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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 21, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair has successfully broken through the upper limit of the downwards channel. However, the growth was limited by the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 21, 2011
The AUD/USD is moving within corrective wave B of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the corrective downwave are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0076-0.9925-0.9972, below 0.9803 the targets will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9540-1.0255. If this dowmwave breaks below 0.9803 it will become wave A.
Supports:
- 0.9821 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9728 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9709 = .764 retracement
If the price reverses up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0076-0.9831, 0.9972-0.9831.
Resistances:
- 0.9901 = .50 retracement
- 0.9918 = .618 ret
- 0.9925 = .382 ret
- 0.9953 = .50 ret
- 0.9982 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down (subwave C - colored orange red - within wave B of a larger degree) it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level. The Oscillator is now above the zero and possibly moving into the overbought. The levels to watch for short positions are 0.9985 and 0.9901, and possibly 0.9918.
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Fundamental Analysis, January 21, 2011
A range of mostly positive macroeconomic data has been published today in the United States, reinforcing the estimates that the recovery of the largest economy in the world is continuing to accelerate. In the American labor market, the amount of new unemployment claims has dropped last week by 37 thousand – the sharpest drop since February of 2010 – to 404 thousand. The Philadelphia area manufacturing activity index has dropped to 19.3 points in January from 20.8 points in December, a sharper drop than predicted by economists expecting a 20-point level.
In the American real estate market, existing home sales recorded 12.3% leap in December, reaching an annualized rate of 5.28 million homes, the highest level since May. The recorded rise was sharper than predicted by analysts, expecting only a 3% rise to an annualized rate of 4.87 million homes in December.
China's statistics bureau reported yesterday that the country's GDP grew by an annualized 9.8% in the fourth quarter, as compared to 9.6% in the third quarter. Economists have predicted a more moderate 9.4% growth.
In the commodities sector, the United States Department of Energy reported yesterday that U.S. Crude oil reserves grew last week by 2.6 million barrels, reaching a level of 335.7 million barrels, as opposed to analysts' predictions of a decline of 500 thousand barrels. Based on this information, the price of crude oil dropped yesterday by the sharpest rate in nine weeks. February futures on crude oil locked at 88.88 United States dollars for one barrel of oil, a 2.2% decline.
Also on the commodities exchange, silver has locked at 27.49 United States dollars for one ounce – a 4.6% decline, while gold has declined by 1.7% to a level of 1,346.5 United States dollars for one ounce at the New York Commodities Exchange.
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USD/JPY wave analysis for January 21, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110121/JPY_h4.gif
Amid positive US unemployment data, the USD/JPY reversed and was dynamic enough to reach the 83.10 level under the influence of the MACD divergence. At the same time the 2nd wave might be considered complete at a stretch. On the other hand, given the complicated wave structure of this 2nd wave, the yen still can resume downside movement in the direction of estimated correction level 61.8% (81.60).
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USD/CHF wave analysis for January 21, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110121/CHF_h4.gif
Another attempt to test the correction level 0.9540 resulted in the USD/CHF thrown back from the day’s lows by 1.5 figures. This scenario supposes the possibility of developing upside movement in the direction of January 11 high (0.9783). At the same time the whole correction structure of the 2nd wave (or b) might be considered complete.
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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 21, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110121/EUR_h4.gif
Having initiated a rollback from the Wednesday’s high 1.3540, the EUR/USD pair is trying to form first waves of the future downward section which can be considered as a corrective structure. At the same time such downside movement might develop in the direction of the correction level 50.0%, which was calculated based on the whole growth of the euro in the section between January 10 and 19.
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GOLD, Our Overview is to be Bullish, Janaury 21, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110121/golddd.gif
GOLD
Gold has been in a corrective movement since the beginning of December, after setting its all-time high at 1430. Since that moment, the price of gold has already dropped almost a hundred dollars, when it first ran into the meaningful support level of 1344 dollars yesterday.
Signal of an opportunity to buy even at the present price levels. but a daily close above 1350 would confirm our bullish overview , gold is expected to begin moving upwards, towards the support levels of 1377 and 1408 United States dollars for one ounce of gold.
