Thread: Sorry...

YB. it is a little like SI we will just have to wait see. even a 1cent reval we will not be at a loss. but i am confident it will be a bit more than that. GUT feeling. LOL BOB

Im sure that you can find all relevant statistics on the CBI website http://www.cbiraq.org/cbs7.htm



As far as im aware it was stated over at IIF that no country had ever backed their currency with less than 80% reserves.


Even if there was 5 trillion in circulation then there would have to be somewhere in the region of 4 to 5 trillion dollars to back them up.


Also if they were to immediatley revalue to 1-1 then how is any iraqi going to pay for a 60 cents worth can of coke?

The smallest coin is now worth 25 bucks. The only answer in this situation = reprint and seeing how it is illegal to send copious amounts of money back into the country your dinars will probably be confiscated.

Do you honestly think that big brother is going to let you walk off with a million dollars just like that?

Most of my points shouldnt need proving because they are based on common sense. If you give everyone in iraq a hell of a lot of money they are going to change what they do with their life.

Also if the insurgents are almost out of money why give them more with a huge reval?

I dont believe for one second that there arent any alterior motives here.


You seem to discount the blatently obvious treasure hunter.

I know if id just been given 300000 dollars id be out spending some money not working.

Is it really a moot point that you stand a higher chance of being mugged if people know you have the equivelant of 300k dollars in your back pocket?

It seems pretty obvious to me especially with the current security situation.


Ok you say that it is already stable.. Then the next question is why bother changing it?

If it is stable now then why should they risk losing that stability by changing things around. As far as im aware things are doing relatively ok in iraq.

and to combat those who say subsidy cuts price rises etc. The wages of ordinary citizens will increase along with the price rises to compensate.

Similar style to beefcake over at IIF.


If you wouldnt mind digging up the link where it was stated by an iraqi government official that they got the go ahead to back their currency with oil reserves i would be appreciative.

That would make for an interesting read.

Thank you.

Originally Posted by Loops

Im sure that you can find all relevant statistics on the CBI website http://www.cbiraq.org/cbs7.htm



As far as im aware it was stated over at IIF that no country had ever backed their currency with less than 80% reserves.


Even if there was 5 trillion in circulation then there would have to be somewhere in the region of 4 to 5 trillion dollars to back them up.


Also if they were to immediatley revalue to 1-1 then how is any iraqi going to pay for a 60 cents worth can of coke?

The smallest coin is now worth 25 bucks. The only answer in this situation = reprint and seeing how it is illegal to send copious amounts of money back into the country your dinars will probably be confiscated.

Do you honestly think that big brother is going to let you walk off with a million dollars just like that?

Most of my points shouldnt need proving because they are based on common sense. If you give everyone in iraq a hell of a lot of money they are going to change what they do with their life.

Also if the insurgents are almost out of money why give them more with a huge reval?

I dont believe for one second that there arent any alterior motives here.


You seem to discount the blatently obvious treasure hunter.

I know if id just been given 300000 dollars id be out spending some money not working.

Is it really a moot point that you stand a higher chance of being mugged if people know you have the equivelant of 300k dollars in your back pocket?

It seems pretty obvious to me especially with the current security situation.


Ok you say that it is already stable.. Then the next question is why bother changing it?

If it is stable now then why should they risk losing that stability by changing things around. As far as im aware things are doing relatively ok in iraq.

and to combat those who say subsidy cuts price rises etc. The wages of ordinary citizens will increase along with the price rises to compensate.

Similar style to beefcake over at IIF.


If you wouldnt mind digging up the link where it was stated by an iraqi government official that they got the go ahead to back their currency with oil reserves i would be appreciative.

That would make for an interesting read.

Thank you.

Yes I think you have a good point here.
Take this investment on the long term, it might be ok, but nothing more!

Originally Posted by Loops

Im sure that you can find all relevant statistics on the CBI website http://www.cbiraq.org/cbs7.htm



As far as im aware it was stated over at IIF that no country had ever backed their currency with less than 80% reserves.


Even if there was 5 trillion in circulation then there would have to be somewhere in the region of 4 to 5 trillion dollars to back them up.


Also if they were to immediatley revalue to 1-1 then how is any iraqi going to pay for a 60 cents worth can of coke?

The smallest coin is now worth 25 bucks. The only answer in this situation = reprint and seeing how it is illegal to send copious amounts of money back into the country your dinars will probably be confiscated.

Do you honestly think that big brother is going to let you walk off with a million dollars just like that?

Most of my points shouldnt need proving because they are based on common sense. If you give everyone in iraq a hell of a lot of money they are going to change what they do with their life.

Also if the insurgents are almost out of money why give them more with a huge reval?

I dont believe for one second that there arent any alterior motives here.


You seem to discount the blatently obvious treasure hunter.

I know if id just been given 300000 dollars id be out spending some money not working.

Is it really a moot point that you stand a higher chance of being mugged if people know you have the equivelant of 300k dollars in your back pocket?

It seems pretty obvious to me especially with the current security situation.


Ok you say that it is already stable.. Then the next question is why bother changing it?

If it is stable now then why should they risk losing that stability by changing things around. As far as im aware things are doing relatively ok in iraq.

and to combat those who say subsidy cuts price rises etc. The wages of ordinary citizens will increase along with the price rises to compensate.

Similar style to beefcake over at IIF.


