Thread: Iraq/Dinar News up until March 18th Midnight ctz

Originally Posted by Adster

Bye Maliki you useless waste of space. Go kiss Sadr's butt, again. Come on Allawi, you the man as a proud Kurd and businessman, and will do the right thing by your people.


Iraqi leader fears ouster over oil money 1 hour, 43 minutes ago

BAGHDAD - Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki fears the Americans will torpedo his government if parliament does not pass a law to fairly divvy up the country's oil wealth among Iraqis by the end of June, close associates of the leader told The Associated Press on Tuesday.


The legislature has not even taken up the draft measure, which is only one of several U.S. benchmarks that are seen by al-Maliki as key to continued American support, a crucial need for the survival of his troubled administration.

Aside from the oil law, the associates said, American officials have told the hardline Shiite Muslim prime minister that they want an Iraqi government in place by year's end acceptable to the country's Sunni Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt.

"They have said it must be secular and inclusive," one al-Maliki associate said.

To that end, al-Maliki made an unannounced visit Tuesday to Ramadi, the Sunni Arab insurgent stronghold, to meet with tribal leaders, the provincial governor and security chiefs in a bid to signal his willingness for reconciliation to end the bitter sectarian war that has riven
Iraq for more than a year.

Compounding al-Maliki's fears about a withdrawal of American support were visits to Saudi Arabia by two key political figures in an admitted bid to win support for a major Iraqi political realignment. Saudi Arabia is a major U.S. ally and oil supplier.

Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a Shiite Muslim, flew to the Saudi capital Tuesday, a day after the arrival there of Masoud Barzani, leader of Iraq's largely autonomous Kurdish region. Most Kurds are Sunni Muslims.

"Allawi is there to enlist support for a new political front that rises above sectarian structures now in place," the former prime minister's spokesman, Izzat al-Shahbandar, told the AP.

Barzani spokesman Abdul-Khaleq Zanganah said the two Iraqis met in Kurdistan before the trip for talks on forming a "national front to take over for the political bloc now supporting al-Maliki."

It appears certain the United States was informed about the Allawi and Barzani opening to the Saudis, who are deeply concerned that al-Maliki could become a puppet of
Iran, the Shiite theocracy on Iraq's eastern border they view as a threat to the region's stability.

Washington has been reported working more closely with Sunni Arab governments to encourage them to take a greater role in Iraq, particularly in reining in the Sunni insurgency that has killed thousands of U.S. soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqi Shiites.

The Bush administration is believed to be trying to win support for its operations in Iraq among Arab neighbors by assuring a greater future role for the Sunni minority that ran the country until the U.S. invasion ousted
Saddam Hussein four years ago.

One al-Maliki confidant said the Americans had voiced displeasure with the prime minister's government even though he has managed so far to blunt major resistance from the Mahdi Army militia to the joint U.S.-Iraqi security operation in Baghdad. The Shiite militia is loyal to anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose political backing secured the premiership for al-Maliki.

"They have said they are frustrated that he has done nothing to oust the Sadrists, that the oil law has not moved forward, that there is no genuine effort on reconciliation and no movement on new regional elections," said the official, who like the other associates agreed to discuss the situation only if not quoted by name because of the political sensitivities.

Passage of the oil law, which seeks a fair distribution of revenues among all Iraq's sectarian and ethnic groups, has become a major issue for the United States, which had initially counted on financing Iraq's post-invasion reconstruction with oil revenues.

But the decrepit oil infrastructure and violence have left the country producing oil at about the same levels as before the war, at best, and those figures are well below production before the 1991
Gulf War that resulted in U.N. sanctions against the Iraqi oil industry.

The major Sunni bloc in parliament, along with Allawi loyalists in the Shiite bloc, openly oppose the draft measure. Al-Maliki also has lost the backing of the Shiite Fadila Party, and independent Shiite members are split on the bill. Those willing to speak about their opposition voice fears about what they see as too much possible foreign involvement and profit sharing.

The al-Maliki associates said U.S. officials, who they would not name, told the prime minister that
President Bush was committed to the current government but continued White House support depended on positive action on all the benchmarks — especially the oil law and sectarian reconciliation — by the close of this parliamentary session June 30.

