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https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...021512f315.jpg
The XAU/USD pair is showing bearish potential, with a significant support at 1985.14, known as an overlap support. If the price drops further, the 2nd support at 1968.63, a swing low support, may offer a defensive stance.
On the upside, the 1st resistance at 1996.02 serves as an overlap resistance, and overcoming it could be challenging. Above that, the 2nd resistance at 2006.90, which is a multi-swing high resistance, could cap the upside.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Key events on November 27: fundamental analysis for beginners
Analysis of macroeconomic reports:
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...3561fc0b4e.jpg
For Monday, there are hardly any macroeconomic events. We can only highlight the report on new home sales in the United States. Perhaps it will trigger a market reaction of around 20 pips, no more. There will be nothing else interesting in the US, the EU, the UK, or Germany. Therefore, it will likely turn out as another "boring Monday."
Analysis of fundamental events:
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...35650ef715.jpg
Among the fundamental events on Monday, we can highlight European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech. However, Lagarde has already spoken several times and will repeatedly speak again. There has been nothing interesting in her speeches lately. This is not surprising since no one expects any drastic changes from the ECB at the moment. Most members of the Governing Council have expressed support for keeping the key rate unchanged for an extended period. So, what can Lagarde or her colleagues tell us now?
General conclusion: There are no interesting events on Monday. Perhaps Lagarde will finally announce something important, but hopes for this are frankly low. Therefore, most likely, we can expect a boring day. It is worth noting that both pairs can start a downward movement at any moment since they are both overbought.
Basic rules of a trading system:
1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.
2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, post which all open trades should be manually closed.
5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trend line or trend channel.
6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
How to read charts:
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.
The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.
Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.
Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 28, 2023
EUR/USD
After yesterday's bounce from the support of the green channel line, the price rose above the resistance at 1.0946, closing the day with a white candle. However, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator did not return to its own ascending channel and even strengthened the downward movement.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...5519fd2095.jpg
There is a risk to continuing the upward movement; the price can turn into a correction at any time. Nevertheless, the main bullish scenario is still valid; Marlin simply annuls the current channel and enters the formation of some other formation. However, in order to confirm the growth, Marlin must still turn upwards. The target level of 1.1033 remains relevant.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...551ac56142.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, yesterday, the price tried to attack the support of the MACD indicator line, but failed. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upward from the zero line. The uptrend may strengthen. We are waiting for the price at the nearest target level. To develop a correction, the price must overcome yesterday's low at 1.0926. The first corrective target will be 1.0905.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 29, 2023
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair has been falling for the fourth day, at an accelerated pace for three days. The pair breached the support at 147.17 (November 21st low) this morning, and it can reach the target of 145.08 (June peak). The Marlin oscillator is also falling at a decent pace, but it is still far from the oversold territory. Even if the pair's downward movement slows down, we expect it to reach the target support.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...6a5c81198a.jpg
U.S. government bonds are rapidly losing yield. The yield on 5-year bonds has fallen from 4.51% to 4.25% since the beginning of the week. Along with this, the dollar is declining against the yen. Simultaneously, there are increasing rumors of the Bank of Japan abandoning its ultra-loose monetary policy soon.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...6a5b7a7c3c.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, there are signs of a brewing convergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator. The main event of the day will be released in the evening – the U.S. GDP for the 3rd quarter. Depending on the risk sentiment, the USD/JPY pair will choose a corresponding strategy. Until then, the price may stall under the resistance at 147.17.
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XAU/USD Day I Potential bearish reversal?
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...803921e95c.jpg
The XAU/USD is currently positioned for a potential bearish reversal, The chart is currently encountering major resistance levels, suggesting a potential bearish reversal.
The 1st resistance at 2050.34 is identified as a multi-swing high resistance. This implies that it's a significant barrier where selling interest could intensify, potentially triggering a reversal in the XAU/USD (Gold) market.
The 2nd resistance at 2079.54 is also noted as a swing high resistance, further reinforcing the potential resistance factors for the precious metal.
On the support side,
The 1st support at 2005.70 is categorized as a pullback support. This suggests that it's a significant level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing some support for XAU/USD.
The 2nd support at 1951.77 is another support level identified as an overlap support. This adds further significance to this support level, indicating it as a potential area where buyers might become active, potentially mitigating the bearish reversal.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Catherine Mann: The Bank of England may still need to raise rates
Inflation in the United Kingdom remains consistently high, although it has decreased to 4.6% in the last six months. Recall that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and some of his colleagues promised to reduce inflation to 5% or below by the end of this year. At the moment, we can say that they have managed to keep their promise, but inflation in Britain remains persistently high, with wages growing at 8% annually, and core inflation currently standing at 5.7%.
