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Fundamental Analysis, January 10, 2011
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated in his testimony in the Senate Budget committee that signs of a sustainable recovery are continuing to strengthen. He added, however, that he is still concerned over the slow recovery of the labor market, and warned that the deflation risk. In summary, a moderate improvement in the rate economic recovery exists in 2011 as compared to 2010, according to the chairman.
In the macroeconomic scale, the United States Department of Labor has reported last Friday that 103 thousand new jobs have been added to the American labor market in December, with the rate of unemployment dropping to 9.4%, the lowest point since May 2009. Economist predictions were for a sharper rise of 150 thousand jobs, but a more moderate decline in the unemployment ratings, to a level of 9.7%.
Index declines have been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, led by the stocks of the export sector, this due to the United States employment report and data regarding China's trade balance. The Hong Kong stock exchange declined by 0.2%, the Shanghai stock exchange retreated by 0.4%, the Seoul exchange dropped 0.5%, the Singapore exchange dropped by 0.1%, the Sydney exchange climbed 0.2%, while the Tokyo stock exchange is closed today due to holidays.
Analysts estimate the gold is expected to reach a level of 1,800 United States dollars per ounce of gold in 2011. Since gold is currently trading at 1,370 United States dollars per ounce, this constitutes a climb of over 30%.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 10, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The Euro has been demonstrating the sell signal with target level at 1.2899. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph and the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the downside movement is 1.2813 – the first support level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second support level at 1.2645. The downside movement continues while the price is below the Kijun-Sen(1.3150), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is descending, indicating the current downside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.2813, and further to 1.2645. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.3150. Short positions should be cut manually in case the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 10 to January 14, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.3790
Weekly - R2 = 1.3611
Weekly - R1 = 1.3257
Weekly Pivot = 1.3078
Weekly - S1 = 1.2724
Weekly - S2 = 1.2545
Weekly - S3 = 1.2191
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/eurrf.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4111
Monthly - R2 = 1.3804
Monthly - R1 = 1.3584
Monthly Pivot = 1.3277
Monthly - S1 = 1.3057
Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
Monthly - S3 = 1.2530
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/eurrfmot.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 10 to January 14, 2011
_____WEEKLY______
Weekly - R3 = 1.5906
Weekly - R2 = 1.5778
Weekly - R1 = 1.5661
Weekly Pivot = 1.5533
Weekly - S1 = 1.5416
Weekly - S2 = 1.5288
Weekly - S3 = 1.5171
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/gbpww.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6451
Monthly - R2 = 1.6180
Monthly - R1 = 1.5885
Monthly Pivot = 1.5614
Monthly - S1 = 1.5319
Monthly - S2 = 1.5048
Monthly - S3 = 1.4753
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/gbpmm.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 10 to January 14, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.0453
Weekly - R2 = 1.0332
Weekly - R1 = 1.0143
Weekly Pivot = 1.0022
Weekly - S1 = 0.9833
Weekly - S2 = 0.9712
Weekly - S3 = 0.9523
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/audww.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1192
Monthly - R2 = 1.0724
Monthly - R1 = 1.0476
Monthly Pivot = 1.0008
Monthly - S1 = 0.9760
Monthly - S2 = 0.9292
Monthly - S3 = 0.9044
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/audmm.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 11, 2011
Asia's stock markets have recorded moderate index rises his morning, with China's Shanghai index ascending by 0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng trading at a 1% rise, South Korea's KRX strengthening by 0.1%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 continuing to trade in negative territory, dropping by 0.3% of its value.
Japan's Minister of Finance, Yoshihiko Noda, has announced yesterday that his government will join China in supporting Europe by purchasing the debt of problematic nations like Portugal, Spain, and Italy. Japan, he said, will purchase about 20% of the Special European Fund that has been founded to rescue nations from the EU's debt crisis.
The President of Portugal, Anibal Cavaco Silva, denied reports that the country is under pressure to accept international aid to avoid the spreading of its debt crisis, due to rumors that Germany and France trying to pressure the country into accepting an aid package of 50-100 billion Euro. The President added that the country does not intend to ask the IMF for aid, nor is it under any pressure to accept such aid.
On the background of these reports, the European stock markets have locked on a negative trend for the second day running, erasing about half the gains recorded last week yesterday. As such, the London stock exchange locked at a decline of 0.5%, the Frankfurt exchange retreated by 1.3%, the Paris exchange declined by 1.7%, whereas the Lisbon exchange dropped by 2.7% due to the strengthening of the estimates that Portugal will be forced to ask for a European aid package.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD,Upwards Movement, January 11, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110111/euryooo.gif
EUR/USD
Investor concerns regarding the economic state of Portugal have burdened the European currency, which recorded sharp declines in the last five days of trading, both against the dollar in particular and other leading currencies in general. The Euro – United States dollar pair dived about 500 points from the peak levels of 1.3400, which it visited recently, to the low levels of 1.2900, where it is currently trading.
