Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by texaslonghorns

I believe this is where the "program rate" comes into effect. It dosen't matter the reserves or the amount in circulation as long as they are on the IMF's program. If you really look at it, today there are 10X the cash reserves. Divide 1400 by 10 and you get a current rate of 140 dinars. And probably more if you take into account the dinar taken out of circulation. This would be based purly on the "program rate" up to now. Once they are off the IMF program and the real value of the dinar is revealed it should be huge.

Originally Posted by Jetsa
Vipor, I read a post that in 2004 there was a rate of 1380-1400 and it was reported at that time that they had 1.5 billion USD in reserves. Now, 2 years later, we revisit that rate and have 10 times the reserves plus gold etc.

It just sorta struck me as odd, a kind of no method to their madness sorta deal (although I am of the camp that thinks that their method, or plan, has been known and set in motion for a long time).

I still am not sure that you guys and girls get what he is saying here. The exchange rate is the same now as it was back then at only a fraction of the reserves, not included the added debt forgiveness, newly discovered gold, added oil fields, etc etc. I see it blatatly saying what we already know to be true in that the VALUE doesn't make any sense. With all the added wealth the value should be much higher. Am I making sense here? Good post and good point Jetsa. Go Baby Bo!!

Fallujah’s safer option

FALLUJAH, Iraq (AFP)
‘Damascus is near, where is Baghdad?’

For residents of Iraq’s former rebel town of Fallujah, distant Damascus seems closer these days than their own war-torn capital Baghdad, just 50 km away.
Whether it be traders needing to replenish supplies or families taking their loved ones for medical treatment, the highway to Baghdad is a road inhabitants of this predominantly Sunni town would rather avoid.
For them the long, rocky 900 km journey to the Syrian capital is a far safer option.
“Damascus is nearer to us than Baghdad despite the odds on the long journey,” says Mohammed Jayad, a trader from Fallujah, once a hotbed of Sunni rebels fighting US forces after the toppling of Saddam Hussein.
“Actually it should be the other way, but Baghdad has turned into a far-fetched dream or rather a Bermuda triangle,” he said referring to the mysterious region in the Atlantic Ocean where ships and planes are said to disappear without explanation.
Many districts of Baghdad – the epicentre of Iraq’s violence – have become virtual death traps for Sunni Arabs as rampaging Shia militias storm districts and neighbourhoods, killing and kidnapping members of the formerly ruling sect.
Despite a massive security operation since mid-June by US and Iraqi forces, hundreds and hundreds of Baghdadis are killed each week, some kidnapped and shot execution-style, some blown apart in car bombs some caught in crossfire between security forces and militia groups.
The deadly sectarian carnage has deeply affected the Sunni Arabs from Fallujah who once bore the brunt of fighting between Iraq’s raging insurgency and US forces, who stormed the town in November 2004 and sent its nearly 250,000 inhabitants fleeing.
Fallujah has now emerged as a relatively peaceful town in the otherwise flashpoint Anbar province and residents say they now want to get on with their lives – and avoid Baghdad at all cost.
Hadi Jassim, a Sunni Arab, takes his ailing son, who suffers from cancer, for treatment at a hospital in Damascus.
Fallujah’s traders, meanwhile, find it easier to import goods from Syria than from Baghdad.
The number of checkpoints on the highway to Baghdad and incidents such as the massacre by Shia militias in the capital’s Jihad neighbourhood of more than 40 Sunnis travelling by bus in July have made people reluctant to head to the violence-wracked city.
Traders have now decided to come together and order bulk imports from Damascus. The goods are then supplied to smaller markets across Fallujah and nearby regions.
“Fallujah has become the trade hub for many neighbouring regions. We no longer need big trade centres like Baghdad,” Jayad said.
Some goods they import are finding their way to Baghdad through a two-step process in which they are transported to wholesale zones near Abu Ghraib from where another group of traders picks them up and take them on to the capital.
Last update on: 17-12-2006

Iraq travel warning is now 'extreme'
Monday Dec 18 05:37 AEDT
The federal government has stepped up its travel warning for Iraq, which now states even journalists should stay away.

