dont trade when you are tired!
Hi Guys,
You missed my update last week, and that was because I had busted my account AGAIN!
I have been acting very stupid two weeks ago, let go of my patience and discipline completely!.. I entered trades trying to catch a falling knife, at least 4 or 5 times to find out later I shorted at bottoms and longed at tops.. I told here many times not to do that, and now found out myself why!
The core of this stupid acts of mine was that I was extremely tired at the time, and should have gone to bed, in stead of trying to trade! I tend to get reckless and let go completely of my discipline.. enter trade after trade without proper analysing the charts, looking too much at the 15M charts, in stead of the 1H 4H and daily.
Ok, I do not dare to provide my stats here, they are too worse to show here.. But all I can say is that I have found the way up again last wednessday with 200 pips profit and yesterday with 30 pips profit and a eurusd still open at 70 pips, which I expect to close at least with 150 pips profit as all guru's out there say eurusd will go up even further after it broke a nice triangle last friday.
I am also in a usdcad short over this weekend, after it closed a 4H candle below the lower daily trendline. entered on pull back and is at a small drawdown at the moment, but here also a lot of experienced traders say it will now head down for the parity level at 1.000. We will see if ths works out ok.
I will stop trading usdjpy for a while, I lost too much on this one the last few weeks, it has stopped respecting trendlines, ema's and such. Very hard to follow what it will do these days.
eurgbp likewise, I tried London Open a few times when it did very well the day before, but then failed big time when I tried. Also hard to follow where it will go.
Ok, where will I look at next week..
Coming week I will focus on eurusd as it may go up to even 1.4125 area, where the weekly 55 ema is. It has now bounced of the Monthly 55 ema, and back above the weekly 200. Looking at the weekly chart zoomed out there are guru's out there say that it has now bounced of a lower weekly trendline as part of an upward weekly channel.. the 4 weekly dojis in a row and now a bullish weekly candle may indicate the trend has reversed and will go up again at least temporarily. Another indication is that the 61.8 retracement level of the weekly advance between 1.2300 in october 2008 and 1.5100 last december is also very near, and it has bounced up from this level as well. I set my target at 1.3845 for the long that is still open, that is just below the daily 55 ema, which has proven to be extremely significant last year.
Another one that looks promissing is the GBPUSD pair.
After a weekly reversal pin bar last week, this week again such a pin bar.. BUT with the last few days very bullish candles (I missd the 120 pip move up last friday as it never pulled back to the upper asisan range resistance/support level, so missed an entry for this move). Also here a bounce back up is possible as it touched the 61.8 retracement level on the weekly of the major up move here as well.. When looking at the weekly chart you can see it has been strugling at these fib levels allmost everytime it comes close, so it may start to strugle at the 50% next few weeks or start bouncing between the 61.8 and 50%, like it has done between the 0% and 38.2% But the theory says it should now get up to the 0% after it has bounced the 61.8, so I will be looking for longs the coming weeks. First trap set a 1.5125 to long
Eurjpy has touched the daily 55 ema, which is at a strong level of support as well, but I am not so sure this will get back down, because signs are very strong the eurusd will go up. This means the usdjpy needs to get back down strongly otherwise the eurjpy will follow the eurusd and goes up and break the daily 55. I do not see that the usdjpy will get back down strongly, so I will leave this pair alone untill t has firmly broken the daily 55 ema, then look for reasons to long.. next target will then be the daily 200 ema.
Usdcad has broken and closed below strong level of support at 1.0220, may now be heading for parity with the usd at 1.000, may spike to even 0.98. As said I am already into a short with this one, but is tricky, I set a rather big stop for this one.
eurgbp I will leave alone, I have no idea where it will go.. The euro may get stronger the next few weeks, but GBP as well making it move sideways. At the other hand it is well above all ema's, so it may pull back to these ema's so it should go down. There can also a weekly upper trendline be drawn, and has rejected last two weeks there as well.. Looking further atthe weekly there could even be seen a triangle building, going back to November 2008, but this may take another 4-5 months before it breaks :D LOL! But the lower trendline on this one has been respected several times to the pip! So in the long term look for longs at this lower trendline and shorts at the upper trendline.
Lets see what my thoughts are worth the comming week!