If you wouldnt mind digging up the link where it was stated by an iraqi government official that they got the go ahead to back their currency with oil reserves i would be appreciative.

That would make for an interesting read.

Thank you.

Hey Loops

Some good points there. And yes I got in this for the long term investment. I believe it is going to go up some but start out small and then possibly grow over the next few years. I dont really think that I will just automatically have hundreds of thousands of dollars.....lol It would be nice and I do hope that Adster is right.

Interesting,

You can throw out all the numbers you want on this issue of reserves, but no one knows for sure what the reserves really are at this point. As example, Saddam had socked away billions and billions in his personal accounts, so Mr. Loops, do you know how much was recovered so far?

Fraud was so prevalent in Saddam regime that no one knows how many billions were stashed away in caves, never mind offshore accounts. As to debt Iraq had at the time, it was $125B, and now less than $30B, and soon, when regional Arab debt is forgiven when internal oil subsidies end, it will be even less, maybe as low as $11B, never mind the commitments of loans already open. All this goes towards strengthening reserves, and do we know what concessions have been agreed to as another means to insure Iraq's economic success?

There are just too many unknowns to debate this issue with absolute fact, other than speculation, so lets just say anyone has the right to debate on both sides of issue, but what good does it really serve other than to debate over nothing. Show me hard facts to back your reserves figure and I will be all ears, but until then, it is a waste of time wearing out my keyboard debating the unknown.

Good luck to all, Mike

very good post mike.....and it makes sense too....IMHO....Pat

Ok i just found someone saying over at IIF that the deputy prime minister has said that 85-95 percent of the hard currency is based on oil.


Ok thats bad news to me because if its already based on the oil at the current rate how is it going to change?

Maybe its so valueless because its apparently based almost solely on an unstable commodity?

I am having second thoughts though as to the credibility of that statement.

My gut feeling still lies with, as Mike had earlier mentioned,

You can throw out all the numbers you want on this issue of reserves, but no one knows for sure what the reserves really are at this point. As example, Saddam had socked away billions and billions in his personal accounts, so Mr. Loops, do you know how much was recovered so far?
.................... snip-snip ....................
All this goes towards strengthening reserves, and do we know what concessions have been agreed to as another means to insure Iraq's economic success?

that the market staying optimistic is there for at least another 25 to 45 years easily!!! And that's coming off from the Saudi sources I get to receive on my personal end... yes, insider relations however, "don't try to imply it to be mine, I too have to base my decisions on what's seeping through or rather, what's "gushing out" every weekend by the Arabs, they work during the weekends like we start a Monday week."

That has everything to do with the Iraqi supply of their oil and growth given the safer environment leading to it, eventually.

Unless you oppose that drive which the coalition forces are doing their utter best with the US Admin at the helm to achieve it, by hook or by crook!

It is a vicious circle with current events but stay in the loop and you'll get to know better...eventually!

Thanks Mike, that is a good perspective for some shaders.

Cheers to you all...getting hot here too...

YB.

Originally Posted by Loops

Ok i just found someone saying over at IIF that the deputy prime minister has said that 85-95 percent of the hard currency is based on oil.


Ok thats bad news to me because if its already based on the oil at the current rate how is it going to change?

Maybe its so valueless because its apparently based almost solely on an unstable commodity?

I am having second thoughts though as to the credibility of that statement.

Interesting,

I have never seen where any figure was given on how they come to a reserve ratio, either in the past, or future, and this demonstrates the reason why no one yet knows what the formula will be once all is settled.

If it were true, then how can you say oil is an unstable commodity, because it keeps boucing around $70.00 for months? Or do you believe it will drop back to where it was for years? Oil has been a stable commodity with an upword trend well defined, so this is hardly an unstable commodity.

As to current rate, you forgot that when dinar was $3.00 plus to dollar, there were far more problems than there are now economically speaking. The Saddam regime was so full of fraud that even Saddam was banking billions into his own accounts, and counterfeit currency was running rampant, hardly a sound economic policy. What were reserves then? If based on oil, what was the price per barrel at that time?

Oil is at record highs, and will remain so forever, if not even much higher if situation in Iraq escalates, or Nigeria, Venezuela, and then again, Russia as they move to control oil under government seizures of private oil companies as they did with Yukos recently. Any of these issues could cause prices to rise further, but there is no one issue which would create lower prices of oil. I can't think of a commodity which is in the same category as oil.

I know there are international companies lining up with hundreds of billions in investment money waiting to get their piece of Iraqi oil reserves, and this is cash which will further bolster reserves, so it is not all about the oil, it is based on the value of this oil to the world. Given the issues in Venezuela and Chavez threats to US companies similar to what is happening in Russia, it doesn't take a genious to figure out US oil companies are going to be cut out of region, so they are most interested in Iraq for their own survival, and willing to pay Iraq billions to partner with gov., so there will be a growing reserve beyond belief in a few months time.

As example, there are already new explorations going on funded by international oil companies in the Kurdish region, and has been for over a year, yet no one knows about it except insiders. In fact, it was only recently released that even larger reserves have been found which are larger than all of Iraq's current defined reserves, so look for this to become main stream knowledge in the next couple months. When this is disclosed, it will make Iraq the number one country in oil reserves, so hang on,

Good luck to all, Mike

Very true Mike. And besides, what's our good 'ol American currency BACKED by?! (Loops, if you say gold in Fort Knox....it's gone I hear...)