An upwards breach expected to pave the way back to a level of 1.3000, and later on even to a resistance level around 1.3380. The stop loss movement can be placed in a relative proximity, slightly under the last local low around 1.2850. We must point to the positive deviation on the MACD indicator, which supports positive predictions on the pair.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/JPY,Opportunities to Buy Janaury 11, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110111/euryy.gif
Euro – Japanese Yen
The technical angle allows us to identify an attractive buy opportunity;The fact that the pair has failed to breach the support level at 107 hints that it is possible that the Euro – Japanese Yen pair had bottomed out in expectation of a new wave of upwards movement. It is also important to point out the positive technical deviation on the MACD indicator, combined with the appearance of the “Bat” bullish reversal pattern. These allow for entry into a buy deal with an exit goal near the meaningful resistance level of 109.70 Japanese Yen for one Euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 11, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110111/gbpusd%204.gif
Overview:
The sell signal has cancelled, instead a buy signal with target level at 1.5722 has formed. However, the movement has resembled a sideways one for several weeks. The formed sell signal is strong and not confirmed since the Chinkou Span has not yet fixated above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. In case the current signal is confirmed, i.e. the Chinkou Span fixates above the graph, the first target for the upside movement is 1.5661 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.5778. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.5515). The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which does not confirm the current buy signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the Chinkou Span fixates above the price graph, and then trade up with the target to 1.5661. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.5515. For successful trading it is also recommended to wait until the Bollinger Bands start diverging.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 11, 2011.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110111/GBP_h4.gif
The GBP/USD situation is developing according to the corrective scenario, that implies forming a wave structure of a horizontal triangle. At the same time, its wave is probably developing further. If so, it is likely that levels near the 57 figure might cause another decline of the pound price in the range of the future d wave of such triangle.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 12, 2011
AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave 4 (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart). The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9668-0.9803 (wave 3).
Resistances:
- 0.9866 = .382 retracement, already hit (!)
- 0.9886 = .50 ret
- 0.9905 = .618 ret
If the price reverses down and continues the downtrend the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9540-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-0.9903-0.9987, 0.9987-0.9878-0.9968.
Supports:
- 0.9813 = .618 retracement is hit (!)
- 0.9792 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9769 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9709 = .764 ret
- 0.9683 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now above the zero and the overbought area is 20-30 pips away (0.9880-90) which roughly corresponds to .50 retracement - 0.9886.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 12, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave 4 (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse daily wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-129.49-128.98.
Resistances:
- 130.72 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.92 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 131.25 = .764 retracement
However if the price keeps moving down its nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 128.29-130.37.
Supports:
- 129.58 = .382 retracement
- 129.33 = .50 ret
- 129.08 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now below the zero level and the oversold area is within 10-20 pips - 129.85-75, which is a good moment to consider longs.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 12, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is declining further after it successfully broke the support level at 0.9891. The viewpoint to the pair is bearish. Now the extension of the downside movement with target at 0.9711 should be expected.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9711 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 12, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is testing the resistance level near 1.5665. If it is broken, short positions should be closed as it means the downtrend is broken.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5665 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2011.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 12, 2011
The USD/JPY pair is consolidating after it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.85. However, the viewpoint at the pair is still bullish and the upside movement is expected to resume in the nearest future.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 12, 2011
The price of oil locked yesterday at a 2.1% climbed over a level of 91 United States dollars for one barrel, oil's highest price level in the last week, this was due to concerns of reduction in oil production due to the clothing of the Alaska oil pipe and an oil field in the North Sea.
The Japanese government announced that it would purchase European obligations in order to aid the region with dealing with its debt crisis. The Asian stock markets responded positively to the announcement, recording index rises. The Tokyo stock exchange rose by 0.2%, the Seoul stock exchange rose by 0.2%, while Hong Kong's stock exchange rose by about 0.8%.
