Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by CharmedPiper

Has anyone heard if the IAMB had their meetings. The only up-to-date documents I can find is this one.

http://www.iamb.info/pdf/iraq_confirm.pdf

Charmed I wonder if they even held the meetings since Iraq pulled that extension on them? Maybe thats why we can't find any articles on it.

Cheers!
DayDream

Originally Posted by greatstuff

...and, when the time comes, are we going to get Tshirts saying, "GOT DONG?"?

And if you lose your wallet full of Vietnamese currency, you would post signs that say "Have You Seen My DONG??"


Sorry Neno.... Comic relief.....This one's for me--->>

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

my avatar? its me holding up a 50# halibut.

AHA! Ok then. I'd have never got it. That's a big fish! I bet it was delicious. thanks.

Originally Posted by exitstrategy

IMO the death blow would be not dealing with domestic inflation and the security issues. The CBI is doing all the right things to check the inflation. It's just going to take a bit of time to see the real effects in the economy. The other shoe of this scenario is the security issue. The main reason for the inflation rise is the lack of commodities in the local markets. Until goods and services can flow freely in the economy, inflation will continue to be a problem.
Funny that Bush would delay his press conference to announce the new strategy for Iraq until after Maliki convenes the National Reconciliation Conference on the 16th. All the while, Maliki has postponed the NRC until he could conclude the details of the ICI. Maliki now has a bargaining chip with the political opposition in his government.

This is the main reason that I believe they should revalue their currency at a high rate. Right now the commodities are entering the country like a dripping faucet, they need to open the valve and the country will be flooded with commodities and the cash flow will start circulating like wild fire.

U.S. military's No. 2 in Iraq says jobs, services may be key to victory

The Associated Press
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
BAGHDAD, Iraq
America's outgoing No. 2 commander in Iraq has said that curbing unemployment and improving services would help reduce the violence in the country, warning that military muscle cannot win the war alone.

Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, in the last days of a second Iraq tour, also drew a picture of daunting challenges facing the U.S. military in Iraq as it strives to keep up with a constantly changing enemy whose knowledge of the terrain and culture give it an edge over the Americans.

At times during his farewell news conference Tuesday, Chiarelli — in charge of day-to-day combat operations throughout Iraq — sounded exacerbated, almost despairing, over what he said were misperceptions that American forces were fighting a conventional war or that they can achieve victory without improvements on other fronts.

"I know everybody wants us to charge on out there and make everything OK," he said. "But you cannot if you don't get those other things moving. I don't know why it's so hard to get people to understand that," he said, alluding to the need to create jobs and improve services in Iraq.

"I also get frustrated at times that everybody compares us to other conflicts we have fought, like somehow there is a defined enemy out there, a group of individuals that if you can just go out and either kill, capture or put in jail or do whatever, everything will be all right," he said. "I don't believe that, I don't believe that."

"There is no doubt in my mind that the soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines that we are bringing over here are trained for the fight at their hands. Is it tough? Yeah, it's really tough, it's very tough," he said.

Chiarelli's assessment of the U.S. military's predicament in Iraq came as President Bush was continuing efforts to formulate a new approach for Iraq following the release last week of a report by a bipartisan committee that described the situation here as "grave."

"We don't have to drive unemployment down to 4 percent like in the United States, that's not what I am talking about. We don't have to have 24 hours of electricity in Baghdad," he said. "But if we can increase the power in Baghdad back to 12 hours a day, it would be huge."

With reduced unemployment and fewer power cuts, he said, "I think we will see things here change in ways that are hard to believe right now when you see the level of violence out there."

Chiarelli's notion that the fight against the Sunni-led insurgency and efforts to disband Shiite militias would have a better chance of success if the use of force went hand-in-hand with stepped up economic activity is not new.

The U.S. military has tried this, without much success, from as early as 2003 — a time when many were upbeat about Iraq's future after the ouster of Saddam Hussein, with foreign aid money flowing in and a free-market economy swiftly taking hold after decades of state control and crippling U.N. sanctions.

For its part, the U.S. military has given out hundreds of contracts to local firms to repair schools and overhaul medical facilities, power transformers and roads. But with widespread corruption, mismanagement and relentless insurgent attacks, little has changed on the ground.

Nearly four years after Saddam's ouster, Iraq's economic woes are staggering.

Unemployment is thought to be anywhere between 20 percent and 60 percent, inflation above 50 percent and more than 1.5 million Iraqis, mostly professionals, have fled abroad, according to the Iraq Study Group report and U.N. figures. Lengthy power cuts are routine, fuel shortages are chronic and health care is close to collapse.

