Thread: Archive News - Iraqi Dinar Think Tank - 01/10/09 - 27/03/10

Fate of first Arab democracy hangs in balance as Iraqis go to the polls

There are no greater supporters of democracy in Iraq than the printers: for weeks they have been working flat out to satisfy the demand for elections posters. In Baghdad alone, 150 of them expect to earn £4 million by covering the dusty streets of the capital with man-size images of the candidates, with their promises of a better future.

“In two weeks I’ve pocketed what I would normally make in six months,” says Omar Hamid, owner of the al-Sima printing press in the Mutanabi neighbourhood. “I’m very happy with democracy. If it were up to me we would have elections every year.”

Not all Iraqis are so enthusiastic about tomorrow’s poll, but how they vote will help to determine if the first proper Arab democracy will live or die. It will also shape the legacy of the US in the region. Will Iraq transform into a model democracy, as George W. Bush envisaged, or will it sink into chaos? The answer will tell President Obama whether he can begin bringing American troops home this summer.

The country is certainly more stable than at the height of the sectarian war three years ago, but its survival as a functioning democracy is not assured. The insurgency remains the greatest threat: an average of ten civilians die every day in politically motivated violence — a far higher number than in Afghanistan.

Last night al-Qaeda signalled that it remained a potent threat. Announcing a “curfew” on election day, the terror network warned that anyone who defied it would face the wrath of “Allah and the weapons of the Mujahidin”.

To protect voters tomorrow, the Iraqi Government is conducting the largest security operation in its short history. Almost one million people — including 190 women — will be guarding 19 million voters. Armed guards are visible on most street corners, creating a far more militaristic scene than anything witnessed under Saddam.

The new Iraqi security forces have a self-confidence to rival the old dictator’s bluster. “We are ready for any unexpected operations,” said MajorGeneral Abdul-Amir Rashid. Cars will be banned from the roads to prevent bombings. Voters must walk to polling stations or take boats if they live in the marshes of southern Iraq.

The long-term stability of the country will in large part depend on who is picked as prime minister and how much support he will have. One candidate on everyone’s list is Nouri al-Maliki, the current office-holder. He gets credit for reducing violence and turning Iraq into a state that is, at least, half-functioning, after years of anarchy.

Nonetheless, his enemies depict him as weak and indecisive. They say that he has been relying on the hated American military. They also remind voters of his lowly background: he was a bead-seller in the public market in Damascus during years in exile. In the week before the election, a doctored photo of Mr al-Maliki made the rounds by e-mail here. It showed an unshaven Prime Minister wearing a primitive headscarf sitting on a blanket surrounded by his gaudy wares. If re-elected, Mr al-Maliki is likely to continue the current course of improving security without fundamentally reforming the corrupt system of government that has developed over the past few years. The Berlin-based Transparency International ranks Iraq as the fourth most corrupt country in the world. Almost nothing happens without a bribe.

Will Mr al-Maliki win? Iraqi opinion polls are little better at predicting the future than ****-readers in the bazaar. He certainly has a good chance. His most obvious rival is Ayad Allawi, a former Prime Minister. He is a poor campaigner and has spent much of his time during the election outside Iraq.

Still, his popularity is rising. He stands for the most important trend in Iraqi politics: the return of nationalism. “Dr Allawi is a candidate who really does not care about being Shia or Sunni,” said Salam Mohammed, a carpenter. “He is an Iraqi, nothing else.” He is also a British citizen, but his supporters tend to ignore that.

A trained physician, he is a Shia Muslim who co-operated with the Sunni-dominated Baath party of Saddam — before its henchmen tried to kill him in his home in Kingston-upon-Thames. That gives him a certain credibility on both sides of the sectarian fence. He is also a fierce critic of Iranian influence in Iraq. Both Dr Allawi and Mr al-Maliki will have to strike alliances with smaller players to form a government. Their main rival is an amorphous bloc of Shia groups known as the Iraqi National Alliance.

It favours greater religious influence, but most of its leaders are weak or tainted by past incompetence and violence. Still, its deep roots in the Shia community will ensure that it is likely to get a say in who will lead Iraq. Some of its leaders hope for their own elevation. No party is expected to win outright. Heated coalition talks are likely.