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Fundamental Analysis, January 24, 2011
On Tuesday and Wednesday this week the FOMC is expected to meet. Analysts expect that the commission will not make a major announcement, however it is expected to publish a prediction regarding the state of the United States economy and inflation. The interest rate is expected to remain at the current level of 0-0.25%.
Furthermore, data from the American real estate market is expected to be published this week, with the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index to be published on Tuesday, and the new home sales data to be published on Wednesday. Analysts predict a 1.7% drop to be shown on the Case-Shiller index for November – the sharpest drop since December 2009.
On Friday, American GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2010 will be published. Economist’s state that 3.5% GDP annualized growth will be shown in the fourth quarter of the last year as compared to growth of only 2.6% in the third quarter.
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EUR/USD Corrective Movement, Janaury 24, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...uu_source!.gif
EUR/USD
From a technical standpoint the pair is set and ready for a corrective downwards movement towards the low support levels around 1.3000 from which it had arrived. A downwards breach of the trend line passing through 1.3520 will finally confirm negative momentum and allow entry into a sell deal on the pair with a first, partial realization goal at 1.3370, and a second, full realization goal at 1.3120 United States dollars for one Euro.
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 24 to January 28, 2011
_____WEEKLY______
Weekly - R3 = 1.6318
Weekly - R2 = 1.6187
Weekly - R1 = 1.6093
Weekly Pivot = 1.5962
Weekly - S1 = 1.5868
Weekly - S2 = 1.5737
Weekly - S3 = 1.5643
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110124/gppwee.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6451
Monthly - R2 = 1.6180
Monthly - R1 = 1.5885
Monthly Pivot = 1.5614
Monthly - S1 = 1.5319
Monthly - S2 = 1.5048
Monthly - S3 = 1.4753
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110124/gppmoee.gif
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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 24 to January 28, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.4129
Weekly - R2 = 1.3877
Weekly - R1 = 1.3748
Weekly Pivot = 1.3496
Weekly - S1 = 1.3367
Weekly - S2 = 1.3115
Weekly - S3 = 1.2986
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110124/weero.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4111
Monthly - R2 = 1.3804
Monthly - R1 = 1.3584
Monthly Pivot = 1.3277
Monthly - S1 = 1.3057
Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
Monthly - S3 = 1.2530
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110124/meero.gif
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USD/JPY wave analysis. Week review.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110124/JPY_d.gif
During the previous week the USD/JPY currency pair has been declining along the upper limit of the downwards corridor, supposedly forming the 2nd wave in the 3rd (c). If so, Thursday’s attempt to resume growth might find its development. At the same time, the situation is expected to develop in the direction of the first target level near the 85 figure level, or even 88.00 given favourable news background.
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 25, 201
The AUD/USD has probably finished corrective wave B of medium term downtrend - colored red in the chart - at 0.9831. Now the targets of the wave up are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803, and expansions off 0.9803-1.0076-0.9831, 0.9831-0.9917-0.9863.
Resistances:
- 1.0082-88 = confluence area of .618 retracement and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0104 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9831-1.0021, 0.9863-1.0021.
Supports:
- 0.9926-23 = confluence area of .50 and .618 retracements
- 0.9904 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level. The Oscillator is now above the zero so now is not the time to open longs. It's bettern to consider longs when the price hits 0.9926-23 support or lower - 0.9904.
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 25, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0050, 1.0212, 1.0290
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is demonstrating downside movement again. Earlier the USD/CAD has bounced off after refreshing a multi-month low.
At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is neutral. As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9980 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2012.png
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
At the moment the EUR/GBP is trading without any changes. The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing in a downward trend.
This week the EUR/GBP pair is trading up this week after a slight rollback. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2011.png
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 25, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is rolling back after it could not break the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...re%2010(1).png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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GBP/JPY candlestick analysis for January 25, 2011
The GBP/JPY currency pair is consolidating near the resistance level 132.46.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/JPY formed the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination that indicates downside movement. This combination was formed after the pair could not break the resistance level near 132.46, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 and the support level 130.45 will prove this viewpoint. In this case a decline to 128.30, where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
However, it is worth mentioning that if the resistance level 132.46 is broken, short positions should be closed as it will cause growth to 134.46
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...ure%209(1).png
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Fundamental Analysis, January 25, 2011
Index rises were recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, led by stock of the export sector. The Tokyo stock exchange rose by 1.2%, the Seoul stock exchange climbed 0.8%, while the Honk Kong stock exchange strengthened by 0.5%. In Europe, the leading stock exchanges recorded drops throughout most of yesterday's trading day, but ended up locking on a positive note after the positive opening on Wall Street. London's stock exchange locked at a 0.8% rise, Frankfurt rose by 0.1%, while Paris ascended by 0.4%.