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Judging by data on price and wage inflation, we can see that the BoE is currently closest to a new interest rate hike. Recently, we have repeatedly heard that the British central bank prefers to keep the rate at its current level for a period long enough to return inflation to 2%. However, such measures may not be sufficient.
BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said that the prospects of maintaining the current inflation could compel the central bank to tighten monetary policy more than it is doing now. Mann stated that the current BoE policy can be considered "sufficiently restrictive" only for a very short period and exerts relatively weak pressure on price growth. According to her, many companies expect inflationary pressures to persist next year. Accordingly, the BoE may tighten its policy once again.
This is the factor that can desynchronize the pound and the euro. The European Central Bank has no grounds to raise rates after the latest inflation report. Moreover, it may move to rate cuts in the near future. If we believe Mann's words, the BoE may need another rate hike, and the probability of such a scenario is quite high. This is a supporting factor for the pound but not for the euro.
In conclusion, I expect both instruments to fall. The BoE has not given any signals of readiness to move from words to action. In the last meeting, only three members of the Committee voted for a rate hike. Therefore, the euro and the pound can safely decline for now.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that a bearish wave pattern is still being formed. The pair has reached the targets around the 1.0463 mark, and the fact that the pair has yet to breach this level indicates that the market is ready to build a corrective wave. It seems that the market has completed the formation of wave 2 or b, so in the near future I expect an impulsive descending wave 3 or c with a significant decline in the instrument. I still recommend selling with targets below the low of wave 1 or a. But be cautious with short positions, as wave 2 or b may take a more extended form. A successful attempt to break the 1.0851 level could signal a decline in the instrument.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...8c2aa665ca.jpg
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend. The most that we can count on is a correction. At this time, I can recommend selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2068 mark because wave 2 or b will eventually end and at any time. The longer it takes, the stronger the fall. The narrowing triangle is a harbinger to the end of the movement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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AUD/USD Update for December 04, 2023 - Berish divergence on the oscillator
Technical analysis:
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d8d5fd9275.jpg
AUD/USD has been trading downside this morning and I found rejection of the previous swing high at 0.6680, which is good sign for the further downside movement.
Due to the rejection of the previous swing high and the bearish divergence on the RSI oscillator, I see potential for the further drop towards lower references.
Downside objectives are set at the price of 0.6570 and 0.6524
RSI oscillator is showing fresh bearish divergence in the background, which is sign for the downside rotation.
Key resistance is set at the price of 0.6680
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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USD/CAD I Bearish Reversal?
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ea9060aa53.jpg
The USD/CAD chart is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal, with significant support and resistance levels in play.
Resistance Levels:
At 1.35788, the 1st resistance level is characterized as "Pullback resistance." This level signifies a zone where selling pressure may emerge, potentially hindering upward momentum. Additionally, the 2nd resistance level at 1.35280 is identified as "An Overlap resistance," reinforcing its role as a significant resistance zone.
Support Levels:
On the support side, the 1st support level at 1.34893 is labeled as "Swing low support." This level implies a potential area where buying interest may emerge, serving as a crucial support zone. Similarly, the 2nd support level at 1.34304 is characterized as "Swing low support," reinforcing its potential to provide support to the price.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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XAU/USD H4 I Bullish Bounce?
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ffb9c9becf.jpg
The XAU/USD chart suggests the potential for a bullish bounce, with significant support and resistance levels at play.
Support Levels:
At 2009.00, the 1st support is characterized as "An Overlap support." This level signifies a potential area where buying interest may emerge, potentially facilitating a bounce. Similarly, the 2nd support at 1991.00 is also identified as "An Overlap support," reinforcing its potential significance in providing support to the price.
Resistance Levels:
On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 2034.68 is labeled as "An Overlap resistance." This level represents a notable barrier to further upward price movement and warrants attention from traders. Additionally, the 2nd resistance at 2051.18 is characterized by "Pullback resistance," further emphasizing its role as a significant resistance zone.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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USD/JPY Day I Bearish continuation expected?
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...14242420d7.jpg
The USD/JPY chart is currently indicating the potential for a bearish breakout, with significant support and resistance levels at play.
Support Levels:
At 144869.00, the 1st support is characterized as "An Overlap support." This level signifies a potential area where buying interest may emerge, potentially preventing further downward movement. Additionally, the 2nd support at 141.98 is identified as "An Overlap support," further reinforcing its potential significance in providing support to the price.
