Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Hello everyone. As a previous post stated, "It just got interesting"! We have seen the largest rise in the value of the dinar since we began this vigil. A nice increase in the rate. Not the "dribble" increases we have seen for the last month or so. So, what can we say about this? There are several things that we might think about.
This is the first rise that sends a signal to the economy that they are not afraid to raise the level of the dinar during one auction in a significant amount. And, we might want to begin to confirm a trend that they will increase the value of the dinar in increasing increments. The "speeding up" process that we have discussed. A good thing. Market psychology will begin to play much more than before. We are already hearing of merchants in Iraq unwilling to sell their dinar at these levels, they want more. I think one report was for around 1000 to 1. I suspect these types of reports will continue. There is the possibility that the CBI is "testing the water'. Demonstrating to the economy and to the world that the value is about to increase even more. They are NOT being to subtle about this. They are clearly sending a signal and the market will respond with increasing demand and a rising price. Especially since supply has apparently been cut off in a process that may have begun earlier this year. None of this precludes a bold adjust in the exchange rate. If they keep this gradual rise in the value of the dinar, then, when they do decide to adjust the currency in a more dramatic way, it will not be surprising to anyone. Just another day in the sand box.
So lets see if the week confirms our idea that the rate will continue to increase at increasing levels, that the CBI will continue to remove currency from the market, that they are not going to put more dinar into the economy, and see what reports come in about a "drying up process either in supply or price. Thank You. Life is good!

Thanks WM, the bottom line is though slow increases only heighten speculation in a currency and drive people to buy more and more. There must come a time when they make one bold, big jump. My take is they're waiting for the the oil law for this and will tie it in with the FIL.

Thoughts?

Originally Posted by Adster

Thanks WM, the bottom line is though slow increases only heighten speculation in a currency and drive people to buy more and more. There must come a time when they make one bold, big jump. My take is they're waiting for the the oil law for this and will tie it in with the FIL.

Thoughts?

I think you might be right. Buying more and more is exactly what you would expect after this kind of a signal. Soon, this week I think, we'll see at least 15 dinar increases in the value of the dinar per auction. At that rate we will have our 1 to 1 RV party this summer. International banks, corporations and high net worth individuals will begin to take notice and currency speculators around the world will increase demand. Just what we want. Again market psychology will begin to exert its power. So this week will be interesting to determine our short term trend. Everyone enjoy the ride, you are a part of history and it is exciting to watch the drama unfold. Thank you.

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

I think you might be right. Buying more and more is exactly what you would expect after this kind of a signal. Soon, this week I think, we'll see at least 15 dinar increases in the value of the dinar per auction. At that rate we will have our 1 to 1 RV party this summer. International banks, corporations and high net worth individuals will begin to take notice and currency speculators around the world will increase demand. Just what we want. Again market psychology will begin to exert its power. So this week will be interesting to determine our short term trend. Everyone enjoy the ride, you are a part of history and it is exciting to watch the drama unfold. Thank you.

Not forgetting the IMF recommended end of year rate of 1345. Another 4 auctions at say 11 points and the rate will not be far off that. Think this is the last week fo auctions until January, someone correct me please if I'm wrong. Up to now they have followed and complied with all the IMF's wishes except the increase in inflation. How do they improve inflation? Well we all know the answer to that.

Even if we do not get the biggy this week, look for early January IMO.

Originally Posted by Adster

Not forgetting the IMF recommended end of year rate of 1345. Another 4 auctions at say 11 points and the rate will not be far off that. Think this is the last week fo auctions until January, someone correct me please if I'm wrong. Up to now they have followed and complied with all the IMF's wishes except the increase in inflation. How do they improve inflation? Well we all know the answer to that.

Even if we do not get the biggy this week, look for early January IMO.

No auctions until January after this week!? I'm going to have AWS: Auction Withdrawl Syndrome!

Originally Posted by day dreamer

Details Notes
Number of banks 12 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1400 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ ------ -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 24.930.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) ------
Total offers for buying (US $) 24.930.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) ------ -----

WOOT.


Down 11 points today from 1411 to 1400. So, much for small increments of 2, 3..... Cmon Shabs keep her rollin, train keep a rollin all night long, train keep a rollin all night long....

Would be sooooooo great to see this trend continue. Does the CBI keep us guessing or what?

Not what we all want right now, but it is probably the right thing for now. Looking forward to the rest of the week, man I hope I can sleep...

Anyone want to place a bet if they end at 1345? LOL I don't want them to either, but how ironic would it be if they did just what the report said they were gonna do. Anywho, hope the markets heat up and make them reval (yes wm. I think you are right).