If the new parliament cannot agree on a prime minister and starts to drift, Iraq will face a serious crisis. Many problems remain unresolved and threaten to undermine stability unless tackled soon. Sunni Muslims have laid down arms and come into the political process after boycotting the last election, but unless they are given some influence they will continue to feel disenfranchised and could return to the warpath.

Shias, for their part, may be the winners of the sectarian war but they have not resolved their internal dynamics. Many leaders vie for power and their rivalry could lead to new violence.

An even greater threat, though, is posed by the latent conflict between Sunni Arabs and Sunni Kurds in northern Iraq. Both are increasingly well armed and have yet to agree on a border between them or who owns the oil.

Yet, on the streets of Baghdad, the gloom of recent years is forgotten, for the moment at least. A four-day holiday has been called, and residents are taking full advantage.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cl***51959.ece

High turnout on 1st day of out-of-country vote

Iraq polling centers opened on Friday March 4 in 16 countries worldwide marking high turnout on first day of polls.

On the first day of out-of-country voting, Iraqi expatriates queued in front of polling centers holding their credentials and the lists of candidates.

Out-of country voting started officially in Australia at midnight on Thursday Baghdad time. On 4 am, out-of-country voting started in Canada and the United States and consequently in the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Turkey, Germany, Austria, Netherlands and Britain.

Out-of-country voting for Iraqi Parliamentary elections is taking place as well in Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon.

Voting will be carried out along 10 hours a day, reported the IHEC committee in charge of out-of-country voting.

119 electoral centers and 764 polling stations were set for out-of-country voting divided among 90 residential districts in 59 cities abroad.

http://www.alsumaria.tv/en/Iraq-News...ntry-vote.html

Originally Posted by Seaview

Statement on media silence

At a time when UNHCR is blessed Electoral all efforts for the success of the electoral process, by virtue of paragraph (First) of Article (5) of the Act to amend the Electoral Act No. (26) for the year 2009 and paragraph (1) of Section II of the campaign No. (19) for the year 2009, the Commission calls upon all political entities and candidates to stop all campaigning and the Declaration (silence the media) before seven o'clock on the morning of Saturday, March 6, 2010, the succession will take legal action against violators.

Appreciate your cooperation for the success of the electoral process

Council Office

http://nahrain.com/d/news/10/03/10030***.htm

Iraq in media silence ahead of elections

At 7 am today on March 6, 2010, media electoral campaigns have stopped after it took hold of the country for about a month.

Iraq is now in the stage of media silence according to the decision of Independent High Electoral Commission which banned all campaigns for political coalitions running for elections starting today.

http://www.alsumaria.tv/en/Iraq-News...elections.html

Oil decided to appoint "all" graduates of institutes of oil for the years 2005-2009

Said a spokesman for the Ministry of Oil Thursday, the ministry decided to appoint all graduates of institutes of oil for the years 2005-2009, each according to specialization in the oil companies of the Ministry across Iraq.

He said Assem Jihad told (Voices of Iraq) that the department "has decided to appoint all the graduates of institutes of oil for the years 2005 to 2009, each according to his specialty in the oil companies of the Ministry across Iraq," adding that "the distribution functions will take into account the issue of housing near the workplace".

The Jihad that "appointments will be in the form of meals within the ministry's plan for 2010 will be announced the first stage of the appointments in this March 11," noting that the covered "Review of the Ministry to complete their transactions in one month."

Jihad said the ministry "will need all the relevant energies available in Iraq after Bramha big contracts with international companies to increase oil production, where the ministry will become a big workshop and will absorb all the graduates of institutes of oil, whether in Baghdad or Basra or Kirkuk and other governorates."

http://radionawa.com/Ar/NewsDetailN....513&LinkID=155

The Washington Times expects that Iraq faces a long battle to form a new government

The newspaper quoted U.S., the Washington Times about some consensus that it is likely that Iraq faces a long battle to form a new government after the elections.

The newspaper in its edition on Saturday that Iraq might witness acts of violence, which would block the president's plan to withdraw U.S. troops in the month of August next.

