The US stock market review for December 21, 2010
On Monday the US trading was carried out within narrow ranges, furthermore the strong decline in American Express quotes dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. At the end of the trading day the DJIA decreased by 13.78 points, or by 0.12%, to 11478.13 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose by 6.59 points, or by 0.25%, to 2649.56 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 grew by 3.17 points, or 0.25%, to 1247.08. According to investors, the market was affected by the opposing forces. On one hand, the positive economic signals are presented. However, they are leveled by the municipal bonds, situation in Europe and Korea. The concerns over the debt crisis in Europe and weekend tension over South Korea’s artillery drill moved to background during the session. During the most part of trading the stock indices were slightly increasing and declining, nevertheless, the Dow closed down. This drop was caused by the plunge in American Express shares that lost $1.51, or 3.4%, to $42.50. The company became more exposed after last week the Federal Reserve System proposed an offer regarding the interbank commissions on debit cards. Last week the stock of Visa and MasterCard descended following the FRS proposal. Nevertheless, the investors started to worry only on Monday about these measures for American Express. The stocks of other financial companies gained on Monday. J.P. Morgan Chase quotes rose by 28 cents, or by 0.7%, to $39.95, and Bank of America securities edged up 5 cents, or 0.4%, to $12.62.
3M stocks also shown the strong dynamics, having ascended by 97 cents, or 1.1%, to $87.34 after the company announced that it is discussing with its chief executive George Buckley the question about the successor.
Boeing quotes edged lower $1.76, or 2.7%, to $63.27 following the statement of chief executive of Qatar Airways that the company could cancel the orders for 787 Dreamliner if there are further delays of delivery. AT&T shares fell by 8 cents, or by 0.3%, to $29.13. The company said it will pay $1.93 million for spectrum licenses from Qualcomm as AT&T is trying to strengthen its positions in 4G service. Qualcomm plans to curtail the provision of mobile video services. The shares of the company shed 2 cents to $49.44. These days the market moves in an uptrend. For a week the DJIA rose by 0.7%, for third week in a row. Over a year the index increased by more than 10%. The investors, inspired by the recent US macroeconomic data, expect that the advance will last till the end of the year. However, the volume of trading will probably remain low this week because of the holidays, which can intensify the market fluctuations.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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1 Attachment(s)
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 21, 2010
GBP/JPY has finished wave 131.61-129.55 (wave A - colored red in the chart) and is now developing corrective wave B. The targets of the correction are Fibonacci retracements of 131.61-129.55 and 130.62-129.55.
Resistances:
- 130.21 = .618 retracement
- 130.34 = .382 ret
- 130.58 = .50 ret
- 130.82 = .618 ret
If the price breaks below 129.55 to continue the downtrend the nearest target will be the expansions (objective point) off 133.03-130.75-131.61.
Support:
- 129.33 = objective point (OP)
More targets will be available when the size of the upwave is known.
Attachment 1291
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 22, 2010
GBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave C there are A-B-C subwaves (colored red) with subwave C still developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 133.03-130.75-131.61 (A-B waves), 131.61-129.55-130.30 (A-B subwaves).
Supports:
- 129.93 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 128.24 = objective point (OP)
- 127.92 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps moving up its resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 131.61-129.23, and 130.30-129.23.
Resistances:
- 129.76 = .50 retracement
- 129.89 = .618 ret
- 130.14 = .382 ret
- 130.42 = .50 ret
- 130.70 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2010...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscilaltor to open short positions. The overbought area lies 20 pips away and that is 129.76, 129.89 retracements.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Candlestick analysis of the AUD/USD for December 22
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A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct. However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9710, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Technical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 22, 2010
Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0167, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is making a rebound after it failed to break the support level 1.0212. Earlier the USD/CAD rebounded from the support level of 1.0000, which is also a bottom of a wide trading range.
The uprising movement is supported by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks through the level of 1.0290, then this will lead to uprising movement with a target to 1.0380. The breakthrough of 1.0380 will mean that a pullback from 1.0680 ended and further advance should be expected. Moreover, a breakout of 1.0380 will indicate the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
Nonetheless, a breakthrough of support level of 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach the 0.9930 level.
In a midterm, the currency pair will probably remain within the bounds of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. In case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm the end of consolidation and that the downtrend from 1.3063 is breached. In this case it is forecasted that the USD/CAD will move up to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Candlestick analysis of the USD/CHF for December 22
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF is testing the support level of 0.9559 again. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish as earlier the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view. The breakout of 0.9559 will target the currency pair to 0.9462.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9736 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 23, 2010
AUD/USD has finished wave 4 (0.9995-0.9953) and is now moving within wave 5 of the medium term uptrend - colored red in the chart. Wave 5 consists of A-B-C subwaves with subwave C still developing - colored yellow in the chart.
The targets above the current level are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9539-1.0031-0.9833 (waves A-B of larger degree), 0.9833-0.9930-0.9843 (waves 1-2), 0.9843-0.9995 (waves 3-4), 0.9953-1.0013-0.9987 (subwave A and B in 5).
Resistances:
- 1.0047 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and objective point (OP)
- 1.0084 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0097 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0105 = OP
- 1.0137 = COP
- 1.0144 = SXOP
If the price reverses down for a correction the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up starting from 0.9953 - this wave is not developed yet.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2010...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator in conjunction with Fib supports. The oversold area is 20-25 pips away from the current price.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 23, 2010
GBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave C there are A-B-C subwaves (colored red) with subwave C still developing. And there are 5 waves of still smaller degree in the latter C subwave - colored yellow in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 133.03-130.75-131.61 (A-B waves), 131.61-129.55-130.30 (A-B subwaves), 130.30-129.23-129.72 (waves 1-2), 129.72-128.28-128.70 (waves 3-4).
Supports:
- 127.99-92 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP)
- 127.81 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 127.26 = objective point (OP)
- 126.97-92 = confluence area of XOP and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses up its resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the downwave from 130.30 - this wave is not developed yet.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2010...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator in conjunction with Fib resistances. The overbought area is 30-40 pips away from the current price.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Candlestick analysis of the AUD/USD for December 23
The AUD/USD is testing the resistance level near 1.0024. A breakout of this resistance level will indicate further upside movement targeted for this year’s high 1.0182.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound took place after a downside movement. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9710, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Technical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 23
Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is rolling back after it failed to break through the resistance level of 1.0212. However, EMA (55) may support the pair. Earlier the USD/CAD has rebounded from the support level of 1.0000, which is a bottom of a wide trading range.
The uprising movement is confirmed by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks out 1.0259, then this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0380. Further the breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
Nevertheless, the breakout of the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach 0.9930.
In a midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Candlestick analysis of the GBP/USD for December 27, 2010
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is consolidating after a drop to 1.5355. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bearish as the downtrend still remains. Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 27, 2010
GBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend (the wave and expansions off A-B waves are colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave C there are four subwaves (colored red) and potential subwave 5 that is developing now. Within subwave 5 there are still smaller A-B-C waves - colored orange red. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 135.03-126.43-134.19, 134.19-129.33-133.03, 133.03-130.75-131.61 (waves 1-2), 131.61-127.43-128.54 (waves 3-4), 128.54-127.69-128.41 (subwaves A-B within wave 5), 128.41-127.79-128.06 (still smaller waves).
Supports:
- 127.44 = objective point (OP)
- 127.06-03 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP)
- 126.44 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 126.18 = SXOP
- 125.96 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 131.61-127.43.
Resistances:
- 129.03 = .382 retracement
- 129.52 = .50 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2010...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the prevailing trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator. The overbought area is 30-40 pips away from the current price.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis at instaforex.com