The Australian bureau of statistics reported yesterday that Australia's PPI rose by 0.1% through the fourth quarter of 2010. The index was noticeably lower than economists' predictions of a 0.7% climb. The data shows that the flooding that had affected Australia in the last few weeks is beginning to make itself felt economically.
Economists had also estimated that Australia's GDP is expected to record negative growth in the first quarter of 2011 due to damage to agricultural production and coal exports. Furthermore, economists predict that the Australian economy will show 0.1% of negative growth in the first quarter of 2011, as compared to previous predictions of a 1.1% positive growth, due to the costs of repairing the damage caused by the flooding, which is expected to reach 20 billion Australian dollars.
In the New York Commodities exchange, gold futures locked at a 0.26% rise to a level of 1,344 United States dollars for one ounce of gold, while crude oil futures locked at a 1.44% decline, reaching 87.16 United States dollars for one barrel of oil.
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AUD/USD Continuation its Downward Trend , Janaury 25, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110125/aufvvv.gif
AUD/USD
Since the beginning of October, the Australian dollar – United States dollar pair has entered a wide shuffle between the 1.02 highs and the 0.9600 lows. Since the pair is currently in the middle of the way after having descended from the shuffle belt's upper range, it is likely that it will continue its movement and complete the downwards movement all the way down to the lower range of the shuffle.
The brief rise of the last two days has created a good opportunity for a sell deal, especially due to the fact that the pair has returned to attempt an upwards breach of the trend line it broke last Friday. The near support level around 0.9900 will form a key point for partial realization of the position, while the strong support level at 0.9690 will serve as a key point for full realization.
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 25 to January 28, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.0281
Weekly - R2 = 1.0178
Weekly - R1 = 1.0036
Weekly Pivot = 0.9903
Weekly - S1 = 0.9791
Weekly - S2 = 0.9688
Weekly - S3 = 0.9546
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110125/aufff.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1192
Monthly - R2 = 1.0724
Monthly - R1 = 1.0476
Monthly Pivot = 1.0008
Monthly - S1 = 0.9760
Monthly - S2 = 0.9292
Monthly - S3 = 0.9044
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110125/auffmoo.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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USD/JPY wave analysis for January 25, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110125/JPY_h4.gif
High volatility of yesterday USD/JPY trading allowed the pair to decline to 82.30. Thus, we can suppose that the price has almost formed the wave in the estimated 2nd of the 3rd wave in a quite continuous uptrend. At the same time, being close to multi-year lows influences the wave situation and might force the market to make an attempt to decline to historical lows near 79.75.
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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 25, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110125/EUR_h4.gif
Having slightly declined in early trading, the EUR/USD pair managed to gain 1.5 figures later in the day. At the same time, now waves 1 and 3 in the estimated are almost equal, based on this soon beginning of formation of the 4th corrective wave in this might be expected. It is worth mentioning that given the current situation, it still might try to reach the target level near 1.3830.
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 26, 2011
The GBP/JPY has developed wave 125.47-132.48 - wave B according to wave count - colored light green in the chart, and is now moving within potential wave C, to confirm break below 125.47 is needed, until then the targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-132.48, expansions off 134.19-125.47-132.48, 132.48-130.65-132.32.
Supports:
- 129.80 = .382 retracement, already hit (!)
- 129.36 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 128.97 = .50 ret
If the price reverses up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 132.32-129.60.
Resistances:
- 130.64 = .382 ret
- 130.96 = .50 ret
- 131.28 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend has turned down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero to consider short positions. Now the oscillator is above the zero, but the retracement is not deep enought to go short, therefore stand aside until the price hits 130.64 resistance (.382 retracement).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for January 26, 2011
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
At the moment the pair is testing the support level 1.4850. If it is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5192 as the breakout of this level will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
At the moment the EUR/GBP is trading up. However, the view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing in a downward trend.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 26, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is descending after it could not break the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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USD/CAD candlestick analysis for January 26, 2011
Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0050, 1.0212, 1.0290
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is bouncing off of the support level 0.9910. However, the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.
