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USD/CHF candlestick analysis for December 30, 2010
The USD/CHF currency pair has been refreshing all-time highs amid low trading volumes. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. The breakout of the support level 0.9500 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9400 with 0.9350 as the next traget.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9669 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2010...cture%2019.png
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The zero level is just within some 5 pips away from the current price, the oversold area is 15-20 pips away from the current price - and corresponds to 1.0089 support.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for December 30, 2010
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is approaching the upper limit of the downtrend. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish. Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the 1.5650 level is broken it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2010...cture%2018.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD candlestick analysis for December 30, 2010
The AUD/USD has reached a new all-time high 1.0197.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound took place after a downside movement. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9710, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2010...cture%2017.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The USD/JPY wave analysis for December 30, 2010
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20101230/JPY_h4.gif
Highly dynamical decrease of the USD/JPY pair allowed the price to fall even deeper than expected. At the same time, in spite of the seemingly complete 5-wave structure of the whole downtrend, started December 15, the yen may decrease further and reach 81.40 81.20 levels. However, taking MACD divergence into account, a reversal in favor of the dollar may occur anytime.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD wave analysis for December 30, 2010
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20101230/EUR_h4.gif
In general the EUR/USD pair situation has been developing as expected, but it was more dynamic. As a result we can see that the d wave of the supposed triangle is completed and the growth from the 1.3080 level will be limited by its future e wave. At the same time, forthcoming holidays might provide the conditions for the wave of the correction triangle to become more complex and prolonged, which will allow the price to advance to levels above the 34 figure.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 30, 2010
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20101230/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating uncertain holiday movement, thus it is recommended to refrain from trading. The buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph and the price managed to fixate inside the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the upside movement is 1.3270 the second resistance level. If the second resistance level is passed the next target will be the third resistance level of 1.3340. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3165), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and shows bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the beginning of the upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, thus pointing to the current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3270, in case this level is passed the target will be 1.3340. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3165. In case the MACD reverses down long positions should be cut manually.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen red line
Kijun-Sen blue line
Senkou Span A light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Downwards Movement , December 31, 2010 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20101231/audiis.gif
AUD/USD
In the last two weeks trading, the AUD/USD experienced much bullishness, as it stands now at 1.0175. Forex traders can take advantage of this imminent downward movement by entering short positions at an excellent entry price.
It is best to place the sell order at a higher, more attractive rate (1.0175) in case the pair continues moving in a shuffle before it continues its downward movement. As such, the 1.0190 resistance weekly level can serve for this purpose. That said, the pair can move downwards at the current level without any correction. Therefore, a breach in the support level at 1.0090 will serve as another trigger for a sell deal with a final exit goal for the position market at 0.9700 AUD/USD
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/CHF,Expect an Upward Movement in the Pair , December 31, 2010 (Weekly Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20101231/gbpchh.gif
British Pound - Swiss Franc
The GBP/CHF pair, poised in an unusual negative momentum, has closed the trading day yesterday at the meaningful support level of 1.4400. This creates a strong probability for the beginning of a technical correction for the aggressive wave of downwards movements, and perhaps even a trend reversal.
A correct timing of the upwards movements would be for the case of breaching the minor trend line that has been accompanying the pair since the beginning of the wave of downwards movements. The 1.4990 and 1.5180 resistance levels can form as key points for partial realizations, while the high resistance level at 1.5900 can form a final, full realization goal on the position.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, December 31, 2010
A mixed trend has been recorded this morning on Asia's stock markets due to yesterday's index declines on Wall Street. The Tokyo stock exchange is closed to day, and trading is expected to be very limited in Europe, with the German and British stock markets closed for New Year's Eve.
In the macroeconomic arena, several positive economic data have been published yesterday in the United States. The ISM has announced that the rate of growth in business activity in the Chicago area had leaped up surprisingly in December to a 22-year high, having climbed to a level of 68.6 points as opposed to 62.5 points in November. Economists have predicted a descent to a level of 61 points.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics had announced yesterday that the amount of new unemployment claims in the United States has declined last week by 34 thousand to a rate of 388 thousand - the lowest rate since July 2008. The descent recorded was significantly higher than the predictions of economists for 415 thousand new claims.