Europe's stock markets set a 28-month high yesterday, on the background of Japan's announcement. The country has joined China in its attempt to aid Europe in braking the continent's debt crisis. By the end of the trading day, the London exchange climbed by 1%, the Frankfurt stock exchange climbed 1.2%, while the Paris exchange climbed by 1.6%.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, the United States Department of labor announced that the amount of available jobs in the United States declined in November after it rose to the highest level in two years in the month previous, a sign that the recovery in America's job market may be slower and longer than expected. The number of available jobs in the United States declined by 80 thousand in November, to a total of 3.25 million, a 2.4% decline as compared to October's 3.3 million. The stream of economic publications will continue throughout the week, and will include retail sales data, the consumer price index and the industrial production index, the manufacturer price index, trade balance etc.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 12, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110112/gbpusd%204.gif
Overview:
The sell signal has cancelled, instead a buy signal with target level at 1.5722 has formed. However, the movement has resembled a sideways one for several weeks. The formed sell signal is strong and not confirmed since the Chinkou Span has not yet fixated above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. In case the current signal is confirmed, i.e. the Chinkou Span fixates above the graph, the first target for the upside movement is 1.5661 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.5778. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.5530). The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which does not confirm the current buy signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.5661, and further to 1.5778. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.5530. If the MACD reverses down, long positions should be cut manually.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for January 12, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110112/JPY_h4.gif
The USD/JPY currency pair did not make another attempt to overcome the correction level 50.5% and resumed growth, supposedly starting to form the 5th wave of the whole local uptrend, developing since December 31. Thus, at the moment its 4th wave looks complete. At the same time estimated target for this 5th, located near 84.30 is still in force.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD,Our Overall Outlook Remains Bullish, Janaury 12, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110112/eurrr.gif
EUR/USD
Since the pair still hasn't succeeded in breaching the minor resistance at 1.3040, there exists a chance for a brief wave of downwards movements towards the 1.2900 level. In such a case, there will be an opportunity to collect the Euro – United States dollar pair at an improved price before the upwards trend enters high gear. Further, a breach of the resistance levels at 1.3040 and then at 1.3100 will strengthen and confirm the pair's direction, expected to take it at the very least to the resistance level of 1.3370 United States dollars for one Euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 13, 2011
The GBP/JPY is now moving within subwave C (colored red in the chart) of daily impulse wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-130.37-129.59.
Resistances:
- 131.25 = .764 retracement
- 131.67 = objective point (OP)
- 132.23 = OP
If the price keeps retracing the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 128.59-131.13.
Supports:
- 130.54 = .382 retracement
- 130.36 = .50 ret
- 130.18 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now at the zero level and the oversold area is within 15-20 pips which roughly corresponds to .382 retracement (130.54).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 13, 2011
The AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0255-0.9803 (wave A of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart) and now is developing corrective wave B which on smaller scale consists of subwaves A and B (colored orange red in the chart), the latter is still developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9803-0.9971.
Supports:
- 0.9907 = .382 retracement
- 0.9887 = .50 ret
- 0.9867 = .618 ret
- 0.9843 = .764 ret
If the wave up continues with the break of 0.9971 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803.
Resistances:
- 0.9976 = .382 ret
- 1.0029 = .50 ret
- 1.0082 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term wave is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is now at the zero and the oversold area is 25-35 pips away (0.9920-10) which roughly corresponds to .382 retracement - 0.9907.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 13, 2011
The USD/JPY pair is consolidating after it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.85. However, the viewpoint at the pair is still bullish and the upside movement is expected to resume in the nearest future.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 13, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is declining further after it successfully broke the support level at 0.9891. This has provided certain interest to selling and quite significant interest to purchase from corporate market participants.
The viewpoint to the pair is bearish. Now the extension of the downside movement with target at 0.9711 should be expected.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9711 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%208.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 13, 2011 According to the recent report on the state of the U.S. Economy, the so-called ‘Beige book', the American labor market is beginning to show signs of recovery. The details shown in the report make it evident that six regions of the Fed, including Atlanta and Chicago, have reported moderate economic growth, while four regions, including New York and Boston, had pointed to improving conditions. In Europe, Portugal's government has successfully raised 1.25 billion Euros (1.6 billion dollars) by government obligations, which has been seen as a test of the country's ability to win investor trust and raise capital on the financial markets. Portugal's successful issue has come after, in the last two weeks, reports have spread that the Eurozone countries, including France and Germany, had pressured Portugal to accept international aid in an attempt to break the spreading of the debt crisis to the other European countries. That said, the European countries are still evaluating a possible aid package for Portugal including monetary assistance to the sum of 60 billion Euros in low-interest loans, this to calm the financial crisis threatening the Eurozone. Due to the successful Portuguese issue of obligations, as well as reports regarding an increase in the EU bailout fund, as well as agreement over and international aid package for Portugal, Europe's stock markets responded positively, locking at sharp index rises, with London's stock exchange climbing by about 0.6%, Frankfurt’s stock exchange climbing by 1.8%, the Paris stock exchange climbing by 2.2%, the Lisbon exchange ascending by 2.5%, the Milano exchange climbing 3.8%, and the Madrid stock exchange leaping up by 5.4%. Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== The EUR/USD wave analysis for January 13, 2011 http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110113/EUR_h4.gif The EUR/USD currency pair has extended its upward movement in the range of the estimated correction. At the same time, yesterday’s dynamic movement allowed the price to advance more than 1.5 figures from the opening. However, it should be mentioned that if the corrective scenario applies, targets for the wave of the estimated 2nd (or b) can be located near 1.3155 and 1.3220 (correction levels 50.0% and 61.8% respectively). Moreover, the formed MACD divergence allowing a more continuous development of the current upward section should be highlighted. