Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 03/11/07 - 31/12/07

Recognising success on the streets of Iraq

Central to Gordon Brown's strategy on becoming Prime Minister was to distance himself from the policies of his predecessor, including, naturally, the war in Iraq.

This was achieved with remarkable ease. In Washington he was brusque with President Bush, where Tony Blair was chummy. He announced long-scheduled troop withdrawals as if they were his own principled interventions.

David Cameron, meanwhile, is in no hurry to draw attention back to Iraq. His predecessor, Michael Howard, embarrassed himself with an opportunistic U-turn. Only the Liberal Democrats have a consistent line on the war - unstinting opposition. But they know that to continue beating that drum gives the impression that they are still fighting the last election instead of planning for the next one.

So the Iraq debate has fallen silent. That is extraordinary, not just because Allied forces are still risking their lives to safeguard a fledgling democracy, but because there are signs they are having some success.

That is, of course, a relative concept. But there is evidence that unfettered violence is subsiding and fragile stability emerging. Last month saw the lowest death toll in 18 months. In Baghdad, monthly civilian casualties between May and October fell from 1,070 to 317, still too many, but part of an encouraging trend. Iraqis are beginning cautiously to wonder whether, thanks to US General Petraeus's military 'surge', the tide might have turned.

In the US, this subtle shift has had an impact on the political debate. Some Democrats have softened their anti-war rhetoric, in case there are real grounds for optimism. But in Britain there is only the collective conspiracy in all parties to portray Iraq as Tony Blair's war, an event in the past on which judgment is best left to historians.

That silence is dishonest and irresponsible. Whatever the arguments around starting the war, Britain has enduring responsibilities to Iraq. Pessimists say that al-Qaeda, the Sunni insurgency and Shia militias are simply regrouping. But an equally credible interpretation of events on the ground is that democracy has a chance, and that its best hope is the continued, unstinting support for the government - military, financial and diplomatic - provided by Britain and America.

Recognising success on the streets of Iraq | Leaders | The Observer

Eerily quiet on the News front today.

Not much published - not sure if that's a good thing or bad.

Firms call for long-term investments in Iraq

MANAMA: Companies interested in rebuilding Iraq are upset with the low turnout at the Gulf Iraq Expo (GIX).

The GIX at Bahrain International Exhibition Centre has only been a partial success due to low turnout with a number of infrastructure exhibitors dissatisfied with the event.

Their main grievance is alleged lack of international commitment that has led to a number of companies attending the expo seeing little in serious investment and not enough firms are interested in conducting business.
"Iraq is in need of trillions of dollars to pursue the rebuilding and development of infrastructure," an Iraqi official told the GDN.

"Americans have committed $50 million a year to pursue the rebuilding of our infrastructure and so far this year they have spent $30m to $40m on setting up roads, residential blocks and power stations in Iraq."

"Iraq is in need of more than 3m residential homes and approximately 6,000mw of power.

"The event here today has a number of big companies but the problem that we have witnessed is the fact that decision-makers from the Iraqi ministries have not shown up, meaning that all the large projects are not available to be propagated."

A representative from the Iraq-based infrastructure firm Al Qasswara Group said that the exhibition has amounted to very little in terms of actual deals. So far the only deal his company has negotiated has been the purchase of diggers from the Omani Chamber of Commerce.

"We have seen a number of our counterparts from Iraq but there hasn't been anyone that is interested in investing in long-term business," Al Qasswara Group chief executive Luqman Al Janaby said.

Merjal is another Iraq-based company that deals with contracting and infrastructure. They recently installed a 350mw gas power station in Kurkuk as well as a 500mw gas turbine power station in Arbil. The company is currently installing a 150 tonne per hour boiler in Baghdad.

"The expo has been good for networking with other companies but from a business point of view has not been very fruitful," Merjal Oil and Industry consultant adviser Kahtan H J Al Anbaki said.

"The fact that no decision-makers from Iraq have attended is an issue, but another problem is that the expo has been held over a weekend which has led to less local businessmen attending.

"The ideal set-up for this expo would have been a concise programme of tenders in Iraq resumed by direct dialogue to establish acquisitions between companies."

Al Bilal Group, another Iraqi-based infrastructure firm, has said the event has seen low interest and that companies that want to stabilise in Iraq now need to seek partnerships soon.