Also in the macroeconomic sphere, the real estate agents' association of the United States had announced that the amount of existing home sales in that country had grown in November by 3.5%, after a 10% rise in October. The rise was sharper than predicted by economists, who expected a rise of only 0.8%. That said, the amount of sales in November was 5% lower than in November 2009.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 3, 2011
The AUD/USD is continuing to reach all-time highs.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound took place after a downside movement. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2013.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 3, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has failed to break through the resistance level at 1.5650 to rebound further. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5650 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2015.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 3, 2011
Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9820, 0.9750
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has successfully broken through the support level near 0.9980-1.0000. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
Most of 2010 this level has demonstrated substantial demand since Canadian companies tend to buy dollars for lower price. However, low trading volume caused exaggerated fluctuations of this currency pair last week. Therefore the bears have easily broken the 0.9980 level. As mentioned before, the breakout of support level at 0.99880 will allow this pair to reach 0.9930 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2012.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
The EUR/GBP currency pair ended the previous week on the upside amid typical end of month purchases.
Nevertheless, as mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rollback took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2017.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 3, 2011
USD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 1, 2011
The USD/CHF currency pair is continuing to reach all-time lows. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. The breakout of the support level 0.9350 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9300 with 0.9250 as the next target.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9560 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9669.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2016.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD Continuing Upward Trend January 03, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110103/gbeee.gif
GBP/USD
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair is expected to continue moving north at least up to the 1.5850 resistance level. The stop loss order may be placed slightly under the last low and 200-day moving average around 1.5330 United States dollars for one British pound. We will note here the impressive positive deviation on the MACD indicator, supporting the bullish prediction for the pair.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 03 to January 07, 2011
_____WEEKLY______
Weekly - R3 = 1.6041
Weekly - R2 = 1.5852
Weekly - R1 = 1.5721
Weekly Pivot = 1.5532
Weekly - S1 = 1.5401
Weekly - S2 = 1.5212
Weekly - S3 = 1.5081
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110103/wgbeee.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6451
Monthly - R2 = 1.6180
Monthly - R1 = 1.5885
Monthly Pivot = 1.5614
Monthly - S1 = 1.5319
Monthly - S2 = 1.5048
Monthly - S3 = 1.4753
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110103/mgbeee.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 03, 2011
Asia's stock markets opened the New Year with index rises this morning, this due to optimism regarding the world economic recovery in 2011, and the moderation of political activity in China. As such, Hong Kong was up by 1.4%, Seoul added 0.7%, Singapore climbed by 1.2% and Taiwan climbed 0.5%. In Japan, Australia, China and Thailand the stock markets are closed today for the holidays.
In the global macroeconomic sphere, on Saturday it has been reported that the Chinese procurement managers' index had descended for the first time in five months, suggesting that government's efforts to cool off the economy are beginning to bear fruit. The index had descended to a level of 53.9 points in December, as compared to 55.2 points in November.
This week investors and economists are expected to be concerned about the U.S. labor market, with the ADP employment report tracking the number of jobs in the private non-agricultural sector, expected to be published on Wednesday. It is also expected to point an improvement in the labor market. On Friday the Fed's monthly employment report is scheduled to be published, expected to point to a slight decline in U.S. unemployment to a level of 9.7% and a growth of 140 thousand jobs. Great attention will also be paid to the Federal Reserve Chairman's Senate testimony on Friday, which may discuss the possibility of extending quantitative easing into the coming year as well.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 3, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110103/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating upwards movement. The buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the upside movement is 1.3397 the target level. If this level is passed the next target will be the resistance level at 1.3600. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3165), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, thus pointing to the current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3397; in case this level is passed the target will be 1.3600. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3248. In case the MACD reverses down long positions should be cut manually.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen red line
Kijun-Sen blue line
Senkou Span A light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 3, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110103/GBP_h4.gif
High volatility during the last trading day of the year allowed the GBP/USD pair to advance by more than two figures. Current situation implies that the December 28 low (1.5345) is completing the downward section having developed since December 14. This, in its turn, might denote formation of the C wave of November-December downward correction. If so, we can suppose that the pound will advance further in the direction of the 1.5800-1.5820 levels.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 4, 2011
Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9820, 0.9750
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has dropped to 0.9891. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
As mentioned before, low trading volume caused exaggerated fluctuations of this currency pair last week. Therefore the bears have easily broken the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%206.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011
The USD/CHF currency pair is continuing to reach all-time lows. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. The breakout of the support level 0.9350 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9300 with 0.9250 as the next target.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9560 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9669.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011
The AUD/USD is rolling back after reaching a new all-time high. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bullish due to the continuing uptrend.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after a downside movement took place. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has failed to break through the resistance level at 1.5650 to rebound further. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5650 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%208.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. The USD/JPY is expected to move upwards to the resistance level 82.85, where 50.0 Fibonacci correction level is located.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 04, 2011
Asia's stock markets have climbed this morning to a high of two and a half years based on the positive trend recorded yesterday at Wall Street. As such, Japan's Nikkei was up by 1.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed about 0.5%, the Shanghai stock exchange strengthened by about 1.3%, whereas the South Korean KRX climbed by 0.4%.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, ISM had reported yesterday that activity in the United States manufacturing sector had increased this December for the 17th month running, expanding at the highest rate in the last 7 month, climbing in December to a level of 57 points, as compared to 56.6 points in the previous month. This climb was predicted by economists. Construction expenditures in the United States grew for the third month running, this according to macroeconomic data published today in the United States.