The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFAT) issued the warning today (Monday).

"We continue to receive a stream of reporting indicating that terrorists and anti-government forces are in the advanced stages of planning attacks against a range of targets, including places frequented by foreigners," the warning states.

"If you are in Iraq and are concerned for your safety you should consider leaving. Australians in Iraq, including journalists, should exercise extreme caution as all westerners could be affected."




When danger is at an extreme and death of westerners a high possibility, journalists are the final group of civilians to leave a war-torn country.

DFAT could not confirm if any Australian journalists were still in Iraq.

The report comes only weeks after politicians and military commanders in the United States admit the US-led coalition is losing the war in Iraq.

The report also states the Australian government has limited consular services in Iraq, particularly outside of the capital Baghdad.

And three cases of avian influenza, or bird flu, have been reported in the country.

Originally Posted by Mike5200

I thought we had pretty much figured with the size and scope of all the projects they have lined up for 2007 that they couldn't possibly manage it all at the current rate without an immediate reval when the fiscal year hits. It might be an interesting project for one of our research/numbercrunchers to go back through the news thread and try to add up the totals for all the projected reconstruction and spending they are saying they will do compared to the projected budget at the current rate. I suspect that we would find that they couldn"t possibly do all that without a substantial reval at least by or at the beginning of the fiscal year. Just throwing this out there!

http://www.rolclub.com/150603-post125.html

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Hello everyone. As a previous post stated, "It just got interesting"! We have seen the largest rise in the value of the dinar since we began this vigil. A nice increase in the rate. Not the "dribble" increases we have seen for the last month or so. So, what can we say about this? There are several things that we might think about.
This is the first rise that sends a signal to the economy that they are not afraid to raise the level of the dinar during one auction in a significant amount. And, we might want to begin to confirm a trend that they will increase the value of the dinar in increasing increments. The "speeding up" process that we have discussed. A good thing. Market psychology will begin to play much more than before. We are already hearing of merchants in Iraq unwilling to sell their dinar at these levels, they want more. I think one report was for around 1000 to 1. I suspect these types of reports will continue. There is the possibility that the CBI is "testing the water'. Demonstrating to the economy and to the world that the value is about to increase even more. They are NOT being to subtle about this. They are clearly sending a signal and the market will respond with increasing demand and a rising price. Especially since supply has apparently been cut off in a process that may have begun earlier this year. None of this precludes a bold adjust in the exchange rate. If they keep this gradual rise in the value of the dinar, then, when they do decide to adjust the currency in a more dramatic way, it will not be surprising to anyone. Just another day in the sand box.
So lets see if the week confirms our idea that the rate will continue to increase at increasing levels, that the CBI will continue to remove currency from the market, that they are not going to put more dinar into the economy, and see what reports come in about a "drying up process either in supply or price. Thank You. Life is good!

If you are within driving distance of any bank that sells dinar - this would be a very good time to buy some more!

Looking to midnight Jan 1st, 2007 - for a bold adjust in the dinar value!

Date: Tue, 12 Dec 2006 08:32:10 -0500
From: [email protected] Add to Address Book Add Mobile Alert
Subject: Statement on the Situation Concerning Iraq
To: [email protected]
Statement on the Situation Concerning Iraq


Ambassador Jackie W. Sanders, U.S. Representative to the UN for Special
Political Affairs
Remarks to the Security Council
New York City
December 11, 2006

USUN PRESS RELEASE #391

As requested by the UN Security Council in Resolutions 1546, 1637 and
1723, I
am pleased to report to the Security Council on behalf of the 25
countries
making up the Multinational Forces-Iraq (MNF-I), on the Force's
progress
towards fulfilling its mandate.