Resistance Levels:
On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 148.28 is labeled as "An Overlap resistance." This level represents a notable barrier to further upward price movement and warrants attention from traders.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for AUD/USD on December 8, 2023
Yesterday, the Australian dollar, with overlaps, covered the entire range of levels 0.6547-0.6612. It sharply grew when the Marlin oscillator's signal line turned from the zero line.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...287c37c202.jpg
According to technical rules, the pair can rise further by surpassing the previous day's high (0.6623), but since the US will release important data today, there may be a false breakout above 0.6623.
According to technical rules, the pair can rise further by surpassing the previous day's high (0.6623), but since the US will release important data today, there may be a false breakout above 0.6623.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...287cf694e3.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating just before the resistance level of 0.6612. The MACD line is slightly above it, precisely at yesterday's high. Consolidating above it will signal further growth. The Marlin oscillator is already in the uptrend territory. We are waiting for the resolution of the situation with the release of the US data.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/362643
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 11, 2023
EUR/USD
Friday's U.S. labor data turned out better than expected. The result was reflected in a decrease in the unemployment rate from 3.9% to 3.7%. The balance indicator line stopped the initial downward movement in response to the news. This was evidently influenced by the risk appetite, as the S&P 500 stock index grew by 0.41%. It is very close to continuing its growth in the medium-term, and to achieve this, the quote needs to surpass the year's high of 4612 (July 27), paving the way for the pair to reach the record target of 4816 (January 2022).
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From this perspective, the euro's growth is limited to the time when the S&P 500 continues to rise. Synchronization with this timeframe gives the first serious target level of 1.1076 – the upper band of the descending price hyperchannel, coinciding with the peak on April 14 (December 21-22).
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...85_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, a double convergence has formed, which could provide the initial momentum in order for the price to rise further so it can consolidate above 1.0825. This would mean settling above the nearest embedded line of the price channel, marked on the daily chart. Subsequent consolidation above the MACD line (1.0850) would mean overcoming the Fibonacci ray on the daily chart and pave the way for the pair to reach the target level of 1.0905. Considering the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the euro's growth could be quite strong.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 12, 2023
EUR/USD
In the previous review, we tied the rise of counter-dollar currencies to the development of risk sentiment in the broader market. Yesterday, the S&P 500 stock index surpassed the nearest peak from July 27 (4612), and now it has a good target at the level of 4818, which is a record high (January 2022). Oil has risen slightly. Yields on US government bonds have not changed for the third day in anticipation of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d7_source!.jpg
On the daily chart, the price has consolidated above the level of 1.0757. The Marlin oscillator is slowly turning upward. If there are no significant events that will hinder the euro's way, the price will continue to rise towards the target level of 1.0825.
A potential bullish breakout, in continuation of the decline from November 29, will take place if the price surpasses the support of the MACD line in the area of 1.0703. The first bearish target will be 1.0632. Exchange Rates 12.12.2023 analysis
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating symbolically above the support of 1.0757. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, after the previous convergence, entered the uptrend territory. Overcoming the level of 1.0825 will support the uptrend, as resistance is strengthened by the approaching MACD line.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on December 13, 2023
EUR/USD
So, yesterday's US inflation data turned out to be positive for the euro. The core CPI for November remained at the previous 4.0% YoY, while the CPI decreased from 3.2% YoY to 3.1% YoY. Such an optimistic trend of decreasing inflation could be reflected in today's dot plot projections on interest rates by FOMC members.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...91d4da263e.jpg
Today, the euro may surpass yesterday's high and continue to rise.
Yesterday, the upper shadow reached the target level of 1.0825. According to the main scenario, we expect a breakout and the euro to rise towards 1.0905. The second target is 1.0946.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...91d59986ca.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price reached the MACD indicator line and retraced slightly downwards. The price settled above the balance line indicator, and the Marlin oscillator settled in the uptrend territory. If the price consolidates above 1.0825, it will mean consolidation above the MACD line. We expect the euro to continue rising according to the main plan.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 14, 2023
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar sharply strengthened after yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting – up 100 pips compared to the euro's 80-pip rise. In today's Asian session, the pair continued to rise at an even greater speed, and has already surpassed the target level of 0.6693. With that said, we now expect the uptrend to move forward towards the target levels of 0.6775 and 0.6815 (the average value of the peaks in April and May).