The American Department of Commerce reported yesterday that construction expenditures in the United States rose in November by about 0.4%, a third monthly rise in a row. This rise was sharper than the 0.2% rise predicted by economists.
The European stock markets took 2011 by storm, recording an extremely hard daily rise due to sharper than expected rise in activity in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. By the daily close, the Frankfurt exchange closed at a 1.1% rise, Paris leaped up by 2.5%, Milano climbed 1.3%, while no trade took place in London yesterday due to continued New Year's holidays.
As we said, the Market Economics Research Company announced yesterday that the index of manufacturing activity in the Eurozone rose in December to a level of 57.1 points, as compared to 55.3 in the previous months, beating preliminary estimates that only a 56.8 climb would occur.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 4, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110104/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating upwards movement. The buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the upside movement is 1.3502 the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3639. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3255), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are narrowing and directed up, thus pointing to the correction against the current upside movement. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current correction movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3502; in case this level is passed the target will be 1.3639. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3255. Long positions should be opened only in case the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen red line
Kijun-Sen blue line
Senkou Span A light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Upwards Breach is Expected Janaury 03, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110104/cadd.gif
USD/CAD
The USD/CAD pair is beginning to form a bottom after failing to breach the strong support level around 0.9900. The trend line that accompanied the wave of downwards movements since it began about two weeks ago, will form a buy trigger for us should it be breached from below.
An upwards breach through the trend line is expected to pave the way back to a balance level of 1.0000, and later on even to a resistance level around 1.0070. The stop loss movement can be placed in a relative proximity, slightly under the last local low around 0.9860.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 03 to January 07, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.3855
Weekly - R2 = 1.3639
Weekly - R1 = 1.3502
Weekly Pivot = 1.3286
Weekly - S1 = 1.3149
Weekly - S2 = 1.2933
Weekly - S3 = 1.2796
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_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4111
Monthly - R2 = 1.3804
Monthly - R1 = 1.3584
Monthly Pivot = 1.3277
Monthly - S1 = 1.3057
Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
Monthly - S3 = 1.2530
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Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
This week the EUR/GBP currency pair has been trading on the downside after it could not break the support level at 0.8650. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rollback took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011
The AUD/USD is rolling back further after reaching a new all-time high. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bullish due to the continuing uptrend.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after a downside movement took place. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011
The USD/JPY pair has failed to break the Fibonacci correction level at 38.2 to rebound further.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. The USD/JPY is expected to move upwards to the resistance level 82.85, where 50.0 Fibonacci correction level is located.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011
USD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011
The USD/CHF currency pair is testing the upper limit of the downtrend. However, the viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. As mentioned before, breakout of the support level 0.9350 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9300 with 0.9250 as the next target.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9560 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9669.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...ure%209(1).png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 5, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9750, 0.9700
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is making a strong rebound after a drop to 0.9891. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
As mentioned before, low trading volume caused exaggerated fluctuations of this currency pair last week. Therefore the bears have easily broken the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, January 05, 2011
The leading indexes of Asia's stock markets are recording the first index decline in eight days this morning. Australia's stock market recorded a descent of 0.6%, Tokyo's Nikkei dropped 0.25%, the Chinese Shanghai exchange dropped 0.35%, the Korean KRX dropped 0.2%, while the Hang Seng recorded a light 0.1% rise.