The newspaper went on to early round of voting three bombings that killed dozens of people despite the fact that Iraqi forces deployed adequate numbers of full force in an attempt to protect polling stations.

http://radionawa.com/ar/NewsDetailN....923&LinkID=151

A team of international monitors the electoral process in Iraq at invitation of the Commission

by a team of international election observers consisting of six legislators, former control aspects of the Iraqi elections to be held on on Sunday, at the invitation of the Independent Higher Commission for Elections in Iraq.

"Said team leader Douglas Roland in a press release from the institute on Saturday received a copy of the Tigris Radio said the team will focus its oversight activities on the functioning of the Electoral Commission for elections in Iraq and the regulatory الھيئات instead of monitoring the performance of the polling stations.

Ronald explained that "in view of the small size of the team will have to focus on a very narrow focus in order to be effective مساھمة team, but at the same time that the Group will supplement the information in consultation with Iraqi organizations to monitor the elections, political parties and civil society organizations."

The team consists of observers to different countries as Sweden and the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States جميعھم where they received special training in election observation in addition to خبرتھم direct elections.

The institute said that the observers are from Sweden Per Garton; and Anthony Simpson of the United Kingdom (كلاھما former members of the European Parliament); and Paul de Feuillé of Canada; Ojm Slattery of the United States; and Scott Klag of the United States; and team leader Douglas Roland of Canada , Honorary President of the Institute of international election observers.

The Institute pointed out that Roland headed an international team in January of 2006 for an analysis of the post-elections in December 2005."

http://www.radiodijla.com/cgi-bin/ne...?id=2010-03-06

Iraqis living abroad continue the voting process for the second day in a row

Continue to Iraqis living abroad of voting on Saturday for the second consecutive day, after closing the Electoral Commission for elections in the first round of elections, ballot boxes on Friday evening as the timing of each state.

A member of the committee supervising the elections abroad Iyad Kanani, "it was closing the polls in all 16 countries where elections were Iraqis living for the first day of the legislative elections yesterday, which will continue until tomorrow, Sunday."

Description Kanani turnout at the polling stations as good, indicating that the Commission received a mail yesterday afternoon the first and second halves of the register of voters in Australia for matching and analysis of voters as the first state in which the opening and closing the polling stations of other countries.

On the other hand sources said the Electoral Commission in the ratio of the initial vote that took place on Sunday, has exceeded the 65 percent is on the rise.

http://www.radiodijla.com/cgi-bin/ne...?id=2010-03-06

Closure of border crossing points between Iraq and neighboring countries until the completion of the electoral process

The Director of Information Anbar Police Command pilot Rahim Zabin said Saturday that border crossing points between Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia would be closed until the completion of the electoral process on Sunday.

Zabin said that the border crossing points between Iraq has been beefed up border monitoring points all the other preparation to prevent any terrorist infiltration into the Iraqi border.

He added that troops from the border guards and emergency regiments deployed along the border with neighboring countries were able to impose control over all areas and fully secured.

He pointed out that the security forces and placed surveillance cameras to monitor the movement of heat and strengthened border military patrols in the desert areas and inspect continuously.

He added that U.S. forces will be assumed secure air cover and uncover the earth and the exchange of security information with the border guards when monitoring any suspicious movement.

On the other hand Turkey has decided to close the port Khabour only border with Iraq before the polls opened on Sunday in general elections that the Turkish side believes it's vital for the stability of Iraq.

According to the Turkish authorities responsible for border crossing points that the port will be closed from Saturday night until next Monday morning in anticipation of the voting process, which starts on Sunday across Iraq.

The statement added that he would not allow anyone to cross over the period of closure with the exception of emergency vehicles and the main border crossings and only when necessary.

The Habur artery only trade between Turkey and northern Iraq, is one of the main outlets for the movement of commercial traffic between the Middle East and Europe via Turkey.

http://www.radiodijla.com/cgi-bin/ne...?id=2010-03-06

Jalal Talabani, referring to keep his job and says the next government is different from the Maliki government

Hinted President Jalal Talabani to keep his job after the elections on Sunday, indicating that the next government will differ radically from the Maliki government disbursed ", with a long list of change it is to share Talabani expectations.

