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The ability to analyze is a highly crucial factor in forex trading. Therefore, it's essential to consistently develop analytical skills. This is done so that traders can analyze the market accurately and profitably, particularly when trading with Tickmill as their broker.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 15, 2024
GBP/USD
Pound, consolidating above the level of 1.2745, closed the day 2 points higher. However, looking at the fluctuations, this may not be the case, especially since today the pair opened 5 points lower.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d0_source!.jpg
The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned downward, and if the pair overcomes the January 11 low of 1.2689, the balance line could be broken. In this case, GBP/USD will head towards the support level of 1.2610. Overcoming this will push the pair to 1.2524. The MACD line may also head towards this level. After that, pound may bounce from 1.2524 to new yearly highs.
Important economic data for the UK will be released on Wednesday (CPI for December). Until then, do not expect strong movements in the pair.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...63_source!.jpg
On the four-hour chart, the pair broke through the MACD line, while the Marlin oscillator fell downward, signaling a short-term decline. Further movement could be towards 1.2689, 1.2657 and 1.2610.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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XAU/USD H4 | Falling to support
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...5fdd71043a.jpg
The XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) chart suggests a potential bearish scenario with a focus on continuing towards the support levels. Here are the key support and resistance levels:
Resistance Levels:
The 1st resistance level at 2058.27 is identified as "An Overlap resistance." This level may act as a significant barrier to further upward movement in the price of gold.
The 2nd resistance level at 2077.23 is also labeled as "An Overlap resistance." It represents another level where selling pressure could potentially emerge and limit any bullish momentum.
Support Levels:
The 1st support level at 2038.74 is marked as "Pullback support." This level could attract buying interest and serve as a potential area of price reversal or consolidation.
The 2nd support level at 2016.85 is identified as "An Overlap support." It represents another important support zone where traders might consider entering long positions.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 17, 2024
AUD/USD
The pair lost 75 pips yesterday and broke the support levels of the target level of 0.6612 and the MACD line. The next target will be 0.6547. However, risk appetite may surge after the release of inflation data from the eurozone, and retail sales and industrial production reports from the US.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...6a_source!.jpg
The dip below the supports may turn out to be false, and growth may continue above 0.6693. If upcoming data also turns out weaker than expected, AUD/USD will head towards 0.6514/47.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...24_source!.jpg
On the four-hour chart, no clear signs could be seen of either a continuation of the decline or a reversal. Usually, the pair would continue to fall, but market sentiment appears to be changing. Commodities and stock indices may also grow.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 18, 2024
USD/JPY
The pair demonstrated strong growth in the past three days and even reached the target level of 148.35 yesterday. At this point, the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart indicated a reversal.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...e9_source!.jpg
It remains uncertain whether the pair will fall into a correction or a medium-term decline. Nevertheless, growth will halt at 149.30 (price channel line on the weekly chart) and 149.72 (target level determined by the peaks of November 22-24). In the case of a correction, the pair will find support at the MACD line and the level of 146.24. Consolidation below this level will lead to a decline towards the target levels indicated on the chart.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d9_source!.jpg
On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator shows the beginning of a reversal, while the MACD line, which the price must overcome to confirm its intention, remains downward. The decline of the pair will not be rapid (in the form of a triangle), and this will allow the MACD line to approach the price.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 19, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, on the daily chart, the British pound opened and closed the day above the balance indicator line (red). This indicates that the balance of power has shifted towards buying, and the price has settled above this line.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...c7_source!.jpg
The Marlin oscillator is still in the downtrend territory, but it is getting weaker, and the price still needs to overcome the resistance level at 1.2745 to decisively defeat the bears. It is likely that a break above 1.2745 and the oscillator transitioning into the positive territory will occur simultaneously. Exchange Rates 19.01.2024 analysis
