Thread: "RollsRoyce . . . June 21 Stuff!"

Come on people let's be honest with ourselves. While atmscmd's theory of a small return on his initial investment may be completely wrong just based on the articles about returning the dinar to it's previous rate, his theory of a slow grow has a much better chance of happening than any sudden overnight reval.
There have been multiple rumors claiming it's a done deal and will happen by such and such day. I have never seen one of these rumors bare any fruit. At this point if you believe any of the rumor mongers on this or any other forum you are, at the very least, naive, and at the worst brain dead.

Please try to look at this objectively.

I bought in on the rumor that the dinar would be $.20 by the spring of 2005. Oddly enough, it never happened.

later in 2005 through 2006 there was the fab 5 pushing their done deal. nothing came of this either.

By mid to late 2006 sgs was saying it was a done deal and nothing came of it. In fact, the movement of the exchange rate didn't start until almost 2 months after that done deal rumor.

Everyone wrote off the movement as the CBI attempting to buy back as much dinar as they could before the "reval"

As the rate continued to fall and the news came out about the budget being based on the rate of 1260 the theory suddenly turned to "once they reach 1260 then we will see the reval". this theory looked promising to some when they continued to hold the rate at 1260.

Now the rate has moved past 1260 and we look to be on track for the 1000 to 1 stated as the goal for the end of the year.

Now, tell me which makes more sense. A sudden reval to 1:1 or 1:$3.31 or whatever number you want to throw in there.

or

as stated by the CBI, 1260:1 by mid-year, 1000:1 by the end of the year followed by the continued increase in value for the following 2 years (again stated by the cbi) until the dinar is on par with the dollar?

Does it not seem strange that the moves planned have been 210- 260 dinar in a set period? at that rate the dinar will be at (approximately) 750:1 by mid 2008, 500:1 by the end of 2008, 250:1 by mid 2009, and 1:1 by 2010.

It's amazing how that fits into the CBI's stated goals.

If I am wrong in any of my analyses please let me know, an I don't want arguments based on rumors or feelings, but straight fact.

Thank you.

Originally Posted by ATMCSMD

I don't 'need' anything. I am merely stating my opinion as are you and everyone else. Why is it that if someone's opinion is OK with you then it's all good but if you disagree with another person's opinion then you have to put them on ignore and accuse them of trolling? I'm tired of the freaking DOUBLE STANDARD around here!!!! It's BS.

Putting people you disagree with on ignore?!?!? How closed minded is that?

Like I said who are you to call BS if don't agree then leave.

Hi, You keep coming up with these comments of getting some return (small) in a couple of years time without any concrete answers to back it up, yes I appreciate your opinion just the same as everybody elses, but please answer a few questions just for once, dont you think it will benefit the Iraqi people with a revalue ASAP, are you saying that de****e the HCL happening in the near future, the FIL due to be in place so that foreign investment will commence, the pension plan passed, more or less all Iraqs debt has been forgiven (China came on board today) and you still say it will not revalue for a couple of years, ON WHAT FACTS DO YOU BASE YOUR ARGUEMENT???.

Ya dude put your money where your BS is and give us proof of this theory.

Originally Posted by GerttiDinar

Come on people let's be honest with ourselves. While atmscmd's theory of a small return on his initial investment may be completely wrong just based on the articles about returning the dinar to it's previous rate, his theory of a slow grow has a much better chance of happening than any sudden overnight reval.
There have been multiple rumors claiming it's a done deal and will happen by such and such day. I have never seen one of these rumors bare any fruit. At this point if you believe any of the rumor mongers on this or any other forum you are, at the very least, naive, and at the worst brain dead.

Please try to look at this objectively.

I bought in on the rumor that the dinar would be $.20 by the spring of 2005. Oddly enough, it never happened.

later in 2005 through 2006 there was the fab 5 pushing their done deal. nothing came of this either.

By mid to late 2006 sgs was saying it was a done deal and nothing came of it. In fact, the movement of the exchange rate didn't start until almost 2 months after that done deal rumor.

Everyone wrote off the movement as the CBI attempting to buy back as much dinar as they could before the "reval"

As the rate continued to fall and the news came out about the budget being based on the rate of 1260 the theory suddenly turned to "once they reach 1260 then we will see the reval". this theory looked promising to some when they continued to hold the rate at 1260.

Now the rate has moved past 1260 and we look to be on track for the 1000 to 1 stated as the goal for the end of the year.

Now, tell me which makes more sense. A sudden reval to 1:1 or 1:$3.31 or whatever number you want to throw in there.

or

as stated by the CBI, 1260:1 by mid-year, 1000:1 by the end of the year followed by the continued increase in value for the following 2 years (again stated by the cbi) until the dinar is on par with the dollar?

Does it not seem strange that the moves planned have been 210- 260 dinar in a set period? at that rate the dinar will be at (approximately) 750:1 by mid 2008, 500:1 by the end of 2008, 250:1 by mid 2009, and 1:1 by 2010.

It's amazing how that fits into the CBI's stated goals.

If I am wrong in any of my analyses please let me know, an I don't want arguments based on rumors or feelings, but straight fact.

Thank you.

seeing this is your first post we have a place to hash it out "against the grain" perspectives......try this thread seeing you havnt taken the time to read anything!!

thanks for your thoughts and your post. That is exactly what I mean by sitting on the fence. your analysis makes sense, and states exactly what CBI has stated, which is why i flop over to the slow grow side of the fence a lot of times.

My thoughts on the overnight RV, automatically reverting back to its previous level, well, these thoughts are fueled by the laws presently being passed/discussed/sent to parliament, etc. especially the hcl and if the dinar ever hit the forex, i would think it would RV before then. Hence...i'm on a see-saw with this thing.