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== NZD/USD,Corrective Movement., Janaury 13, 2011 (Daily Strategy) http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110113/nzd.gif NZD/USD An upwards breach of the shuffle pattern will only occur after the pair closes over the resistance level at 0.7656. In such a case, the pair will have a high potential for continued upwards movement, towards the 0.7870 resistance level. Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 13, 2011 http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110113/GBP_h4.gif During yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD pair climbed more than 1.5 figures within developing estimated wave of the whole corrective structure having formed since December 28. It is worth mentioning that yesterday’s dynamic growth has probably cancelled the scenario implying the formation of a horizontal triangle. If so, possible targets for the current wave might be located near 1.5810 and 1.5920. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 13, 2011 4-hour timeframe http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110113/eurusd%204.gif Overview: The euro has completed the downward movement; a new buy signal with target level at 1,3298 has formed. The formed signal is weak and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price did not manage to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 1.3257 – the first resistance level, but it is recommended to trade up only after the price fixates above the Ishimoku cloud. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3611. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3010), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the beginning of the upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current upside movement. Trading recommendations: Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3257, and further to 1.3611. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3010. Enter the market only after the price fixates above the Ishimoku cloud. In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release. The chart annotation: Ichimoku indicator: Tenkan-sen — red line Kijun-Sen — blue line Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line Chinkou Span — green line Bollinger Bands indicator: 3 yellow lines MACD indicator: The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window. Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 14, 2011
The ECB had decided to leave the interest rate in the Eurozone unchanged, at a level of 0.5%. The decision was in accordance with the analysts' predictions and is aimed to allow the recovery of the continent's economy from the crisis that had been affecting it. Earlier on yesterday, the British Central bank had decided to leave the interest rate in Britain unchanged as well, at a level of 1.0%. This decision had also been in accordance with the predictions of economists, who forecast that the interest rate in Britain would remain unchanged.
In the American macroeconomic arena, last week the number of persons seeking employment rose to 445 thousand, as opposed to economists’ predictions that the number of the new unemployed in the United States would decline from 409 thousand to 405 thousand.
On the other hand, the manufacturer price index for December rose surprisingly to 1.1%, completing a 4.1% rise for 2010. The analysts had predicted a more moderate increase of 0.9%. Furthermore, the United States trade deficit for November remained unchanged, at a total of about 38.3 billion United States dollars, lower than analysts' prediction of a growth of 41 billion United States dollars.
In the global currency market, the Euro has performed a 1.7% leap today against the United States dollar, reaching a 1.3380 level. The Euro's leap has been supported by successful bond issues by European countries and signals from the ECB regarding inflationary pressures that might lead to a rise in the interest rate. The ECB further announced that there exist signs of short-term inflationary pressures, mostly brought about by energy prices.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Around the Principal Trend Line , Janaury 14, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110114/aud(1).gif
AUD/USD
A look on the pair's technical picture shows that the downwards movement has been braked by the strong support of the main trend line on the pair, which has accompanied it since the beginning of 2010.
That said, we estimate that there is a serious likelihood that the pair will still breach the trend line and complete the wave of downwards movement all the way down to the 0.9700 support level and possibly even further, towards the meaningful low around 0.9525. A descent that deep would create an attractive opportunity for a buy on the pair on low prices in order to return with a new wave of upwards movements towards the resistance and equilibrium level of 1.0000 United States dollars for one Australian dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 17, 2011
The GBP/JPY is developing subwave C (colored magenta in the chart) of daily impulse wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-131.40-130.43.
Resistances:
- 132.23 = objective point (OP)
- 132.35 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.43-131.82, 128.29-131.82.
Supports:
- 131.13 = .50 retracement
- 130.96 = .618 ret
- 130.47 = .382 ret
- 130.06 = .50 ret
- 129.64 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now moving up from below the zero level and from .382 retracement 131.29. Therefore it's better to wait until the price retraces at least to 131.29 support to open long positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 17, 2011
The AUD/USD is developing subwave B (colored red in the chart) within corrective wave B of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9803-1.0019, 0.9540-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0019, 1.0019-0.9950-0.9986, 0.9986-0.9855-0.9919.
Supports:
- 0.9854 = .764 retracement, the price reversed just within 1 pip
- 0.9838 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9805 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price breaks below 0.9803 then wave 0.9803-1.0019 will be considered as finished and the targets of the downmove (wave C) will be the following:
- 0.9788 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9740 = COP
- 0.9709-07 = confluence area of .764 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price breaks above 0.9919, the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0019-0.9855, 1.0255-0.9803.
Resistances:
- 0.9937 = .50 retracement
- 0.9956 = .618 ret
- 1.0029 = .50 ret
- 1.0082 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now below the zero level and going into the oversold area, which means that the market is a bit overextended to the downside and not suitable for shorts right now. Therefore wait until the oscillator crosses above the zero - which is 15-20 pips away, and only then start considering short positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, January 17, 2011
Descents have been recorded this morning in Asia due to steps taken this weekend by China and Singapore in order to chill off the local markets, as well as renewed concerns over the European debt crisis, causing the Hong Kong stock exchange to weaken by 0.3% and the Shanghai exchange to take a 2.1% dive after the Chinese central bank raised bank capital requirements. The Singapore stock exchange droped 0.2%, while the Japanese Nikkei is trading unchanged.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, the Consumer Price index climbed by 0.5% in December, the highest monthly climb since June 2009, due to a climb in energy prices. The core price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed by 0.1%. The rises in the CPI and core price index were in accordance with predictions. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke stated on this matter that he expects that inflation remains moderate, while the risk of deflation hitting the United States economy persists.
