Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 01/01/08 - 14/04/08

Will an extended Turkish offensive further destabilize Iraq?

ISTANBUL, Turkey - Rebuffing American calls for a swift withdrawal of its forces from northern Iraq, the one part of the country at relative peace, Turkey is refusing to place a timetable on its campaign aimed at Kurdish militants.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates left Ankara Thursday with few public promises that Turkey would limit its offensive, now entering its second week, which is using intelligence from the United States to target the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. Turkish air and artillery strikes continued Thursday as ground forces sought to destroy bases in the remote, mountainous region of Iraq.

This US support has sparked fury among Washington's main allies in Iraq and, analysts say, an extended period of fighting risks destabilizing the semiautonomous Kurdish region by drawing Iraqi Kurdish forces into the fight against Turkey – while any overt Iraqi support for the PKK could prompt a far more serious Turkish escalation.

"We're entering a tense phase in the US-Turkey relationship," says Bulent Aliriza, director of the Turkey Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "The word has come back to Washington that this has really strained the US-Iraqi Kurdish relationship to its limits [and] has to end, or we're in trouble."

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a Kurd, warned that the "crisis is very sensitive" for Iraq. "We told [Turkey] that if these operations are not suspended, it would destabilize the whole region," he told the Monitor. "We told them this is the 25th time [Turkish forces] have entered Iraq, but have achieved no results … the situation is very dangerous."

Over the past few days, many Iraqi Kurds have held street protests against the Turkish offensive. "We feel the Turkish aggression is a veiled threat to us not to implement Article 140 or to postpone it," says demonstration organizer Aziz Omar, referring to the article of the Iraqi Constitution that calls for a referendum on the status of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. Kurds, who have a significant presence in the ethnically and religiously mixed city, insist it should be part of their semiautonomous region. Kirkuk is also home to Turkmen, who have ethnic and historic ties to Turkey. They oppose Article 140.

The task of balancing the competing needs of Turkey and the US, two critical allies, has fallen to Mr. Gates, who asked Turkey to end its incursion within days or "a week or two, not months." During meetings with senior Turkish officials Thursday, he also called for political and economic measures to ease the plight of Turkey's ethnic Kurds, who form the ranks of the estimated 3,000 PKK militants based in northern Iraq.

But Turkey made clear that military considerations trump all else. "Turkey will remain in northern Iraq as long as necessary," Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said after meeting Gates. "There is no need for us to stay there after we finish the terrorist infrastructure.… We have no intention to interfere in [Iraq's] domestic politics, no intention to occupy any area."

Gates stopped short of threatening Turkey, noting common interests in fighting the PKK, which the US and the European Union officially list as a terrorist group.

At a press conference in Washington Thursday, President Bush said Turkey should pullout "as quickly as possible" from Iraq. "The Turks, the Americans, and the Iraqis – including the Iraqi Kurds – have a common enemy in the PKK," he said, adding that he agreed with Gates that the incursion "must be limited."

"The Turks need to move, move quickly, achieve their objectives and get out," Mr. Bush said.

While in Turkey, Gates added that, "It should be clear that military action alone will not end this terrorist threat."

The Turkish military says that 27 have died so far and that it killed more than 230 PKK militants. News reports quote a PKK spokesman claiming the group has lost only a handful of guerrillas and has stalled the Turkish offensive, the 25th cross-border assault since 1984 aimed at uprooting the PKK.

"Short term is a relative notion," Turkey's military chief, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, said on a broadcast interview. "Sometimes it is a day, sometimes it is a year. We have been struggling against terrorism for 24 years. That is why our struggle against terrorism will continue."

An initial US expectation that Turkey's operation might last only a week has eroded, says Mr. Aliriza. "Of course there is mission creep, you always want to take over the next hill, and there's always another target – and now you've lost 24 [Turkish soldiers] in there, maybe more," he says. "It's a major operation, but not a decisive one. At some stage, the troops are going to have to withdraw, having done some damage, but that doesn't mean the PKK will have been eradicated."

Gates's call for political and economic steps to undermine support for the PKK among Turkey's ethnic Kurds, discussed for years in Turkey but only haphazardly applied, "is just as important as his message about keeping this short," says Aliriza.

But in the current climate of violence, Turkish officials say that is not the top priority. "This is not a political issue – this is an issue of terrorism, and no one is going to negotiate with terrorists," says Nabi Sensoy, Turkey's ambassador to the US. "Let's not lose sight of the fact that not only are the PKK terrorists, but they are not representative of the Turkish citizens of Kurdish origin – who, by the way, have representatives in the Turkish parliament."

The incursion is designed to be "limited in the nature of its scope, size, and duration…. But it will totally depend on the circumstances on the ground," says Ambassador Sensoy.

