Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Iraqi town surrounded, cleared, walled off
WASHINGTON, Dec. 29 (UPI) -- U.S. and Iraqi troops have cleared a small city in Iraq of residents and erected a 12-foot high dirt wall.

The eight-mile berm wraps around the town Siniyah of Salah ah Din province like a horseshoe, according to U.S. Central Command. It is topped by razor wire and surveillance posts.

The clear-hold-berm approach has been used successfully in places like Fallujah and Tall Afar to limit physical access to the towns, forcing traffic -- both vehicular and foot -- to move through controlled access points. There is now just one route in and out of Siniyah.

Siniyah is a small town near Bayji where there is a critical oil refinery that services northern Iraq and exports to Turkey and other locations. It suffered a spike in roadside bombs and attacks on coalition and Iraqi forces in late 2005. Locals insisted the problem was coming from outsiders - people moving in from the Syrian desert to disrupt Iraq. The entire local police force of more than 100 in Siniyah quit on Oct. 24, citing terrorist attacks and threats against their family. Two weeks later, the police station was destroyed by attacks. The city council quit and so did the mayor, according to a news release issued by U.S. Central Command.

On Nov. 29, Iraqi soldiers and U.S. Army paratroopers cordoned off the city, allowing no one to enter or leave except for those requiring urgent medical care. Supply trucks carrying food, water, and heating oil were searched and escorted to drop-off points on the edge of the city inside the cordon, according to U.S. Central Command.

The "clearing" phase began two weeks later, when 500 Iraqi and about 120 American searched the town of 29,000 house to house for 72 hours.

I've been trying to write this post all day...I get started, the words don't flow and I delete...this is my last shot...here goes:

This is how I see the situation. Iraq has caught the world's attention. We've seen countless articles discussing this or that country's plans for investment in Iraq. We've seen countless articles discussing some kind of increase in the value of the dinar. Countless articles discussing economic progress of all shapes and sizes...and oil, let's not forget the oil!

It seems to me that Iraq has been trying to draw the world's attention to the vast opportunities for financial gain. With the solid, unhyped gains in Dinar value Iraq might finally have the world's atention--and this is where it will get interesting.

As the buzz about Iraq's economic progress and opportunities grows, more and more movers and shakers will sit up and pay attention and really scrutenize Iraq's economic opportunities. Attention breeds attention. The buzz will grow. Imagine people lined up outside a concert hall to see a hot new band. First there's just a couple people. Then a few more...someone drives by, sees a growing crowd and stops to check it out--attention breeds attention...soon, people are pressing up against the gate, waiting to get in. They are impatient and begin to put pressure on the venue to open up...

I think this is where Iraq is heading. We may not see a dramatic adjustment 8 Jan....don't loose heart. The movers and shakers in the world are already lining up to get in and see the show. The pressure that will drive Iraq to action has already started to build. Iraq will have to open it's doors or face a very angry crowd...

I see this as taking on a life of its own. The ball has started rolling and it's getting bigger and rolling faster by the day. The outcome is unavoidable. Now is the time to just sit back and enjoy this ride...

Cheers! OSWoman

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

the article said no change in the rate UNTIL end of businessday on the 7th. now why in the hell would they wait til the end of the business day on a sunday??? BECAUSE THEY ARE INTRODUCING THE NEW RATE ON MONDAY SO THERES A SMALL LAPSE BETWEEN ANNOUNCEMENT AND FOREX OPENING IF ANY AT ALL. very smart business move.

I am with ya 100% on this one. Also, with sadman being "put down" this weekend you know there will be a lot of violence. New laws & more security will do some good but a husky revalue would help way more. I have dealt with people from the middle east (living locally) for many years now & trust me, it's all about the money.

Originally Posted by DanielJay

Dumb question. But whats going to happen if nothing happens on the 8th? And Iraq just keeps shaving small points off the rate like its doing currently with its "gradual" strategy.

I'm sorry, but I just cant see them saying, "hey, we're gonna move the decimal over, and our money is worth this much because we say so".

Please enlighten me.

That's ok if you can't see it. Do you remember what they did to the rate when the NID was introduced? Time to give it back!!!

[QUOTE=investindinar;154601]IMHO, I believe that a slow and gradual approach is best. I'm not expecting a massive 1000x revaluation on Jan. 8, 2007 or any other date. The reasons are: (1) insufficient hard currency reserves plus precious metals by the CBI, and insufficient national GDP to back up the currency at that level (ie. $1 or higher per each IQD), and (2) revaluations of that magnitude so quickly have never been attempted before AFAIK.

My best hunch is that the CBI will continue to test the value of the currency using a variety of methods (one of which is the commercial banks' auctioning system) and let the currency gradually move to a point of equilibrium between M1 supply and demand.... easier said than done. That being said, I think they'll let the currency crash through this hypothetical level of 1,260:1, and let it run as high as it can go before they'll consider removing the IQD from a managed float/flexible exchange rate regime, and set the IQD to a currency band like China, at a much higher level than what it is now. IMHO, a currency band for the IQD would be better than a managed float for the sake of establishing a fair value for the currency. A free float is not out of the question, but this currency is only a little over 3 years old, and is not sufficiently stable or liquid at this time to consider a free float like the USD, GBP, EUR, etc. Come 2010, things may look differently.