Europe's chief statistics bureau announced that inflation in Germany – the largest economy in Europe – rose by 1.9% in December as opposed to November's 1.6%. This is the quickest climb since October 2008. That said, the concerns over the European debt crisis continue to burden the markets. The Euro traded this morning at a 0.5% decline against the United States dollar, to a rate of 1.3330 United States dollars for one Euro. Today the European finance ministers are expected to meet and discuss dealing with the crisis. Last Friday Greece lost its last investment rating, having been downgraded by one level by the Fitch ratings agency, and reaching the level of BB+, considered a 'junk bond' level.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Corrective Movement, Janaury 17, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110117/eruoo.gif
EUR/USD
The 1.3380 resistance level is a real test for the Euro – United States dollar pair on its way towards the previous highs around 1.4000. For now, the pair has entered an especially narrow shuffle, which may end in an upwards breach, first towards near resistance level of 1.3620, and later up to the resistance level and exit goal of 1.3970. A close above the 1.3390 level will form a buy trigger.
The possibility for worsening of the European debt crisis exists. Such development would lead to a new wave of downwards movement, expected to bring the Euro – United States dollar pair back towards the 1.3060 support level. This level is low enough for collecting the pair and entering a buy position, while a stop loss order may be placed at 1.2800 United States dollars for one Euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 17-January 21, 2011
_____WEEKLY______
Weekly - R3 = 1.6424
Weekly - R2 = 1.6155
Weekly - R1 = 1.6010
Weekly Pivot = 1.5741
Weekly - S1 = 1.5596
Weekly - S2 = 1.5327
Weekly - S3 = 1.5182
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110117/gpbbbwee.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6451
Monthly - R2 = 1.6180
Monthly - R1 = 1.5885
Monthly Pivot = 1.5614
Monthly - S1 = 1.5319
Monthly - S2 = 1.5048
Monthly - S3 = 1.4753
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...pbbbweemoo.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 17-January 21, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.4193
Weekly - R2 = 1.3824
Weekly - R1 = 1.3606
Weekly Pivot = 1.3237
Weekly - S1 = 1.3019
Weekly - S2 = 1.2650
Weekly - S3 = 1.2432
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110117/eurinn.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4111
Monthly - R2 = 1.3804
Monthly - R1 = 1.3584
Monthly Pivot = 1.3277
Monthly - S1 = 1.3057
Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
Monthly - S3 = 1.2530
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110117/eurinnmo.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF wave analysis for January 17, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110117/CHF_h4.gif
During Friday the USD/CHF currency pair was trading in a quite narrow price range. At the same time, the Thursday’s low was broken, which can indicate complicating wave situation in the range of the wave of the whole corrective movement developed since January 11. It is worth mentioning that if the price resumes downside movement it can reach 0.9565 – 0.9540 corresponding with estimated correction level 50.0%.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 18, 2011
The AUD/USD is movign within corrective subwave B (colored orange red in the chart) of potential impulse wave C (colored red in the chart) of medium term uptrend. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803 and expansions off 0.9803-1.0019-0.9855, 0.9855-0.9967-0.9897.
Resistances:
- 1.0009 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0029 = .50 retracement
- 1.0071-78-82 = confluence area - OP, expanded objective point (XOP), .618 retracement
if the price resumes the downtrend the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0019, 1.0019-0.9855-0.9967.
Supports:
- 0.9866 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9803 = OP
- 0.9740 = COP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the price is moving in a flat and wave C of medium term uptrend is not yet confirmed, both the readings of the Detrended Oscillator can be used to take long and short positions. At this moment the price is in the overbought area, but it's better to combine this reading with the nearest Fib resistance, which is 0.9966 - this is the level to watch for topping signals.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 18, 2011
The GBP/JPY has stalled in wave C of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart). Now corrective subwave B is developing (colored red). Still, the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-131.40-130.43, 130.43-131.82-130.96.
Resistances:
- 131.82 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.23 = objective point (OP)
- 132.35 = confluence area of COP and OP
- 133.21 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 133.54 = OP
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.43-131.82, 128.29-131.82.
Supports:
- 130.96 = .618 ret, hit precisely (!)
- 130.47 = .382 ret
- 130.06 = .50 ret
- 129.64 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now above the zero level, therefore the current price is not suitable for long positions. Now it's better to wait until the price retraces in the oversold area (15 pips away) to consider long positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
This week the EUR/GBP pair continued trading down after the rollback. Earlier the EUR/GBP dropped after it could not break the support level at 0.8650.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%208.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 18, 2011
The USD/JPY pair is testing the support level near 82.30-82.40. Another attempt was unsuccessful. At the moment the short-term viewpoint at the pair is still bullish.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/USD candlestick analysis for January 18, 2011
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/USD currency pair formed the Shooting Star candlestick, which is a downside signal. At the moment the pair is rolling back after a sharp downfall. However, the viewpoint to the pair is still bearish.