Mr. President,

There have been a number of important developments in this reporting
period. We
welcome the Security Council's unanimous adoption of Resolution 1723 to
extend
the Multinational Force-Iraqi (MNF-I) mandate and the arrangements for
the
Development Fund for Iraq and the International Advisory and Monitoring
Board.
The MNF-I continues to play a vital role in the security and stability
of Iraq
and to work in partnership with Iraqi authorities to support the
transition of
security responsibility to Iraqi Security Forces. As noted in the
Secretary of
State's November 17 letter to the Council President in support of the
MNF-I
mandate, the Government of Iraq and MNF-I have three common goals:
Iraqi
assumption of recruiting, training, equipping and arming of the Iraqi
security
forces; Iraqi assumption of command and control over Iraqi forces; and
transferring responsibility for security to the Government of Iraq.

The Iraqi Government has made progress on its ambitious reform agenda.
On
October 10, the Iraqi Council of Representatives (CoR) adopted a new
foreign
investment law. The CoR also passed a federal regions law on October 11
that
will allow Iraq's provinces to hold referenda to merge themselves into
larger
federal regions. This law is to come into effect in 2008. In addition,
a
Constitutional Review Committee was established on September 25 to
explore
options for amending the Iraqi constitution.

Progress continues as well on the International Compact with Iraq, an
Iraqi
initiative to create a new partnership with the international community
and
build a strong framework for Iraq's continued political, security and
economic
transformation and integration into the regional and global economy.
The final
Preparatory meeting took place in Kuwait on October 31, and the Compact
was
endorsed unanimously by the Iraqi Council of Ministers on November 26.
This
Compact is expected to be finalized by early next year, we hope, with
broad and
active international support.

Despite progress on these fronts, security remains a grave concern.
Sunni
insurgent attacks against the Iraqi Security Forces and MNF-I remain at
high
levels, and the forces continue to experience attacks from armed Shia
groups,
especially in the Baghdad region. At the same time, sectarian violence,
much of
it directed toward civilians, has increased.

Security Situation

Mr. President, insurgents, extremists and terrorists continue their
attacks.
The ongoing violence continues to take a toll on the country and its
people.
The number of attacks increased 22 percent over this reporting period,
attributed in part to a spike in violence during Ramadan. Fifty-four
percent of
all attacks occurred in 2 of Iraq's 18 provinces, Baghdad and Anbar,
although
violence was significant in Diyala province and in the cities of
Kirkuk, Mosul,
Basrah, Al-Amarah, and Balad. MNF-I and Iraqi Security Forces continued
joint
efforts to address security in Baghdad and Basra.

More Iraqi units are taking the lead in combat operations against the
insurgency. In October the 4th Iraqi Army division planned, coordinated
and
executed an Iraqi*-controlled, division-level operation in Kirkuk in
response
to the spike of vehicle-borne improvised explosive devise attacks just
prior to
and during Ramadan. The operation was the first division-level plan
executed
under control of the Iraqi Ground Forces Command headquarters.

The rise of sectarian violence has become the greatest threat to
security and
stability in Iraq. Approximately 80 percent of the sectarian violence
in Iraq
happens within a 35-mile radius of Baghdad. In response to the
worsening
situation, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki announced a four-point plan on
October 2
to unite Shia and Sunni parties in his government behind the drive to
stop
sectarian killings that have plagued the country. The Iraqi Government
has also
sponsored a series of four reconciliation conferences across Iraq aimed
at
promoting a national dialogue and soliciting recommendations for
action.

Two meetings of tribal leaders and civil society have already taken
place. In
October, the Organisation for the Islamic Conference hosted a gathering
of
Sunni and Shiite religious leaders in Mecca, which called for the end
to
sectarian bloodshed in Iraq.

While infrastructure attacks have decreased, they average one per week
and
hamper the provision of essential services, such as electrical power,
water,
and fuel. These ongoing attacks and the difficult security environment
are
impediments to improving the supply of these essential services. The
Iraqi
infrastructure will continue to be a high-value target for disruptive
elements.