"The Iraqi government and the American investors are working in Iraq," Al Bilal Group vice-president Majid Ahmed said.

"The entire infrastructure needs to be renewed with a new system and design and there are a limitless number of opportunities for firms interested in investing in Iraq.

"Some people say that in the next two years these problems will begin to be addressed but realistically there is at least another five to six years work in Iraq until a global standard of infrastructure is even beginning to take shape."

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International Conference Ends With Pledges Of Support For Iraq Government

An international conference on Iraq's stability and security closed with two dozen nations and organizations pledging to support the U.S.- backed government in Baghdad and help take action against terrorism.

In a final declaration adopted Saturday by the conference, Iraq's neighbors and regional trading partners along with representatives from the E.U., the Group of Eight industrialized nations and the U.N. Security Council's permanent members also vowed to help prevent the passage of illegal arms into Iraq, and ensure tighter control of borders with Iraq.

The final statement called for further talks on issues of security, energy and displaced persons.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon cited the ethnic conflict in Iraq and a growing refugee problem.

"Iraq today is faced with an extremely complicated web of overlapping, ethnic conflicts," Ban said. "An increased level of displacement is already causing humanitarian crisis."

According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 2 million Iraqis have fled their country. They include 1.2 million in Syria, 750,000 in Jordan, 100,000 in Egypt, 54,000 in Iran, 40,000 in Lebanon and 10,000 in Turkey.

Ban said September and October saw the lowest number of killed civilians in Iraq. He urged the government to take advantage of this trend to "transform political and military development to a broader national reconciliation" between Iraq's ethnic groups.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki called for the withdrawal of coalition forces in Iraq.

"Withdrawal of all the forces from Iraq should take place according to a plan ... introduced by the government of Iraq, and based on that plan, the United Nations should make a decision to end the mission of the foreign forces," Mottaki said.

Mottaki also said security contracting companies, such as the U.S. firm Blackwater, were causing instability in Iraq. The company is accused of killing 17 Iraqi civilians in September.

Much of the meeting was overshadowed by Turkey's problem with Kurdish rebels, but the delegates made sure to also address the items on the original agenda.

In addition to their pledges, they backed the creation of a Baghdad-based " support mechanism" that would be charged with implementing decisions from the meeting and other such talks.

The group's next meeting on Iraq will be held in Kuwait. A Turkish Foreign Ministry official said the meeting would most likely be held in March.

Nasdaq 100 Flash Quotes

Factions vie for oil deals to finance activities

Political factions and militia groups now play a bigger role in the country’s oil industry, senior officials and experts said.

They said filing stations in major cities are under the control of militias suspected of using the proceeds to finance their operations and activities.

“Militia groups have imposed their control over filling stations,” said former Oil Minister Ibrahim Bahr al-Uloom.

Uloom said political parties were using their clout and presence in the government to snatch oil exporting deals from SOMO, the country’s oil exporting arm.

These factions, he said, were also involved in the purchase of fuel products the import of which is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

“Many of these deals are granted or better taken outside the legal framework under which SOMO works,” Uloom said.

Thamer Ghadhban, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s energy adviser, did not dispute Uloom’s remarks.

He said the government was aware of certain religious militia groups “imposing levies on fuel products sold to the public.”

Ghadhban said these groups were capable of doing so “by placing their loyalists at the head o of filling stations in major cities” including Baghdad.

However, he said, the level of corruption and smuggling was receding.

Azzaman in English

Iraq, With U.S. Support, Voids a Russian Oil Contract

Guided by American legal advisers, the Iraqi government has canceled a controversial development contract with the Russian company Lukoil for a vast oil field in Iraq’s southern desert, freeing it up for potential international investment in the future.

In response, Russian authorities have threatened to revoke a 2004 deal under the Paris Club of creditor nations to forgive $13 billion in Iraqi debt, a senior Iraqi official said.

The field, West Qurna, has estimated reserves of 11 billion barrels, the equivalent of the ********* proven oil reserves of Exxon Mobil, America’s largest oil company. Hussain al-Shahristani, the Iraqi oil minister, said in an interview that the field would be opened to new bidders, perhaps as early as next year.

The contract, which had been signed and later canceled by the Saddam Hussein government, had been in legal limbo since the American invasion. But the Kremlin remained hopeful it could be salvaged until this September, when Mr. Shahristani traveled to Moscow to inform officials there that the decision to cancel it was final, he said.