This candlestick was formed amid sharp rollback of the 1.2869 level. However, the bears started increasing their influence near the resistance level 1.3497 (December 2010 high) and a rebound took place.
Breakout of the Fibonacci level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to the support level 1.3080, where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
On the other hand, if the resistance level 1.3497 is broken, short positions should be closed as it will lead to an increase up to 1.3786.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%206.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, January 18, 2011
The main indexes of the Asian stock exchanges are traded with a neutral trend this morning. Rates rose this morning in Hong Kong while the Hang Seng Index gained 0.8%, in leading the real estate sector which is expected to register a nice rise in 2011. The Shanghai stock exchange is clouding the Asia trend, while the Chinese index is weakened by 0.3%. Tokyo registered a slight increase of 0.3% today while the Kospi Index in South Korea is now registering an 0.2% increase. The Australian index added 0.3%.
Europe's stock exchanges closed yesterday with slight rate drops, due to the deliberations of the European Union's ministers of finance regarding the strategy to fight the continent's debt crisis. At the end of the trade day the London stock exchange dropped by 0.3%, Paris retreated by 0.2% and Frankfurt closed the German stock exchange without change.
The European ministers of finance began just an hour ago deliberations regarding the strategy to battle the debt crisis in the area, following Germany's backing down somewhat from its objection to increasing the emergency fund and following Portugal's insistence that it can handle the crisis without receiving an aid package.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 18, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110118/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The euro is still developing a buy signal with target level at 1.3298; however, correction movement is continuing as well. The formed signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price got over the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3606 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3824. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3210), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are narrowing and directed up, which indicates corrective movement as well. The MACD is descending, indicating the current corrective movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3606, and further to 1.3824. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3210. Resume upward trading after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Rebound,Upward Movement , Janaury 18, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110118/cadd.gif
USD/CAD
The recent decrease wave encountered four trade days ago the strong support level of 0.9850 and since then the pair is having difficulty in breaking the level and continuing its journey south.
It is recommended to make sure that on the daily closing the pair's price will be closed above the support level of 0.9850 to be on the safe side. Closing below this level will cancel the opportunity of buying immediately.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 18 to January 21, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.0219
Weekly - R2 = 1.0119
Weekly - R1 = 1.0003
Weekly Pivot = 0.9903
Weekly - S1 = 0.9787
Weekly - S2 = 0.9687
Weekly - S3 = 0.9571
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110118/auddd.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1192
Monthly - R2 = 1.0724
Monthly - R1 = 1.0476
Monthly Pivot = 1.0008
Monthly - S1 = 0.9760
Monthly - S2 = 0.9292
Monthly - S3 = 0.9044
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110118/auddd123.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 18, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110118/EUR_h4.gif
The EUR/USD has declined further, supposedly forming a corrective structure of the 4th wave of the whole uptrend section. At the same time the price decreased by 120 pips and tested the estimated correction level 38.2%. In general this 4th wave looks quite complete at the moment, including wave set abc. Based on this we can expect resumption of the growth with likely retesting of the 1.3460 level. However, the price can still form a five-wave structure in the range of the current downside movement.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 19, 2011
The GBP/JPY is moving within corrective wave 4 of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 128.29-132.48, 130.43-132.48, expansions off 132.48-131.62-132.14.
Supports:
- 131.45 = .50 retracement, already hit (!)
- 131.28-21 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 retracement
- 130.88 = .382 ret
- 130.75 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 130.38 = .50 ret
- 129.89 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-131.40-130.43.
Resistances:
- 133.54 = OP
- 134.66 = XOP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is now above the zero level, therefore the current price is not suitable for long positions. Now it's better to wait until the price retraces to the oversold area (15-20 pips) to consider long positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 19, 2011
The AUD/USD has confirmed wave C (colored red in the chart) of medium term uptrend by breaking above 1.0019. This wave consists of subwaves A-B-C (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave C still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803 and expansions off 0.9803-1.0019-0.9855, 0.9855-0.9967-0.9897, and 0.9897-1.0004-0.9960.
Resistances:
1.0067-71-78-82 = confluence area of two objective points (OP), expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 retracement
- 1.0133 = XOP
- 1.0148 = .764 retracement
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up starting from 0.9897 - this wave is not developed yet.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level. The Oscillator is now moving from the overbought, the zero level is 15 pips away, and the oversld is 35-45 pips away from the current price.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 19, 2011
The USD/JPY pair is declining further from 83.67 after it has successfully broken the 82.35 support level. As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2018.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 19, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 0.9980, 1.0212, 1.0290
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is bouncing off after refreshing a multi-month low. The viewpoint to the pair is still bearish as the downtrend remains. As mentioned before, the breakout of the 0.9890 support level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9711 as the next target.