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...2d_source!.jpg
A slight move of the Marlin oscillator's signal line into negative territory (red arrow) is now considered a false move, afterwards we witnessed movement into the overbought territory.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...a6_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price is trying to consolidate above the level of 0.6693. If it successfully manages to consolidate, this would automatically support the pair's rise to 0.6775.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 15, 2023
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair continues to support the dollar's broad weakness. Yesterday, the yen strengthened by 97 pips, and the lower shadow of the daily candle tested the target support at 141.23. During the correction, the price approached the resistance level at 142.70 by this morning.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...27_source!.jpg
This level is strong, so we do not believe that there is a reason for the price to overcome it. After completing the correction, a consolidation could form before the level for 1-2 days. After that, we expect a new test of support at 141.23 and further down to 140.35, coinciding with the embedded line of the price channel.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...18_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price and the Marlin oscillator formed a weak convergence. However, the oscillator quickly moved upward, so it may briefly linger at elevated values before turning downward.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 18, 2023
EUR/USD
Friday's correction turned out to be quite intense and balancing on the verge of a trend change, as the price managed to overcome the strong support at 1.0905, and the Marlin oscillator returned to negative territory. Now, if the current day closes below the price channel line, below the level of 1.0905, the price could attack the lower Fibonacci ray and support at 1.0825.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...40_source!.jpg
However, the euro still has a chance to rise. In order to do so, the current daily candle should stay above the level of 1.0905, which will lead the Marlin oscillator to rise in the positive territory. Surpassing the 1.0946 mark will reopen the target of 1.1033 and then 1.1076.
On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the corrective phase was just over 38.2%. The Marlin oscillator has not left the growth territory. There is a good chance that the price will turn from these levels. The uptrend remains intact, and in order to change it, the price needs to consolidate below 1.0825 and below the MACD line.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...61_source!.jpg
Such a deep correction only occurred with the euro. The Canadian dollar strengthened on Friday, Asia-Pacific currencies spent the day in consolidation, and this morning, the New Zealand dollar continues to rise. This means that on Friday, the euro qualitatively reacted to the weak eurozone PMI data. But today, the IFO indices for Germany for December will be released, and they are expected to increase. In particular, the value is expected to rise from 89.4 to 89.5. This supports the main scenario.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 19, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro closed with a white candle above the level of 1.0905, and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator quickly returned to the bullish territory. Although this isn't a signal that the pair will rise to the level of 1.1033, it removes the risk of a decline to 1.0825.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...51_source!.jpg
Perhaps the bulls still do not have enough long positions to overcome 1.0946, then we will see the price consolidating in the range of 1.0905/46. On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the level of 1.0905 and above the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...bb_source!.jpg
The Marlin oscillator is misleading the bulls, showing an intention to move below the neutral zero line. At the same time, this is a sign of an upcoming correction in the range of 1.0905/46. A consolidation below the lower band of the range will sharply increase the risks of a decline.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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The ability to analyze is an incredibly crucial factor in forex trading. Therefore, as a trader, it's essential to consistently develop your analytical skills. This is done so that traders can analyze the market accurately and benefit together with Tickmill as their broker.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 20, 2023
EUR/USD
The euro did not linger in the range of 1.0905/46, broke out of it and gained 57 pips on Tuesday. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has settled in the positive territory, and the price can continue to move to the nearest target level of 1.1033 and rise to the upper band of the price channel, coinciding with the target level of 1.1076 (the peak of April 14).
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...62_source!.jpg
Obviously, the pre-New Year rally is in full swing, if we count the stock market since October 30th. The Dow Jones stock index sets a new record every day. The S&P 500 is slightly behind. Yesterday, oil rose by 1.80%, and copper rose by 1.36%. The crisis, along with the euro's decline, is expected in the new year.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...87_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price is progressing above the indicator lines, which are rising, and the Marlin oscillator has settled and is progressing in the uptrend territory. The possible correction is supported by the level of 1.0946, but overall, we expect the pair to rise to the specified target levels.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2023
EUR/USD
The cause of yesterday's corrective move can be attributed to the stock market; the S&P 500 fell by 1.47%, and the dollar index rose by 0.26%. Of course, we won't interpret every black candle as the collapse of the pre-New Year rally or the beginning of a global crisis, as the decline was triggered by other factors, fueled by the cautious remarks of T. Barkin, R. Bostic, D. Goolsbee. Even representatives of the European Central Bank, K. Knot, M. Kazaks, J. Nagel, have leaned towards the "soft" side.