Man, it keeps getting interesting.

Hi everyone just got an email from Warka about my next stock purchase gives the dates they are opened and closed over the holidays for those of you interested

Just a few lines to keep you updated, the ISX will hold its final trading session for this year on Monday the 18th of December 2006. It will hold its annual end year general meeting finalizing its working procedures preparing for next year’s trading session 2007. The ISX will resume its trading activities on the 8th of January 2007.---------end


Now back to the Dinar 11 points woot I think your right Adster 1 economic package announced to the world Thanks everyone for all the great posts and articles as a working dad with a 1 yr old I appreciate all the digging you all do Cheers

Guys, here you go, you'll need Winzip to open and of course excel. Great spreadsheet.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - British Prime Minister
Tony Blair pledged his full support for
Iraq's prime minister during a visit to Baghdad on Sunday and urged neighboring countries not to undermine Nuri al-Maliki's government.


Blair said he and Maliki had discussed the need for national reconciliation, building up Iraq's security forces and "the importance of the support of all countries in the region for this process."

"We stand ready to support you in every way that we can so that in time the Iraq government and the Iraqi people can take full responsibility for their affairs," Blair told a joint news conference with Maliki in the fortified Green Zone in Baghdad.

"Most of all I reiterated our determination to stand full square behind you and the Iraqi people in assuring that your democracy is not destroyed by terrorism, sectarianism, by those who wish to live in hatred rather than in peace," Blair said.

Asked about concerns that
Syria and
Iran were not doing enough to help in Iraq, Blair said: "It's important that we exercise all the pressure and authority that we have to make sure that all countries in the region are supporting Iraq.

"There's a very strong obligation which is set out in the U.N. resolution for all countries in the region to be supportive of the Iraqi prime minister and his government ... and not undermine them," he said.

Blair pledges backing for Iraqi PM in Baghdad - Yahoo! News

The Oil Connection in Iraq Study Group Report

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16 December 2006 (Arab News)
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A group of Iraqi politicians and ministers is close to finishing a draft of a national oil law that, if enacted, would be the most significant legislation passed by the government so far and help narrow some of the country's major political schisms, according to the International Herald Tribune.

The working draft calls for the central government in Baghdad to collect oil revenues and distribute them to provinces or regions based on population. The law could also encourage foreign investment in the oil industry.

General George W. Casey Jr., the senior American commander in Iraq, and Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador, have urged Iraqi politicians to put the oil law at the top of their agendas, saying it must be passed before the year's end.

Interestingly, the Iraq Study Group report released on Dec. 6, emphasized that an equitable oil law was a necessary cornerstone to the process of national reconciliation and thus to ending the war. In a major far reaching recommendation to deal with the situation in Iraq, the report called for opening Iraq to privatize foreign oil and energy companies, providing direct technical assistance for the "drafting" of a new national oil law for Iraq, and assuring that all of Iraq's oil revenues accrue to the central government.

The ISG said: "Expanding oil production in Iraq over the long term will require creating corporate structures, establishing management systems, and installing competent managers to plan and oversee an ambitious list of major oil-field investment projects.... The United States should encourage investment in Iraq's oil sector by the international community and by international energy companies."

It may be recalled that President George W. Bush hired an employee from the US consultancy firm Bearing Point Inc. over a year ago to advise the Iraq Oil Ministry on the drafting and passage of a new national oil law. As previously drafted, the law opens Iraq's nationalized oil sector to private foreign corporate investment, but stops short of full privatization.

The ISG report, however, goes further, stating that "the United States should assist Iraqi leaders to reorganize the national oil industry as a commercial enterprise." In addition, the current constitution of Iraq is ambiguous as to whether control over Iraq's oil should be shared among its regional provinces or held under the central government.

The Iraqi constitution, drafted under US supervision, leaves the door open for regions to take the lead in developing new oil resources. Article 108 states that "oil and gas are the ownership of all the peoples of Iraq in all the regions and governorates," while Article 109 tasks the federal government with "the management of oil and gas extracted from current fields." This language has led to contention over what constitutes a "new" or an "existing" resource, a question that has profound ramifications for the ultimate control of future oil revenue.

If the ISG proposals are followed, Iraq's national oil industry will be privatized and opened to foreign firms and in control of all of Iraq's oil wealth, says Antonia Juhasz, author of "The Bush Agenda: Invading the World, One Economy at a Time.

However, the proposals should not come as a surprise given that two authors of the report, James A. Baker III and Lawrence Eagleburger, have each spent much of their political and corporate careers in pursuit of greater access to Iraq's oil and wealth.