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...e8_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, Marlin has already entered the growth territory. It is important for the price to break above the resistance of the MACD line (1.2715), which is currently being held back by the balance line. Considering these factors, the price may be able to overcome visible obstacles and continue to rise. The target is 1.2826, which is the high from December 28th.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 22, 2024
EUR/USD
The markets reaffirmed their commitment to risk-taking on Friday, with the S&P 500 setting a new all-time high, a level not seen since January 2022. The US dollar index fell by 0.24%, while the euro gained a modest 22 pips. However, we do not expect risk appetite to persist, primarily due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Taiwan. A market downturn could occur suddenly and significantly at that.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...9b_source!.jpg
At the moment, the euro is trying to break through the resistance at 1.0905 and along with it the balance indicator line, which would open the way for the price to reach the target levels of 1.1033 and 1.1076 (the high from April 14, 2023). The Marlin oscillator has gained strength on the daily timeframe, moving towards the border of the uptrend territory.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...31_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into the bullish territory. The only thing left to do is for the price to settle above 1.0905, which would also be a move above the MACD indicator line, and then the price could continue to rise.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 23, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the main event was that traders saw a higher probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rate at the March meeting to 58.4%. The speeches of FOMC representatives finally had an effect. As a result, the dollar index increased by 0.08%, and the euro fell by 15 points.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...78_source!.jpg
The price rebound occurred at the intersection point of the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe with the target level of 1.0905. The local decline is supported by the MACD line around the level of 1.0853 on the daily timeframe. A consolidation below this level will allow the price to move towards 1.0825 and even 1.0730, which is the embedded price channel line and the target level.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...f9_source!.jpg
A consolidation above 1.0905 will open the way towards the target of 1.1033. This is the main scenario. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in a sideways neutral movement. Tomorrow, the eurozone will publish the Manufacturing PMI for January, with a forecast of 44.8 compared to December's 44.4. The US Manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise, reaching 48.0 compared to 47.9 in December. This likely indicates a recovery in risk appetite.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 24, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday was a volatile day for all major currencies. The euro traded within the range of 1.0825-1.0905 with a slight overlap. The Marlin oscillator is currently recovering, and the price is moving above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, which it has yet to surpass. So we are still aiming for a breakthrough of 1.0905 and have the price rise to 1.1033 or even higher.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...6f_source!.jpg
Today, the eurozone will publish the Manufacturing PMI for January, with a forecast of 44.8, compared to December's 44.4. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise to 48.0 from December's 47.9. We expect a recovery in risk appetite, especially considering that U.S. stock markets closed mixed yesterday.
Tomorrow, the European Central Bank will announce its vision on monetary policy, and there are already rumors that the ECB may adopt a stricter stance than the Federal Reserve in its meeting next week.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...55_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price and the oscillator have formed a convergence. We can confirm the price's intention to turn upward when it moves above the MACD line and beyond the 1.0877 level. After that, the price may aim for the 1.0905 level.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 25, 2024
EUR/USD:
Yesterday's data on business activity in Europe and the United States worked in favor of the US, as manufacturing activity increased from 44.4 to 46.6, while services fell from 48.8 to 48.4. At the same time, US stock markets closed the day mixed, reaching strong technical resistance.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...e8_source!.jpg
As a result, the euro did not receive significant technical support for its growth. However, the price could also rise due to unjustifiable optimism ahead of today's European Central Bank meeting. If the stance of the ECB officials has not changed in recent days, we can expect a moderately hawkish tone in the final statement, which could support the euro.
The euro will find support if it breaks above the resistance at 1.0905, preferably surpassing yesterday's high at 1.0933. Currently, the price is above the MACD line on the daily timeframe, which maintains a positive bias.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...58_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD indicator line, and the Marlin oscillator has entered the growth territory. Although visually, the price and the oscillator may "dip" below their supports, yesterday's bullish breakout makes more sense if we look at the reports. We are waiting for the ECB's decision on monetary policy.