Today, the U.S. will release data on GDP for the 3rd quarter, and tomorrow, data on durable goods orders and consumer spending are expected to come out as positive. US markets open on Tuesday, and there are no clear reasons for mass closure of long positions even before the new year.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...32_source!.jpg
On the daily chart, the price tested support at 1.0946, and this morning, the pair is gradually rising. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is developing in a miniature triangle, a sign of an impending upward movement. The targets remain the same: 1.1033, 1.1076.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...50_source!.jpg
On the four-hour chart, the price is staying above both indicator lines, and there has been no consolidation below the support. Marlin has entered negative territory, which may slightly slow down the euro's recovery, possibly for the structure of the Marlin triangle on the daily chart.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 22, 2023
AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar gained 71 pips and approached the target level of 0.6815, and the upper band of the local price channel.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...dd_source!.jpg
The Marlin oscillator has been behaving nervously recently, but a break above 0.6830 opens the way for further growth with the initial target of 0.6897 - towards the peak of July 13 with an intermediate level of 0.6872.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...62_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has stabilized in the uptrend territory. We are waiting for progress on this growth.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Analysis of Gold for December 25, 2023 - Potential for the downside movement
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...941ff3959a.jpg
Technical analysis:
Gold has been trading downside in the background but I found that supply overcame demand, which is good sign for the further downside movement.
Due to the rejection of the resistance level in the background and supply present, I see potential for the further drop towards lower references.
Downside objectives are set at $2.032 and $2.017
RSI oscillator is showing downside rotation toward 50 level, which is sign od indecision and the breakout of the rising lows.
Key resistance is set at $1.270
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 26, 2023
EUR/USD
So far, the euro has reached the first bullish target at 1.1033. Now, the target is 1.1076 (the peak of April 14) at the intersection with the upper band of the price channel. Surpassing this level will open up the target of 1.1150 (the July 27 high). But first, the price needs to consolidate above 1.1033.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...90_source!.jpg
Today, the United States will release housing price data. The October estimate suggests a growth of 0.5%, and the composite S&P/CS-20 index, excluding seasonal fluctuations, is expected to rise to 5.0% YoY from the previous 3.9% YoY. Such data may hinder the euro's growth. On the other hand, in thin markets, movements can be unpredictable depending on the goals of major players, and these goals were bullish just a week ago.
On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned away from the upper band of the wedge, creating a risk of a pullback to the lower band of the wedge and an upward breakout of the line. Based on this scenario, the price may spend the entire day below the resistance of 1.1033 and only resume its upward movement tomorrow.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...b9_source!.jpg
On the four-hour chart, the price is starting to consolidate before the reached level, and the Marlin oscillator has settled in the positive territory. Price development is occurring above the balance and MACD indicator lines. An uptrend in place.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 27, 2023
EUR/USD
The pre-New Year rally continues; S&P 500 up 0.42%, the euro up by 28 points, oil up by 1.99%, and gold up by 0.52%. The euro has surpassed the target resistance at 1.1033, and today, it opened above this level. Now the pair has one final leap to move towards 1.1076, where we might see profit-taking for the entire pre-New Year movement.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...e7_source!.jpg
There is also room for growth in the stock market; the S&P 500 index is 0.9% away from the record high, and 2.28% away from the 4883 target along the price channel line (see the review from December 25).
On the 4-hour chart, the price has managed to consolidate above 1.1033.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...3d_source!.jpg
Although the Marlin oscillator is in the positive territory, it feels weak, formally consolidating above the zero line. A delay in the price's growth may push the oscillator to move into negative territory. The least we can do for today is to close the day above yesterday's closing price.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Asset, Thursday December 28, 2023
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Although currently Gold commodity assest still look strengthening where this is confirmed by the price movement which is above its Moving Average, but with the appearance of the Rising Wedge pattern and the deviation between price movement with Awesome Oscillator indicator, then in the near future, although gold will try to reach the level area of 2093.24-2107.79 but there is a potential for gold to fall down to its weakening up to the level of 2004.27, but this weakness potential will become invalid if the strengthen of gold still continue until it breaks above the level 2143.74.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 29, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro failed to settle above the level of 1.1076 and, with below-average volumes, returned below it. Reduced trading volumes tells us that major players are not closing long positions.
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This morning, the price is rising again and pushing through the resistance at 1.1076. If it manages to stay above this mark, the 1.1185 target will become relevant again. Settling above 1.1185 will pave the way for the price to reach the target of 1.1280. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator edged down yesterday but has gone back to rising again in today's Asian session.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price briefly settled below 1.1076 but quickly turned back up. This was supported by the Marlin oscillator, which reversed from the border of the downtrend territory. We expect the euro to rise further.
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EUR/USD. The first week of January: Fed minutes, Eurozone inflation, and Non-Farms
Major global trading platforms are closed on January 1st due to New Year celebrations. Therefore, we can expect a shortened but still quite interesting trading week.
