Thread: "RollsRoyce . . . June 25 Tidbit!"

Originally Posted by inquisitive1

lgwzard...and nothing to do with any Rv has to do with anything that you have ever done or said....get a headband, clueless.....

hummn...strange...I did not make a post like this either.....someone is playing games...

Originally Posted by eosirl2

Well Iraq cut off its nose to s-p-i-t-e its face, didn't it?

I remember well the IMF was acting as a mediator for the Iraqis in settling its debt. After the Paris agreement, the Iraqis decided to make the future debt forgiveness a 'private' matter and that resulted in the IMF being distant in the camel-dealing that followed. The just recently we saw in the papers that the IMF were back in dealing with the Saudis etc and suddenly debt forgiveness was back in the news, with ref to the IMF.

If you remember the Iraqi MoF was stating countries were forgiving and the countries themselves were stating that they hadn't forgiven, which my opinion was blatantly obvious the Iraqis were screwing up royally.

With that understanding it was apparent that the ICI meeting was very anti-climatic as the Iraqis messed it up (again <whispers under my breath>)

It hard to tell when the RV would be best presented and implemented but one thing for sure, it would have to be for Iraq's sole betterment and nobody else's. But in view of the above debt fiasco, I am not surprised that there's a RV fiasco going on behind the scenes.

I guess it is really a question of, 'is there an rv?', as oppose to 'when is the rv?'

I certainly hope many read your post...it is excellent.

You are dead on! The IMF had made arrangements to facilitate all debt relief via IMF means but Iraq chose a "deal making" path for the debt outside of the Paris Club...their mistake. When Jabr starting putting his fingers in the chili the matter just got worse, until the IMF had enough.

I agree the question still remains..."Is there a rv?"...my vote is still yes and the amount will remain as agreed upon by the CBI and IMF back in Jun 05. Only after a free market float will the dinar reach historic levels, maybe 2-5 years after the initial rv.

Truly great to read your posts again eosirl! You have a keen insight.

My thoughts

Originally Posted by Alphamystic

From my understanding, the debt that is left is not much of an issue anymore. What is the total debt that they owe?
Last I heard is was about 150 Billion? If this is correct they would be able to pay that off in a year or two when the oil starts pumping.

I think one of the main points that seems to escape most is that the oil monies will be divided. A portion will go to the people and the rest will go to sustaining a country...not all of it can go to the debt. The reconstruction of the country will be paid for by the ICI donor countries if Iraq meets the benchmarks set by the ICI...if not Iraq will have to foot its own bill. Debt relief is a key component if the CBI intends to rv. Currently the debt is estimated at $50 billion. They are getting closer but not there yet.

My thoughts

Originally Posted by EJAMM

I certainly hope many read your post...it is excellent.

You are dead on! The IMF had made arrangements to facilitate all debt relief via IMF means but Iraq chose a "deal making" path for the debt outside of the Paris Club...their mistake. When Jabr starting putting his fingers in the chili the matter just got worse, until the IMF had enough.

I agree the question still remains..."Is there a rv?"...my vote is still yes and the amount will remain as agreed upon by the CBI and IMF back in Jun 05. Only after a free market float will the dinar reach historic levels, maybe 2-5 years after the initial rv.

Truly great to read your posts again eosirl! You have a keen insight.

My thoughts

EJAMM,

Inquiring minds want to know.. is that agreed upon rate a number that is public knowldge?

Randy

Originally Posted by bluezzguy

EJAMM,

Inquiring minds want to know.. is that agreed upon rate a number that is public knowldge?

Randy

I am certain it has been posted all over the forums. The agreed amount between the IMF and the CBI in Jun 05 was 1:1 with a small variance for inflation and market values.

My thoughts

Originally Posted by EJAMM

I am certain it has been posted all over the forums. The agreed amount between the IMF and the CBI in Jun 05 was 1:1 with a small variance for inflation and market values.

My thoughts

Thank you EJAMM,

Always appreciate your posts and your take on things. Even though they don't always make me happy :)

Have seen your posts that it could be October or later before an rv. And, if I understand your previous posts correctly, it's all about debt relief, and not the HCL or the ISX coming online..

Thanks again,

Randy

thanks for all the good work, and especially thanks to all for helping to keep one rumor thread alive and not devolved into infighting or total dumbness.

Originally Posted by EJAMM

I think one of the main points that seems to escape most is that the oil monies will be divided. A portion will go to the people and the rest will go to sustaining a country...not all of it can go to the debt. The reconstruction of the country will be paid for by the ICI donor countries if Iraq meets the benchmarks set by the ICI...if not Iraq will have to foot its own bill. Debt relief is a key component if the CBI intends to rv. Currently the debt is estimated at $50 billion. They are getting closer but not there yet.

My thoughts

Good point EJ. However with the recent estimates of new oil fields and the profit that has been estimated (In the Trillions I hear) I'm sure some of the money will go to pay off the debt. Only $50 Billion left now, wow that's great

Originally Posted by bluezzguy

Thank you EJAMM,

Always appreciate your posts and your take on things. Even though they don't always make me happy :)

Have seen your posts that it could be October or later before an rv. And, if I understand your previous posts correctly, it's all about debt relief, and not the HCL or the ISX coming online..

Thanks again,

Randy

If you remember the SBA is due to expire in September 07 and has been the only thing allowing Iraq to take advantage of the Paris Club debt relief. The SBA is the guarantee that allowed the Paris Club members to move forward with debt relief. But after the SBA expires then what? IMO the revalue/reversion will not happen before October. However, it is Iraq and anything can happen from day to day.

The HCL will indeed be a great boost to the economy of Iraq but it will still take a little while to get in a groove, so to speak. Also, if Shabibi is smart he'll allow fdi into Iraq for a period of time at the current program exchange rate which would make Iraqs exports a little more tempting which would help solidify the foreign investment before a revalue/reversion.

The ISX, I read somewhere, will be online but not electronic...this would hamper the explosion of investment slightly but the ISX will boom regardless of the exchange rate...IMO. The ISX may be prepared for a rv or may have a contingent plan...I do not have a dog in the ISX fight.

My thoughts

Originally Posted by Alphamystic

Good point EJ. However with the recent estimates of new oil fields and the profit that has been estimated (In the Trillions I hear) I'm sure some of the money will go to pay off the debt. Only $50 Billion left now, wow that's great

I agree that Iraq has probably the largest reserves in the world! However, that has to help the Iraqis sustain a economy for generations. I read somewhere that the oil production is not going to top 3 mbpd until the end of 2008. So even if they are sitting on the "black gold" they can only realize profits if the oil is sold. They can, however, choose to monetize a portion of the reserves, according to the IMF, to back the currency. Although backing the currency with oil reserves still doesn't pay off the debt.

My thoughts