Considering the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the euro is unlikely to experience a significant decline if today's central bank meeting turns out to be dovish. Target levels on the charts have been adjusted due to new technical conditions.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 26, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the price repeated Tuesday's scenario – the daily candle tested the boundaries of the range between 1.0825 and 1.0905 with candles, and the day closed with a long black body. However, the price closed the day below the MACD indicator line, and it opened today below this line. The European Central Bank meeting and ECB President Christine Lagarde's subsequent speech were neutral.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ad_source!.jpg
There are currently more technical prerequisites for breaking through support, but overall, market interest in risk has increased significantly – almost all financial market instruments rose yesterday, from stock markets to bonds and gold. This increase in risk appetite was driven by strong US GDP data – 3.3% growth in the fourth quarter, exceeding the forecast of 2.0%.
Investors may be expecting a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve at its January 31 meeting. Now, any of the euro's movements could turn out to be a false move. We are waiting for the key event of the upcoming week. We believe that the Federal Reserve will be the first to start the rate-cut cycle, so the Fed may also start to show verbal signals.
Today, the US will release data on income and spending for December, with expectations being positive, and they could strengthen the rise of riskier assets, including the euro.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...cf_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price and oscillator have formed a semblance of a double or even triple convergence. We can confirm this once the price settles above the MACD line (1.0855). Take note that the MACD line coincides in price level with the daily MACD line (1.0857), and overcoming such significant resistance could push the euro upward.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 29, 2024
EUR/USD
At the end of the past week, during which the central banks of Japan, Canada, and the eurozone held meetings, the euro fell by only 44 pips. This indicates that investors are waiting for the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's decisions, and until then, significant market movements are not expected. Although the price settled below the MACD line on the daily chart, there is a small chance that the price will settle below the support level of 1.9825 since the bearish gap from the opening of the session has not yet been closed, and settling below the MACD line ahead of the Fed meeting may turn out to be a false signal.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...f1_source!.jpg
Overcoming the MACD line (1.0862)will certainly eliminate the existing danger of a significant drop below 1.0825. However, this will not be a sign of a rise above 1.0905. Of course, we are waiting for the Fed's decision on monetary policy and the market's reaction to it. We expect the euro to fall below 1.0450 if the US stock market falls. Perhaps this will happen in February for political reasons.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...07_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, an unclosed gap is clearly visible. The price adheres to the MACD line. The downtrend is restrained by a double convergence with the Marlin oscillator. We await the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 30, 2024
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair once again tested the resistance level at 148.35 and forcefully moved downwards toward the support level at 146.24, just below which lies the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is decreasing. If the price consolidates below 146.24, it will signal the start of a medium-term decline in the pair, possibly below 140.27.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...17_source!.jpg
US government bond yields turned lower on Monday.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance indicator line, and the MACD line is turning downwards.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...08_source!.jpg
We are seeing signs of a new downward trend being formed. The Marlin oscillator made a false breakout into the positive territory (marked by a rectangle), afterwards it returned to the downtrend territory. We are awaiting the price at the first target level of 146.24.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2024
EUR/USD
The euro completed a small task set before yesterday – it worked out the resistance of the MACD indicator line on the daily timeframe, closing the day with a white candle. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator strengthened its bullish momentum, which shows that the euro is ready to rise ahead of the FOMC meeting. From a technical standpoint, this will look like the price breaking out of the descending corrective wedge. This is our main scenario. The first bullish target is 1.0905, and the second is 1.0966 – the peak of November 21, 2023.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...1a_source!.jpg
If events develop according to an alternative scenario, the price may attack the lower embedded line of the price channel with a target level of 1.0730.
