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USD/CAD technical analysis for February 2, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0057, 1.0050, 1.0212
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has successfully broken the support level 0.9910, to rebound further. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral. As noted earlier, break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2017.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for February 2, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is still demonstrating downside movement after it failed again to break the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2019.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 2, 2011
The AUD/USD is moving within wave C of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within this wave there are A-B-C subwaves with subwave C still developing - colored orange red in the chart. The nearest resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803, and expansions off 0.9803-1.0076-0.9831, 0.9831-1.0021-0.9865, 0.9865-0.9988-0.9956.
Resistances:
- 1.0148-55 = confluence area of .764 ret and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0172 = XOP
- 1.0273-78 = confluence area of XOP and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price keeps moving down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9865-1.0147, 0.9956-1.0147.
Supports:
- 1.0074 = .382 retracement
- 1.0052 = .50 ret
- 1.0039 = .382 ret
- 1.0029 = .618 ret
- 1.0006 = .50 ret
- 0.9873 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The Oscillator is now slightly below the zero level indicating a retracement. Therefore wait until the price hits a Fib support to open long positions - at 1.0074 or lower at 1.0059-39.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for February 2, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF is rebounding after it could not break the resistance level 1.5192. As mentioned before, stop loss should be placed slightly above this level as its breakout will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here. The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.4850 is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2018.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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GBP/USD. Weekly Analysis, For February 2, 2011
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GBP/USD
For GBP / USD the Significant Levels are:
1.6477 1.6299, 1.6106, 1.5998,1.5912 and 15825,
The upward movement is expected after the breach of the last maximum of 1.6230 in this case the partial objective is 1.6480 and as our final objective we find the monthly resistance 1.6890
A downward correction is possible after drilling the 1.6130 level, our goal potential is in support number1 monthly 1.5820.
Trading recommendation:
Buy: 1.6255 Take profit: 1.6480 and 1.6890
Sell: 1.6130 Take profit: 1.5820
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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NZD/USD. Fractal Analysis, Bearish Outlook For February 02, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110202/nzddd.gif
NZD/USD
Today, the important levels for NZD/USD are 0.7828, 0.7796, 0.7749. A short-term high is expected in the range of 0.7830-0.7920, An impulsive descendant movement can take place after the breakout of 0.7740, to 0.7570
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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USD/JPY wave analysis for February 2, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110202/JPY_h4.gif
Yesterday the USD/JPY price declined further by 80 basic points and stopped at the correction level 88.6%. At the same time, if overcoming the December 13 low 80.97 is still questionable, decline to 81.20 – 81.15, which is equal to the parity of the A and C correction structure, developed since January 7, is still possible.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/USD wave analysis for February 2, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110202/GBP_h4.gif
The fact that the GBP/USD advanced above the reached high at 1.6055 proved the development of the uptrend, initiated December 28, as a full 5-wave structure. At the same time we should notice the nearness of the estimated target level, which is also 1.618 Fibo level, according to the 1st wave of this uptrend. It is quite difficult to define if a prolongation will be formed in its 5th wave, but a rebound from the 1.6180 is quite possible.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for February 2, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110202/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The euro has resumed upside movement, the correction was not deep and the sell signal was not supported by the respective level. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3853 – the second resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the third resistance level at 1.3958. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3720), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3853, and further to 1.3958. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3720. If the MACD reverses down, long positions should be cut manually.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 3, 2011
The GBP/JPY is developing potential wave C of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. To confirm wave C break above 132.64 is needed, since it's the top of wave A. As of now the resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-131.96-130.91, and 130.91-132.30-131.78.
Resistances:
- 132.64 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.90 = objective point (OP)
- 133.12-17 = confluence area of two OP's
- 133.82 = COP
- 134.03 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 129.75 - this wave is not developed yet.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero to consider long positions. The oscillator is slightly above the zero level and moving in flat manner around it, therefore stand aside until the market gets more volatile or the oscillator gets into the oversold - 30 pips to go.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for February 3, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is rolling back after it has failed to break the support level 81.30. In general the pair has been trading on the downside after it failed again to test the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2012.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Gold review for February 3, 2011
Growing US private sector payrolls has made gold even less attractive as shelter asset, even though the US dollar has advanced amid current instability in Egypt.