"Putting young men and middle-aged men to work will have a tremendous impact on this level of violence we are seeing in and around Baghdad and in other provinces," Chiarelli said.

He contended that because of military sweeps, life is returning to normal in some areas of the capital, including the mainly Sunni districts of Dora and Amariyah.

"People are out, about, walking around, markets are open, fruit stands are open and commerce is bustling," he said.

Residents of Dora say the area has been quiet in recent weeks, but that they are too afraid to leave their homes after dark and that a Shiite enclave in the district is frequently shelled by mortars fired from Sunni areas. Amariyah is quieter, but bodies of apparent victims of sectarian violence are found there almost daily, according to residents.

Violence in Baghdad districts often goes in cycles, with turbulent areas becoming quiet during and immediately after large-scale counterinsurgency operations — only to flare up again when the focus of the U.S. forces and their Iraqi allies shifts elsewhere.

Make Oil clinches lucrative deal to build refinery in Iraqi Kurdistan



By Michael Bluhm

Daily Star





BEIRUT: Lebanon's Make Oil Company is expected to start building a $3 billion oil refinery in Iraqi Kurdistan within one month, company management told The Daily Star on Tuesday.



The firm expects to sign a contract with the Iraqi Natural Resources Ministry in about three weeks and can start construction immediately in Dhouk, near Irbil, Make Oil general manager Ahmad Kheireddine said.



Construction should last between two and three years, and once completed the refinery will be able to handle 250,000 barrels per day, said Make Oil lead engineer Mahmoud Darwish. The company's investors for the Kurdistan refinery hail from the Gulf, Europe and the United States.



Make Oil has also proposed to build a smaller refinery in Dhouk that can launch operations in nine months, while work on the bigger facility continues, Kheireddine said.



Make Oil is also among the bidders to build a $2.2 billion refinery in Basra. That project would take about two and a half years to finish,and would have a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day, Darwish said.



Make Oil's biggest problem in completing the Basra deal is getting to Basra - because of the sectarian conflict in Iraq, company executives are unwilling to travel there to finish negotiating the deal. But Kheireddine expressed hope that the contract would be signed in two or three months if the situation allowed it.



In Kurdistan as in Basra, Make Oil has faced fierce competition from Gulf oil firms, many of which enjoy vast financial resources and experience. The Lebanese say their good relationships with the ministry and the Kurds have helped their cause, and they are eager to build factories and public-works projects in Kurdistan.

The Daily Star - Lebanon - The Middle East's Leading English Newspaper



The raging war in Iraq has not affected Make Oil's work, nor should the refinery be a target for attack, officials said.



"There's no danger in Kurdistan," Kheireddine said. "It's a separate territory. We're not taking a risk."



Make Oil officials also brushed aside talk of Kurdistan becoming an independent country - Turkey and the US will not allow the Kurds to secede, according to Make Oil deputy general manager Samer Zeitoun.



"This won't happen," Zeitoun said. "Even if this happens, we won't have any problem."



The Kurdistan project will be the first refinery built by Make Oil, which has offices in Germany, Spain, England, Sudan and Syria.



Aside from the Iraqi quagmire, oil prices will continue to climb for a long time thanks to China's strong economic growth, Kheireddine said.



"The Chinese need for oil is increasing," he said.



Despite the recent softness on the market, prices should rise again before the end of the year, Kheireddine said. A barrel of crude cost about $61 when trading opened Tuesday morning, down 20 percent for the year, but up about $5 per barrel since mid-November.

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Thank you for your comments. I have always enjoyed reading what you have to say. I to agree that Iraq needs a "shot" in the arm. I just listened to an outgoing General who said that increasing the economy was the key to reducing the violence, i.e. putting people to work. While removing dinar from the economy and increasing interest rates may not have the immediate effect we would like, I still think (an opinion) that in the longer term, these measures wil have an effect on inflation and the ultimate increased value of the currency by reducing the base money supply. As you can probably tell by now, I am a traditional supply and demand type of guy. Thank You and have a good day.

Agreed,

We all really know deep down inside this is not a war that can be won with weapons, but it can be won on economics, and a few generals have known this far longer than they were willing to say. What we are seeing now is those who understand the above are speaking their mind. Just as so many former military generals criticized Rumsfeld, more will come out and now admit we are not going to win this war in Iraq with military might.