On the 4-hour chart, the price pierced the price support of 1.0825 and the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator turned down from the zero line. The gap from the opening of the week was closed yesterday evening.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...f3_source!.jpg
Earlier, we mentioned that of all the major central banks, the Federal Reserve would be the first to signal a rate cut. Assuming that the Fed will not lower the rate in March but only in May, even in this case, today is a very convenient time to send the corresponding signal. Recent statements by officials from these central banks illustrate this assumption well: Fed official James Bullard mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in March, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that we still need to wait for employment and wage data.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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The ability to analyze is a crucial and influential factor in forex. Therefore, I have developed my analytical skills. This is done to ensure personal growth and the capability to analyze the market accurately in collaboration with Tickmill as the broker.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 1, 2024
GBP/USD
Following the outcome of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, the British pound became stable below the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The target level of 1.2745 was tested with the upper shadow. The Marlin oscillator continues its sideways movement. Today, it started the day by trading higher. The main signal that the pound received from the Fed is the Bank of England's commitment to a hawkish stance at today's meeting, following the Fed's example.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...52_source!.jpg
Most likely, this stance will be revealed through the voting division among the committee members. As a result, the probability of the pound's growth is quite high. After surpassing 1.2745, the first target is 1.2826. Next, we expect the upper boundary of the price channel to be tested around 1.2876. This is the main scenario.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...9f_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price is returning above the MACD line as a continuation of the sideways trend. The Marlin oscillator provides an even greater sign of growth, which entered the growth territory yesterday. We are waiting for the BoE meeting.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 2, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro, which was losing momentum, received support from the stock market, which gained 1.25% (S&P 500) and lifted the euro by 54 pips. On the daily chart, the price broke out of the descending wedge and is attempting to settle above the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is also ready to rise; soon, it will move into the growth territory.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...51_source!.jpg
Today, the market expects the U.S. employment data to show minor weakness. In the non-farm sector for January, 187,000 new jobs are forecasted compared to 216,000 in December, and an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.8%. However, the stock market, along with other instruments, often developed a risk-on sentiment against labor data, for instance, on November 3rd, when non-farm payrolls for October were 150,000 against an expectation of 180,000.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...69_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price has already settled into the uptrend territory – it is currently moving above both indicator lines, and Marlin has been stable in the bullish territory. We expect the euro to rise towards the target levels of 1.0966, 1.1001 (the peak of January 11th), and 1.1043, while keeping a close eye on the stock market.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 5, 2024
EUR/USD
Last Friday, the US employment data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised the currency market. US nonfarm payroll employment far exceeded expectations of 157,000, with an increase of 353,000 in January. Not only that, but December's figures were revised upward by 117,000. According to federal funds rates, the market probability of maintaining the current Federal Reserve rate at 5.50% in the March meeting has increased from 62% to 80%, and the likelihood of a rate cut in May rose from 58% to 60%. The yield on 5-year US government bonds rose from 3.82% to 3.98%. The S&P 500 stock index jumped by 1.07%, but the euro lacked the decisiveness to follow suit, dropping by 85 pips. Oil and gold also fell.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...aa_source!.jpg
The euro still has a chance to turn higher, but it needs to rebound from the support level. The nearest support is the price channel line on the daily chart at 1.0748. Just below it is the level of 1.0730. If the price does not turn from there, the price could aim for 1.0632. There is also support at the lower boundary of the wedge, which has already been tested this morning but appears weak.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...e2_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has settled in the downtrend territory. Probably a short-term continuation of the downward movement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2024
EUR/USD
On Monday, the euro fell by 44 pips, reaching the target level of 1.0730 with the lower shadow of the daily candle. The price surpassed the lower border of the green price channel, and the channel is no longer relevant.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...af_source!.jpg
Now, after overcoming the level of 1.0730, which the price has reached, the euro may continue to fall to the next target at 1.0632. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly bent upwards, which may indicate a minor correction from the support it reached before it falls further.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...61_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price consolidates above the support level. Marlin is discharging before a possible new wave of decline. We are waiting for the price to consolidate below 1.0730 and move towards the designated level of 1.0632 – the low of September 14, 2023, and the low of May 31.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 7, 2024
EUR/USD
The market started a corrective move on Tuesday. Even the S&P 500, which lost 0.32% on Monday, rebounded by 0.23% yesterday. We do not expect a strong correction since this week's economic calendar does not include any significant economic data. The euro's correction will look like a consolidation above the level of 1.0730, approaching the upper boundary of the short-term downtrend channel on the daily timeframe. If the price settles below 1.0730, it will open the target at 1.0632.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...6a_source!.jpg
The price needs to do a lot to reverse the entire movement, including breaking above the MACD line, i.e., approaching 1.0905. Therefore, in the current situation, we are simply waiting for the sideways movement to end. The price could rise above 1.0905 if the stock market continues to set new historical records. However, this will eventually stop.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...6a_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, a small convergence has formed. The bullish target is the MACD line around the 1.0790 mark. Staying above the line will make it possible for the price to rise to 1.0825.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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USD/CHF H4 | Bearish Drop
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...479558fbf.jpgg
For USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc), there's a potential bearish reversal scenario indicated by the following key levels:
Resistance Levels:
The 1st resistance level at 0.87435 is identified as "An Overlap resistance," suggesting a significant barrier where selling pressure could intensify, potentially leading to a reversal in the price trend.