Tuesday
"Monday starts on Tuesday." Typically, the first working day of the week doesn't bring important news or reports, which means that Tuesday will be no exception. During the European session, we will receive the final assessment of December's PMI data. According to most experts, the final assessment is expected to match the initial one. In particular, Germany's Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain at 43.1 points. On the one hand, this indicator remains below 50 points, indicating contraction. On the other hand, the index has been showing an upward trend for the fifth consecutive month (after plummeting to 38 points in July). If the data is not revised towards deterioration or improvement, the market will likely ignore this release. The same applies to the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which will be released during the U.S. session. Here too, the final assessment should match the initial one (48.2).
Wednesday
Key labor market data for Germany will be released. According to forecasts, unemployment in December should remain at the November level, which is 5.9%. This is a relatively high figure – the last time (before November 2023) unemployment was at this level was in June 2021.
However, the German labor market rarely has a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing Index, which will be released during the U.S. session, could provoke increased volatility. This crucial indicator has shown an uptrend from July to September (inclusive), reaching 49 points. It sharply dropped to 46.7 in October, and remained at the same level in November. According to most forecasts, it will slightly increase to 47.2 in December. This fact is unlikely to impress EUR/USD traders. However, if this indicator falls into the "red" (more precisely, if it falls below 46.7), then in that case, market participants may react strongly to the data, as dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future course of actions could rise again.
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The minutes of the December Federal Reserve meeting is also set for release on Wednesday. Take note that the December meeting was the most dovish one in 2023. Instead of the widely expected "moderately hawkish" stance, the central bank expressed very accommodative comments, stating its readiness to lower interest rates in 2024 (according to the updated dot plot – by 75 basis points over the year). Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that during this meeting, Committee members discussed the timing of the rate cuts. In this context, he noted that the general expectation is that the rate cut will become the main topic for further discussion. Given the rhetoric of the accompanying statement and Powell himself, we can assume that the Fed Minutes will exert additional pressure on the greenback.
Thursday
The key economic report on Thursday is the German inflation data. According to most experts, the Consumer Price Index accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year in December, following a decline to 3.2% in November. The harmonized CPI is also expected to show growth, rising to 3.8% year-on-year (after falling to 2.8%). If these figures come in at least in line with expectations, the bulls will have another reason to push the pair higher, as German data often (almost always) correlates with the overall European data.
Friday
The euro area is set to release its inflation data on Friday. This should be viewed in light of the previous statements made by representatives of the European Central Bank. To recall, over the last two weeks of December, several members of the ECB stated that the central bank would keep interest rates at their current levels for quite a while, at least throughout the first half of 2024. The common theme of these statements is that it's too early for the eurozone to celebrate victory over inflation. If December's figures show accelerated growth, this will provide support to the euro. According to preliminary forecasts, the CPI will rise to 3.0% in December after dropping to 2.4% in November. The index will show an upward trend for the first time after seven consecutive months of decline. The core index is expected to decrease to 3.4%. If it unexpectedly surges (after four months of decline), this will place the bulls in a favorable position.
Key labor market data will be published during the U.S. session. Preliminary forecasts do not bode well for the dollar. For instance, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.9%, and the number of employed is projected to increase by just 160,000. The indicator may also disappoint dollar bulls: it is predicted that the average hourly earnings will decrease to 3.9% on an annual basis (the weakest growth rate since June 2021).
Conclusions
The EUR/USD pair still has the potential to rise. Soft Fed minutes, accelerated inflation in Germany and the eurozone, as well as weak Non-Farms, will support the pair's uptrend, assuming that all events align with the expectations of most experts. In this case, buyers can expect the pair to return to the 1.1130 level, which corresponds to the upper Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart. The primary target of the uptrend is at the 1.1250 level (the upper Bollinger Bands line on the monthly timeframe), but it's too early to talk about that price level at this point.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 2, 2024
EUR/USD
In the final trading day of 2023, the euro fell by 25 pips on below-average volume, finding support at 1.1033. Since there was no significant profit-taking, we expect the uptrend to remain intact. A break above the level of 1.1076 opens up a substantial target like 1.1185, which is the November 2021 low and the March 2022 high. We could see a bullish potential at 1.1280. The Marlin oscillator has also corrected lower, visually preparing for a reversal into a new upward wave.
