Fate of first Arab democracy hangs in balance as Iraqis go to the polls
There are no greater supporters of democracy in Iraq than the printers: for weeks they have been working flat out to satisfy the demand for elections posters. In Baghdad alone, 150 of them expect to earn £4 million by covering the dusty streets of the capital with man-size images of the candidates, with their promises of a better future.
“In two weeks I’ve pocketed what I would normally make in six months,” says Omar Hamid, owner of the al-Sima printing press in the Mutanabi neighbourhood. “I’m very happy with democracy. If it were up to me we would have elections every year.”
Not all Iraqis are so enthusiastic about tomorrow’s poll, but how they vote will help to determine if the first proper Arab democracy will live or die. It will also shape the legacy of the US in the region. Will Iraq transform into a model democracy, as George W. Bush envisaged, or will it sink into chaos? The answer will tell President Obama whether he can begin bringing American troops home this summer.
The country is certainly more stable than at the height of the sectarian war three years ago, but its survival as a functioning democracy is not assured. The insurgency remains the greatest threat: an average of ten civilians die every day in politically motivated violence — a far higher number than in Afghanistan.
Last night al-Qaeda signalled that it remained a potent threat. Announcing a “curfew” on election day, the terror network warned that anyone who defied it would face the wrath of “Allah and the weapons of the Mujahidin”.
To protect voters tomorrow, the Iraqi Government is conducting the largest security operation in its short history. Almost one million people — including 190 women — will be guarding 19 million voters. Armed guards are visible on most street corners, creating a far more militaristic scene than anything witnessed under Saddam.
The new Iraqi security forces have a self-confidence to rival the old dictator’s bluster. “We are ready for any unexpected operations,” said MajorGeneral Abdul-Amir Rashid. Cars will be banned from the roads to prevent bombings. Voters must walk to polling stations or take boats if they live in the marshes of southern Iraq.
The long-term stability of the country will in large part depend on who is picked as prime minister and how much support he will have. One candidate on everyone’s list is Nouri al-Maliki, the current office-holder. He gets credit for reducing violence and turning Iraq into a state that is, at least, half-functioning, after years of anarchy.
Nonetheless, his enemies depict him as weak and indecisive. They say that he has been relying on the hated American military. They also remind voters of his lowly background: he was a bead-seller in the public market in Damascus during years in exile. In the week before the election, a doctored photo of Mr al-Maliki made the rounds by e-mail here. It showed an unshaven Prime Minister wearing a primitive headscarf sitting on a blanket surrounded by his gaudy wares. If re-elected, Mr al-Maliki is likely to continue the current course of improving security without fundamentally reforming the corrupt system of government that has developed over the past few years. The Berlin-based Transparency International ranks Iraq as the fourth most corrupt country in the world. Almost nothing happens without a bribe.
Will Mr al-Maliki win? Iraqi opinion polls are little better at predicting the future than ****-readers in the bazaar. He certainly has a good chance. His most obvious rival is Ayad Allawi, a former Prime Minister. He is a poor campaigner and has spent much of his time during the election outside Iraq.
Still, his popularity is rising. He stands for the most important trend in Iraqi politics: the return of nationalism. “Dr Allawi is a candidate who really does not care about being Shia or Sunni,” said Salam Mohammed, a carpenter. “He is an Iraqi, nothing else.” He is also a British citizen, but his supporters tend to ignore that.
A trained physician, he is a Shia Muslim who co-operated with the Sunni-dominated Baath party of Saddam — before its henchmen tried to kill him in his home in Kingston-upon-Thames. That gives him a certain credibility on both sides of the sectarian fence. He is also a fierce critic of Iranian influence in Iraq. Both Dr Allawi and Mr al-Maliki will have to strike alliances with smaller players to form a government. Their main rival is an amorphous bloc of Shia groups known as the Iraqi National Alliance.
It favours greater religious influence, but most of its leaders are weak or tainted by past incompetence and violence. Still, its deep roots in the Shia community will ensure that it is likely to get a say in who will lead Iraq. Some of its leaders hope for their own elevation. No party is expected to win outright. Heated coalition talks are likely.
If the new parliament cannot agree on a prime minister and starts to drift, Iraq will face a serious crisis. Many problems remain unresolved and threaten to undermine stability unless tackled soon. Sunni Muslims have laid down arms and come into the political process after boycotting the last election, but unless they are given some influence they will continue to feel disenfranchised and could return to the warpath.
Shias, for their part, may be the winners of the sectarian war but they have not resolved their internal dynamics. Many leaders vie for power and their rivalry could lead to new violence.
An even greater threat, though, is posed by the latent conflict between Sunni Arabs and Sunni Kurds in northern Iraq. Both are increasingly well armed and have yet to agree on a border between them or who owns the oil.
Yet, on the streets of Baghdad, the gloom of recent years is forgotten, for the moment at least. A four-day holiday has been called, and residents are taking full advantage.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cl***51959.ece