The 2nd resistance level at 0.88069 is described as "Multi-swing high resistance," indicating another level where sellers might be active, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Support Levels:
The 1st support level at 0.86865 is recognized as "An Overlap support," implying a level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing a floor for the price decline.
The 2nd support level at 0.86399 is noted as "Pullback support," suggesting another area where buyers could enter the market, potentially limiting further downward movement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 9, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro attempted a bearish breakthrough but quickly returned to the initial positions, ending the day with a 5-point gain. We're waiting for progress, probably until the 13th, which is when the US inflation data for January will be released.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...95_source!.jpg
Technically, the waiting mode is working in a downward vector, as it brings it closer to the upper boundary of the descending price channel. With the Marlin oscillator in negative territory, there is a higher chance that the price could fall from this level. Overcoming the support at 1.0724 will be a crucial condition for such a decline. The nearest target is 1.0632.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...65_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, yesterday's downturn occurred from the MACD line. This line stopped the price from returning. Marlin is currently in the positive territory, but this may not last long. For a bullish breakthrough, the price must consolidate with yesterday's high at 1.0789, which is also slightly above the MACD line. The bulls are aiming for 1.0825.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 12, 2024
EUR/USD
After a reversal from the support at 1.0724, the euro continues to rise for the 5th day towards the target level of 1.0825, which is near the upper band of the local descending channel on the daily scale.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...69_source!.jpg
The bodies of the observed white candles are small, indicating an apparent corrective nature of this growth. If the price manages to consolidate above the MACD line (1.0876), the bulls will have a basis to support a stronger rise, for instance, into the range of 1.0966-1.1001. The Marlin oscillator is still developing in negative territory, although its rise is fast.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...e5_source!.jpg
We are also keeping an eye on the S&P 500 stock index, which reached the target level of 5028 on Friday, and there is a risk of a reversal from this level. If it continues to rise, the next target will be the upper boundary of the global hyperchannel in the target range of 5101.50-5120.00, where the risk of a reversal will increase significantly.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...31_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line, and Marlin is growing in the uptrend territory. The nearest target of 1.0825 is open.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 13, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro did not reach its target of 1.0825, hindered by investors' flight from risk in the broader market; the S&P 500 lost 0.09% (although overall, stock markets closed mixed), and the yield on US government bonds edged down slightly.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...dd_source!.jpg
Perhaps the single currency will not rise further, say, to 1.10. Currently, the euro is falling within a medium-term descending channel, staying below the balance and MACD indicator lines with a declining Marlin oscillator. If the price hits the nearest target of 1.0724, consolidates below it, then the euro will continue to fall to the second target of 1.0632 – to the low of September 14, 2023. We expect the pair to continue its downward movement.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...fd_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD line but currently feels uncertain there, as the Marlin oscillator has not yet left the growth territory. Perhaps it will do so when the price surpasses yesterday's low of 1.0757.