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All price action and oscillator movements occur within an uptrend. It's worth noting that this progress is taking place within a medium-term green-colored ascending price channel. Even if there is a break below the 1.1033 support level, we will not hastily revise the main scenario.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is in a bearish territory but may require a trigger to return to the bullish territory. Today's reports on the final estimates of the eurozone and U.S. industrial PMIs for December may serve as a catalyst. The forecasts remain unchanged (44.2 and 48.2, respectively), but tomorrow's Manufacturing ISM for December is projected to stand at 47.1, up from 46.7 in November. We can assume that today's final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI might surprise everyone and turn out to be better than expected. Such, albeit minor, optimism could sustain risk appetite and push stock markets and counter-dollar currencies into the green zone.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 3, 2024
GBP/USD
Amid investors' flight from risk on Tuesday, the British pound lost 111 pips and breached the support of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. This morning, the price quickly returned above the line, but the bulls' main goal for now is to close the day above the nearest resistance at 1.2645, otherwise, we may see a consolidation below this mark, and the bears could gain the upper hand, pushing the quote to 1.2524.
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The Marlin oscillator has settled in a downtrend, so sellers have a good chance. If the price consolidates above 1.2645, the price could rise towards 1.2745, and a breakthrough of 1.2745 will provide an optimistic outlook towards 1.2930 - the upper band of a long-term price channel.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines, as well as the level of 1.2645. The Marlin oscillator has also settled in negative territory. Considering the uptrend, we can consider the pound's decline as a short-term effect. The first signal for an upward move will be the price consolidating above the level of 1.2645, further confirmed by the price breaking above the MACD line and the 1.2705 mark. However, if the price fails to exhibit growth, it will fall, with 1.2524 as the target. We await further developments.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 4, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday's US ISM business activity data for December showed improvement, but investors continued to move away from risk, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.80%, and the euro falling by 17 pips along with it. The manufacturing PMI rose from 46.7 to 47.4, and the employment index in the manufacturing sector increased from 45.8 to 48.1. The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting confirmed the December theses of Williams, Bostic, and Mester regarding the market's reassessment of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy easing. The US will release employment reports both today and tomorrow – we expect market volatility to rise.
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On the daily chart, the price has tested the target support level of 1.0905, and the Marlin oscillator's signal line is indicating a potential bullish reversal. Perhaps, good data on new jobs in the private sector will restore risk appetite, and the euro will rise towards the level of 1.1033. If the price consolidates below 1.0905, it increases the risk of a decline towards 1.0825 and further to 1.0790, the MACD indicator line.
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On the 4-hour chart, Marlin is preparing for an upward reversal (the green area). Currently, nothing is disrupting the technical reversal moment. We are waiting for the ADP employment data in the private sector. The forecast is optimistic – 115,000 jobs added compared to 103,000 in November.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 5, 2024
EUR/USD:
Yesterday's US employment data, as we anticipated, exceeded expectations. According to ADP, 164,000 jobs were created in the non-farm sector in December, compared to a forecast of 115,000 and 101,000 in November. Initial jobless claims also dropped to 202,000 from 220,000 the previous week (forecast was 216,000). These reports renewed optimism about today's Non-Farm Payrolls report and other unemployment sub-indices. Even the expected 170,000 new jobs in the non-farm sector are considered a good figure.
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As a result, the Dow Jones inched up by 0.03% yesterday, while the S&P 500 was less responsive, with a -0.34% decline. However, European stock markets closed the day with gains, and the euro was up by 22 pips.
On the daily chart, we can see a price reversal from the balance indicator line and the target level of 1.0905. The Marlin oscillator is rising but has not yet left the bearish territory. Expectations are generally positive, with the price expected to reach target resistances at 1.1033, 1.1076, and 1.1185.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is visually rising, and the Marlin oscillator, after breaking away from the base marked by the green area, is approaching the boundary of the uptrend territory. The MACD line is very close to the 1.1033 level, emphasizing the significance of this resistance. Therefore, overcoming it could extend the price's growth in the medium-term.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 8, 2024
EUR/USD
As we anticipated in previous reviews, the US employment data came out better than expected. In the non-farm sector, 164,000 new jobs were created compared to the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at the November level of 3.7%, instead of the expected 3.8%. However, the proportion of the economically active population sharply decreased from 62.8% to 62.5%. This may be due to seasonal factors. The markets showed increased volatility in response to this data, with most assets, including currencies, gold, and even the Dow Jones, ending the day close to their opening levels.