By the end of the COMEX trading April’s gold futures dropped $8.20, or 0.6%, to $1.332.10 for the troy ounce.
Better-than-expected economic data, released on Wednesday, decreased attractiveness of gold as shelter asset even more, proving once again that world economic recovery is continuing.
US private sector payrolls increased by 187.000 in January, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Macroeconomic Advisers consulting company. Economists were expecting 143.000.
Stronger dollar also affected the price of gold by denominating it in dollars and making it more expensive for other currencies, which resulted in lower demand.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/CAD technical analysis for February 3, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0057, 1.0050, 1.0212
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is consolidating after it has successfully broken the support level 0.9910. If the downside movement remains, break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711. In this case the viewpoint to the pair will become bearish.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
This week the EUR/GBP has been trading on the downside as another attempt of the bulls to break the resistance level near 0.8650-0.8660 was unsuccessful.
At the moment the view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing in a downward trend.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2013.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, February 03, 2011
Trade at Asia's stock markets is being conducted at a mixed trend this morning, with a tendency towards index rises, led by the Australian commodities market, although the Tokyo stock exchange is declining due to disappointing reports and concerns of a possible escalation of violence against the protesters in Egypt. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange descended by 0.3%, Sydney climbed 0.5%, and Mumbai ascended 1.2%. Stock markets in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam have been closed today for the Chinese New Year.
Despite the announcement made by Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak that his rule will be coming to an end and the calls made by the country's military leadership to end the protests, Egypt's capital turned yesterday into the arena of a fierce struggle between protesters and the president's supporters as it became clear that both opposition parties and the protesters in the streets are rejecting President's Mubarak's announcement. The United States dollar, considered a refuge for investors in crisis, strengthens against the world's leading currencies on the background of concerns over the possibility of an escalation of the uprising in Egypt. The United States dollar strengthens against the Euro by 0.2%, reaching a level of 1.3795 United States dollars for one Euro. The American currency climbs 0.5% against the Japanese Yen, reaching a level of 81.6 Japanese Yen for one United Sates dollar, while rising by 0.1% against the British pound to a level of 1.617 United States dollars for one British pound.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, according to data published yesterday by the ADP human resources company, the private sector added more jobs than expected in January. According to the data, 187 thousand jobs have been added to the private sector in January – more than the growth of 140 thousand jobs predicted by economists, although less than the 247 thousand jobs added to the private sector in December.
Tomorrow the Department of Labor will publish unemployment statistics for January. Economists predict that the number of job in the United States labor market grew by a monthly 140 thousand last month, but that the rate of unemployment rose to 9.5% after declining surprisingly to 9.4% in December.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF wave analysis for February 3, 2011 .
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110203/CHF_h4.gif
The USD/CHF currency pair did not succeed to fixate below the correction level 88.6%. As a result it advanced more than 1 figure from yesterday’s lows. It is worth mentioning that if the price does not start forming a more complex inner structure of the 5th wave in the c, in the estimated B, the pair might initiate a rollback to the levels near the 95 figure.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF Bullish View , February 03, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
US
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110203/chffffffff.gif
USD/CHF
A look on the short-term (four-hour) graph of the United States dollar – Swiss Franc pair shows that the technical image on the pair is very positive, showing an attractive buy opportunity. It appears that the last downward movement has reached its end after being braked by the 0.9330 support level, allowing us to form a buy position with an excellent risk/chance ratio.