Today, the US will release figures for its February's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the main agenda of the day, as this may influence the Federal Reserve's attitude toward monetary policy.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...31_source!.jpg
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line, and Marlin is growing in the uptrend territory. The nearest target of 1.0825 is open.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 14, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday there was a strong shift away from risk; the S&P 500 -1.37%, copper -0.52%, but bond yields increased, and oil prices rose. On the one hand, this divergence fully corresponds to investors' expectations of a slowdown in the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts due to yesterday's US inflation data – the core index held at 3.9% YoY against expectations of a decrease to 3.7% YoY, the US CPI decreased from 3.4% YoY to 3.1% YoY against expectations of 2.9% YoY, and investors' expectations for a rate cut shifted from May to June. On the other hand, earlier in the day, before the data was released, European stock markets and futures on the US stock market were falling, only accelerating with the release of the news. Perhaps the market will not return to the record high that was set by the S&P 500 on Monday, for a long time at that, and this is the beginning of a global crisis. Traditionally, we're waiting for a major company to announce bankruptcy to officially start the crisis. Last year, there were several major bankruptcies, but amid unbridled optimism, they went unnoticed. Now, markets are more attentive.
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On the daily chart, the euro has crossed the midline of the descending price channel. The price has breached the support at 1.0724, so now it can aim for 1.0632. Surpassing this target would reveal a significantly lower one at 1.0450, the October 2023 low.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the target level of 1.0724. The Marlin oscillator has firmly settled in the downtrend territory. It is noteworthy that the decline occurred after a double false breakout above the MACD line (marked by ovals). This is a sign of the medium-term downward movement.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on February 15, 2024
EUR/USD
The euro continues to closely follow the movements of the stock market. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index corrected from Tuesday's decline, showing a 0.96% increase. We outlined our main points in yesterday's review, so today, we are taking a wait-and-see position.
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On the daily chart, the euro has shown moderate growth in the upper half of the descending price channel both yesterday and this morning. A small convergence has formed with the Marlin oscillator. Apparently, traders are not in a hurry to anticipate events, so the convergence will guide the euro into sideways movement, slightly above the support at 1.0724, where the price may gather strength to show a firm downward movement.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price has already managed to consolidate above the level of 1.0724, but it is noticeably below the MACD indicator line (1.0768). Overcoming this line will allow the price to test the upper boundary of the daily price channel (1.0790). Only a break above the channel will postpone the euro's decline for an indefinite period.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 16, 2024
EUR/USD
Yesterday, under the influence of the stock market (S&P 500 0.58%) and its own convergence, the euro rose by 44 pips. The upper boundary of the descending price channel at 1.0790 is nearby. A break above the channel will open the nearest target level at 1.0825. Then, assuming that the stock market will continue to rise, the euro may attempt to reach the MACD indicator line at 1.0868 on the daily chart.
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The stock market needs to rise by 0.39% to reach its record high set on February 12. If it manages to do so, it may rise by another 1.04% to reach the upper boundary of the global growing price channel since 2009. But we wouldn't count on the euro's growth until the S&P sets a new record high. If the euro breaks the support at 1.0724, the bears may try to bring the quote to the target level of 1.0632. We are waiting for progress.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price has risen above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has settled on its rising half. However, the main obstacle is the upper boundary of the price channel (1.0790), and it is quite difficult to overcome this while we're facing a downward trend. Perhaps the main events will unfold next week. And if you look at such a tool as cyclic lines on the daily chart, you can see a reversal moment on Monday.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 19, 2024
EUR/USD
Last Friday, due to the decline in the stock market, the euro failed to develop a full-fledged upward movement, closing the day up by 5 pips. This morning, the euro is trying to rise without external influence, but technically, the price has reached the intersection point of the upper boundary of the descending price channel and the cyclical line, from which a bearish trend reversal is expected. Also, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has reached the border of the uptrend territory, and a reversal may occur from this line.