As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9980 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2011.png
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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Fundamental Analysis, January 26, 2011
A mixed trend was recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, mostly due to sharp index rises in IT sector stocks. The Tokyo stock exchange dropped by 0.4%, the Honk Kong stock exchange climbed by 0.4%, and the Seoul stock exchange leaped up by 0.9%.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, the United States consumer trust index for January was published yesterday. It provided a positive surprise, showing a sharp leap up to a level of 60.6 percentile points. Analysts had predicted a more modest rise to a level of 54.3 points as compared to last month's 52.5 points.
Furthermore, home prices in America's biggest cities dropped sharply in November – another sign that America's housing market is finding it difficult to recover from the crisis. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, the home prices in the 20 largest cities dropped by 1.6% in November as compared to November 2009. According to Standard & Poor's / Case – Shiller index, The drop was in accordance with analysts' prediction.
Trading at the European stock markets was locked yesterday on index declines after the UK's central statistics bureau reported that the British economy had shown surprising negative growth in the fourth quarter, for the first time in over a year. This is due to a drop in the construction center and the heavy weather that affected Britain through December, forming a heavy burden on consumption. Britain's GDP retreated by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The retreat has occurred despite economists' predictions that the British economy would record a 0.5% rise. As such, the London stock exchange dropped by 0.4%, the Frankfurt stock exchange dropped 0.1%, while the Paris stock exchange declined by 0.3%.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 26, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110126/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The euro is still in the upside movement, the target level has been already passed, but there are no signs of completing movement. The formed signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3748 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3877. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3550), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging again and directed up. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3748, and further to 1.3877. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3550. If the MACD reverses down it is recommended to cut long positions manually..
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for January 26, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110126/JPY_h4.gif
Yesterday’s decline of the USD/JPY took place supposedly in the range of the 3rd wave in the c, of the whole downward section formed since January 20. If so, after a slight growth we might expect another attempt to test the level of the 82 figure, reached yesterday. At the same time, as mentioned before, being close to multi-year lows influences the wave situation and might force the market to make an attempt to decline to historical lows near 79.75.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF Fractal Analysis, Janaury 26, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110126/chfff.gif
USD/CHF
Today, the important levels for USD/CHF are 0.9390, 0.9424, 0.9467. A short-term high is expected in the range of 0.9470-0.9501, An impulsive descendant movement can take place after the breakout of 0.9390, to 0.9330
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/JPY Corrective Movement, Janaury 26, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110126/euyyyy(2).gif
EUR/JPY
The strong resistance level at 113.00 forms the last line of defense that the pair may yet reach in a light momentum movement. Only a breach of the 113.00 resistance level will cancel the bearish prediction on the pair.
That said, a basis for a sell position depends a breach of the two central price levels – 112.00 and 111.80. The first, 112.00 support level, represents the pattern's trend line and will form a sell trigger if it is breached downwards. The downwards movement is expected to carry the pair down to the lower support level of 109.40.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 27, 2011
The AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave B (colored orange red in the chart) within potential wave C of medium term uptrend - colored red in the chart. To confirm wave C break above 1.0021 is needed. At this moment the targets above the current price level are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803, and expansions off 0.9803-1.0076-0.9831, 0.9831-1.0021-0.9888.
Resistances:
- 1.0005 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0078-82 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 retracement
- 1.0104 = OP
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9888-1.0000, and expansions off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0076, 1.0076-0.9831-1.0021, and 1.0021-0.9888-1.0000.
Supports:
- 0.9931 = .618 retracement
- 0.9918 = COP
- 0.9870-67 = confluence area of COP and OP
- 0.9797 = COP
- 0.9785 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9776 = OP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for January 27, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the . pair is rolling back after it could not break the support level 1.4850.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
At the moment the pair is testing the support level 1.4850. If it is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5192 as the breakout of this level will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2011.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY candlestick analysis for January 27, 2011
The GBP/JPY currency pair is rolling back after a significant downside movement. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/JPY formed the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination that indicates downside movement.