The positive deviation on the MACD indicator combined with the bullish bat reversal pattern just formed create a high likelihood that the expected positive movement will in fact materialize. towards the meaningful resistance level around 0.9710 Swiss Francs for one United States dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for February 3, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110203/EUR_h4.gif
During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD declined from the Tuesday’s highs (1.3865). In general, inner wave structure of the 5th wave in the estimated A can be considered complete at some stretch. If so, it is likely that this decline will continue in the direction of the 36 figure or lower. At the same time, there is still a possibility for the euro to advance further to the correction level 76.4% or even above the 1.4000 level.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for February 3, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110203/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The euro has resumed upside movement, the correction was not deep and the sell signal was not supported by the respective level. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3853 – the second resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the third resistance level at 1.3958. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3720), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is descending, which indicates current correction movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3853, and further to 1.3958. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3720. Short positions should be opened only after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 4, 2011
The GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B to 129.75-133.00 (if this wave is to be subwave A - colored magenta in the chart - within wave C of larger degree - colored royal blue in the chart). Or this wave may become wave A and terminate all the movement up from 129.49 to 133.00.
The targets of the downmove as of now are Fibonacci retracements of 129.49-133.00, 129.75-133.00, and expansions off 133.00-131.52-131.98.
Supports:
- 131.38 = .50 retracement
- 131.25 = .50 ret
- 131.07-130.00 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret
- 130.83 = .618 ret
- 130.50 = objective point (OP)
If the uptrend resumes then the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-133.00-131.52.
Resistances:
- 133.53 = COP
- 133.82 = COP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is still up but a corrective wave is developing it's preferable to wait until the retracement ends at one of the Fib supports and start considering longs if a wave up manifests itself. Detrended Oscillator's oversold condition (20-30 pips below the current price) may serve as a confirmation.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/JPY candlestick analysis for February 4, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the EUR/JPY currency pair is probably forming a Falling Three Methods candlestick combination. As is known, this model is a signal for further downside movement.
Falling Three Methods is formed after the pair could not break the resistance level near 114.00 and fell sharply to 111.00, which implies dominance of the bears on the market.
Besides, the currency pair is probably forming a reversal pattern Head and Shoulders. At the moment the price is testing the Fibonacci level 38.2; break of this level will support this viewpoint and cause a decline targeted at the support level 109.56, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
It is not recommended to open short positions until Falling Three Methods pattern is fully formed. However, stop orders should be placed slightly above the resistance level 112.91 as its break will result in upside movement targeted at 114.00.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%204.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for February 4, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is consolidating after it has failed to break the support level 81.30. In general the pair has been trading on the downside after it failed again to test the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%208.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for February 4, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0057, 1.0050, 1.0212
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is consolidating after it has successfully broken the support level 0.9910. If the downside movement remains, break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711. In this case the viewpoint to the pair will become bearish.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for February 4, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a candlestick combination Bearish Engulfing, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6280, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5800-1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located, should be expected.
Bearish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator supports downside movement as well.
Stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.3280 as breakthrough of this level will target the pair to 1.6457.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, February 04, 2011
The American macroeconomic sphere provided us a range of interesting economic data yesterday. At first It was the procurement manager's index for the U.S. Service sector, which, according to an ISM announcement, rose in January to a level of 59.4 points from December's 57.1. The economists predicted a more moderate climb of the index, to a level of 57.3 points.
The United States Department of Commerce announced yesterday that orders from factories in the United States rose by 0.2% in December, while analysts had predicted a 0.4% decline in the amount of orders. Furthermore, the Department announced that work productivity in the United States rose in the fourth quarter of 2010 at an annualized rate of 2.6% as compared to a rise of 2.4% in the previous quarter. This rise was sharper than predicted by economists, who predicted a mere 2% climb.
The Department of Commerce announced further that the amount of new unemployment claims in the United States declined by 42 thousand last week, reaching a total of 415 thousand. Economist expected a more moderate decline to 420 thousand new unemployment claims.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD Bearish Outlook ,February 04, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110204/gbpusss.gif
GBP/USD
The British Pound - United States dollar pair executed a sharp rise the day yesterday reaching a record high of 1.6250, after it had retreated 130 pips and then close the day around 1.6130. Its failure to close over the 1.6200 resistance level is, in and of Itself, a sell signal.
We note the Japanese reversal pattern That shape with yesterday's daily lock.