US defense officials say the flow of intelligence to Turkey about PKK moves could be affected by an extended operation. But reports of US-Turkey tension are exaggerated, says Sensoy: "We have been for very long with the United States in the fight against terrorism…. Bush himself has called the PKK an enemy of the US, even as it is the enemy of Turkey and of Iraq."

Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Cemil Cicek sought to ease US and Iraqi fears. "No one should be concerned. We will leave Iraq as soon as we are done," he told Today's Zaman, an English-language newspaper. And our mission will be accomplished when the terrorist camps in northern Iraq are destroyed."

But such an aim has never been achieved before, even with the help of Iraqi Kurdish factions that collaborated with Turkey by hunting down the PKK in the 1990s.

"We have fought the PKK in the past and we have learned that we cannot solve this problem by force," says Muhammad Mohsen, a commander of the Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga forces in Amadiyah district, adjacent to the fighting. He met behind closed doors with US officials over the weekend, a map spread out between them, but denied providing intelligence on the PKK.

"We will not be part of this war," says Mr. Mohsen, adding his suspicions that the US help for Turkey is aimed at Iran. "We understand that the US wants friends to take care of the Iran issue. But we will not accept that."

The US has called for caution since last fall, when Turkish public opinion for retaliatory strikes into northern Iraq boiled over after a spate of PKK attacks. Many Turks blame US forces for permitting the PKK to stage such attacks and for allowing Iraqi Kurds to provide safety in northern Iraq where they can attack Turkey, a NATO ally.

Will an extended Turkish offensive further destabilize Iraq? | csmonitor.com

'Chemical Ali' execution approved
Iraq's presidency council has approved the execution of Ali Hassan al-Majid, a cousin and senior official under executed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, a senior Iraqi official says.

Iraq's presidency council has approved the execution of Ali Hassan al-Majid, a cousin and senior official under executed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, a senior Iraqi official says.

Al-Majid was nicknamed "Chemical Ali" for overseeing the gassing of thousands of Iraqi Kurds during the Operation Anfal campaign in 1988.
The official said no date has been fixed for the execution.

Al-Majid was convicted, along with two others, on charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in June.

Legal differences

Legal battles in Iraq prevented the death sentence being carried by October, the deadline stipulated by Iraqi law.

The presidency council, which comprises Jalal Talabani, Iraq's president, and his two deputies, Tareq al-Hashemi and Adel Abdul-Mahdi, had said that it had the exclusive authority to sanction the executions.

The presidential order means that al-Majid must be executed within the next 30 days.

Sultan Hashim al-Tai, a former defence minister under Saddam, and Hussein Rashid al-Tikriti, deputy chief of operations in the armed forces, were also sentenced to death during the Anfal trial.

A council source said no decision had been made on whether to execute those individuals.

Al-Hashemi has said he does not believe army officers should be punished for following orders.

Sustained attacks

It is estimated that 182,000 Kurds were killed in gas and bomb attacks during the Anfal campaign, while 4,000 villages were destroyed.

Throughout his trial, al-Majid was unrepentant about ordering the attacks.
"I am the one who gave orders to the army to demolish villages and relocate the villagers ... I am not defending myself. I am not apologising. I did not make a mistake," he said.

Human Rights Watch, a New York based rights organisation, questioned whether the defendants in the Anfal trial had received a fair hearing.

Al-Majid was also accused of overseeing the gassing of 5,000 Kurds in the town of Halabja, although this was not part of the Anfal operation.

'Chemical Ali' execution approved | Iraq Updates

Iraq trip to be major foreign policy success for Iran leader

The ultimate US foe Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is set to land in Baghdad on Sunday under the watchful eyes of American forces, Iraqi officials told Gulf News.

Ahmadinejad will be the first Iranian president to step foot in Iraq on a trip many see as symbolic of Tehran's new influence and which aims to boost business and other ties with a country with which Iran fought an eight-year war in the 1980s.

According to Iraqi security officials, the complex security arrangements for the visit are no less important than its political aspects.

"It is an unprecedented and complex scene because President Ahmadinejad will be in the midst of thousands of American troops and warplanes," Rasheed Al Hussaini, an officer in the Iraqi Interior Ministry, told Gulf News.

Ahmadinejad's plane will land at Baghdad International Airport, an area exclusively controlled and monitored by American forces, he said.
The road from the airport to his place of residence is a highway also crowded with American military vehicles.

Certainly he will glimpse military uniforms of the US, a country which is threatening Iran with war or devastating air strikes over a nuclear standoff.

The significance of the trip, say analysts and diplomats, is that it is happening despite Washington's accusation that Tehran supplies weapons to militias that are killing US troops in the war-torn country.