This combination was formed after the pair could not break the resistance level near 132.46, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 and the support level 130.45 will prove this viewpoint. In this case a decline to 128.30, where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
However, it is worth mentioning that if the resistance level 132.46 is broken, short positions should be closed as it will cause growth to 134.18.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 26, 2011
Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0026, 1.0050, 1.0212
Lately the USD/CAD has been demonstrating sideways movement. Market participants are expecting it to be trapped in the range between 0.9910 and 1.0020 in the nearest future. Therefore, the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.
As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0026 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for January 28, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the rollback of the pair from 1.4850 was limited by the resistance level 1.5100.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here. The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.4850 is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5192 as the breakout of this level will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/GBP_CHF.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 28, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is rolling back after it broke the upper limit of the downside channel. However, the growth was limited again by the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/USD_JPY.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 28, 2011
Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0026, 1.0050, 1.0212
Lately the USD/CAD has been demonstrating sideways movement. Market participants are expecting it to be trapped in the range between 0.9910 and 1.0020 in the nearest future. Therefore, the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.
As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0026 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/USD_CAD.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 28, 2011
The AUD/USD is basically trading in the flat limited by 1.0076-0.9831. However the wave count shows that this pair is standing in potential daily wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. To confirm wave C break below 0.9803 is needed (top of wave A). Within the daily wave there alre also waves of smaller degree, e.g. the price is developing subwave C - colored magenta in the chart, which also has wave C of still smaller degree - colored red. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0076, 1.0076-0.9831-1.0021, 1.0021-0.9888-1.0000, 1.0000-0.9874-0.9944.
Supports:
- 0.9870-67-66 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP) and objective point (OP)
- 0.9818 = OP
- 0.9797 = COP
- 0.9785 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9776 = OP
- 0.9740 = XOP
If the price keeps going up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0000-0.9874, and expansions off 0.9831-1.0021-0.9874.
Resistances:
- 0.9937 = .50 retracement
- 0.9952 = .618 ret
- 0.9991 = COP
- 1.0064 = OP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The Oscillator is now at the zero level coming from below, which may be a good retracement to take. Still it's better to wait for a deeper retracement into the overbought area (15-20 pips to go - 0.9915-20) or to a Fib resistance - 0.9937-0.9952 - to open short positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 28, 2011
By breaking above 132.48 the GBP/JPY has confirmed wave C of daily degree - colored light green in the chart. But on smaller timeframes the GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave B - colored orange red in the chart.
The targets of the corrective downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.55-132.64, 129.49-132.64.
Supports:
- 131.44-35 = confluence area of .382 and .618 retracements
- 131.07 = .50 ret
- 130.69 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the nearest strategic resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49.
Resistances:
- 133.82 = contracted objective point (COP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero to consider long positions. Now the oscillator is below the zero level, quite close to the oversold. It means that now it's the time to wait until the price bounces from a Fib support (131.35 or 131.07) and open longs. In addition the oversold area is 15-30 pips away from the current price, therefore 131.07 would presumably be the exptreme level for the price to reach.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 27, 2011
An upwards trend has been recorded this morning in Asia's stock markets, led by export-sector stock and inspired by the Fed chairman's statements that he would continue supporting the world's largest economy by quantitative easing. As such, the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose by 0.8%, the Hong Kong stock exchange rose by 0.3% and the Seoul stock exchange increased by 0.3%.
The Federal Reserve avoided making any police changes as part of the first FOMC meeting of 2011. The Fed's announcement was slightly more optimistic regarding possible improvements in the American labor market. Chairman Ben Bernanke had left the United States interest rate unchanged, at its 0.0%-0.25% low, avoiding any change to the second quantitative easing program announced in November.
The Fed's economic prediction was moderate despite recent signs seen in the United States that seem to suggest that the economic recovery is accelerating. In its announcement, the Fed stated that the high unemployment rate in the United States continues to form a justification of the bank's second quantitative easing program.