In view that the pair has broken its support level of 1.6130 is a signal for an immediate entry into a sale agreement with two realization Goals, the first at 1.6010 and 1.5820 at the second United States dollars for one British pound.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for February 4, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110204/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The euro has resumed upside movement and started a correction; the signal weakened as the price fixed below the Kijun-sen. The formed buy signal was strong and confirmed initially, but at the moment it is weak since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ishimoku cloud. It is obvious that everything indicates cancellation of the upside movement and formation of a sell signal. Thus, at the moment it is recommended to wait until the sell signal is formed and confirmed, in this case the first target for the downside movement is 1.3514 – the first support level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second support level at 1.3417. The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which does not confirm the current buy signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the beginning of the downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is descending, which indicates current downside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the sell signal is formed and trade down with the target to 1.3514, and further to 1.3417. Short positions should be cut if the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for February 4, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110204/EUR_h4.gif
The decision of ECB to retain the interest rate unchanged pushed the EUR/USD to continue recent downside movement. At the same time, during the trading the euro declined by 1.5 figures and designated a low near the 36 figure level. Thus, the 5th wave in the estimated A can be considered complete. Based on this and given the current inner wave dimension of the recent decline we can suppose that it is developing in the direction of the target level 1.3520.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 7, 2011
The GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B to 129.75-133.00 (if this wave is to become subwave A - colored magenta in the chart - within wave C of larger degree - colored royal blue in the chart). Or this wave may become wave A and terminate all the movement up from 129.49 to 133.00.
The targets of the downmove as of now are Fibonacci retracements of 129.49-133.00, 129.75-133.00, and expansions off 133.00-131.52-131.98.
Supports:
- 131.38-25 = confluence area of .50 retracements, already hit (!)
- 130.99 = .618 ret
- 130.83 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes and the price breaks above 133.00 then the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-133.00-131.29.
Resistances:
- 133.25-30 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 133.82-85 = confluence area of COP and objective point (OP)
- 134.54 = OP
- 134.81-85 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is still up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is now slightly above the zero which means a retracement is needed fot a long entry. The zero level is 15 pips away (132.70) and the oversold area is 35-45 pips below the current price (132.50-40).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 7, 2011
The AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave B (colored magenta in the chart) within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0054-1.0199 and 0.9865-1.0199.
Supports:
- 1.0109 = .618 retracement, already hit (!)
- 1.0071 = .382 ret
- 1.0032 = .50 ret
- 0.9993 = .618 ret
If the uptrend continues and the price breaks above 1.0199, then the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9803-1.0076-0.9831, 0.9831-1.0021-0.9865, 0.9865-1.0199-1.0103.
Resistances:
- 1.0273 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0309 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0382 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The Oscillator is now above the zero, so a retracement is needed to open a long position. The zero level is 15 pips below the curerent price (1.0140-35), and the oversold area is 30-35 pips below the current price (1.0120-1.0115).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for February 7, 2011
The GBP/USD is rolling back after an unsuccessful attempt to test the Fibonacci correction level 23.6.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a candlestick combination Bearish Engulfing, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6280, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5800-1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located, should be expected.
Bearish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator supports downside movement as well.
Stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.6280 as breakthrough of this level will target the pair to 1.6457.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%206.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for February 7, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0057, 1.0050, 1.0212
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is rolling back after it refreshed a 32-month low. If the downside movement remains, break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711. In this case the viewpoint to the pair will become bearish.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for February 4, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair has rebounded sharply off the support level near 81.00. However, the pair is still trading on the downside after it failed to test the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%205.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for February 7, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110207/JPY_h4.gif
Decreasing price of the USD/JPY pair to the 81.20 level has marked the 5th wave in the estimated C and its probable completion. At the same time, further dynamic rebound of 120 pips in general proves completeness of the correction downside movement in the range of the 2nd wave, formed after January 7. If so, it is most likely that the pair will continue advancing in the direction of the levels near the 84 figure and above.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/JPY Strong Resistance in 113.00 , February 7, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...rjpyyyy(1).gif
EUR/JPY
The Euro - Japanese Yen pair is incapable to drilling the resistance level of 113.00 will tend to move downward toward the major support level of 109.60.That said, the fact it failed to breach the nearby 111.26 support level signals of the possibility of a new climb towards the 113.00 resistance level. Such a movement will create a good opportunity to form a sell position at an attractive price.
