least a countertrend rally is expected towards $17.60 levels going forward. It is hence recommended to remain cautiously bullish or remain flat for now looking to sell at higher levels. Immediate support is seen through $16.60 levels, while resistance is at $17.60 levels respectively.


Technical recommendations:
Remain flat for now or cautiously bullish with stop at $16.50 levels.


More analysis - at instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 20 - 2016





Wave summary:
EUR/NZD, as has been the case for EUR/JPY, failed to rally after the break above minor resistance at 1.6675. This has prolonged the corrective decline from 1.6931, but as long as important short-term support at 1.6479 is able to protect the downside, the upside will remain in focus.
To ease the current corrective downside pressure, a break above minor resistance at 1.6625 and, more importantly, a break above resistance at 1.6704 is needed. A break above the latter will call for a return to the 1.6931 high and higher to 1.7237 and above.


Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.6535 was hit for a small loss, but we will re-buy EUR upon a break above 1.6625 and place stop at 1.6475 expecting to be able to raise it soon.


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Daily analysis of USDX for May 23, 2016





The index still trades sideways to higher levels, consolidating gains above the support at 95.22, where we expect to see a rebound to test the next resistance placed around 95.68 area. A breakout above it will open doors to reach new highs, the first target lies at 96.14 level. MACD indicator, however, is entering into negative territory, so be cautious when adding more long orders at the current stage.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.68 / 96.14
H1 chart's support levels: 95.22 / 94.89


Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.68, take profit is at 96.14, and stop loss is at 95.20.


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Daily analysis of USDX for May 24, 2016





USDX is trading below the resistance zone of 95.68, but the intraday structure remains sideways. However, an acceleration below the 95.22 level will open the doors for a decline toward the 94.89 level, where a rebound is expected, as the 200 SMA on H1 chart can act as a dynamic support. MACD indicator is supporting further weakness on an intraday basis.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.68 / 96.14
H1 chart's support levels: 95.22 / 94.89


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.68, take profit is at 96.14, and stop loss is at 95.20.


More analysis - at instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 25, 2016





In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release some economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Flash Services PMI, HPI m/m, and Goods Trade Balance. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 110.68.
Resistance. 2: 110.46.
Resistance. 1: 110.25.
Support. 1: 109.98.
Support. 2: 109.76.
Support. 3: 109.55.


More analysis - at instaforex.com