In Tehran, Ahmadinejad declared yesterday that Iran was the world's "number one" power.

"Today the name of Iran means a firm punch in the teeth of the powerful and it puts them in their place," Ahmadinejad said in a speech to families who lost loved ones in the Iran-Iraq war.

Iraq trip to be major foreign policy success for Iran leader | Iraq Updates

Ratifying the third phase of the Japanese loan agreement

Presidency of the Republic has ratified the third phase of the Japanese loan agreement, amounting to 57 billion and 716 million yens for the development of water in Basrah and electricity in Kurdistan.

A statement issued by the Office of the Vice President, Tariq Al-Hashimi, said that the Council identified the projects to be financed by the loan: a project to develop water in Basrah and the electricity sector in Kurdistan region. The Presidency Council endorsed earlier the first and second phases of the loan; the first phase included four projects and they are: rehabilitating the fertilizer plant at Khor Al-Zubair, reconstructing the facilities of exporting crude oil, developing the engineering services of Basrah refinery, in addition to reconstructing the electricity sector, while the second phase also included four projects, namely: rehabilitating the port sector, the irrigation sector, the power station at Al-Musayyib, the Bridge Project at Samawah and building roads.

Ratifying the third phase of the Japanese loan agreement | Iraq Updates

Ambassador Pleased with Iran-Iraq Talks

Iran's Ambassador to Iraq Hasan Kazemi Qomi said on Thursday that the preliminary talks between an Iranian delegation in Baghdad has achieved satisfactory progress.

Speaking to IRNA, Kazemi Qomi added that Iranian delegation comprising deputy ministers of foreign affairs, power, road and transport, and oil has held different meetings with Iraqi officials on Thursday, and that the negotiations will continue next days.

He added that the delegation has held talks with Iraqi foreign minister, deputy prime minister and ministers of energy, planning and finance as well as officials of TBI Bank in the morning.

Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh, for his part, expressed pleasure with the upcoming visit by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to his country, hoping that the visit will benefit both nations.

Saleh further commented on the expansion of cooperation in economy, banking, electricity, construction, industry, customs and standard sectors.
The Iranian delegation will also hold talks with a number of Iraqi political and economic officials in coming days, he added.

PUKmedia :: English - Ambassador Pleased with Iran-Iraq Talks

Oil Surpasses $103 for First Time

Oil prices surpassed $103 a barrel for the first time Friday as persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar and the prospect of lower interest rates attracted fresh money to the oil market.

Prices were supported by comments Thursday from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the American economy is not immediately threatened with stagflation, a combination of economic weakness and rising inflation.

Investors chose to see the comments as confirmation of their beliefs that the Fed will continue cutting interest rates to try to shore up the economy.

Lower U.S. interest rates tend to weaken the dollar, and crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar.

"Due to the weakening dollar and the rising fear of inflation, investors have put money into commodities, oil included," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

"Commodities, as tangible assets, do not face as much inflationary threat as opposed to holding a currency," Shum said. "Even though the value of money is changing, the asset continues to have an intrinsic value."

Light, sweet crude for April delivery jumped to a new trading record of $103.05 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange before slipping back to $102.92 a barrel, up 33 cents.

On Thursday, the contract jumped $2.95 to settle at a record $102.59 a barrel.

Shum warned that a price bubble was emerging in the crude futures market as investors ignored market fundamentals that have shown continuous increases in U.S. crude supply while several recent forecasters have lowered oil demand growth predictions for this year due to the slowing economy.

"We've seen seven straight weeks of builds in crude oil inventories. The oil market fundamentals are softening and yet we see record highs being set, day in and day out," Shum said.

Shum warned of the possibility of a sharp correction at some point, though unlikely in the near term.

"Right now, there's a lot of trading based on emotion — emotions are high and that could keep crude oil at elevated levels, but the market faces the risk of a price collapse."

Crude prices are within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. A $38 barrel of oil then would be worth $97 to more than $104 today, depending on the how the adjustment is calculated. A direct comparison with daily Nymex prices is difficult because historical data, gathered before the crude futures contract was created in 1983, are based on average monthly prices posted by oil producers.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil dropped 0.82 cent to $2.8538 a gallon while natural gas futures added 0.2 cent to $9.445 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude futures rose 1 cent to $100.91 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

PUKmedia :: English - Oil Surpasses $103 for First Time

Turkish Ground Offensive in N. Iraq is Over: NTV

Turkey's major land offensive against Kurdish PKK rebels in northern Iraq has ended, the private broadcaster NTV said on Friday.

NTV gave no source for its information. Officials were not immediately available to comment on the report.