Should the pair fail to improve its price upwards, it would be desirable to also prepare ourselves to a downwards breach through the 111.34 support level, since it is likely to cause a momentum-driven wave of downwards movements that is likely to lead the pair to the low and support level of 107.00 Japanese Yen for one Euro. On the way down we may use the 109.60 support level as a preferred goal for realizing the sell position on the pair.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For February 07, to February 11, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.0603
Weekly - R2 = 1.0401
Weekly - R1 = 1.0269
Weekly Pivot = 1.0067
Weekly - S1 = 0.9935
Weekly - S2 = 0.9733
Weekly - S3 = 0.9601
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110207/audwee.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.0595
Monthly - R2 = 1.0404
Monthly - R1 = 1.0186
Monthly Pivot = 0.9995
Monthly - S1 = 0.9777
Monthly - S2 = 0.9586
Monthly - S3 = 0.9368
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110207/audmonthly.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For February 07, to February 11, 2011
_____WEEKLY______
Weekly - R3 = 1.6776
Weekly - R2 = 1.6528
Weekly - R1 = 1.6319
Weekly Pivot = 1.6069
Weekly - S1 = 1.5862
Weekly - S2 = 1.5612
Weekly - S3 = 1.5405
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110207/gbpwee.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6899
Monthly - R2 = 1.6477
Monthly - R1 = 1.6247
Monthly Pivot = 1.5825
Monthly - S1 = 1.5595
Monthly - S2 = 1.5173
Monthly - S3 = 1.4943
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110207/gbpmontly.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For February 07, to February 11, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.4101
Weekly - R2 = 1.3981
Weekly - R1 = 1.3782
Weekly Pivot = 1.3662
Weekly - S1 = 1.3463
Weekly - S2 = 1.3343
Weekly - S3 = 1.3144
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110207/weeuro.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4898
Monthly - R2 = 1.4327
Monthly - R1 = 1.4010
Monthly Pivot = 1.3439
Monthly - S1 = 1.3122
Monthly - S2 = 1.2551
Monthly - S3 = 1.2234
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110207/moneuro.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 8, 2011
The GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored magenta in the chart) within wave C of larger degree - colored royal blue in the chart. Now the targets above the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-133.00-131.29, 131.29-133.31-132.58.
Resistances:
- 133.82-83 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 134.54-60 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
- 134.85 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 131.29-133.31, and 129.49-133.31.
Supports:
- 132.54 = .382 retracement
- 132.30 = .50 ret
- 132.06 = .618 ret
- 131.85 = .382 ret
- 131.40 = .50 ret
- 130.95 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is still up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is now slightly above the zero which means a retracement is needed fot a long entry. The zero level is some 10 pips away (132.80) and the oversold area is 30-40 pips below the current price (132.60-50), which rougly corresponds to 132.54 (.382 ret) support.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 8, 2011
The AUD/USD is moving in corrective subwave B (colored magenta in the chart) within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0054-1.0199, 0.9865-1.0199, and expansions off 1.0199-1.0103-1.0162.
Supports:
- 1.0109-03 = confluence area of .618 retracement and contracted objective point (COP), .618 has been already hit (!)
- 1.0071-66 = confluence area of .382 ret and objective point (OP)
- 1.0032 = .50 ret
- 1.0007 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9993 = .618 ret
If the uptrend continues and the price breaks above 1.0199, then the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9803-1.0076-0.9831, 0.9831-1.0021-0.9865, 0.9865-1.0199-1.0103, and 1.0103-1.0162-1.0115.
Resistances:
- 1.0174 = OP
- 1.0210 = XOP
- 1.0269-73 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and XOP
- 1.0309 = COP
- 1.0382 = SXOP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The Oscillator is now above the zero, and in the overbought, i.e. the market is a bit overextended to the upside. So a retracement is needed to open a long position. The zero level is 15 pips below the curerent price (around 1.0140), and the oversold area is 30-35 pips below the current price (1.0125-1.0120).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for February 8, 2011
Support levels: 0.9830, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 0.9942, 1.0057, 1.0212
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair is rolling back further after it refreshed a 32-month low. Trading range of this pair might stay limited amid few publications due this week.