"Al-Maliki is committed to meeting the deadline because he is convinced he would not survive in power without U.S. support," one of the associates said.

Standing in the way of forward movement is a recalcitrant Cabinet, which al-Maliki has promised to reshuffle by the end of this week. So far, however, he is at loggerheads with the political groupings in parliament that are threatening to withdraw support for the prime minister if he does not allow the blocs to name replacements for Cabinet positions.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070313..._mi_ea/iraq_oil

What an absolute mess Maliki has made of things.

Originally Posted by neno

Isn't that the one that is .310 IQD? If you answer yes to this, then what is your memory remember the last exchange rate value in USD was per dinar pre-invasion? Thanks.

The dinar was trading anything from $1.60 to 32 cents from 1996 to 2003. The previous rate of $3.22 per dinar was the 80s rate and the one still held on both sets of books. I have heard and read this is the rate they intend to get back to. And they will.

A previous post. But relevent.


Hello everyone. Sorry I have been away for a while. Many good thngs have happen to us in the last few weeks. I realize there are differences of opinion about the removal of currency from the economy, but given the 70% inflation rate that has been posted, I continue to feel the CBI has been/is continuing to remove large amounts of currency from the economy which is exactly what they should be doing in this situation. We predicted last Novemebr that this position would be supported by a “drying” up of the currency due to demand and and the fact that the CBI has not sold any appreciable amount of dinar since November. Soft evidence suggests that banks and dealers are finding dinar harder to get and the street value is over 20% more expensive than the offical exchange rate. A very unusal situation in the world today. Removal of currency from an economy is a textbook intervention to deal with inflation. What makes it difficult to accomplish is that most countries do not have the resources to remove currency. Iraq apparently has the wealth to accomplish this. We have at least one reliable report that inflation is now around 30%. We will need to confirm this with other reports. But if true, then the monetary interventions by the CBI are/is being effective. However, since monetary interventions take a while to move through an economy, any reduction of the inflation rate at this time would be due to interventions by the CBI during 2006, meaning we still may not being seeing the full effect of the dramatic reductions in the monetary base that has taken place since November 2nd. So look for better inflation rates. I think we will continue the theme that a reduction in the monetary base is what needed to happen and is a monetary intervention that the CBI has/is continuing. Exactly what we would want to see in an inflationary situation and prior to a bold adjustment. We still have a currency that is undervalued and an artificial rate that lacks purchasing power for the iraqi people. Supply and demand factors will continue to operate and demand may continue to advance since the currency is approaching a 13% increase in value. All of the world now nows about this rise in value. When conbined with the political issues, HCL, FIL, WTO membership, Budget, and the unexplained payment of 52B to the world bank, these factors taken together places us in the very best position we have ever been to see this currency rise and rise fast, i.e. bold adjust. Thank You.

Most of the IMF's lending falls into three different categories:

* Stand-By Arrangements are designed to deal mainly with short-term balance of payments problems. The IMF's largest loans fall into this category. In 1997, the IMF introduced the Supplemental Reserve Facility, under which it can quickly provide large loans with very short maturities to countries going through a capital account crisis.
* The IMF introduced the Extended Fund Facility to help countries address balance of payments difficulties related partly to structural problems that may take longer to correct than macroeconomic imbalances. A program supported by an extended arrangement usually includes measures to improve the way markets and the supply side of the economy function, such as tax and financial sector reforms, privatization of public enterprises, and steps to make labor markets more flexible.
* Under its Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, the IMF provides concessional loans—loans with an annual interest rate of 0.5 percent and a maturity of 10 years—to its poorest member countries. The majority of the IMF's loans now fall into this category. In 2005, it approved the establishment of the Exogenous Shocks Facility, under which it can give lowincome countries that are not receiving funds under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and that are suffering a balance of payments problem because of a shock beyond their control, quick access to funds on a concessional basis.
The IMF also provides Emergency Assistance to countries coping with balance of payments problems caused by natural disasters or military conflicts. The interest rates are subsidized for low-income countries.
The Trade Integration Mechanism allows the IMF to provide loans under one of its facilities to a developing country whose balance of payments suffers because of multilateral trade liberalization, either because its export earnings decline when it loses preferential access to certain markets or because prices for food imports go up when agricultural subsidies are eliminated.

