Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 01/01/08 - 14/04/08

Oil for electric power headed to Iraq

The Iraqi electricity minister said 36 trucks filled with oil used to generate electricity are en route from Kuwait, and more is expected in the coming days.

Ministers need further shipments to provide power to production units because of a lack of supply in Iraq, al-Sumaria television reported Friday.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Electricity said the country faced increased demand since Turkey stopped providing electricity to Iraq. He also cited a lack of internal refinery capacity as a source of curbed electrical power.

The lack of electricity also impacted production of oil in fields in northern Iraq.

The spokesman added oil refinement could not proceed without the adequate oil quantities.

International Security - Emerging Threats - Briefing - UPI.com

Baghdad now responsible for size of security force

Buried in the latest Defence Department quarterly report on Iraq is the disclosure that the Baghdad government is now responsible for setting the size of its security forces, and that it has authorised a level of 550,000 military and police forces - an increase of more than 40 per cent over the level that the US-led coalition reported just three months ago.

"While previous reports have listed numbers authorised by the Coalition and provided estimates of numbers on the payroll, the GoI (Government of Iraq) is now responsible for determining requirements and counting personnel," the Pentagon reported in December. "Therefore, reporting will now reflect GoI statistics."

The new numbers show a jump of more than 150,000 from three months ago, when the coalition put the previously authorised number of military and police at 389,000. According to the Pentagon report, that jump under the Iraqi statistics mainly represents police who "have never been trained, as rapid hiring over the past two years outstripped academy training capacity."

Not accurate

The Pentagon noted that the Interior Ministry, which is in charge of the police force, not only has recruiting and hiring problems but also does not know "how many of the approximately 376,346 employees on the payroll are regularly reporting for duty."

Unlike the coalition, the Iraqi defence and interior ministries use "the number of authorised and assigned personnel" rather than the number trained as a measure of development of their security forces, the Pentagon reported. At the same time, the Pentagon warned that the two Iraqi ministries "do not accurately track which of those personnel who have been trained as part of US-funded programmes are still on the force and which are no longer on the force as a result of being killed in action or leaving for other reasons."

Desertion

For example, the Pentagon reports that the annual attrition rate for the approximately 255,000-person Iraqi Police Service is running at about 17 per cent. The Iraqi army, with an authorised ground force of about 186,000, also had an attrition rate of 17 per cent, "in part due to a casualty rate two to three times higher than that of Coalition forces," according to the Pentagon report. But it notes that on average about 2,000 soldiers each week go absent without official leave, and that this year about 21,000 were dropped from the rolls for desertion or for going AWOL.

In the Ministry of Interior, "corruption and sectarian behaviour continue to be evident," the Pentagon concludes. However, internal investigations are "increasingly aggressive ... to uncover perpetrators and reduce their impact." Thirty brigadier generals have been arrested, fired or forced into retirement; "several thousand personnel fired, 700 of whom were fired based on criminal records information"; and 195 police "fired for militia activity and involvement in corruption."

The Pentagon expects the security forces to continue growing under the planning of the central government in Baghdad, reaching "between 601,000 and 646,000 by 2010." Police forces would reach near 350,000 and the military would expand to about 280,000, with 260,000 of those in the army.

Gulfnews: Baghdad now responsible for size of security force

Iraq's Economy Looking Up for a Change
IMF Predicts Good News for Iraq's Economy, but Growth Depends on Security
By HILARY BROWN
BAGHDAD, Jan. 19, 2008—


Iraqis received a rare piece of good news this week, when the International Monetary Fund predicted that the country would see an overall growth rate of 7 percent in the coming year.

The country will benefit from oil prices reaching record highs and the forecast that Iraq's own oil production would go up by 200,000 barrels a day, to a daily output of 2.2 million barrels, the IMF predicted.

The optimism is visible everywhere on the streets of Baghdad. The shops are full of produce and electronics and clothes and dry goods. People are out with their families, and they have a little money to spend.

"There's a big difference from last year," says Ali Shayal, who owns a men's clothing store in the up-market district of Corrada. "There's much more demand now from our customers."

Nearby Shayal's clothing store is the Mish-Misha juice bar, full of fresh fruit, equipped with high-speed blenders kept spanking clean, and doing a roaring trade. It's a family business that has expanded to three branches in Baghdad this year. The dream of the owners is to turn it into a chain all across Iraq.

"When it's safe outside, business is better," owner Ahmed Salah said with a smile.

As Salah suggests, security is the key to the brighter economic forecast here. Since June, violent attacks in the country have dropped 60 percent, according to Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq. This is the big dividend of the so-called "surge" of U.S. troops last spring -- 30,000 reinforcements deployed primarily on the streets of the capital.

American troops are now working closely with teams of disaffected former Sunni insurgents they call CLCs or Concerned Local Citizens, who are paid $300 a month to patrol their neighborhoods and tip off their new U.S. friends when they see something suspicious. The plan is eventually to train the CLCs for non-military jobs in mainstream civilian life.