If the downside movement remains, break of the 0.9830 support level will target the pair to 0.9711. In this case the viewpoint to the pair will become bearish.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%201.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for February 8, 2011
The GBP/CHF is rolling back after it successfully broke the resistance level 1.5418.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Rising Three Methods, which indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4850. However, it stopped near 1.52500 after a break of the resistance level 1.5192. Further the bulls started to increase their influence.
The breakthrough of the resistance level 1.5250 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the resistance level 1.5418 is broken, upside movement targeted at 1.5600 should be expected.
As mentioned before, stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5059 as its breakout will target the GBP/CHF to 1.4850.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%204.png
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for February 8, 2011
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP has formed candlestick combination Piercing Line, which indicates upside movement.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair made a strong downside movement after an unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance level 0.8671. However, it reversed near the support level 0.8389. It means in its turn that the bulls activated on this level and the bears could not solidify here.
Upside movement is supported by 1) oversold RSI; 2)bullish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator.
Break of the resistance level 0.8498 will prove this viewpoint. In this case upside movement to 0.8671 should be expected.
Stop order should be placed slightly below 0.8389 as a break of this level will target the pair to 0.8332.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, February 8, 2011
The Federal reserve bank announced yesterday of its intend to widen the purchase of ten-year Treasury bonds, this in order to lower the interest rate in the United States. The purchases performed by the Federal Reserve so far have led to the increase in the price of junk bonds and stock, and in policy setters are now focusing on ten-year bonds, hoping to limit the rise in dividends that is influencing the interest rates on the market.
The Commodities exchange has recorded sharp drops yesterday due to the drop in global commodity prices. The price of copper in London dropped by 0.8% to 9970 United States Dollars for one ton after reaching a record high of 10,160 United States Dollars for one ton. Crude oil futures for March have dropped by about 0.2% to 87.32 United States Dollars for one barrel during electronic trading at the New York Commodities exchange.
Europe's stock exchanges completed the longest string of daily rises in weight weeks, locking at their highest level since September 2008, based on estimates that the global economic recovery is accelerating. The London stock exchange has closed at a 0.8% climb, the Frankfurt stock exchange climbed by 0.9%, while the Paris stock exchange climbed by 1.1%.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD wave analysis for February 8, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110208/GBP_h4.gif
Most of the previous day the GBP/USD pair was trading within a quite narrow range near the day’s opening level. Besides, inner wave structure of the 2nd wave might get more complicated. At the same time the pound still has a potential to resume upside movement and form a more continuous 5th wave (in the A) of the whole uptrend, initiated December 28.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook ,February 08, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110208/eurooon.gif
EUR/USD
The Euro-United States dollar pair is in a range of 300 - points. between 1.3850 and 1.3550 level. From here on out, the pair is expected to move back towards the upper range of the pattern, which will enable entry into a sell deal on the pair at an attractive price. It is possible to use the 1.3780 resistance level as an entry trigger for a sell deal.
We should take into account the possibility at the Euro – United States Dollar pair might continue its negative momentum rather than climb upwards, thus breaching the 1.3570 support level. A clean breach of this level will form a positive indication of continued movement to the south, towards the major 1.3345 support level – our final exit goal from the sell position on the pair.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Bullish Outlook ,February 08, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110208/usdcaddd.gif
USD/CAD
The United States dollar - canadian dollar - pair in the last low that has formed in candles made an hour a pattern, called shoulder head shoulder, from our perspective is expected to break the weekly pivot at 0.9920 would confirm our forecast upward and this would lead us towards the goal of 1.0008 around the weekly trend line.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for February 8, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110208/EUR_h4.gif
During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD currency pair could not define further direction and stayed near the session’s opening levels by the end of the day. At the same time current wave situation allows both certain growth of the price in the range of a more prolonged estimated b and complications of inner structure of the a wave with prolongation in its 3rd wave.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 9, 2011
The GBP/JPY has finished wave 129.75-133.31 and is now moving in correction against it - potential wave A of a new cycle of downwaves (colored royal blue in the chart). The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 129.49-133.31, 129.75-133.31.