Moreover, this breakout has provided certain interest to selling and quite significant interest to purchase from corporate market participants.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9980 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0212. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2019.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
This week the EUR/GBP pair continued trading down. Earlier the EUR/GBP dropped after it could not break the support level at 0.8650.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2022.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 19, 2011
Index rises have been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, led by the stock of the technology sector due to reports by Apple and IBM, which beat analysts' predictions. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange climbs 0.3%, while the Hong Kong and Seoul exchanges climb about 0.8%.
In Europe, the Eurozone finance ministers pledged to strengthen the safety net for debt-laden countries, hinting that they are not under immediate pressure to act to limit the budget crisis in the Eurozone. The meeting has caused Europe's stock markets to rise to their strongest levels in two years, with the London FTSE rising by 1.2%, the Frankfurt stock exchange climbing 0.9% and Paris ascending by 0.8%.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, production in the New York area speed up this month, due to growth in exports and local demand, this according to reports by the New York Fed's Empire State index. The index rose this month to a level of 11.9 points, as compared to December's 9.9 points. Growth had been more moderate than predicted by analysts, who expected that the index will reach the 12.5-point level in January. We remind the reader that an index above zero points to expansion in production.
The global energy agency has warned yesterday that the sharp rise in oil prices poses a meaningful threat to global economic recovery. The agency had raised its oil demand prediction for 2011 after the global economic recovery has led to the highest demand for crude oil in the last three decades.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD wave analysis for January 19, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110119/GBP_h4.gif
During yesterday's trading the GBP/USD pair continued to advance and gained 150 pips. At the same time the upward movement was located within the estimated 3rd wave (b, or 3rd) forming inner wave structire of its 5th wave. If so, this 3rd looks pretty complete, which implies certain decline before the pound tries again to test the 1.6055 level, reached yesterday. Moreover, MACD divergence indicates possible decline.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 19, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110119/EUR_h4.gif
In general, as expected, the EUR/USD pair resumed growth and managed to test the 1.3460 level, reached earlier. At the same time the 4th wave of the current uptrend section can be considered complete; the euro is probably continuing to advance in the range of the 5th wave. Moreover, given the wave dimension of the uptrend and the 5th wave structure we can suppose that targets for the whole upside movement of the pair might be located near 1.3490-1.3510.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Awaiting the Right Moment to enter Short , Janaury 19, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110119/uddd(1).gif
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar – American dollar pair continue to fight the strong trend line which accompanies the pair since the trend set out on its way, about seven months ago. During the last five trade days you can clearly see the pair flirting with the line but having difficulty closing under it. Therefore, a daily closing under the line will serve as a trigger to enter in short on the pair, or can we expect to continue with successive upward to 1.0200 and there enter short.
A complete break of the line is expected to pave the way downwards and towards the next significant support level at 0.9690. The exit goal from the sell position can be placed near the last minimum level which was set around 0.9290American dollars to the Australian dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 20, 2011
The AUD/USD is developing corrective wave B of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the corrective downwave are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9803-1.0076, 0.9855-1.0076.
Supports:
- 0.9940-39 = confluence area of .618 and .50 retracements
- 0.9907 = .618 retracement
If the uptrend continues and the price breaks above 1.0076 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803.
Resistances:
- 1.0082 = .618 retracement
- 1.0148 = .764 retracement
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level. The Oscillator is now below the zero and has already crossed it once. The level to watch for long positions is 0.9940-39.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 20, 2011
The GBP/JPY is moving within corrective wave 4 of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 128.29-132.48, expansions off 132.48-131.40-131.86, 131.86-130.80-131.25.
Supports:
- 130.78 = objective point (OP)
- 130.59 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.38 = .50 retracement
- 130.19-11 = confluence area of OP and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 129.89 = .618 ret
- 129.53 = XOP
If the price reverses up and moves above 131.25 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 132.48-130.80.
Resistances:
- 131.44 = .382 retracement
- 131.64 = .50 ret
- 131.84 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up but current wave is corrective it's preferable to wait until wave 5 manifests itself by at least breaking above 131.25, therefore stand aside in the meantime.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 20, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 0.9980, 1.0212, 1.0290
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is testing the resistance level at 0.9980. Earlier the USD/CAD has bounced off after refreshing a multi-month low. The viewpoint to the pair is still bearish as the downtrend remains. As mentioned before, the breakout of the 0.9890 support level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9711 as the next target.
Moreover, this breakout has provided certain interest to selling and quite significant interest to purchase from corporate market participants.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2011.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for January 20, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP currency pair is rolling back after it could not break the support level near 0.8337.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP pair has formed the Shooting star candlestick that indicates further downside movement. This candlestick shows that earlier the EUR/GBP rebounded sharply after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level at 0.8283. However, it reversed near 8500. In its turn it means that the bears were active on this level and the bulls could not solidify here.