One of the best measures of Iraq's economic performance may be the Baghdad Stock Exchange, a small, crowded room inside a heavily guarded three-story office block that looks like an off-track betting shop.

Investors stand behind a low barrier while share-prices are hand-written on big white boards with a magic marker. A simple buzzer signals the close of trading. When the exchange opened after the war, only 15 companies were traded. Now there are 94 and the market is about to go electronic, and exchange manager Taha Ahmed Salaam is full of optimism about his country's future.
"I believe there are many projects that can be carried out to improve development in the country," he said. "The terrorists did bad things here. You must fight them. I don't know how to use a gun but I can fight them from my position here as manager of the Stock Exchange."

Despite his claim of ignorance about firearms, at the end of his interview with ABC News he picked up a pistol along with his hat, ready to go home for the day. In Baghdad, a lot of peace-loving people pack heat.

But with the good news about Iraq's economy also came some bad news from the Government Accountability Office in Washington, which said that the Iraqi government had spent less than 5 percent of its own reconstruction budget by August last year. The rate of spending was even lower than the previous year, the GAO said, adding that the Iraqi government was failing to spend billions of dollars of its oil revenues to rebuild the country.

This is one reason for the high unemployment rate, which is currently estimated at 40 percent.

"Iraq has an appalling level of implementation," Robert Powell of the Economist Intelligence Unit said. "They have increasing oil revenues but they don't spend it because of bureaucracy and an acknowledged high level of corruption."

There are also chronic shortages of water in most of Iraq, and electricity is often only provided a few hours a day, both of which put severe limits on economic growth.

"The potential is jaw-dropping. The country could produce Saudi levels of production," Powell said, referring to Saudi Arabia's capacity of 8 million barrels a day. "But it's very difficult to set up a company when you have only six hours of electricity and the water is limited."

The country's water and electricity problems are a result of the government's failure to invest in its own infrastructure or to adequately protect its power stations from theft and sabotage.

But there are other problems standing in the way of growth for the Iraqi economy. The country has lost 2 million of its best educated people to emigration since the war, creating a severe shortage of skilled workers. Those who are left face the considerable challenge of carrying out construction projects in a highly dangerous environment.

Which takes you back to the question of security. Most of Iraq's 18 provinces are now relatively peaceful, with the exception of Diyala, northwest of Baghdad and now the scene of a major military operation by U.S. and Iraqi forces to drive out al Qaeda militants and confiscate their weapons and explosives. Some analysts predict that if Diyala is pacified, Iraq's violence may soon be reduced to a few isolated pockets.

That is not lost on a lot of Iraqis, including Wisam ali Kadhum, the young owner of a women's clothing shop in Corrada.

"Every month is getting better than the one before," he said as he carefully folded and stacked brightly colored blouses on his shelves. "Before, it was the other way round."


Iraq Ready for Boom -- Business, Not Bombs


Hello all. Have not had time to contribute of late, as schedule has changed big time. Interesting to note that this is from ABC, of all things. MSM can no longer deny the progress, much to their chagrin.

Well I sleep easier now

Originally Posted by flockstar

Well I sleep easier now

Glad I could help. And thanks for your contributions.

Sharp drop in dollar demand in daily auction

Demand for the dollar sharply dropped in the Iraqi Central Bank's auction on Sunday, registering at $23.460 million compared to $60.915 million on Thursday.

"The demand hit $9.260 million in cash and $14.200 million in money transfers outside the country, all covered by the bank at a stable exchange rate of 1,214 Iraqi dinars per dollar, unchanged for the fifth consecutive session," according to the central bank's daily bulletin which was received by Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI).

The 14 banks participating in the auction offered to sell $2.500 million, which the bank bought at an exchange rate of 1,212 Iraqi dinars per dollar.

Speaking to VOI, Ali al-Yasseri, an Iraqi trader, attributed the lower demand for the dollar to the recess in the local market over the last two days after the government imposed a curfew in Baghdad and other cities ahead of the observance of a Shiite Muslim occasion.

The Iraqi Central Bank runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.

Sharp drop in dollar demand in daily auction | Iraq Updates

Iraq's central bank lessens interest rate by 1 point as of Feb

The Iraqi central bank is lowering the interest rate by one point from 20% to 19% as of next February, a bank source said on Sunday.

"The reduction was prompted by the retreat of inflation rates for the year 2007 to a lowest record in 17 years' time as inflation rates, according to consumer prices, registered 12% during December 2007, compared to 65% in December 2006," the source told Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI).

"This positive and encouraging trend was unprecedented in 17 years thanks to the central bank's monetary policies that aim to fight inflation and realize price stability as top priority," the source said.