Iraqi Security Forces

Mr. President, the Multinational Force in Iraq continues to train,
develop, and
contribute to the capabilities and readiness of Iraqi Security Forces.
Iraq is
making progress in building security forces that are capable of
independently
combating insurgents and fighting terrorists. The security forces of
the
Ministry of Defense and Interior continue to increase in size and
capability,
and are increasingly taking over leadership roles in fighting
insurgents and
terrorists. On September 21, MNF-I transferred Dhi Qar Province to
provincial
Iraqi control, putting security responsibility in the hands of the
Provincial
Governor and his local police force of 10,000. MNF-I continues to
support and
assist the Iraqi Security Forces as they move toward conducting fully
independent operations and achieving security self-reliance.

The number of counter-insurgency operations conducted independently by
Iraqi
forces as a percentage of total combat operations continues to increase
steadily. One hundred and six Iraqi Army and Special Operations
battalions and
11 Strategic Infrastructure Battalions are now conducting
counter-insurgency
operations, with 98 battalions assessed as capable of taking the lead
in
operations or operating independently.

The Iraqi government, alongside MNF-I, has identified a force structure
to
maintain a security environment that will provide a basis for
transitioning
Iraq to security self-reliance. The authorized end-strength force
structure of
the Armed Forces is 137,500 personnel, including one Iraqi Ground
Forces
Command, 10 divisions and 36 brigade headquarters, 114 Army and Special
Operations Battalions, 17 Strategic Infrastructure Battalions, six Air
Force
squadrons, three navy squadrons, and 19 combat support battalions.

The Iraq Ministry of Interior, with the assistance of the MNF-I, has
begun a
multi-phased National Transformation Plan to assess National Police
Battalions'
current capabilities, reinforce police training, and establish
practices for
continuing education of the police forces. The end-strength force
structure for
all Ministry of Interior forces is 188,200 trained and equipped
personnel
manning two division headquarters, nine brigade headquarters, and 27
combat
battalions. The force structure plan is designed to enable a stable
civil-security environment that leads to a democratic and
representative
government, and a prosperous economy.

As of November 13, six Iraqi Army division headquarters, 30 brigade
headquarters and 91 battalions have the security lead in their areas of
operation. These numbers reflect approximately 70 percent of the Iraqi
Army.
The MNF-I has transferred 55 of the 110 forward operating bases to
Iraqi
control.

Mr. President, the United Nations continues to play a crucial role in
Iraq's
stability and development. The UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) is
providing important expertise under its mandate, which was extended in
August
2006 for another year (UNSCR 1700). Due to security concerns, the UN
has
recently decided to temporarily reduce staff positions in Baghdad. A
robust
UNAMI presence remains essential to supporting Iraqi efforts, including
on
national reconciliation, Constitutional Review and future provincial
elections.
Also, a UNAMI presence will be crucial in taking forward work on the
International Compact, jointly with the Government of Iraq. In addition
to
Baghdad, the UN has limited representation in Irbil and Basra. MNF-I
continues
to assist UNAMI and to help UNAMI achieve its goal for a full, robust
and
secure presence in Iraq.

Multinational Forces, notably the Georgian, Romanian, and South Korean
contingents, continue to provide security for the United Nations in
Baghdad,
Basra, and Irbil, respectively. These troops provide static site
security,
reconnaissance, security patrols, convoy escorts, checkpoints, and,
when
necessary, MEDEVAC and emergency evacuation. Contributions to the UN
Distinct
Entity Trust Fund will ensure continued support for this critical
security
function. Under a separate UN agreement, Fijian troops also provide
static and
close-in protection for UN personnel and facilities in Baghdad.

Conclusion

Mr. President, the implementation of Iraq's National Reconciliation
Plan will
be an important component in the government's efforts to build a united
country. Concerted efforts to control the sectarian violence and
confront the
insurgency remain critically important to Iraq's future. Training and
equipping
of the Iraqi Security Forces continues, and we anticipate a continued
process
of transferring security responsibility for specific areas from MNF-I
to the
Iraqi authorities. MNF-I continues to support the Iraqi government as
it
prepares to assume full responsibility for the country's security.
Iraq's stability and security is a regional issue, as well as an
international
issue, and Iraq's neighbors have an important role to play. We call on
the
entire international community to support Iraq's sovereign government
and
assist efforts for a democratic, united and prosperous Iraq.