The breakout of the 0.8389 support level proves this viewpoint. Now downside movement targeted to the support level 0.8283 should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop-loss signals should be placed slightly above 0.8500 as the break of this level will target the pair to 0.8650.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2012.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 20, 2011
The USD/JPY pair is declining further from 83.67 after it could not break the 83.67 resistance level. As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2014.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 20, 2011
A declining trend has been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets led by financial sector stocks after the Goldman-Sachs bank recorded a decline in profits and the publication of Chinese growth data awakened concerns of continuation of monetary tightening policies by the Chinese government. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange declined by 1.1%, Seoul dropped by 0.6%, while the Hong Kong stock exchange dropped by 1.3% of its value.
In the global macroeconomic sphere, the United States Department of Trade reported yesterday that the amount of new construction projects in the United States has dropped by 4.3% to an annualized rate of 529 thousand, the lowest rate since October 2009, below that predicted by analysts. That said, the amount of building permits leaped up by 16.7% to an annualized rate of 635 thousand, the highest rate since March.
China's GDP grew by 9.8% in the fourth quarter of 2010, this due to growth in industrial production and retail sales. Accelerated growth in China has raised concerns that decision makers in the country will make additional steps to tighten monetary policy, such as an additional rise in the interest rate.
The IEA has warned yesterday of the possibility of oil prices rising to 100 United States dollars for one barrel of oil. The agency announced that a price of 100 United States dollars for one barrel may form a burden, knocking down the global GDP by 5%. Crude oil prices have declined yesterday due to disappointing data from the United States construction sector and a strengthening of the United States dollar against the leading currencies. Crude oil futures for February have declined by 0.6%, locking at a price of 90.85 United States dollars for one barrel of oil on the New York Commodities Exchange. Also at the commodities exchange, the price of gold rose yesterday by 0.2%, locking at a level of 1,370.20 United States dollars for one ounce of gold.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 20, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110120/gbpusd%204.gif
During yesterday's trading the GBP/USD pair continued to advance and gained 150 pips. At the same time the upward movement was located within the estimated 3rd wave (b, or 3rd) forming inner wave structire of its 5th wave. If so, this 3rd looks pretty complete, which implies certain decline before the pound tries again to test the 1.6055 level, reached yesterday. Moreover, MACD divergence indicates possible decline.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010Overview:
The buy signal with target level at 1.5722 is being developed; though the target level has been reached, there are no signs of upside movement yet, we can also see the current correction. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. At the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.6010 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.6155. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.5935), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is descending, indicating the current corrective movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.6010, and further to 1.6155. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.5935. Resume trading up after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 20, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110120/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The euro is still developing a buy signal with target level at 1.3298; however, correction movement is continuing as well. The formed signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price got over the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3606 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3824. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3390), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are narrowing and directed up, which indicates corrective movement as well. The MACD is descending, indicating the current corrective movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3606, and further to 1.3824. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3390. Resume upward trading after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 20, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110120/EUR_h4.gif
The EUR/USD currency pair resumed growth and gained 150 pips during yesterday’s trading. At the same time the formation of estimated 5th wave (in the 5th) inner wave structure of the whole uptrend developed since January 10. It is also worth mentioning that further testing of yesterday’s target level (with the price coming to 1.3540) and complication of the 5th wave structure (in the 5th) allow the euro to reach the levels near the 36 figure.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Fractal Analysis , Janaury 20, 2011 (Daily Strategy) http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110120/eruoog.gif EUR/USD Today, the important levels for EUR/USD are 1.3538, 1.3465, 1.3456. A short-term high is expected in the range of 1.3538-1.3570, An impulsive descendant movement can take place after the breakout of 1.3414, here potential target is 1.3240. Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Fractal Analysis , Janaury 20, 2011 (Daily Strategy) http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110120/eruoog.gif EUR/USD Today, the important levels for EUR/USD are 1.3538, 1.3465, 1.3456. A short-term high is expected in the range of 1.3538-1.3570, An impulsive descendant movement can take place after the breakout of 1.3414, here potential target is 1.3240. Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 21, 2011
The GBP/JPY is moving within corrective wave 4 of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 128.29-132.48, 130.65-132.24, expansions off 132.48-130.65-132.24.
Supports:
- 131.63 = .382 retracement
- 131.44 = .50 ret
- 131.26 = .618 ret
- 131.11 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.41-38 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 ret
- 129.89 = .618 ret
If the price reverses up and moves above 132.24 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-132.48-130.65.
Resistances:
- 133.24 = COP
- 134.66 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 134.84 = OP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up but current wave is corrective it's preferable to wait until wave 5 manifests itself by breaking above 132.48, therefore stand aside in the meantime.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
This week the EUR/GBP pair is trading up this week after a slight rollback. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2011.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 21, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0050, 1.0212, 1.0290
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has successfully broken the resistance level at 0.9980 to roll back further. Earlier the USD/CAD has bounced off after refreshing a multi-month low.
At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is neutral. As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9980 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com