In the global currency market, the United States dollar weakens to its lowest level since November as compared to the world's leading currencies. Currently the dollar is trading against the Euro around the level of 1.3720 United States dollars for one Euro.The British pound to a level of 1.5960 United States dollars for one pound.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 27, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110127/EUR_h4.gif
The whole previous day the EUR/USD currency pair was trading in a quite narrow price range near the 37 figure level. At the same time, it seems that the price started to form an inner wave structure of the 5th wave in the estimated c. However, at the moment it is quite difficult to define the target level from which the euro will start declining, which is predicated by significantly overbought indicators.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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CHF/JPY Technical Analysis , Janaury 27, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110127/chfffggg.gif
CHF/JPY
A downwards breach of the level is expected to pave the way towards the lower support levels of 84.50 Japanese Yen for one Swiss Franc. A daily close under the 87.00 trigger level will put is in a sell position on the pair with a stop loss order positioned slightly over the last local high around 88.40.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 27, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110127/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The euro is still in the upside movement, the target level has been already passed, but there are no signs of completing movement. The formed signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3748 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3877. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3580), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging again and directed up. The MACD is descending, however, we do not see the price moving down, which means that the indicator is resetting accumulated parameters, therefore it is might not be taken into consideration at the moment.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3748, and further to 1.3877. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3580.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF wave analysis for January 27, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110127/CHF_h4.gif
During yesterday’s trading The USD/CHF pair could not overcome the correction level 76.4%, calculated in accordance with the upside section formed in the period between December 31 and January 11. At the same time there is a possibility that the 3rd wave in the estimated will become prolonged. However, given the oversold indicators, current downside section in the range of this might end near yesterday’s low at 0.9402, where parity between the a and c waves is also located.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 28, 2011
A negative trend has been recorded this morning in Asia's stock markets, with the sharpest decline recorded by the Japanese stock exchange. Index declines on the continent have occurred on the background of the decision of the S&P credit ratings agency to cut Japan's sovereign credit rating to a level of AA- from a previous rating of AA. The Japanese Nikkei has reacted to the move with a 1.1% decline.
In the American macroeconomic arena, the Department of Labor reported yesterday that the amount of first unemployment filings in the United States grew by 51 thousand to a total of 454 thousand new unemployment claims. The economists have expected a far more moderate ascent in the amount of new weekly filings to a level of 405 thousand. Furthermore, the Department of Commerce announced that the amount of orders for non-consumable goods in the United States declined by 2.5% during the month of December. The economist’s prediction was for a 1.4% rise.
The Department has announced further that new home sales in the United States leaped up in September by the sharpest rate in the last 19 years due to a 72% rise in home sales in the Western United States. We note that new home sales leaped up by 18% in the last month – the sharpest rate since 1992.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD wave analysis for January 28, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/GBP_h4.gif
The GBP/USD currency pair missed a few pips to reach the 1.6000, initiated a rollback and declined by almost a figure. However, in the current upside section the pound has a real chance to test early highs near 1.6055 and reach 1.6060, having formed a five-wave uptrend structure, developing since December 28. At the same time, the price still has potential to form a more complex inner wave structur of the 4th wave by declining to targets near 1.5700.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 28, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/EUR_h4(2).gif
During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD currency pair has finally reached the correction level 76.4%. At the same time, inner wave structure of the 5th wave in the estimated c does not look complete at the moment. It is worth mentioning that complex inner structure of the 5th wave gives the euro an opportunity to continue growth to the respective parity of the waves a and c near the 1.3830 level. However, given strongly overbought indicators, a reverse of the price down after another attempt to pass the 1.3740 – 1.3755 level.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF wave analysis for January 28, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/CHF_h4.gif
As expected, the second attempt to overcome the correction level 76.4% was unsuccessful and caused the USD/CHF trying to roll back in favour of the dollar. At the same time there is parity between the estimated waves a and c of the whole downside section, developing since January 11. Based on this, we might suppose that the pair will continue its upside movement in the direction of the estimated target near the 96 figure levels.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/JPY Bearish Forecast , Janaury 28, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...errrrroppp.gif
EUR/JPY
Only a Breach of the 114.00 resistance level will cancel the prediction bearish on the pair.
The pair has broken the trend line that had formed in 4 hours, therefore
a return to their pullback trendline and not violate confirm our point of entry into 113.20, or a daily close below 112.40 would confirm our bearish forecast.
The downwards Movement is Expected to carry the pair down to the lower support level of 109.40.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 31, 2011
The GBP/JPY is still moving in wave C of daily degree (colored light green in the chart). But break below 129.49 will end this wave. At this moment the targets below the current price level are Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-132.64.