Supports:
- 131.53 = .50 retracement
- 131.40 = .50 ret
- 131.11 = .618 ret
- 130.95 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-133.31-131.62.
Resistances:
- 133.82 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 134.85 = expanded objective point (XOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend has reversed and is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now at the zero and going down which means a retracement is possibly over and now is the time to enter short, or wait for another retracement to 131.66 support (.618 retracement).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for February 9, 2011
The GBP/CHF is advancing further after it successfully broke the resistance level 1.5418.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Rising Three Methods, which indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4850. However, it stopped near 1.5250 after a break of the resistance level 1.5192. Further the bulls started to increase their influence.
The breakthrough of the resistance level 1.5250 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the resistance level 1.5418 is broken, upside movement targeted at 1.5600 should be expected.
As mentioned before, stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5059 as its breakout will target the GBP/CHF to 1.4850.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%208.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for February 9, 2011
The GBP/USD is consolidating near the Fibonacci correction level 23.6.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a candlestick combination Bearish Engulfing, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6280, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5800-1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located, should be expected.
Bearish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator supports downside movement as well.
Stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.6280 as breakthrough of this level will target the pair to 1.6457.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for February 9, 2011
Support levels: 0.9830, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 0.9942, 1.0057, 1.0212
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has broken the resistance level 0.9942 amid a rollback off the 32-month low. However, trading range of this pair might stay limited amid few publications due this week.
As mentioned before, if the downside movement remains, break of the 0.9830 support level will target the pair to 0.9711. In this case the viewpoint to the pair will become bearish.
However, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0057 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
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Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for February 9, 2011
The USD/JPY currency pair has rebounded sharply off the support level near 81.00. At the moment the USD/JPY is testing the upper limit of the downtrend; its breakthrough will allow the pair to reach 83.21.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, February 09, 2011
The major publications are expected today from the American macroeconomic sphere. The relative calm on the macroeconomic front is expected to continue until Thursday, when new unemployment data will be published. Jeffrey M. Lacker, the head of the Richmond Fed, has stated yesterday that the Fed should consider cancelling its 600-billion dollar quantitative easing program due to stronger-than-expected economic growth and improvements in the labor markets. Lacker expects growth of about 4% during 2011. According to him, this level of growth may increase the absorption of new workers and thus reduce the rate of unemployment.
As we said, the Chinese central bank announced yesterday that it would raise the interest rate in China in another attempt to rein in inflation, which stayed over 4% for the last three months running. This is the third interest rate hike since October and the second one in less than two months.
In Europe, the trade at the leading stock exchanges locked yesterday at index rises lead by the automotive industry, this after Toyota raised its revenue prediction for this year, and BMW reported a sharp increase in sales. By the end of the trading day, the London stock exchange climbed by 0.7%, the Frankfurt stock exchange climbed by 0.5%, while the Paris stock exchange climbed by 0.4%.
As trade closed at the New York Commodities Exchange, oil locked at a 0.6% decline to a level of 86.94 United States dollars for one barrel of oil, while gold locked at a 1.2% rise to a level of 1364 United States dollars for one ounce.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF wave analysis for February 9, 2011
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As expected, the USD/CHF currency pair formed inner wave structure of the estimated 2nd wave (or b) and continued upside movement in favour of the dollar. At the same time the growth is either limited by the c wave of the abc correction structure, or by the 3rd wave of a more prolonged uptrend. In any case, the potential of the currency pair for continuation of the growth does not look exhausted.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Weekly Review (fractal-analysis) ,February 09, 2011 (weekly Strategy)
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AUDUSD
In my weekly analysis on the AUD / USD, we believe that the pair has found a strong barrier to overcoming the price of 1.0200 again been set back in monthly resistance around 1.0186 and then back to 80 pips.
from my point of view, if the pair tried again de1.0180 back to level, and fail in its attempt to drill, would be an opportunity to enter into short selling, with a target around the second monthly support is the level of 0.9580.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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NZD/USD Downward Movement ,February 09, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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NZD/USD
A look on graph (daily) of the New Zealand dollar – United States dollar pair shows that the technical image on the pair is very negative, showing an attractive sell opportunity. It appears that the last upward movement has reached its end after being braked by the 0.7824 resistance monthly level. Is expected to lead the price on the pair back down towards the low range of the shuffle in which it has been placed since the beginning of the year.