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The euro started the day with gains. The price is trying to move away from the support at 1.0905 in order to gravitate towards the target level of 1.1033. Breaking through the nearest resistance will open the path to 1.1076. By that time, the Marlin oscillator may have already risen above the zero line, providing fresh momentum for growth.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price and Marlin oscillator have formed a convergence. The oscillator is already in positive territory, helping the price approach 1.1033. This level is strong and significant because the MACD line is located nearby.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 9, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound pierced through the resistance level at 1.2745 with its upper shadow, and today's opening price is exactly at this level, indicating further upward movement. Exchange Rates 09.01.2024 analysis
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The Marlin oscillator crossed into the uptrend territory during the Asian session. A short-term rise is unfolding with the initial target at 1.2826. Beyond that, the price faces a challenging decision: to either surpass the upper band of the global descending channel around 1.2910 or break through it and reach the target level of 1.2940.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is trying to rise above the support at 1.2745. In doing so, it is moving above both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator continues to adapt to the uptrend territory. We are looking for the price to reach the initial target level at 1.2826.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 10, 2024
EUR/USD
The euro failed to develop an upward movement on Monday or Tuesday. Part of this is related to the U.S. Congress passing the budget for the current year, removing the threat of a shutdown. However, the stock market also showed some weakness yesterday, restraining the potential rise in risk currencies. However, the stock market's situation is more understandable – it is waiting for a flow of corporate reports for the 4th quarter, waiting for new data on inflation in the United States, and waiting for clarity on interest rates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is forecasted to increase from 3.1% YoY to 3.2% YoY, while the core CPI may show a decrease from 4.0% YoY to 3.8% YoY. For major financial institutions reporting on Friday, profits are expected to range from $0.92 per share to $8.75 per share. For now, the outlook for the stock market is optimistic. We are waiting for the S&P 500 to surpass a historical high (4817), possibly within a week, and then it has three main targets: 4890, 5028, 5120. A reversal with a decline could occur from any of these levels in a few months, and divergences on longer timeframes (week, month) will be ready.
From this perspective, the euro certainly has the potential to rise in the coming weeks – the direct correlation with the stock market remains intact, but there may be reversals within this upward movement.
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At the moment, the price is moving above the support at 1.0905 but is already pushing through the daily balance indicator line. If the price closes below this level, this would pave the way for the price to reach the target of 1.0825, and the MACD line is approaching this area, tempting the euro to test this support's strength. However, even if the price breaches the support, the uptrend is unlikely to push the price to surpass 1.0730, which is the target level near the embedded line of the global price channel. The optimistic scenario is growth within the range of 1.1033/76 from current levels. We are waiting for tomorrow's US inflation data.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is falling below the balance indicator line, and the MACD line has turned downward. Therefore, the Marlin oscillator may not be able to withstand this pressure and will soon move into a downtrend territory. We have to wait for tomorrow's data, and the market will reveal its choice. To reiterate, if the market's choice is not in favor of the euro (risk), the move could largely be false.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2024
EUR/USD
Wednesday was generally spent waiting for today's US inflation data. However, optimism and risk appetite prevailed; the S&P 500 rose by 0.57%, gold fell by 0.26%, and the euro gained 40 pips and continues to rise this morning.
From this perspective, the euro certainly has the potential to rise in the coming weeks – the direct correlation with the stock market remains intact, but there may be reversals within this upward movement.
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On the daily chart, the euro is rising above the balance indicator line, but the Marlin oscillator has not yet left the downtrend territory. It may leave this area after the reports. In this case, the price may aim for the nearest level at 1.1033. The subsequent move above this level will open up the second target at 1.1076. Beyond that is 1.1185, the peak from March 2022.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price has not yet received a full-fledged bullish signal, as it needs to move above the MACD line, above the 1.1018 level. In general, the nearest resistance for the price can be seen in the range of 1.1018-1.1033. The Marlin oscillator is confidently moving in the uptrend territory.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 12, 2024
EUR/USD
U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in December: the so-called core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.9% from a year ago, compared with an estimated 3.8%, with November's value at 4.0% from a year earlier, and the CPI rose from 3.1% to 3.4% on a yearly basis in December. The monthly growth was 0.3%. The reaction to these figures was mainly seen in the stock market, where the S&P 500 initially lost 0.94%. However, the market eventually turned around, and the index closed the day down by only -0.07%, while the Dow Jones gained 0.04%. Investors did not change their opinion regarding the first rate cut in March; in fact, they increased market expectations from 67% to 70%, mostly factoring in geopolitical risks. The yield on 5-year US government bonds decreased from 3.97% to 3.87%. The euro closed the day at the same level as the previous day's closing price.
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As a result, the price settled above the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe. The Marlin oscillator has not yet crossed into the positive territory but is close to doing so. The price is facing two target levels: 1.1033 and 1.1076 (the peak on April 14th). Beyond that, the price will have to fight for the 1.1185 level.
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On the 4-hour chart, the technical picture has not changed. Only the MACD indicator line has slightly fallen and is now closer to the price at 1.1008. Overcoming this resistance will allow the price to confidently target the 1.1033 level. The Marlin oscillator is ready to support the price at any moment since it is in the uptrend territory.
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