Supports:
- 129.90 = .382 retracement - already hit (!)
- 129.06 = .50 ret
- 128.21 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 132.64-129.75, and expansions off 129.49-132.64-129.75.
Resistances:
- 130.85 = .382 ret
- 131.19 = .50 ret
- 131.54 = .618
- 131.70 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.90 = objective point (OP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 31, 2011
Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0026, 1.0050, 1.0212
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has made a sharp rebound up and at the moment is testing the resistance level 1.0026. However, the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.
As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0026 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
By the end of the previous week the EUR/GBP closed slightly on the upside. Earlier the EUR/GBP demonstrated significant growth, however, it could not break the resistance level near 0.8650-0.8660.
At the moment the view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing in a downward trend.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for January 31, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the rollback of the pair from 1.4850 was limited by the resistance level 1.5100.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here. The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.4850 is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5192 as the breakout of this level will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 31, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is demonstrating downside movement. Earlier the growth was limited again by the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%208.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 31, 2011 The coup attempt and riots in Egypt caused a leap in CDS for Egyptian obligations by 25% this week, dragging other the obligations of other nations in the Arab world along, both those of developed and of awakening markets. The riots also influenced the currency market, with the Egyptian pound dropping by 4.5% since the beginning of January. The riots also burdened the Turkish lira, which dropped 3.6% since early January. This week we expect the publication, among other U.S. Macroeconomic data, of the private expenditure and income data, to be published today before the start of trading. Tomorrow the procurement managers' index for the productive sector and automotive sales data will be published, to be followed on Wednesday by ADP's preliminary employment report, the unofficial preliminary for the monthly report to be published on Friday. On Thursday, THE ECB is expected to publish its interest rate decision for the coming month. Soon afterward, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet it expected to give a speech covering a broader picture of the European economy. The peak will be the United States employment report for December, to be published on Friday. After the unemployment rate has dropped by surprise to 9.4% in November, Analysts predict a new rise in December, this time to 9.6%. Last Friday the United States department of trade published preliminary data showing that the U.S. GDP grew in the fourth quarter of 2010 at an annualized rate of 3.2%. This growth rate was more moderate than the 3.5% rise predicted by economists, yet it marked the continued recovery of the American economy after a 2.6 growth in the third and a 1.7% growth in the second quarter of 2010. Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== USD/JPY wave analysis. Week review. http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110131/JPY_d.gif The USD/JPY currency pair cannot tear off the upper limit of the downside corridor, making attempts to complete the formation of the 2nd wave in the 3rd (c) nevertheless. In this respect, the decision of the S&P agency to decrease Japan’s sovereign rating gives some optimism in relation to possible growth of the quotes. At the same time, if an upside movement in favour of the dollar resumes, the 3rd wave (c) might obtain quite complex and prolonged shape by developing in the direction of the first target level located near the 85 figure, and further to 88.00. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== EUR/GBP Downward Movement , Janaury 31, 2011 (Daily Strategy) http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110131/eurgpppd.gif EUR/GBP A final confirmation of an end to the upwards movement will be received only after the pair breaches the major support level at 0.8560. A downwards breach of the support level is expected to start a new wave of downwards movements that is likely to take the pair all the way down to the low support levels of 0.8311 British pounds for one Euro. A continuation of the shuffling movement may form a good opportunity for entry into a sell deal at an attractive level should the pair move towards the near resistance level at 0.8660, but fail to breach it upwards, Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== GBP/USD. Weekly Pivot Points, For January 31 to February 04, 2011 _____WEEKLY______ Weekly - R3 = 1.6266 Weekly - R2 = 1.6141 Weekly - R1 = 1.6000 Weekly Pivot = 1.5875 Weekly - S1 = 1.5734 Weekly - S2 = 1.5609 Weekly - S3 = 1.5468 http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110131/gpbbb.gif Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== EUR/USD. Weekly Pivot Points, For January 31 to February 04, 2011 _____WEEKLY_______ Weekly - R3 = 1.3950 Weekly - R2 = 1.3853 Weekly - R1 = 1.3732 Weekly Pivot = 1.3635 Weekly - S1 = 1.3514 Weekly - S2 = 1.3417 Weekly - S3 = 1.3296 http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110131/uerrr.gif Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 1, 2011
The GBP/JPY is developing potential wave C of medium term uptrend - colored red in the chart. To confirm wave C break above 132.64 is needed, since it's the top of wave A. The targets above the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75.