Released on December 11, 2006

Iraq has a refugee crisis

12/16/2006

By TRUDY RUBIN

Several weeks ago, I wrote about an Iraqi Christian friend who fled his home for neighboring Jordan. He and his family feared for their lives in a civil war atmosphere in which civilians were being pulled out of cars and shot on neighborhood streets.
My friend George is part of an Iraqi refugee crisis that has attracted little attention as Americans debate whether to draw down U.S. troops. The United Nations' High Commissioner for Refugees said in November that up to 2,000 Iraqis a day were leaving Iraq for nearby Syria and an additional 1,000 a day for Jordan. U.N. agencies and nongovernmental organizations estimate more than 1 million Iraqis have fled the country since 2003.

The pace has accelerated as Iraq has sunk into a vicious cycle of sectarian killing. The U.N.'s refugee agency also estimates that 425,000 Iraqis have fled their homes this year to safer locales inside Iraq. Much of this exodus commenced after the bombing of a holy Shiite shrine in February that set off an orgy of revenge and ethnic cleansing.

In neighborhoods throughout Baghdad, and in mixed cities around Iraq, sectarian militias are driving out members of minorities in their area. Sunnis or Shiites are given a few hours' notice to leave on pain of death, or are simply murdered. Families that lived next to each other for decades are forced out.

Almost everyone I know in Iraq has relatives who have fled. One couple I knew in Mosul left for Lebanon after getting death threats for having met with Americans. A Baghdad family decamped for Jordan after retrieving their teenager who had been kidnapped for a $50,000 ransom (this criminal practice is rampant in Baghdad.) On the Web site of Refugees International you can read heart-rending testimonies by Iraqis who had to leave or die.

But for Iraqi refugees without financial means, little help is available. Unlike other global refugee crises, in which governments work with aid agencies to help victims, this refugee crisis dares not speak its name.

For political reasons, neither Iraq's neighbors nor the United States wants to recognize these Iraqis as refugees - or grant them permanent residency status. Small countries such as Jordan and Syria can't afford to be permanently burdened with hundreds of thousands of newcomers who have few resources.

Washington has other, more political concerns. "For the United States . . . to recognize the existence of a million refugees would mean admitting they have failed to establish peace and security in Iraq," states Sarah Leah Whitson, who directs Human Rights Watch's Middle East and North Africa division.

As the White House struggles to produce a new strategy for "victory" in Iraq, this Iraqi exodus is an inconvenient reminder of Iraq's unremitting violence.

As a result, the international response to the Iraqi refugee crisis has been dismal, according to Kenneth Bacon, who heads Refugees International. Despite refugee numbers that could approach those displaced in Darfur, aid agencies have few funds to deal with this crisis.

Both Jordan and Syria treat these Iraqis as temporary visitors, with possibility of deportation. Neither country allows them to work, leaving many in economic peril.

It's way past time for the White House to start making contingency plans to rescue thousands of Iraqis - like George - who worked with Americans over the past three years. Their lives are already in danger; if U.S. troops pull back, thousands of them will be killed.

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Iraqi leader urges democratic forces to be formed

POL-3LD IRAQ-BLAIR
Iraqi leader urges democratic forces to be formed

BAGHDAD, Dec 17 (KUNA) -- Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said here Sunday a front involving all democratic political parties and forces would be made up soon.

The remarks were made by the Iraqi leader in a joint news conference with visiting British Prime Minister Tony Blair ahead of the latter's trip to Basra where British forces are stationed.