Then again, the way things have been moving the last 60 days, we really can't say for sure until what happens, happens. One major factor in favor of a sudden and massive revaluation is this: the higher the valuation of the IQD currency against the USD, the more favorable the impact it will have on their GDP. Since most of their industrial and finished products are imported, Iraqi consumers, and their GDP, will enjoy a bonanza of sorts. Long term prospects for inflation will definitely be lower than they are right now.

Just my 2 dinars worth.

will not predict what the CBI will do. Investindinar made very good points for two of the directions the CBI could go. Excellent post. But a third way the CBI could go would be to do nothing more than what they have already done. The only justification for doing nothing is void. That reason would be stability. But they have already shown that they can move the dinar up in value and still maintain stability, at least in the short term. So standing pat is a possibility but not a likely one.

I think what we will get is one of the two scenarios put forth by Investindinar. Although he(I think he) thinks the more likely event will be a gradual rise he does not dismiss a "massive revaluation". In my mind the only difference between the two is time. 1=1 now or a year from now. I admit now is better but a year from now is not a sharpe stick in the eye either.

From Aliraqi;

BREAKING NEWS: I just heard on Aliraqiya that they will hang Saddam 6 AM Iraq time

Originally Posted by ordinaryseawoman

I've been trying to write this post all day...I get started, the words don't flow and I delete...this is my last shot...here goes:

This is how I see the situation. Iraq has caught the world's attention. We've seen countless articles discussing this or that country's plans for investment in Iraq. We've seen countless articles discussing some kind of increase in the value of the dinar. Countless articles discussing economic progress of all shapes and sizes...and oil, let's not forget the oil!

It seems to me that Iraq has been trying to draw the world's attention to the vast opportunities for financial gain. With the solid, unhyped gains in Dinar value Iraq might finally have the world's atention--and this is where it will get interesting.

As the buzz about Iraq's economic progress and opportunities grows, more and more movers and shakers will sit up and pay attention and really scrutenize Iraq's economic opportunities. Attention breeds attention. The buzz will grow. Imagine people lined up outside a concert hall to see a hot new band. First there's just a couple people. Then a few more...someone drives by, sees a growing crowd and stops to check it out--attention breeds attention...soon, people are pressing up against the gate, waiting to get in. They are impatient and begin to put pressure on the venue to open up...

I think this is where Iraq is heading. We may not see a dramatic adjustment 8 Jan....don't loose heart. The movers and shakers in the world are already lining up to get in and see the show. The pressure that will drive Iraq to action has already started to build. Iraq will have to open it's doors or face a very angry crowd...

I see this as taking on a life of its own. The ball has started rolling and it's getting bigger and rolling faster by the day. The outcome is unavoidable. Now is the time to just sit back and enjoy this ride...

Cheers! OSWoman

Your last shot? Sure was a good one. Nicely said OSW II :)

Iraq's oil revenue may provide every Iraqi with $3500 a year


26 December 2006 (MENAFN)

An American energy analyst that a plan gaining favor in Washington to distribute Iraq's oil revenue directly to its people could put $3,500 a year in the hands of every adult Iraqi citizen, AlArab Online reported.

The analyst said that his estimate was based on an oil price of $60 a barrel, $10 a barrel production costs, and the assumption that 10 million Iraqis would be old enough to qualify for a share of their country's oil wealth.

He said that the best way to administer the program may be to give the money to those who register to vote and maintain a bank account, thus promoting social involvement and stability.

However, opponents say distributing the money would be difficult due to logistical and corruption problems, but the idea has picked up advocates as the United States looks for ways to stop the chaos that has followed the 2003 invasion that toppled Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Iraq produces 2.2 million barrels of oil a day and exports 1.5 million barrels, according to the Iraq Study Group Report issued earlier this month.

Estimates for current average annual income in Iraq vary widely, but top out at around $1,500 a year.

Iraq's oil revenue may provide every Iraqi with $3500 a year | Iraq Updates

Barzani : region's share in the budget of a few Iraq for the new year

(Voice of Iraq) - 12-30-2006
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Barzani : Najirfan region's share "few" in Iraq budget for the new year

Irbil (December 30) and the agency (Lucky) Italian News-complained Najirfan Barzani, head of the government of Kurdistan, of "a few" percentage allocated to the territory, 17%, within the Iraqi state budget for next year which amount to 41 billion dollars. He said that "the current share of the budget is not enough to meet our needs, because part of this share goes to the sovereign expenses and other expenses common between us and the Iraqi government", such as the purchase of electricity, medicines and support farmers. He pointed out that "what remains of the State budget allocates 17% for the territorial government, and therefore the rate is not as it is declared." Barzani and promised to adopt "transparency and honesty with our people, because he deserves our appreciation for their great sacrifices for Kurdistan, but it also realizes that the potential of the regional government are limited, and that there are many restrictions on economic autonomy." The amounts recovered on the territorial government in Baghdad within the budget of 2006, he said, "if he did not go to Baghdad to discuss this matter to the amount of 480 million dollars would be lost." He added : "This is the amount that is the right of the Kurdistan has been recognized by the ministers of finance and planning of a calculation error in this regard, but we can through our travel deal despite the fact that part of this amount went to the government in Baghdad."

(Shs/Aki)

Agencies : Saddam executed between 5:30 and 6:00 Saturday

(Voice of Iraq) - 12-30-2006
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Agencies : Saddam executed between 5:30 and 6:00 Saturday