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Thus, the main scenario is the euro will fall through the nearest support at 1.0724 to the target level of 1.0632. Possibly even lower, to the lower boundary of the price channel, around the target level of 1.0440 (the 2023 low). If the price breaks above the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.0793, the channel will be invalidated, and the price will continue to rise to the nearest target level of 1.0825 with the goal of attacking the MACD line around the 1.0870 mark.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and Marlin is growing in the positive territory after bouncing off the zero line. The growth seems deceptive, especially since the stock market has not yet come into play. If the price returns below the MACD line (1.0763), this may bring back the bearish scenario. Today, the US and Canadian markets are closed for a holiday.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 20, 2024
EUR/USD
The euro is starting to form a bearish reversal exactly along the cyclical line with a period of 9 daily bars. The upper line of the descending price channel is still undeveloped, but this option is also acceptable during reversals.
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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is also turning down without reaching the zero line, but at the same time it is sensitive to the upper resistance line. The final confirmation that the euro will fall is when the price breaches the support at 1.0724. After that, the target will be 1.0632.
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On the 4-hour chart, the first signal for a downward movement is when the price falls below the MACD line (1.0763). It is very likely that at this moment, the Marlin oscillator will enter the downtrend territory. This will be a good pattern for creating the momentum to reach the support at 1.0724.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 21, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the price surpassed the resistance of the target level at 1.2610, as well as both indicator lines. Afterward, it retreated, and the pound closed the day with a 29-pip gain. The Marlin oscillator entered the growth territory.
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However, as long as the price doesn't settle above the MACD line (1.2640), there is a high probability of a reversal from the resistance levels it reached. Marlin can also turn down from the zero line. If the price consolidates below 1.2610, the target will be 1.2524. Consolidating above 1.2640 will allow the price to rise to the level of 1.2745 – the peak of August 30, 2023.
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The price has covered a distance of 50 pips from yesterday's high to its current quote, approaching the support at 1.2610. A break below will make it possible to attack the MACD line in the 4-hour chart (1.2590). Consolidating below it opens the target level at 1.2524.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 22, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound only rose by 15 pips, but it accomplished an important task for the bulls - it consolidated above the level of 1.2610. So now it is much easier to overcome the MACD line. It will succeed once the price overcomes the February 20th peak (1.2667). After that, the next target will be 1.2745.
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The Marlin oscillator is stable in the uptrend territory and it continues to rise further. A reversal below 1.2610 will be a sign of the bulls' weakness, despite all the positive signs that it received.
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On the 4-hour chart, we can see a consolidation above 1.2610 while the price is struggling with the MACD line on the daily timeframe. The Marlin oscillator moved up in the bullish territory. But once the price overcomes the support of the MACD line (1.2592), this will confirm a bearish breakthrough and it will mark the bears' victory in the current situation.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 23, 2024
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the composite PMI index for the UK increased to 53.30 in February from 52.90 in January of 2024. The British pound, also influenced by external markets, gained 22 pips. The intraday growth was 74 pips, but the price could not break out of the grids of the indicator lines in the daily timeframe.
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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is growing in the positive territory, but visually it is getting weaker. In order to rise to the nearest target of 1.2745, the price must close today with a white candle to settle above the MACD line. To realize the opposite scenario, the quote must overcome the support of 1.2610. We are waiting for Monday.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled and is rising above both indicator lines. However, the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally, in a sideways range. The uptrend is getting weaker, and it is better to wait for the start of next week.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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FOREX ANALYSIS & REVIEWS: FORECAST FOR AUD/USD ON FEBRUARY 26, 2024
AUD/USD
A reversal started in AUD/USD after the test of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator moving towards the positive area also reflects this scenario. Most likely, the pair will decline when the price drops below the support level of 0.6504 and head towards 0.6410.
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On the four-hour chart, the fall below the MACD line and 0.6542 indicates an impending downward movement. The Marlin oscillator also turned downward.
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Today, data on new home sales in the US will be released, with an expected growth of 2.41%. If the data turns out to be weaker than expected, stock indices will decline and, along with them, AUD/USD.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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