In the macroeconomic sector, the American Department of Commerce has reported yesterday that factory orders in the United States had risen in an unexpected manner in November, at the sharpest rate in the last eight month. The Department pointed out that this is another sign of the economic recovery in the United States. The protocol of the last Federal Reserve meeting published yesterday confirms that despite the recovery, the economy is still weak and requires monetary support.
Commodity prices took a sharp dive yesterday, with crude oil dropping 2.4% to as two-week low, below the level of 90 United States dollars per barrel of oil, while the price of gold dropped by 3.1% to 1,378 United States dollars per ounce of gold the sharpest decline in the two months, this due to signs of economic recovery in the United States reducing the demand for commodities.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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CHF/JPY Signs of Reversing the Downward Trend January 05, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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CHF/JPY
After an impressive upwards movement that led the Swiss Frank Japanese Yen pair to the 88.00 high, we can predict a reversal of the positive trend and move to a wave of downwards movement, especially due to the fact the pair has failed twice to breach the major resistance level at 88.00. That said, the daily graph on the pair shows that the 86.25 strong support level is closing in on the pair from below.
The two strong levels surrounding the pair have caused it to move in a shuffle, though we estimate that it is only a matter of time before the pair breaches the support level, beginning a new downwards trend. While the final goal for the expected downwards movement is positioned only at 82.30, the pair is expected to meet the secondary weekly support level around 85.15, which will serve as a test on its way down.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 03 to January 07, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.0591
Weekly - R2 = 1.0423
Weekly - R1 = 1.0326
Weekly Pivot = 1.0158
Weekly - S1 = 1.0061
Weekly - S2 = 0.9893
Weekly - S3 = 0.9796
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_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1192
Monthly - R2 = 1.0724
Monthly - R1 = 1.0476
Monthly Pivot = 1.0008
Monthly - S1 = 0.9760
Monthly - S2 = 0.9292
Monthly - S3 = 0.9044
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Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 6, 2011
The AUD/USD currency pair is declining further from the 1.0255 level. As mentioned before, if the AUD/USD breaks through the support level at 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after a downside movement took place. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 6, 2011
The USD/JPY pair has successfully broken the resistance level 82.8 and the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...ure%205(1).png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 6, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9750, 0.9700
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is declining again after a sharp rebound from 0.9891. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...ure%206(1).png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 6, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has failed again to break through the resistance level at 1.5650 to rebound further. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5650 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 6, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing subwave C (colored yellow in the chart) within impulse wave 5 (colored red) of the medium term uptrend. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-127.00-125.74 (waves 1-2), 125.74-128.61-127.37 (waves 3-4), 127.37-128.07-127.46 (subwaves A-B within wave 5)
Resistances:
- 129.25-29 = confluence area of .50 retracement and super expanded objective point (SXOP), already hit (!)
- 129.75 = SXOP
- 130.14-24 = confluence area of .618 retracement and objective point (OP)
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the waves up from 127.37 and from 125.47 - these waves are not developed yet.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Althought the medium term trend is up the Detrended Oscillator has shown a clear divergence between the peaks of wave 3 and wave 5, the price has hit .50 retracement and SXOP at 129.29, so be ready for a reversal. Now it's preferable to use overbought readings in conjunction with Fib resistances to consider short positions. Resistance zone at 129.25-29 is the one to look for topping signals.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, January 06, 2011
In the American macroeconomic sector, ISM reported yesterday that activity in the service industry climbed at the highest rate in over four and a half years. The procurement managers index for the service industry rose to a level of 57.1 points in December as opposed to 55 points in November. The rise was sharper than predicted by economists, who expected a level of 55.6 points.
Europe's stock markets have been trading yesterday on a mixed trend with tendencies for index declines due to concerns over an escalation in the Iberian peninsulas debt crisis. London's stock exchange, unlike continental markets, rose by 0.5% and locked on the highest level since June 2008. The Frankfurt exchange dropped by 0.5%; the Paris stock exchange dropped 0.3%. Asian exchanges recorded mixed trends this morning as well, with Tokyo's Nikkei climbing by 1.4%, Hong Kong's stock exchange trading at a light drop, and Seoul's stock exchange declining by 0.6%.
Furthermore in the macroeconomic sector, two days before the publication of the United States labour market report for December, encouraging data has been published yesterday regarding the amount of new jobs in the American private sector. The human resources company ADP has announced that the amount of new jobs added in the U.S. private sector in December was the highest in a decade, three times larger than expected by economists. The number of jobs in the American private sector leaped up in December by 297 thousand jobs three times more than predicted by economists, who predicted a rise of only 100 thousand jobs.