Juhasz, in his recent article "Oil for Sale: Iraq Study Group Recommends Privatization," points out that "pragmatist" is the word most often used to describe Iraq Study Group co-chair James A. Baker III. It is equally appropriate for Lawrence Eagleburger. The term applies particularly well to each man's efforts to expand US economic engagement with Saddam Hussein throughout the 1980s and early 1990s. Not only did their efforts enrich Hussein and US corporations, particularly oil companies, it also served the interests of their own private firms.

This past July, US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman announced in Baghdad that senior US oil company executives would not enter Iraq without passage of the new law. Petroleum Economist magazine later reported that US oil companies put passage of the oil law before security concerns as the deciding factor over their entry into Iraq.

Put simply, Antonia Juhasz argues, the oil companies are trying to get what they were denied before the war or at anytime in modern Iraqi history: Access to Iraq's oil under the ground.

Maliki reaches out to former Saddam supporters
Iraqi PM urges delegates to review de-Baatification law, former Saddam soldiers to join new security forces.
By Paul Schemm

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BAGHDAD, 17 December 2006 (Middle East Online)
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Iraq's embattled prime minister offered an olive branch Saturday to former supporters of Saddam Hussein, including the army, calling for them to join a peace process in the war-wracked country.

Opening a national reconciliation conference, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki urged former soldiers from the ousted leader's defeated army to join Iraq's new security forces to fight the armed factions tearing the country apart.

He also urged delegates to review the law which banned tens of thousands of Saddam's Baath party activists from working in the civil service.

It was not clear, however, if any true representatives of the armed groups waging war against the government or any influential members of the ousted Baath party were in attendance to hear the prime minister.

"The Iraqi army opens its doors to officers and soldiers from the former army who wish to serve the country," Maliki said, adding that pensions for those not brought back would be paid.

He also called for a review of the de-Baathification process that lost so many Sunnis their jobs under the old regime.

"I call upon parliament to review the constitutional items regarding such committees as de-Baathification and the anti-corruption committee to embody the principle of forgiveness," he added.

These were key concessions and addressed a major grievance of the former military officers and government officials who were fired by the new government and went on to swell the ranks of the insurgency.

Many attendees, however, had said prior to the conference that a sweeping amnesty would be offered, while conference spokesman expressed disappointment at the lack of attendees from those against the government.

"Nobody from outside Iraq came," acknowledged Naseer al-Ani, a Sunni lawmaker and conference spokesman. "And only a very few from outside the political process in Iraq attended."

"If they boycotted this time, the next time they will see some changes and they will come," he predicted. "The 1,000-mile road starts with the first mile."

Former deputy prime minister Ahmed Chalabi, while describing the prime minister's initiatives as "very generous", cautioned against expecting any immediate results.

"I don't think this conference will have any immediate effect on the security situation."

The creation of a huge pool of embittered and armed Sunnis fuelled the subsequent rebellion against the new Shiite-led government, and filled the ranks of the nationalist and Islamist insurgent groups fighting US forces.

Since February, when Sunni extremists demolished a revered Shiite shrine in the northern city of Samarra, Iraq has been engulfed in a vicious sectarian war between Sunni and Shiite factions that claims more than 100 lives per day.

Maliki and his US allies hope the national reconciliation conference will encourage some hardline elements to join the political process and isolate those determined to continue campaigns of bombing and mass murder.

Politically, the return to public life of former Baath officials would raise the hackles of hardline Shiite militants, whose majority community was persecuted by Saddam's Sunni-led regime.

Hadi al-Ameri, the head of the Badr Brigade, the militia wing of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, was dubious about the prime minister's promise, saying forgiveness was not only the gift of the state.

"Yes, the government should spread the spirit of forgiveness," he said. "But when the Baathists kill your brother, you yourself have to be the one to give amnesty."

Shiite militias like the Badr Brigade and the Mahdi Army have been implicated in the midnight assaults by gunmen against Sunnis, leaving their bound and tortured corpses in the streets.

"We are not talking about those who committed crimes against Iraq and humanity, we are not talking about the symbols of Baathism in the past," national security advisor Muwaffaq al-Rubaie was quick to point out afterwards.

Instead, he said, rehabilitation would be reserved for ordinary people who had to join the Baath to find work. "They should come back to the political system, they should come back to their jobs," said Rubaie.

Reintegration of Baathists is seen by many experts - and by US officials keen to speed the peace process and take home the 140,000 American troops deployed in Iraq - as a key first step in calming the insurgency.

Conference organisers were careful to describe this meeting as merely a first step, with future events hopefully casting a wider net to include more factions outside the government.