I am too a traditional supply and demand type, and it is for this reason I enjoy your logical posts on the current CBI accomplishments. But once again, as we have seen, Iraqi's are whacki's when we compare to the western thinking, so we have to take this into account. Generally when we raise interest rates, it takes six months or so to have any impact on economy, but in Iraq, interest rates were raised three times, and it started longer than six months back. The results, there was none.

When you look at most Iraqi people, they have no savings, and if they do, it is not in any bank, so the interest rate increases do little to impact inflation, but what is strange is how the CBI didn't see this issue more clearly. Heck, it seems so obvious with the majority in Iraq at a sub poor level with not enough money for essentials.

As to supply and demand, yes, you are right, inflation in Iraq is directly tied to this factor. Refined oil, as in gas and heating is in short supply, and it has to come from neighbors. And as I see it, this is the key difference in Iraq which is so unusual and the main reason why we cannot accurately compare it with other economies. Rasing the value of dinar to .31 is the most logical jump start for it would solve most of the current economic issues facing the poor at the moment. Since it will take time to increase internal refined fuel shortages, this would give the poor the ability to purchase the most basic needs at less cost since it is all coming from neighboring countries at the moment.

Once this revalue is restored to former level, and with the FIL and now HCL in place, unemployment issues are resolved as billions start to flow into Iraq for rebuilding oil infrastructure which has been totally neglected by Saddam's regime. We see this already happening in Kurdistan, so the model is set to guide Baghdad into the future. It is all about money in Iraq, and although nothing will totally stop the violence, the only chance there is to make it livable for the majority is to revalue and give the economy the shot in the arm that is needed. Sure is fun to discuss all these issues, and especially with the analysts like yourself Wm. (g)

Happy Holiday Season to all, Mike

Clerics urge Muslims to back Iraq Sunnis - Worldnews.com

Originally Posted by abbey56

Hi,

Dont get me wrong I am not a negative but still nothing seems to be happening re the revalue, it would appear that all our speculations and inside knowledge has amounted to nothing. We are now at the the 13th December and we appear to be no further near to a revaluation than we were six months ago. The FIL was passed over two months ago, the HCL maybe in the pipeline, the poor Iraqi people were promised 10,000 dinar and have still to receive it. The dinar has slowly come down in the last week or so and if this goes on it will take at least a year to get anywhere near a figure worthwhile. I agree that if they bring in the FIL and HCL and dont do anything then Iraq will be open to being bought up cheaply but nothing seems to be happening. Does anyone really have any positive info.

The positive info is that compared to six months ago, we have made progress. If my memory serves me correctly, the value was at 1470 then or there abouts, and today it is at 1414. The CBI isn't there to please those of us who are invested in their currency, they are there to make sure the economy in Iraq remains strong, and if possible, gets even stronger. That knowledge in and of itself should be good news to us all. Patience is a virtue, unfortunately, microwave ovens have spoiled us all and we have a tendency to demand whatever it is NOW. Sometimes, the best approach is to use a "slow cooker". For instance, have you ever tried Bar-B-Cued Ribs that have been cooked too fast? They're tough and hard to eat, and if there's anything that is difficult to enjoy it's tough "baby-back ribs". It's the same way with a good roast. It's best to set the oven at a lower temperature, and give it a little more time, then the meat melts in your mouth. Man......is it lunch time yet? Hey....Lunch time will get here, same as the appreciation of this investment...it's on a slow cooker, but there will be a time to take it off the slow cooker. Sometimes, your guests show up before the roast is done, and the way mom always handled that was she would put out a plate of appetizers, that way she didn't have to interrupt the roast and take the chance of it turning out tough. Our hors d'oeuvres, if you will, are the small incremental changes in the value of the roast, sorry, dinar....man, is lunch time here yet.

Originally Posted by boomcreek

It seems to me, sooner or later, they are going to reach the point of "diminishing reurns" where those who are holding dinar calculate the cost of waiting to exchange versus running out of patience and exchanging at the current value of 1414 or whatever rate has been established. Of course, the law of "diminishing returns" applies to both sides of the equation, both the CBI and investor have a point at which it is no longer valuable enough for them to wait. The investor waiting to exchange, and the CBI making it attractive enough for those practicing patience to bring their investment in. The initial revalue rate is the last ditch effort to pull as much dinar in as possible, because based on what we all know about Iraq's resources, if they use that in the equation to calculate its value, the dinar will increase in value from its initial revaluation and will therefore cost the CBI more to redeem.

I'm going out on the stupid limb for a sec but I'm trying to find the relevency of a "reval" and making it "convertible". does one have to do with the other? They need it on the forex in order to have commerce right? then the reval is a seperate issue all together no? is one holding the other up?