I choose to be optimistic (most of the time, at least) with this whole thing, though. IT IS ALL ABOUT CHOICE. we can choose to bash and be pessimistic, negative, cruel, even downright ugly sometimes or we can choose to dream big, hope for the best, pray for the best, etc.

Originally Posted by duck2000

seeing this is your first post we have a place to hash it out "against the grain" perspectives......try this thread seeing you havnt taken the time to read anything!!

Excuse me? I've probably read more than you have or will. As for your post, nice rebuttal. Reminds me of when a dem, after saying Bush has handled the war all wrong, is asked "what would you have done differently?". The only reply you get is, "Bush did it wrong!".

The difference, Gertti, is that you have a theory to back up your opinion while ATMCSMD just calls us all stupid and makes up "I told you so" scenarios to gloat over how stupid he figures we'll look in future. That's not expressing an opinion, it's just being rude and childish.

Not that I'm buying your theory but it does have merit. It does fall in line with what's been happening so far - BUT - it doesn't take into account all the things that the Iraqi's (official) have been saying. We all know there are conflicting statements, announced actions postponed, old articles presented as new and contradicting what's just been said...

My point is that you have formed your theory about this and we have formed ours. Nobody will know until it's all over so, by all means disagree, but there's no room for behaviour like ATMCSMDs and some others.

Originally Posted by cooldolphins

thanks for your thoughts and your post. That is exactly what I mean by sitting on the fence. your analysis makes sense, and states exactly what CBI has stated, which is why i flop over to the slow grow side of the fence a lot of times.

My thoughts on the overnight RV, automatically reverting back to its previous level, well, these thoughts are fueled by the laws presently being passed/discussed/sent to parliament, etc. especially the hcl and if the dinar ever hit the forex, i would think it would RV before then. Hence...i'm on a see-saw with this thing.

I choose to be optimistic (most of the time, at least) with this whole thing, though. IT IS ALL ABOUT CHOICE. we can choose to bash and be pessimistic, negative, cruel, even downright ugly sometimes or we can choose to dream big, hope for the best, pray for the best, etc.

Thanks Dolphin. All I asked in post was for everyone to take an objective look at the situation. I too hope for a reversion to the previous rate soon but everything seems to be pointing towards a slow increase. I think we will know for sure which way it is going to go if the HCL is passed and foreign investors are allowed in without a reval.

This is *AN-OPINION-PIECE* = [I.M.O.] & My read on the piece below is that they are just covering their respective Ar$$'s with this article . . . They have been *discussing* / & beating this to death for months . . . THERE CAN'T BE MUCH / IF ANYTHING / LEFT TO DISCUSS . . .

I see a VOTE very, very, quickly . . . in fact it may already have been voted on / If not / I doubt it will be tonight / it's already the middle of the night over there / although, I suppose / it wouldn't surprise me . . . At times they gather votes by messenger to peoples houses / & over the phone . . .

Here's an example of what I mean; "The official refused to identify the day of the draft sent to parliament, but he guessed that the parliament a draft bill oil scheduling next week." In the first paragraph we learn that they got it today @ 3:21 PM . . .

All my people, Indy in Paris & Joe & her Brothers in Kurdland are asleep . . . I won't hear from them till 5 am'ish Fri / they are all Catholics / not Islams / so they are active on the Friday / Sabath / but very few others in the area are active . . .

If / when / I hear anything of interest I'll be around . . .

It might be worthwhile to watch all M.E. news sources closely . . . something might slip out . . .

Originally Posted by RollsRoyce

An official at the Oil Ministry said : "The government sent a draft bill to Parliament oil voices Baghdad-Iraq 21 / 06 / 2007 3:21:12 pm

An official source at the Oil Ministry, Khmbes, The government has sent a draft bill to Parliament oil after an agreement between the central government in Baghdad and Kurdish officials on the controversial points. The official said the Independent News Agency (Voices of Iraq), who requested anonymity, "an agreement was reached between the central government and between the territorial government CBE on all points of the outstanding differences on the oil." The official added that the draft "has been sent to parliament for discussion by the members of parliament and vote."

The official refused to identify the day of the draft sent to parliament, but he guessed that the parliament a draft bill oil scheduling next week. The oil law one of four significant laws expected that the Iraqi government legislation of new laws, are in addition to the oil .. The law abolishing the Baath Party and the Law on Local Elections, a review of the Iraqi constitution, which will greatly Mwadba Iraqi government to push the political process forward. The American administration often pressured the government Nuri al-Maliki towards accomplishing these laws as soon as possible. The official said that the two parties had reached a "compromise solutions on all the points that were in dispute." He added that the points of disagreement "limited fund imports of oil and discovered fields and undiscovered and disagreements on the national oil company."

Expected Charge to witness Parliament sessions "long and extensive discussions on the law." He said, "Parliament has the legal right to add or repeal or amend any clause." The territorial government had demanded the Kurdish significant powers given the right to deal with foreign companies in the field of investment and the granting of licenses to private companies in the Kurdish area directly without recourse to the government position that there should be a representative of the government center in the Northern Territory while the government demanded Baghdad to oversee the contracts signed with a representative of the Kurds in Baghdad.

As the text of the new law to transform the National Oil Company to the holding independent. The new law grants equal powers for prospecting and extraction of oil and awarding of contracts for oil to each of the Oil Ministry and the National Oil Company and the regional bodies that will be created by law and gives foreign companies the right to determine their own knowledge to be the central government. The law provides for the collection of oil revenues in the Consolidated Fund after which the distribution of these returns on Iraqi governorates, which will be represented at the federal oil and gas

http://www.aswataliraq.info/look/art...=1&NrSection=2

Best to all . . . even the Nays . . . RR . . .