He Talabani said in an interview with the agency, "BBC" news on the belief that "the next government will not be a government of national unity formula of national unity have failed because they were impeding the work of the government, and this time the government will be a majority government, and of course will be jointly Kurdistan Alliance," according to he said.

And during the interview, Talabani played down the significance of the electoral threat posed by the "movement of change," adding that "the MDC has been unable to reap more than sixty-five of the seats, which he says that" the Kurds will win in the new Council of Representatives."

Meanwhile, the MDC said it could succeed in winning second place between the Kurdish parties and the payment of the National Union to third place, thus making it impossible to undermine Talabani hopes to obtain a great site in the central government in Baghdad, according to the reported movement.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had refused at a news conference Friday that the next government will be government of national unity, said: "We must adopt the principle of majority and minority, and appoints the ministers away from quotas and choose competent people, The post of minister is not political, but a specialist and I stress this command ", he said.

http://www.radiodijla.com/cgi-bin/ne...?id=2010-03-06

Iraq set for years of Sunni-Shiite tensions: Sunni leader

A powerful Sunni politician Saturday warned sectarian tensions will continue in Iraq for years and may deepen if the new government fails to end discrimination in the Shiite-dominated army and police. Iyad al-Samarraie, the parliamentary speaker, said that while the violence between Sunnis and Shiites which killed tens of thousands had decreased, unease would simmer if Sunday's general election did not deliver a just government.

"It very much depends on the policies of the new government," the 64-year-old engineer told AFP in an interview in his Baghdad home on the banks of the river Tigris.

"A wise government can reduce it within a year. But an unwise government might even make it worse," said Samarraie, who is a leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party and an election candidate in the capital.

Some politicians have recognised the problem and are willing to tackle it, but there are "others (who) are not very much interested and maybe see there is a chance to gain through such behaviour," he said. But whatever happens after the parliamentary election, the second since US-led troops ousted Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003, he said he believed sectarian tensions would not go away.

"In the coming years I think some sort of tension will continue between the communities about whether they have full rights or not," said Samarraie, who spent two decades in exile after Saddam's forces cracked down on his party.

With around 800,000 Iraqis employed in the security forces, and with the state accounting for around half of all jobs here, the stakes are high. There are no official figures on how public sector jobs are split between Iraq's religious and ethnic communities, but Sunnis complain that the Shiites are disproportionately represented. If that is true, it is partly due to the Sunnis' previous refusal to join the police and army, which was sparked by their resentment at the rise to power after Saddam's ouster of the long-oppressed Shiite majority. But many Sunnis have now begun engaging with the state, and Sunni voters are expected to turn out in force on Sunday, in stark contrast to the last parliamentary election in 2005 which they mostly boycotted. That boycott left most Sunnis in the political wilderness, deepened the sectarian divide and heightened the deadly violence between Sunnis and Shiites that fell only in the past two years.

A Shiite is almost certain to become prime minister.

But in this poll, whose final days of campaigning have been rocked by suicide attacks that killed dozens, many competing blocs have shunned sectarian politics and included candidates from across the political and ethnic spectrum. Samarraie, who speaks fluent English, said however that there was still a long way to go before all communities would feel they are getting equal rights. The Sunni-dominated Iraqi Accord Front to which his party belongs is unlikely to be one of the dominant blocs to emerge from Sunday's vote. But it will demand that discrimination be addressed when the leading blocs seek its support in forming a government, said Samarraie.

"The main issue we would want to see the government address is that the balance in the administration, the army and the police is not proper," he said.

Samarraie also warned that negotiations to form the new administration would take at least two months and possibly much longer and could lead to a "political vacuum" while the talks drag on.

"I think there will be three main blocs. The fourth one will be the Kurds. and all three will try to see if they are able to bring the Kurds with them," he said.

The Kurdish alliance from Iraq's autonomous northern region is the junior partner in the current government and hopes to sell its support in return for an acceptable deal on oil rights and the sovereignty of the city of Kirkuk.

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidAN...Sunni%20leader