Note that this Friday, the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics is expected to publish the December employment report. Economists predict that 150 thousand jobs have been added to the US labour market last month, unemployment declining to a level of 9.7%.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD Megaphone Pattern January 06, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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GBP/USD
The movement of the GBP/USD pair in the last few days had created a megaphone pattern, blocking off the price from both sides, and yet expanding. The obvious negative deviation that has been accompanying the pattern since its formation hints at a downwards breach of the pattern in the near future.
It is important to pay attention to the meaningful support level around 1.5385, which forms a combination between the Fibonacci support level and the 200-day moving average on the pair. Another breach of this level will serve as an important indication of continued downwards movement, towards the low support level of 1.5080 United States dollars for one British pound.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/CHF Downwards Movement Janaury 06, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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EUR/CHF
The negative deviation on the MACD indicator supports a new wave of downwards movements, which is expected to drag the pair down back towards the previous lows around 1.2450. A downwards breach through the trend line where it meets the Fibonacci support line at 1.2635 will form a final confirmation for a continued downwards movement towards our exit goal at 1.2530 Swiss Francs for one Euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 6, 2011
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During the previous day the GBP/USD pair has declined by 1.5 figures and stopped above the upper limit of the downward channel. Current wave situation is complicated by the fact that there are multiple options for future movement direction. At the same time, downside trend of the pound is likely to resume. If so, after December 31 the pair will probably form waves 1 and 2 of a new future downtrend in favor of the dollar.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The USD/CHF wave analysis for January 6, 2011
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High volatility on the currency markets allowed the USD/CHF pair to climb more than two figures. At the same time, such dynamic growth formed a slightly prolonged internal 5-wave structure of the estimated wave a (1) that looks quite complete by now. If so, we can expect a correction movement from yesterdays level 0.9680 in the direction of 0.9535 0.9500.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 7, 2011
AUD/USD is developing subwave C (colored yellow in the chart) within wave 5 of the medium term downtrend - colored orange red. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9833-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-1.0055-1.0105 (waves 1-2), 1.0105-0.9960-1.0021 (waves 3-4), 1.0021-0.9944-0.9992 (subwaves A-B within wave 5).
Supports:
- 0.9915 = objective point (OP), already hit
- 0.9905-0.9898 = confluence area of OP and .50 ret
- 0.9876-67 = confluence area of OP and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9813 = .618 ret
If the price reverses up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0255 - this wave is not developed yet.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is close to the zero level and overbought area is 15-20 pips away from the current level - 0.9940-45.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 7, 2011
The GBP/JPY has developed 5 waves of the medium term uptrend - colored red in the chart. Current wave down is potential wave A of A-B-C cycle. The targets below the current level are Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-129.27 and expansions off 129.27-128.43-129.19.
Supports:
- 128.35 = objective point (OP)
- 127.83-82 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .382 retracement
- 127.37 = .50 ret
- 126.99-92 = confluence area of super expanded objective point and .618 retracement
If the price breaks above 129.27 to continue the uptrend the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-128.61-127.37.
Resistances:
- 129.25-31 = confluence area of .50 retracement and contracted objective point (COP), already hit (!)
- 130.14 = .618 retracement
- 130.51 = objective point (OP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Although the medium term trend is up the Detrended Oscillator has shown a clear divergence between the peaks of wave 3 and wave 5, the price has hit .50 retracement, so be ready for a reversal. Now it's preferable to use overbought readings in conjunction with Fib resistances to consider short positions. Resistance zone at 129.25-31 is the one to look for topping signals.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 7, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is still in the downtrend. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5665 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 7, 2011
The USD/JPY pair is moving upwards after it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.8.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%208.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
This week the EUR/GBP currency pair has been trading on the downside after it could not break the support level at 0.8650. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rollback took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 07, 2011
Europe's stock markets have locked on a mixed trend yesterday on the background of a negative opening on Wall Street. In England, the London Stock Exchange locked on a 0.4% decline, in France, the Paris exchange remained without change, while Germany's Frankfurt exchange climbed by 0.6% after the country's factory orders leaped up by a rate five times greater than that predicted in November.
Asia's stock markets have recorded light index rises this morning, with the Tokyo stock exchange climbing 0.1%, the Hong Kong stock exchange climbing 0.1% as well, the Seoul exchange ascending 0.2%, the Shanghai exchange rising by 1.2% and the Taiwan exchange dropping by 1.2%.