Hello everyone. Dispite our previous dicussions about that separatness between the CBI and the GOI we seem to lose site of the fact that monetary policy is not dependent on politicians and the GOI. Laws such as the HCL, WTO, FIL are very important to Iraq as a whole, but, the CBI has ben effecting monetary policy in Iraq for a couple of years now without regard as to what laws are being passed or the security situation or what anything else happens. As we have said before, most Americans would be surprised as to how independent our central bank is ( FED Reserve System). Since the CBI is patterned after ours, it is poor thinking to believe that there is a lock step relationship between anything the GOI does and the monetary policy of the CBI. Therefore, to assume that any law, the HCL, the FIL, the SBA etc. has a direct and lock step relationship with the monetary policy of the CBI denotes a lack of understanding of central bank policies and how modern central bank policies are in effect. The confusion of today is unwarranted. The CBI continues to remove vast amounts of dinar from the economy and apparently has a tareget rate that they are striving too. 7 trillion or more? Soon, we will find out. But, to get too excited about the opnions and the misinformation we are recieving, would be premature. The economic fundamentals are still in our favor and despite the whinning and negativism, its all works for us. So, slow down, take a deep breath and have another drink. Thank you.

Originally Posted by Adster

The dinar was trading anything from $1.60 to 32 cents from 1996 to 2003. The previous rate of $3.22 per dinar was the 80s rate and the one still held on both sets of books. I have heard and read this is the rate they intend to get back to. And they will.

Just double and triple checking. Thanks Again.

Now the previous rate of the 80's that they intend to get back too, would this be considered the Norm?

Are would the exchange values between 1996 and 2003 be considered the Norm?

Originally Posted by neno

Just double and triple checking. Thanks Again.

Now the previous rate of the 80's that they intend to get back too, would this be considered the Norm?

Are would the exchange values between 1996 and 2003 be considered the Norm?

By all accounts and what the articles have stated with parity with the dollar, equal with the dollar, they are looking for a reval between a dollar and a $1.30 initially IMO. Within 2 to 3 years they will be back to $3.22.

Adster, NENO and WM.Knowles you rock! Keep the clan together! You guys help me to "keep the faith". SOON VERY SOON!!!!

Originally Posted by Adster

Mike,

Let's not forget their 'real rate' which is on the CBI books and on the Bank of Baghdad site which is $3.22. This is what they want get back to. Why have they kept two sets of books.......

Funny,

Yes, wouldn't it be nice if the normal which has been bantered about was actually $3.22, then we would all be whooting and hooting. It sure will be interesting to see what happens after all this talk by officials.

Good luck to all, Mike

Originally Posted by Offshore-Wealth.com

Funny,

Yes, wouldn't it be nice if the normal which has been bantered about was actually $3.22, then we would all be whooting and hooting. It sure will be interesting to see what happens after all this talk by officials.

Good luck to all, Mike

We'd all take 33 cents for an initial reval, but it will be higher, convinced of it. Read too many articles, spoken to too many to not see it. Time will tell, remember, we started all of this here, and we will see it through and celebrate with plenty of beers at the party. I wanna hear you say 'interesting' at so many different beers on display behind the bar as we try every one of them!!

Trust you'll be up for it?

Originally Posted by Adster

We'd all take 33 cents for an initial reval, but it will be higher, convinced of it. Read too many articles, spoken to too many to not see it. Time will tell, remember, we started all of this here, and we will see it through and celebrate with plenty of beers at the party. I wanna hear you say 'interesting' at so many different beers on display behind the bar as we try every one of them!!

Trust you'll be up for it?

Just because I am in Australia dont forget me! I will travel anywhere for a beer!lol

Originally Posted by rvalreadydang

I didn't notice, is there an article about the UN meeting on Friday to discuss the compact?

this is all i could find

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he plans to host a meeting so the Iraqi government can brief states on Iraq Compact plan. Dow Jones Newswires - 13Mar 05:20GMT

AHEM, QUOTING MYSELF IN HOPES OF GETTING SOME FEEDBACK HERE!

ANYONE?