Thread: OcaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

Cyprus calls for bailout redesign to avoid country's collapse




FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Cypriot president Nicos Anastasiades has asked Eurozone leaders for the redesign of it €10Bn bailout approved in March.


In a last's week letter obtained by Financial Times, Anastasiades said that the bailout was “implemented without careful preparation” wiping out the working capital of Cypriot industry.


The president warned the Troika that the "economy is driven into a deep recession, leading to a further rise in unemployment and making fiscal consolidation all the more difficult." Anastasiades also urges leaders "to review the possibilities in order to determine a viable prospect for Cyprus and its people."








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Jun 18, 2013
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Flash: Gilts poised for bullish correction – RBS




FXstreet.com (New York) - The price of Gilts is poised for a recovery, as the MACD has turned bullish and candlestick’s Dragonfly Doji followed by a bullish engulfing marked a local bottom.


According to Technical Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “There is however a strong obstacle in the way – 20-day MA, which proved to be a trailing support/resistance. A break above is required to see a recovery to 116.26 and potentially 116.87.”

Yield’s negative divergence with the slow stochastic confirms the market is likely to see a bullish correction to 1.94%, which is the 38.2% retracement from the same move and the level of 100-day MA. However, after the correction is completed, the long-term bearish view would come into play again with 2.27% in focus.








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Jun 19, 2013
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Flash: BoC Poloz Speech – TD Securities




FXstreet.com (London) - TD Securities research teams remind us that BoC Governor Poloz makes his maiden public speech this afternoon/ early eve.


Mr. Poloz speaks at 12.40ET and his comments will hit the wires just before at 12.25ET. There is an audience Q&A at the event and there will be a press conference after at 14.15ET. At his recent parliamentary appearance, the new BoC Governor’s position on many things sounded just like his predecessor’s so locals may be excused for focusing more on developments in Washington if a similar tone is struck today, explains the teams at TD Securities.








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Jun 19, 2013
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Flash: Markets supportive of Bernankes language - BMO




FXstreet.com (London) - Stephen Gallo at BMO feels that Bernanke’s usage of the word “measured” as regards to his description of how asset purchases might be wound down in future was an interesting Greenspan-era “twist”, which gives balance sheet shrinkage an important “tightening feel” to it.


He said that although QE tapering is not by any means an actual tightening of policy, from the dual perspectives of market psychology perspective and asset prices, it will almost certainly feel as if it is. For now, however, he would tend to argue that this may be precisely what the Fed wants in order to gradually restore a sense of normality to things, and force market participants to allow fundamentals to drive overall behaviour and broader market conditions going forward. Unsurprisingly then, he say’s, overall conditions this morning in London were supportive of a new layer of QE tapering-adjustment (i.e in terms of USD strength, weakness in equities, strength in bond yields and weakness in high-yield FX), but things generally had a “controlled” feel to them, which is rather important in their view.








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Jun 20, 2013
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USD/CHF spikes and retreats after US data




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF saw quick spike after the Philly Fed manufacturing index came out stronger than expected, boosting the USD across the board.


USD/CHF spike short-lived

However, USD/CHF is back to pre-data levels as the greenback is having a hard time finding momentum as indicators correct from overbought levels following the sharp USD rally. At time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at the 0.9295/0.9300 area, where it records a 0.2% gain on the day and having hit a 10-day high of 0.9360 during the European trade.








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Jun 20, 2013
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Flash: 10-year US treasuries offer nice buys long-term – RBS




FXstreet.com (New York) - According to the RBS Research Team, “The odds favor a September start to Fed tapering, with the burden of proof on the data to prove otherwise. Our read after the Fed was that 10-years were likely to test towards key 2.40% support between now and payrolls, but we have already broken it.”


In addition, we favored covering shorts at the close yesterday but have not moved to buy recommendations and still have not. “We like the market long term and 2.40% support is key (watch the close), but its overnight breaking and the fact that the charts are not yet oversold, positions still need to be flushed (and are not yet short), and sentiment is not quite extreme makes us wait. Wait for daily momentum to cross bullishly and weekly momentum to get a bit more oversold and let this one play out.” the team recommends.




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Jun 20, 2013
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USD/CHF entrenched in negative territory




FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CHF technical pair has been trading sporadically Monday, having oscillated continuously during US trading, whilst easing shortly after.


USD/CHF continues to swing


Presently, the USD/CHF is now operating in negative territory at 0.9342, down -0.31% in these moments. According to the analyst team at Mataf.net, supportive structures will trigger at 0.9281, ahead of 0.9198, and finally 0.9155. Conversely, the pair will face resistance at 0.9407, ahead 0.9450, and eventually 0.9533.


Earlier today in the United States, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May), which was reported at -0.3, compared with a figure of -0.52 previously. Moreover, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (June) came in at 6.5, climbing from a previous figure of -10.5 in May.




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Jun 24, 2013
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Flash: AUD/USD faces bearish extension – UBS




FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's commodity-based currencies and outline the technical positions.


In terms of the AUD/USD, “The pair faces a strong support 0.9143. A closing break below this would be further negative. Resistance is at 0.9313 ahead of 0.9415, suggesting a bearish outlook.” The pair is moving higher and posting new highs – resistance is at 1.0524 ahead of 1.0658. Support is at 1.0363.




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Jun 24, 2013
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EUR/USD clings to 1.3100




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Despite some intraday volatility, EUR/USD is trading little changed on the day around 1.3100, mark that has acted as a magnet to the pair on Monday.


EUR/USD consolidates around 1.3100


EUR/USD saw a short-lived dip to a 3-week low of 1.3058 at the beginning of the New York session but the USD lacked momentum to drag the pair below that level. With the subsequent bounce capped by the 1.3115 zone, EUR/USD was confined to a phase of consolidation around 1.3100 where it is nearly flat on the day.


As for technical levels, a break above 1.3122 (daily high) could pave the way to the 1.3200 level and 1.3245 (100-hour SMA). On the other hand, if the pair falls below 1.3058, next supports are seen at 1.3040 (Jun 4 low) and 1.3000 (psychological level).




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Jun 24, 2013
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Flash: Treasuries a buy on global volatility – RBS




FXstreet.com (New York) - According to the RBS Research Team, “Global markets remain highly unsettled as rising volatility 'shakes down' months/years of policy-induced carry trades.”


While we ultimately believe that the odds are against the US economy performing well enough to elicit a September tapering (especially given events of the past few weeks), we have little confidence that the positioning imbalances that have pushed rates higher (in emerging markets, MBS, dividend rich stocks, municipal bonds, REITS, etc.) have wrung themselves out.


As such, we prefer to ride out the storm in cash or maybe front end Treasuries (2-years around key support ~0.40%) until there are clearer signs that investor positioning is better geared to a world of less central bank policy activism (US and China), elevated geopolitical risks (Middle East, Turkey, Brazil, etc) and renewed strains within the Eurozone. Total Treasury inter-dealer broker volume was 137% of the 10-day average through this morning.


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Jun 25, 2013
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