Talabani said "We have briefed the British prime minister on the situation in Iraq. We have clarified to him that the prevalent attitude in the country is now heading towards national reconciliation and consensus on a front involving all political forces that believe in democracy and are ready to open up to everyone, as well as reinforcing our armed forces in order to be able to impose security and stability in the country." For his part, Blair reiterated his country's continued support for democracy in Iraq, pointing to a fresh strategy to tackle the situation in Iraq based on reconciliation among all Iraqi forces.

Asked about US President George W. Bush's new Iraq strategy, he said the strategy is based on the quality of challenges and threats in Iraq amid attempts to block the political process and national reconciliation in Iraq.

Blair added that he had not only met with Iraqi politicians but he had also met with Iraqi army commanders who are seeking to update their capabilities, quoting an Iraqi military commander with whom he met as saying "We are now in need to translate decisions into action. If this happens, then democracy will prevail in spite of all sectarian and terrorists attempts to destroy it." Asked if he was concerned over a potential US and British troop pullout following the Iraq Study Group Report, the Iraqi leader said "We are aware that British and US forces will not remain in Iraq for good. Our forces are aware of this fact too." "We are seeking to develop our capabilities, mobility and maneuver so that these friendly forces can quit." Talabani expressed hope that Iraqi forces would be able to assume responsibility at an early date in order to impose security and stability in the country. (pickup previous) mhg.

mt

Sotaliraq.com

Syria Offers 'Peace' in Response to ISG Proposals

Sotaliraq.com

Sotaliraq.com

Winds of Change.NET: "Going Big" in Iraq is last chance

Christmas message to Jalal Talabani and Masoud Barzani


Sunday, December 17, 2006

KurdishMedia.com - By Peter Stitt

In our house Christmas is a time for thinking about what we have done and what we should do in the future. It is also a time for throwing our doors open and welcoming friends into our home. For Christmas dinner last year we had Bahdini, Sorani, Kirmanj, Chinese and Italian guests. In the Kurdish contingent we had PUK, PDK and PKK supporters; they all get along as friends who just believe ultimately in Kurdistan.

My message to Jalal Talabani and Masoud Barzani is that they should have a big Christmas party at one of their houses. They should throw their doors open to the poor from the surrounding towns and villages and they, like I do, should serve the food to those guests.

They should watch the children from their family playing with the poor children and they should learn from them. The children know the truth: social class and standing means nothing.

To Talabani and Barzani I say I have again received threats from English racists for standing up for YOUR people in Britain, when are you going to stand up for your people? I am not frightened and even my fifteen-year-old son just wants to know who the enemy is so he can attack them before they attack him.

I do not think you are bad men but I do think you have got used to the good life. It is not too late for you Barzani, to be remembered as a worthy successor to your Father, and Talabani, you will always be remembered as the most forward thinking Kurdish leader in terms of culture but the world needs something more. You are both intelligent men and I will tell you how to re-engage with your people.

Open your house this Christmas. Tour the poorest parts of Kurdistan early in the New Year (especially Kirkuk) and take more than promises with you. You should then look at your families' bank accounts and share portfolios (worldwide) and clear them, giving the money to a Kurdish organisation to distribute the money amongst the poorest in Kurdish society. Then you two will go down in history as truly great Kurdish leaders, worthy of listing beside Mullah Mustapha.

Well that's this year's fairy story told.

Given the ISG recommendations, Barzani and Talabani should be spending the Christmas period together. The report supports all Turkish and Arab interests and it has never been more important that PUK and PDK come together. I think now is the time for the legislation to be changed so there is no longer two separate peshmerga forces, there must be ONE united Kurdish army. It is your only chance Barzani and Talabani, unite or face betrayal from America and the Turkish onslaught.

To the Kurdish people I wish a peaceful and happy Christmas period. And to the families in Suleimania, Duhok and Ranya of the friends who will be celebrating Christmas with my family and I on Christmas day, thank you for producing such wonderful sons. They are my family so you are too, and we will be eating together as family soon because I am coming to South Kurdistan in 2007.

God bless you.

Biji Kurdistan.