Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Dinar Cha Ching

My turn ahill.

1345-1338=7

The difference is the BUY and SELL rates. 2 point difference depending on which on you use. SELL is the one to use.

Notes
Number of banks 5 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1338 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ 1336 -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) 3.820.000
Total offers for buying (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) 3.820.000

I see the forum is slow. Here is an article from New York Post from today - 12/26/06. It is a long article.

THE BOOM OUTSIDE BAGHDAD By AMIR TAHERI - New York Post Online Edition: Seven

I will post only what I found interesting:

......

When the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank reported two years ago that the Iraqi economy was heading for a boom, skeptics dismissed it as misplaced optimism. Now, however, even some of those who opposed the toppling of Saddam Hussein admit that many Iraqis share that optimism.

Newsweek has just hailed the emergence of a booming market economy in Iraq as "the mother of all surprises," noting that "Iraqis are more optimistic about the future than most Americans are." The reason, of course, is that Iraqis know what is going on in their country while Americans are fed a diet of exclusively negative reporting from Iraq.

The growing dynamism of the Iraqi economy is reflected in the steady increase in the value of the national currency, the dinar, against the three currencies in direct competition with it in the Iraqi marketplace: the Iranian rial, the Kuwaiti dinar and the U.S. dollar, since January 2006.

No doubt, part of the dinar's strength reflects the rise in Iraq's income from oil exports to almost $40 billion in 2006, an all-time record. But oil alone does not explain all, since both Iran and Kuwait are bigger exporters than Iraq.

But a good part of the boom is due to an unexpected flow of foreign capital. This has been facilitated by the prospect of a liberal law on direct foreign investments, which exists only in such free-trade parts of the region as Dubai and Bahrain. None of Iraq's six neighbors offers such guarantee for the free flow of capital to and from the country.
....

"Whatever happens, Iraq is Iraq," says a Kuwaiti businessman, building hotels in the south. "Iraq will always remain the country with the world's largest oil reserves and the Middle East's biggest resources of water."
......

But what about continued terrorist attacks? Most foreign investors coming to make money in Iraq shrug their shoulders. "Doing business in any Arab country is always risky," says a Turkish investor who has set up a trucking company and a taxi service. "In some Arab countries, you risk nationalization or straight confiscation by the ruler. In other Arab countries, you must give a cut to one of the emirs. Here, you face possible terrorist attacks. But such attacks are transitory."

....

THE WHOLE ARTICLE IS A GOOD READ THOUGH.

Originally Posted by Par77

NEWS AMERICAS
Study: Oil crisis looming in Iran
Iran's need for nuclear power might be genuine as its oil production is falling, a US report says [AFP]

Iran's nuclear ambitions are motivated not just by a desire for regional supremacy but by a potentially devastating crisis in its oil industry, a US researcher says.

Iran's image is of an oil producer with plentiful reserves, but it could soon face an energy crunch owing to failing infrastructure and lack of investments, Roger Stern of Johns Hopkins University said in a report made public on Monday.

Writing in the respected Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States, the professor of geography and environmental engineering said Iran's oil problems have the potential to topple the clerical government.

Stern said there was no reason to doubt US-led accusations that Iran's drive to develop nuclear energy has more sinister ends in mind, to entrench the regime in power and fend off US military hegemony in the Gulf region.

"But it cannot be inferred from this that all Irani(an) claims must be false," he said.

"The regime's dependence on export revenue suggests that it could need nuclear power as badly as it claims."

Oil deficiencies

Many of Iran's oil deficiencies are of its own making, Stern says, noting that generous domestic subsidies for petrol mean that Iran's national oil company cannot make money at home and so needs to export as much as it can.

But rapid population growth means that domestic demand is rising all the time, while authorities have let their refineries and pipelines fray.

"The regime's dependence on export revenue suggests that it could need nuclear power as badly as it claims"

Roger Stern,
Johns Hopkins University professor

So Iran, despite being the second-biggest exporter in the Organisation of the Petrol Exporting Countries (Opec) behind Saudi Arabia, actually has to import oil products like petrol to cope with demand.

Stern calculated that since 1980, energy demand in Iran has risen 6.4 per cent, exceeding supply growth of 5.6 per cent. Exports meanwhile have stagnated since peaking in 1996.

For at least 18 months, Iran has failed to meet its quota for oil production set by Opec, he said.

The strong suggestion, Stern said, is that Iran's oil production is now actually falling, despite the bonanza that exporters have enjoyed from a period of record-high crude prices.

And a nationalistic authorities are fuelling the problem by making life ever-harder for foreign oil companies, he said.

Contractual problems

Stern noted sudden contractual problems faced by India in its bid to negotiate for supplies of Iranian natural gas, after New Delhi failed to vote with Tehran at a meeting of the UN atomic watchdog.

He said: "Iran's petroleum investment climate therefore appears to have greatly deteriorated since 1998-2004, a period when investment was insufficient to offset the recent production decline.

"Zero future foreign investment thus appears plausible."

Overall, according to Stern, it "seems plausible that Iran's claim to need nuclear power might be genuine, an indicator of distress from anticipated export revenue shortfalls.