Resistances:
- 132.90 = objective point (OP)
- 133.82 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 134.85 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps moving down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-132.64, 129.75-131.96, and expansions off 132.64-129.75-131.96.
Supports:
- 131.12 = .382 retracement
- 130.86 = .50 ret
- 130.69 = .618 ret
- 130.17 = COP
- 129.07-06 = confluence area of OP and .50 ret
- 128.21 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is still up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero to consider long positions. The oscillator is slightly below the zero, confirming the retracement, the oversold area is 15-30 pips below the current price, therefore wait for a retracement to at least 131.12 (.382 ret) to consider long positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
The EUR/GBP started this week on the downside as another attempt to break the resistance level near 0.8650-0.8660 was unsuccessful.
At the moment the view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing in a downward trend.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2011.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for February 1, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is still demonstrating downside movement after it failed again to break the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for February 1, 2011
Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0026, 1.0050, 1.0212
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has made a sharp rebound up, but could not close above the resistance level 1.0026. The viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.
As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0026 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2013.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for February 1, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has successfully broken the resistance level 1.5100. As mentioned before, stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5192 as the breakout of this level will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here. The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.4850 is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2012.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, February 1, 2011
On the United States macroeconomic front, private consumption grew faster than expected in December, completing the best quarter in the last four years. Personal income grew in December as well, completing the second month of growth rising. The Department of Commerce reported yesterday that private consumption grew by 0.7% last month after 0.3% growth in November. The rise also outdid analysts’ predictions of a 0.6% rise. Personal income grew 0.4%, as predicted.
Also on the macroeconomic front, ISM reported yesterday that the procurement managers' index for Chicago rose to a level of 68.8 points this month – the highest level since July of 1988. We note that any reading over 50 points shows an expansion of activity, while a reading under that level reflects a contraction of activity.
On the New York Commodities exchange, crude oil futures for March leaped up by 3.2%, locking at a price level of 92.20 United States dollars per barrel, the highest close since October 2008. The leap in oil prices has been recorded based on concerns that the uprising in Egypt will harm the passing of oil and other goods through the Suez Canal.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For February 1 to February 4, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.0177
Weekly - R2 = 1.0099
Weekly - R1 = 1.0019
Weekly Pivot = 0.9941
Weekly - S1 = 0.9861
Weekly - S2 = 0.9783
Weekly - S3 = 0.9703
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110201/auddddwee.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.0595
Monthly - R2 = 1.0404
Monthly - R1 = 1.0186
Monthly Pivot = 0.9995
Monthly - S1 = 0.9777
Monthly - S2 = 0.9586
Monthly - S3 = 0.9368
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110201/auddddmot.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF Bullish View , February 1, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110201/chfff.gif
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF pair is even now battling the 0.9400 strong support level in an attempt to breach it downwards and to move on towards new lows. That said, it is estimated that should the pair fail to breach the support level, a reverse upwards movement will commence, attempting to breach the minor trend line passing through the level of 0.9440 Swiss Francs for one United States dollar.
A meaningful entry into a buy position is to be carried out only after the closing of the 4-hour bar over the trigger and testing level of 0.9440 Swiss Francs for one United States dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 2, 2011
The GBP/JPY is developing potential wave C of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. To confirm wave C break above 132.64 is needed, it's the top of wave A. At this moment the nearest resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-131.96-130.91.
Resistances:
- 132.05 = objective point (OP)
- 132.28 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.61 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 132.90 = OP
- 133.12 = OP
- 133.52 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 133.82 = COP
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-132.64, 129.75-131.96, and expansions off 132.64-129.75-131.96.
Supports:
- 130.86 = .50 retracement
- 130.59 = .618 ret
- 130.17 = COP
- 129.07-06 = confluence area of OP and .50 ret
- 128.21 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is still up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero to consider long positions. The oscillator is slightly above the zero level, therefore stand aside until the price hits a Fib support and only then consider long positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com