He pointed out that such an improvement in the public price levels should have positive impact on standards of living and the Iraqi dinar's purchasing power provided that the state's expenditure would observe monetary controls.

"The (central) bank would continue to focus on assessing the course of financial policies and inflation rates," he said.

Iraq's central bank lessens interest rate by 1 point as of Feb. | Iraq Updates

Repairing Shuaiba refinery may take a week

Two Engineers at Shuaiba oil refinery in southern Iraq said on Thursday that repairing the refinery which was closed on Tuesday because of a large fire could take up to a week. They said that the fire destroyed the production units of liquefied petroleum gas and fuel in the refinery, as well as causing massive damages of pipelines.

One of the two engineers at the refinery, the second largest oil refinery in Iraq and located in the southern province of Basrah, said "we are working to restart the refinery within two days; otherwise, it will take another five days to do the necessary repairs, especially that some pipes were fused and need to be replaced." Meanwhile, the refinery of Baiji, the largest refinery in northern Iraq, was shut down on Wednesday after an interruption of electricity; engineers in it hope to resume operation on Thursday evening.

The Oil Ministry said the fire at Shuaiba resulted from the military American or British helicopters which were flying over the refinery and fired flame normally used to stave off a possible missile attack from the ground. But the South Oil Company, which runs oil installations in southern Iraq, said the fire resulted from an attack by a mortar shell.

According to the Ministry of Oil, Shuaiba compound can refine 160 thousand barrels per day of crude oil for the local market, but its current production of refined products range between 100 thousand and 120 thousand barrels a day.

Repairing Shuaiba refinery may take a week | Iraq Updates

Slight decline in ISX index

The Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISX) index saw a slight decline of 0.099% in Sunday's session compared to Thursday's session which closed at 35.315 points.

Shares of 26 joint-stock companies were traded on Sunday with a total number of 241 million shares at a value of more than 389 million Iraqi dinars (320,165 USD) through 161 contracts.

Non-Iraqi investors attended Sunday's ISX trading session by concluding 20 contracts in the banking, service, and industrial sectors with a total number of shares exceeding 36 million worth 65 million Iraqi dinars.

Companies in which non-Iraqis traded were the Commercial Bank, the Baghdad Bank, the Islamic Bank, the Middle East Bank, al-Warkaa Bank, the North Bank, Baghdad Company for Auto Service, the Oil Products and Goods Transport Company, the Carpet and Sheets Company, and the Chemical Industries Company.

Trading in shares of 11 banking institutions increases the rates of shares in three companies: the Iraqi National Bank (4.7%), the Commercial Bank (3.7%), and the Ashur International Bank (3.5%).

Declined were rates of shares of four companies: Babel Bank (4.1%), al-Warkaa Bank (3.2%), the North Bank (2.6%), and the Middle East Bank (1.8%), while the banking index closed at 36.615 points, 0.095% less than the previous session.

The trading in nine industrial companies' shares increased the rates of only the Carpets & Sheets Company's shares by 3.3% and brought down the rates of shares of three companies: The Cardboard Company (6.4%), the Foodstuff Industries Company (4.5%) and the Electronic Industries Company (3.5%).

The industrial index closed at 11.175 points, 0.098% less than the previous session.

In a nutshell trading was active on shares of 26 out of a total 94 registered companies. Rates of shares of 14 companies went up, those of 11 companies went down, while eight companies retained their rates.

Slight decline in ISX index | Iraq Updates

'Sharp decline in smuggled Iranian weapons' in Iraq

The US military said on Sunday there had been a dramatic drop in the number of Iranian weapons being smuggled into Iraq but no let-up in Tehran's training and financing of Iraqi militias.

Washington has accused Tehran of supplying Shiite militias with sophisticated weapons, including deadly armour-piercing bombs known as explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), to attack American troops. Tehran denies the charge.

"We do believe that the number of signature weapons that have come from Iran ... are down dramatically. We do not think levels of training have been reduced at all. We don't believe levels of financing are reduced," US military spokesman Rear Admiral Greg Smith told reporters in Baghdad.

His comments come at a time of heightened tensions between Iran and the United States after Washington said its warships were threatened by Iranian craft in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month. The two countries are already at odds over Iran's determination to pursue a nuclear programme.

US officials had softened their rhetoric towards Iran in recent weeks, partly attributing a sharp drop in violence in Iraq since June to Iran stemming the flow of smuggled weapons. US forces also released a number of Iranian detainees.

Smith said an upswing in the number of EFP attacks reported in the first two weeks of January had been followed by a dip in the third week of the month.

"There was an increase, we don't know why precisely ... and now they have returned to normal levels," he said. "It is uncertain what is happening inside Iran to lead to that occurrence."

Iraqi government spokesman Ali Al Dabbagh said no new date had been set for the US-Iran meeting to quell violence in Iraq.

'Sharp decline in smuggled Iranian weapons' in Iraq | Iraq Updates