Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by DayDream

Susie, I guess I am missing the point. Were you able to find the link to the post? I'm not sure where the yazzman rate of $3.?? came from...is that in dinars or dollars and was there a link backing this up? As far as having nothing to do with the previous rate, it actually does. The 3.22USD/.31 IQD rate was ONLY available to Saddam Hussein and his cronies, a rate that has remained the same since 1982. For the Iraqis outside of Saddam's inner circle, the only way to obtain foreign currency was through the black market. From my understanding of the things I have read, the current peg had been established off of a survey by CBI of the operative black market USD-IQD rates post-invasion. The "black market" set the rate...the 3.22USD/.31 IQD was a faux rate imposed by Saddam for HIS benefit. So I don't understand this statement of having NOTHING to do with the previous rate, when it had EVERYTHING to do with it. So much so that it was always a bone of contention with the CBI. (IM NOT SO SURE ABOUT THAT CONSIDERING THE GOLD THAT WAS IN SWITZERLAND TO BACK IT)

As of today there is NO "black market" rate to speak of (and this in the context of a tradition of black markets under the Sadaam regime which set a completely fictional exchange rate).The most serious problem for pegs arises when the pegged value departs seriously from supply and demand (and/or economic fundamentals) equilibrium. Pegged rates too high end up penalizing domestic production in favour of imports (which seem cheap), too low is nice for exports but may feed inflation. But the key practical indicator for a truly unreasonable rate is the emergence of a black market with rates seriously different than the official one.

There is not a central bank in the world that doesn’t intervene to some extent to manage its currency value, and so long as a Central Bank has foreign currency reserves, of course, it can maintain any rate it wants by buying or selling where private sectors will not. That being said, obviously maintaining a value far off what the market will support is expensive, and experience over the past 30-40 years suggests that rates divorced from supply and demand reality (i.e. something far over/under what a ‘free float’ or pure market rate would set: size and economic importance of the country counts of course) suggest that even when a cash flush Central Bank can defend a rate, a black market will emerge. A rough rule of thumb, no black market, the exchange rate is, at the very least, not wildly unrealistic. It may not be a good rate, or the best rate, but if there is no black market, one has nice practical evidence that the rate is not from outer space, whatever theoretical models and the like say. (i believe they were establishing these with their sales of dollars out of the country in the last few months)

Alot has happened in 3 years, not much positive. However, that merely underlines that despite a tradition of black market dealing, despite instability, CBI has managed to achieve a relative stability. Of course, everyone is driving blind in Iraq and any “market conditions” are… well "messed up" in Iraq. Nevertheless, messed up war market conditions are still market conditions, but regardless, war markets do transmit information, and the ability of a Central Bank to maintain currency value does transmit some real information.

So saying that the black market rate has nothing to do with the value of the dinar just doesn't make ANY sense to me. And for the CBI to say they want to return to the Yazzmen rate says to me that they are trying to stay one step ahead of the marketers to get the rate they want when the gougers raise their ugly head. JMO Hope I'm on the right track of what your wanting to know, that link would help.

Cheers!
DayDream

its in the history somewhere im sure. nevertheless, its going to be over a buck twenty of this ive been sure since the beginning because of the kurds. im very inclined to believe over two dollars at this point simply because of the oil news that has emerged recently, and the debt news, and the gcc proposed membership, and the predicted price of oil futures, and the amount of oil iraq is sitting on. i also now dont believe that it would be an issue for big investors to drop over $2 on each dinar considering where its headed in a big hurry.

folks, not only are we going to be wealthy but we are about to begin, and be part of, the new world order.

Does anyone know the actual amount of NID that printed? It would be great to have a link to the info.

Thanks!!!

There are 2 things that are important concerning when they reval. I think they will reval before the 10k handout and implementing the FIL. Now, the GOI is getting alot of heat for the FIL not happening and the Iraqi's don't care about the 10k with todays worth. I honestly don't believe that they can continue to put these 2 things off until December 12, especially the FIL. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Lord knows I've been wrong plenty of times with this.

Just for fun, let's guess what the rate of tomorrow's auction and amount bought at auction will be.

I am guessing back to 1460 and 97 million bought.


I think they will play an up-down game now that the cats outta the bag.

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

i hate to admit that it will take that long to raise big enough for us to want to cash in but i suspect thats whats happening. it will continue to climb up to that 13xx mark they set and then they will WHAMMO!!

Does this mean that you are slipping to at least December as to when you think "WHAMMO" will occur?

I guess 1450, and 65 mil bought. Last one before this thing hits Sunday.

Originally Posted by lndmn_01

Does anyone know the actual amount of NID that printed? It would be great to have a link to the info.

Thanks!!!

20 Trillion

Approx.

10 Trillion deposits

10 Trillion Circ.

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

lol HISTORY. been talked about maybe a thousand times now. most recently was yesterday or the day before i believe.

I found where it was discussed yesterday the only info we came up with was 4..5 trillion originally exchanged 27%+ growth in circulation in '05, 6.1% in '06(for a total of 6.08 trillion). The only problem is the CBI shows 9.7 trillion in circulation and 9.7 trillion on deposit as of August. I thought I had once heard there was only 9 trillion printed and was thinking if we could find actual numbers on the printing we could prove/disprove he CBI's M@ statment...

Originally Posted by Mike5200

Well don't just post and run -What facts ,theory,research, intellectual arguement etc. do you have to back this statement?

That was his intellectual contribution to the discussion.
Man, I sure will miss Homy......NOT!

OSOK

Originally Posted by Inscrutable

Just for fun, let's guess what the rate of tomorrow's auction and amount bought at auction will be.

I am guessing back to 1460 and 97 million bought.


I think they will play an up-down game now that the cats outta the bag.

1440
sold = 54,000,000