Now, the pair's downwards potential is stronger than ever, we predict a downwards movement towards the first, support monthly level around 0.7570 United States dollars for one New Zealand dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for February 9, 2011
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During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD currency pair continued to form a quite complex inner wave structure of the estimated b wave of the whole current downside movement, developed since the previous Wednesday from the 1.3865 level. At the same time we cannot exclude the option that Monday’s low 1.3510 is a completion of the prolonged 3rd wave of such downside movement, and an upside correction takes place within its 4th wave. In the nearest future we will find out, if it is right or not. However, in any case, current mini-downtrend does not look exhausted yes.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 10, 2011
The GBP/JPY is developing a corrective wave against 129.75-133.31 (colored royal blue in the chart). This B wave has the potential to become subwave B within wave C of larger degree is 133.31 is broken to the upside. The targets of the downmove (if 133.31 remains intact) are Fibnoacci retracements of 129.49-133.31, 129.75-133.31.
Supports:
- 131.53 = .50 retracement
- 131.40 = .50 ret
- 131.11 = .618 ret
- 130.95 = .618 ret
If the price keeps advancing then the immediare resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-133.31-131.62, 131.62-132.97-132.30.
Resistances:
- 133.13 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 133.65 = objective point (OP)
- 133.82 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 134.48 = expanded objective point (XOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term uptrend is continuing, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now going down from the overbought area. The zero level is 10 pips away from the current price (132.95) and the oversold area is 30-40 pips away (132.85-75).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 10, 2011
The AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave B (colored magenta in the chart) against wave A (0.9865-1.0199) of the medium term uptrend. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9865-1.0199, and expansions off 1.0199-1.0103-1.0189, 1.0189-1.0113-1.0186, 1.0186-1.0087-1.0140.
Supports:
- 1.0071-63 = confluence area of .382 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0041-34-32 = confluence area of objective point (OP), XOP and .50 ret
- 0.9993-87-80 = confluence area of .618 ret, super expanded objective point (SXOP), and XOP
If the price reverses then the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0189 - this wave is not developed yet.
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Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider long positions. The Oscillator is now going up from the oversold area. The zero level is 10 pips away (1.0075) and the overbought is 25-35 pips away (1.0090-1.0100).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for February 10, 2011
The GBP/CHF is advancing further after it successfully broke the resistance level 1.5418.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Rising Three Methods, which indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4850. However, it stopped near 1.5250 after a break of the resistance level 1.5192. Further the bulls started to increase their influence.
The breakthrough of the resistance level 1.5250 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the resistance level 1.5418 is broken, upside movement targeted at 1.5600 should be expected.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 1.5192 as its breakout will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5059.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...ure%207(1).png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/USD candlestick analysis for February 10, 2011
The EUR/USD currency pair is rebounding further after it successfully broke the support level 1.3538. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/USD has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, indicating downside movement.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks. However, near the resistance level (3-month high) the bears started to increase their influence and a rebound took place.
Downside movement is supported by the MACD divergence and the Evening Star candlestick combination on the day graph.
Break of the support level 1.3538 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect a downside movement to the support level 1.3227, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
On the other hand, if the resistance level 1.3852 is breached, short positions should be closed as it will result in growth to 1.4000.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...ure%206(1).png
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for February 10, 2011
The GBP/USD is consolidating near the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 and is probably forming a Descending Triangle pattern.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a candlestick combination Bearish Engulfing, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6280, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5800-1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located, should be expected.
Bearish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator supports downside movement as well.
Stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.6280 as breakthrough of this level will target the pair to 1.6457.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com