Thread: My Manual Trades Blog - Justlooking

Hi guys,

Last week heas been up and down for me. Its tarted wonderfull with the decline of the gbpusd and eurjpy on tuesday, I was able to win 179 pips ther.

But I lost it all on thursday and friday.

Thusrday a trap I has set on last sunday on eurgbp to short at 0.8840 failed big time. Right now it seems this pair has reversed its trend from down to up.

Friday three shorts on eurjpy failed by hitting stop due to news spikes. Later in the day I won some back with a winning trade on this pair, second leg is now still open.

In the end I lost about 12 pips this week, not much, but it doesnt feel good, becaise I has such a good start. Maybe better to stop trading next time after I have won more then my weekly goal of 100 pips.

Ok stats:

Profittable trades: 6...... 345 pips; $195.21
Losing trades: 10.......... -357 pips; -$198.59

TOTAL: -12 pips; -$3.30 .... -1%

Best pair: GBPUSD: +132 pips
Worst Pair: EURCAD: -131 pips

For next week I have set traps to short on GBPUSD at 61.8% pull back on the weekly at 1.5400/5390. Past week I did the same and was the best trade of the week. This pull back coincides with a weekly trendline I have on my chart, that has hold for 6 weeks now. On top of that, 1.5400 area has shown in the past to be a very strong area of resistance/support, so very likely when it pulls back here it will bounce off and go down again, it has done this kinda move 4 weeks in a row now.

Another one I have set is a short trap on eurjpy at 122.50 which is at the 50% pullback, coincides with several EMA's in the same area here.

Because of the loss on eurcad I wont look at trading this pair from now on, in the end I am only losing using this pair. Next week i will focus on GBPUSD, eurjpy and gbpjpy.. I havent been looking atthe last one, but loosk very interesting.. When I glimpsed at it I did see it was bumping its head against the 1H 200 ema last week(tuesday).. I wish I had the guts to place a short there, as it has dropped 700 pips since then, with only little pull backs, so very likely an open trade would have reached this 700 pips. It is not whipsawing as it has done in the past.

Talking whipsawing, the USDCAD I will not trade for a while as well, it is just very hard to follow where this pair goes. When you think, hey it has bounced off a 200ema, wham, it breaks through the next candle grabbing your stop.

Other pairs I will watch losely:

USDJPY when it reaches 90.30, 50% pull back and many ema's there. Short when it bounces off.

EURGBP on pull back to the 55 weekly ema. looking to long when it bounces off there near 0.8800/8780

EURUSD is hanging on the weekly 200 ema, third spinning top on the weekly chart, so it has still not decided to drop further. But bad euro news may be ahead with the Greek and spanish financial situations, so it i likely to fall further.. therefore looking to short on pull back to the weekly 200 ema near 1.3750..

So that are my thoughts for the coming week, I hope this helps your trading.

Something else...

I am posting my thoughts here on this blog and I am more or less exposing my trading adventures, Just by writing about this I am analysizing my own trading better and therfore learning from my own mistakes. But I would like to have more feedback here and learn from others as well, so if you think I am completely wrong in my analyses, please do not hesitate to tell me.. I am just trading for a few months manually and learned about forex only about a year ago... So I do make mistakes now and then, sometimes huge mistakes. So please do not hesitate to start a discussion here, it can only help us all to become better traders.

Thanks,

Hi Guys,

You missed my update last week, and that was because I had busted my account AGAIN!

I have been acting very stupid two weeks ago, let go of my patience and discipline completely!.. I entered trades trying to catch a falling knife, at least 4 or 5 times to find out later I shorted at bottoms and longed at tops.. I told here many times not to do that, and now found out myself why!

The core of this stupid acts of mine was that I was extremely tired at the time, and should have gone to bed, in stead of trying to trade! I tend to get reckless and let go completely of my discipline.. enter trade after trade without proper analysing the charts, looking too much at the 15M charts, in stead of the 1H 4H and daily.

Ok, I do not dare to provide my stats here, they are too worse to show here.. But all I can say is that I have found the way up again last wednessday with 200 pips profit and yesterday with 30 pips profit and a eurusd still open at 70 pips, which I expect to close at least with 150 pips profit as all guru's out there say eurusd will go up even further after it broke a nice triangle last friday.

I am also in a usdcad short over this weekend, after it closed a 4H candle below the lower daily trendline. entered on pull back and is at a small drawdown at the moment, but here also a lot of experienced traders say it will now head down for the parity level at 1.000. We will see if ths works out ok.

I will stop trading usdjpy for a while, I lost too much on this one the last few weeks, it has stopped respecting trendlines, ema's and such. Very hard to follow what it will do these days.

eurgbp likewise, I tried London Open a few times when it did very well the day before, but then failed big time when I tried. Also hard to follow where it will go.

Ok, where will I look at next week..

Coming week I will focus on eurusd as it may go up to even 1.4125 area, where the weekly 55 ema is. It has now bounced of the Monthly 55 ema, and back above the weekly 200. Looking at the weekly chart zoomed out there are guru's out there say that it has now bounced of a lower weekly trendline as part of an upward weekly channel.. the 4 weekly dojis in a row and now a bullish weekly candle may indicate the trend has reversed and will go up again at least temporarily. Another indication is that the 61.8 retracement level of the weekly advance between 1.2300 in october 2008 and 1.5100 last december is also very near, and it has bounced up from this level as well. I set my target at 1.3845 for the long that is still open, that is just below the daily 55 ema, which has proven to be extremely significant last year.

Another one that looks promissing is the GBPUSD pair.
After a weekly reversal pin bar last week, this week again such a pin bar.. BUT with the last few days very bullish candles (I missd the 120 pip move up last friday as it never pulled back to the upper asisan range resistance/support level, so missed an entry for this move). Also here a bounce back up is possible as it touched the 61.8 retracement level on the weekly of the major up move here as well.. When looking at the weekly chart you can see it has been strugling at these fib levels allmost everytime it comes close, so it may start to strugle at the 50% next few weeks or start bouncing between the 61.8 and 50%, like it has done between the 0% and 38.2% But the theory says it should now get up to the 0% after it has bounced the 61.8, so I will be looking for longs the coming weeks. First trap set a 1.5125 to long

Eurjpy has touched the daily 55 ema, which is at a strong level of support as well, but I am not so sure this will get back down, because signs are very strong the eurusd will go up. This means the usdjpy needs to get back down strongly otherwise the eurjpy will follow the eurusd and goes up and break the daily 55. I do not see that the usdjpy will get back down strongly, so I will leave this pair alone untill t has firmly broken the daily 55 ema, then look for reasons to long.. next target will then be the daily 200 ema.

Usdcad has broken and closed below strong level of support at 1.0220, may now be heading for parity with the usd at 1.000, may spike to even 0.98. As said I am already into a short with this one, but is tricky, I set a rather big stop for this one.

eurgbp I will leave alone, I have no idea where it will go.. The euro may get stronger the next few weeks, but GBP as well making it move sideways. At the other hand it is well above all ema's, so it may pull back to these ema's so it should go down. There can also a weekly upper trendline be drawn, and has rejected last two weeks there as well.. Looking further atthe weekly there could even be seen a triangle building, going back to November 2008, but this may take another 4-5 months before it breaks :D LOL! But the lower trendline on this one has been respected several times to the pip! So in the long term look for longs at this lower trendline and shorts at the upper trendline.

Lets see what my thoughts are worth the comming week!

I think manual trading is the best trading strategy. No need EA , no need signal. Just observe the chart and combine news. Increase your prediction capability and get success.