In the macroeconomic sphere, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that the amount of new unemployment claims in the United States grew last week by 18 thousand as compared to the previous week, adding up to 409 thousands, as predicted by analysts. Today the Bureau is expected to publish the employment report for December. It has been predicted that it will show 150 thousand jobs added to the United States labor market, and the rate of unemployment reduced to 9.7%.
The United States dollar is strengthening against most of the world's currencies, trading at a monthly high against the Euro, this due to estimates that the recovery of the United States labor market will boost demand for the currency. The dollar strengthened against the Euro by 1.3% to a level of 1.2956 United States dollars for one Euro. Against the British pound it rose 0.7% to a level of 1.5405 United States dollars for one British pound. The American currency is stable against the Japanese Yen, remaining around the level of 83.40 Japanese Yen for one United States dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Expectation of a Rebound January 07, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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USD/CAD
Because of the market remaining under intense pressure, the pair U.S. dollar - Canadian dollar will probably look for soil settling around 0.9880 where it will be a trigger to buy.
A rebound around the weekly support line of 0.9880 paves the way back to an equilibrium level of 1.0000 and later even a resistance level around 1.0070.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD,Around The Trend Line Janaury 07, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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AUD/USD
The strengthening of the United States dollar in the last few days is expressed also in the currency pair considered the most bullish among the leading currencies, the Australian dollar - United States dollar pair.
A downwards breach of the trend level at its meeting point with an additional support line at 0.9910 will form a major technical signal for a continued movement to the South. In such a case, the negative momentum can be utilized with a sell deal timed to close only when the pair reach the support level around 0.9760 United States dollars for one Australian dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 7, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110107/GBP_h4.gif
The GBP/USD currency pair is slowly declining further and probably forming the first waves of a more continuous 3rd wave of the current section of the whole downtrend having developed since December 31. If so, 1.5270 might be the target for this 3rd wave, which is confirmed by its inner wave dimension. At the same time, breakout of the 1.5345 level (December 28 low) might cause a continuous correction recession, but after the price reaches the above mentioned target (1.5270).
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 7, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110107/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The Euro has been demonstrating the sell signal with target level at 1.2899. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph and the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the downside movement is 1.2933 the second support level. If this level is passed the next target will be the third support level at 1.2796. The downside movement continues while the price is below the Kijun-Sen(1.3255), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down, thus pointing to the correction against the current upside movement. The MACD is descending, indicating the current downside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.2933, and further to 1.2796. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.3200. Short positions should be cut manually in case the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen red line
Kijun-Sen blue line
Senkou Span A light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 10, 2011
AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0255-0.9903 (wave A of medium term downtrend - colored red in the chart) and is now developing corrective wave B. The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9903, and expansions off 0.9903-0.9987-0.9917 (subwaves A-B within wave B of larger degree).
Resistances:
- 1.0001 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0037 = .382 retracement
- 1.0053 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0079 = .50 ret
- 1.0021 = .618 ret
- 1.0137 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses and breaks below 0.9903 (top of wave A) the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9540-1.0255.
Supports:
- 0.9898 = .50 ret
- 0.9813 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend has changed and now is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is below the zero level and oversold area is 10-20 pips away from the current level - 0.9945-35. This is the level to open long position in case a bottoming signal appears.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 10, 2011
GBP/JPY is moving within subwave C (colored red in the chart) of wave C of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-128.61-127.37, 127.37-129.27-128.43, 128.43-129.24-128.44.
Resistances:
- 129.60 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 129.75 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 130.14 = .618 retracement
- 130.33 = objective point (OP)
- 130.51-56 = confluence area of OP and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
However if the price turns down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 127.37-129.41.
Supports:
- 128.63 = .382 retracement
- 128.39 = .50 ret
- 128.15 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
The medium term trend is up, however the price is movin up quite reluctantly, the uptrend will be confirmed if 129.41 is broken to the upside. Therefore now it's preferable to stand aside until the price breaks the flat to either side.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
The EUR/GBP closed the previous week on the downside after it could not break the support level at 0.8650. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 10, 2011
Support levels: 0.9891, 0.9820, 0.9750
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is bouncing off after it failed to break the support level at 0.9891. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2011.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 10, 2011
The USD/JPY pair is rolling back it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.8.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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