"If so, the Irani regime may be more vulnerable than is presently understood."

Much of this sounds very familiar. The concern about the population is only going to get worse because they have a very young population due to the Iran/Iraq war. I'm thinking maybe this once in a lifetime opportunity with the dinar could become a twice in a lifetime opportunity. Hopefully bloodlessly though.

Can you say Rial? At 9,222:1 it's quite a bargin!

Originally Posted by DLMCFX

The 834 daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq day Tuesday 2006 / 12/ 26 so the results were as follows :
Details Notes
Number of banks 5 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1338 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ 1336 -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) 3.820.000
Total offers for buying (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) 3.820.000

A negative 1,120,000 USD or 1,498,560,000 Dinars Today folks...are they paying bills or lower denoms going out?

Socata will do the official posting...

thanks
Al

Originally Posted by Jola

"Whatever happens, Iraq is Iraq," says a Kuwaiti businessman, building hotels in the south. "Iraq will always remain the country with the world's largest oil reserves and the Middle East's biggest resources of water."

This was a great quote and a confirmation of what we believe. $4+ in the future is not out of the question.

Number of banks 5 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1338 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ 1336 -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) 3.820.000
Total offers for buying (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) 3.820.000 -----


Goooooooooooooood Morning RolClub


1338 and not even so much as a "Thank you Mame" on the way by. All the IMF hype and the magical 1345 came and went without much of a fight. I think this sets the stage for an anticlimactic 1260 level and beyond. IMO we're headed for a reval that we've all been waiting for. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Dec 31st or there abouts should be pretty significant in terms of our investment. As I have stated before, the logical thing would be for them to enact the new budget and the new year with a revalued dinar. Again, logic doesn't seem to be one of the of the Iraqi's strong suits. I didn't say they weren't smart, because this program they are on is amazing, however it does lack some logic from time to time. Maybe when the whole picture is finally unveiled we'll all see the genius behind it, but for now, we live from auction to auction. After all, we are approaching the 10% mark since the dramatic reduction started on or near Nov 1st.



1. The dinar to the dollar is down 7 more points today from 1345 to 1338

2. A negative $1,120,000 (net) worth of dinars, (IQD - 1,496,320,000) out of circulation
3. 5 banks participating.

4. 52nd auction since the beginning of CBI's reval plan

5. 87 days into the CBI's reval plan.

6. 2,858,411,027,000 dinars pulled from circulation !!

7. 1,496,320,000 Dinars back into circulation today !!

8. 139 dinar change since Nov 1st (baseline was 1477) 9.410% increase in value of the dinar since beginning of reval plan.

9. 22 point reduction in the rate so far this week. Was at 1360 at the end of last week, 1338 this week.

10. 97 point drop so far in the month of Dec. Ended at 1435 in Nov, now stands at 1338

Originally Posted by Hope Full

it looks like we shall pass the imf total of 1345.

Originally Posted by Dinar Cha Ching

Exactly. We'll see this number just pass by on the way to the real RV.

Announcement No.(834)

D.G. of Foreign Exchange Control

The 834 daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq day Tuesday 2006 / 12/ 26 so the results were as follows :
Details Notes
Number of banks 5 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1338 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ 1336 -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) 3.820.000
Total offers for buying (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) 3.820.000 -----

And there it goes!

I was just reading this article saying that the 2007 budget has been calculated at 1260. Maliki approved it, the president approved it...Could they just change the rate AFTER it is approved by Parliament - like a small detail that has been forgotten??

Could it be one of those "propose amendments on forecast expenditure or income." in this article?

Kuna site|Story page|Parliament to examine state budget after being ble...12/24/2006

Parliament to examine state budget after being blessed by government
ECO-IRAQ-BUDGET
Parliament to examine state budget after being blessed by government

BAGHDAD, Dec 24 (KUNA) -- Presidency of the Iraqi Parliament was notified on Sunday about the 2007 state budget projected to stand at 41 billion US dollars with a hike of USD 11 billion compared to the previous budget, a chief legislator said.

Speaking at a news conference at the Palace of Conferences in the capital, First Deputy Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament Khaled Al-Attiah said the presidency of the assembly received a document outlining the projected budget, adding that it was submitted to the parliamentary committee of economic and investment affairs for examination.

The new budget has been worked out to secure up to 136,000 new jobs, Al-Attiah said.

The projected budget had already been blessed by the government. The parliament has the authority to examine it, propose amendments on forecast expenditure or income.

Minister of State for Parliament Affairs Safaa Eddine Al-Safi said the new budget includes USD 10 billion for investments, USD seven billion for security and USD 2.6 billion for education and teaching, double the allocation for this sector in the previous budget.(end) ah.

Originally Posted by Jola

I was just reading this article saying that the 2007 budget has been calculated at 1260. Maliki approved it, the president approved it...Could they just change the rate AFTER it is approved by Parliament - like a small detail that has been forgotten??

Have you seen proof that it is done by Maliki, Talabani and Parliament at the rate of 1260?

I don't. They can have it done at a rate of 1:1 but tells something different!