Turkey sent thousands of troops into remote, mountainous northern Iraq on February 21 to crush rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) who have been using the region as a base from which to stage attacks on Turkish territory.

Turkey's political and military leaders had said the operation would continue for as long as necessary but have come under pressure from the United States, their NATO ally, to keep the campaign as short and carefully targeted as possible.

On Thursday, U.S. President George W. Bush urged Turkey to end the land offensive swiftly.

Washington, like Ankara, brands the PKK a terrorist organization, and has been supplying intelligence to the Turkish military on the PKK in Iraq. But it fears that a prolonged campaign could stoke regional instability.

Turkey's military says it has killed 237 rebels in the eight-day ground offensive and suffered the loss of 24 soldiers. The PKK claims to have killed more than 100 Turkish troops but has not given a figure for rebel casualties.

PUKmedia :: English - Turkish Ground Offensive in N. Iraq is Over: NTV

Turkey Pulls out Its Troops from Nerwa and Rekan Border Areas

A source on condition of anonymity exclusively stated to PUKmedia that the Turkish Army started to withdrew from Nerwa and Rekan border areas in Amedi District, Duhok Province.

On the other hand, the Turkish warplanes hovered on Nerwa and Rekan areas, without shelling any places.

PUKmedia :: English - Turkey Pulls out Its Troops from Nerwa and Rekan Border Areas

KRG ready to settle Turkey-PKK problem – official

Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is ready to help settle Turkey's problem with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) through dialogue in order to reach political solutions, a Kurdish official said on Friday.

"We are following up the reported cessation by Turkey of all military operations in northern Iraq. It is, however, premature to comment on it but we welcome any step in the direction of Turkey's withdrawal of troops from the KRG," Falah Mustafa, the official in charge of foreign relations in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, told Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI) on Friday.

A Turkish satellite channel said on Friday that Turkey stopped its military incursions into northern Iraq.

A source in the border guards in the KRG said he had no information about the cessation of military operations in the KRG territories. "It is better for Turkey to withdraw from our lands because its incursion would further complicate matters," he said.

"The Turkish forces on Friday morning pounded the areas of Nirewrican in Duhuk province and the two banks of the river al-Zab on the Iraqi-Turkish borders," the source, who declined to have his name mentioned, told VOI.

The Turkish army had announced on Thursday the commencement of a ground operation inside Iraqi territories to track down PKK fighters. The Turkish forces used artillery and aircraft to back up its ground campaign, destroying bridges and infrastructure in the province amidst condemnation by the Iraqi and Kurdistan governments.

The Ankara government had obtained a thumbs-up from the Turkish parliament to push deep into Iraqi territories to track down members of the PKK, or Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan in Kurdish, which is outlawed in Turkey.

Duhuk lies 50 km south of the Iraqi-Turkish borders and 460 km north of the Iraqi capital Baghdad.

Aswat Aliraq

Telecom CEO calls for private sector to play more influential role in economic development

At an Iraq Defence, Security & Communications Summit held in Dubai 16-17 February

Guest speaker, Ali AL Dawhi, CEO of Zain in Iraq, called for the Iraqi and US governments to enable the private sector to play a leading, stronger and more influential role in the areas where economic development has been held back.

Citing the mobile telecommunications business as a private sector success case, Al Dahwi commented, “Look at what we have managed to achieve! Under very challenging circumstances, our company alone contributes to the Iraqi economy around $264 million annually in salaries, where we directly employ more than 2,500 people and upwards of 50,000 other individuals indirectly. This is directly contributing to the financial welfare of over 250,000 Iraqis.”

Al Dahwi went on to propose initiatives needed for sustainable economic growth and progress such as the creation of a Council for Economic Development that would act independently from the government whilst at the same time continuing to support HE the Prime Minister, Nouri Al Maliki. He also proposed that much needed eGovernment systems would accelerate growth and help eliminate corruption which is at the heart underdevelopment and insecurity.

Al Dahwi went on, “The telecoms industry in Iraq is ready and waiting to be invited to take a leading role across those areas where their expertise and skills can make a real and rapid impact on the country’s development. Zain has already invested considerable sums putting in place 10,000 kilometers of transmission lines using over 2,000 mobile sites. We will continue to invest in the necessary technologies needed to re-vitalize the economy. However, we need to be reassured that the Iraqi and US Governments will support private enterprise in leading development programs.”

On the matter of security, he contested that true and enduring security will only be realized through private sector development and the return of basic utilities such as electricity and water.

In closing, Al Dahwi sent a clear message to Iraqi expatriate businessman, challenging them to return to Iraq with their expertise and knowledge in order to help realize the vision of a strong and successful Iraq.

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