The Russian government, newly emboldened in international affairs by its expanding oil wealth, is still backing Lukoil’s claim and protesting what it considers selective enforcement of contracts in Iraq.

“We will defend our interests,” Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said in a telephone interview. “It is the government’s obligation to defend the interests of our companies in foreign countries.”

One Iraqi official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was discussing a confidential diplomatic exchange, described Russia’s response as, “If you do the deal, we can muster the political muscle to forgive the debt.”

West Qurna, mapped by Soviet geologists in the 1980s but mostly untapped, is one of a dozen or so supergiant oil fields in the world. They are known in the industry as “elephants,” fields so large they can tip the fortunes of companies or countries.

The field will produce one million barrels of oil a day after four to five years of development, according to both Iraqi oil officials and Lukoil; that is the approximate equivalent of the current output of the North Slope in Alaska.

In Lukoil’s 1997 production-sharing agreement, Saddam Hussein’s government awarded the company development rights to the 11 billion barrels of oil for a paltry signing bonus of $10 million. The deal, concluded when Iraq was seeking Russian support in a failed effort to lift United Nations sanctions, allotted 9.6 percent of the output to Lukoil.

The contract presented a quandary for the United States, which has been accused by some critics of invading Iraq for its oil. There is little evidence to date that the war effort has given American oil companies an inside track to Iraq’s reserves, and the Lukoil deal is the only one involving a major oil company to be reversed since the start of the war.

But as a cornerstone of its foreign policy, the United States has argued vigorously for countries to honor petroleum contracts. In that light, condoning the cancellation of the Lukoil contract could be seen in some quarters as evidence of a double standard.

“From the Russian government perspective, Iraq is seen as occupied and its administration directed by Washington, particularly when it comes to oil,” Vladimir I. Tikhomirov, chief economist at the Russian bank UralSib, said in a telephone interview.

“The Russians see the cancellation of their contract in Iraq as part of the U.S. drive to keep control over the major oil fields there,” he said.
The Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, has raised the issue with President Bush several times since the 2003 invasion. In an interview with the BBC in June 2003, Mr. Putin said Mr. Bush had gone as far as offering assurances.

“At our last meeting,” Mr. Putin said, “Bush directly and clearly said, ‘We do not have any goals of pressuring Russian companies out of Iraq and we are ready to create the conditions for working together there.’ I have no reason not to believe him.”

The legality of the Lukoil contract remains murky. It is Iraq’s stated policy, as laid out in a draft oil law now before Parliament, to honor contracts signed by the Saddam Hussein government. It is doing just that with contracts with Chinese, Vietnamese, Indonesian and Indian oil companies.

But the Iraqis note that it was the Saddam Hussein government that canceled the Lukoil contract. The government’s spokesman, Tariq Aziz, said at the time that the government believed the Russians were negotiating with the Americans to secure the contract in event of an invasion.

Early in the American occupation, the question arose whether the Hussein government’s decision was valid, said Michael Stinson, the former chief adviser to the Iraqi Oil Ministry. The answer was supplied by the principal American legal adviser to the ministry at the time, Robert Maguire, who Mr. Stinson said was then working for the Defense Department. Mr. Maguire drew on pre-Hussein-era law to justify the cancellation, Mr. Stinson said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/04/wo...ld&oref=slogin

Kurdish Rebels Release Turkish Soldiers

Kurdish rebels on Sunday released eight Turkish soldiers in northern Iraq two weeks after capturing them in an ambush inside Turkey, a PKK spokesman said.

The release came before Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets President Bush on Monday in Washington to discuss a possible cross-border offensive against the Kurdish rebel group.

A spokesman for the group holding the soldiers, the Kurdistan Workers' Party or PKK, told The Associated Press by telephone that the eight were released Sunday morning.

"The eight were freed this morning at 7:30 and handed over to Iraqi Kurdish officials in the mountains," said Abdul-Rahman Chadarchi, a PKK spokesman.

Iraqi Kurdish officials confirmed that the soldiers were handed over to them and were in good health, Turkey's private NTV television reported. The soldiers were expected to be sent to Turkey later Sunday.

The PKK is believed to have several mountain hideouts along the border between Turkey and the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq's north.
The soldiers were taken in an Oct. 21 ambush inside Turkish territory. The ambush also left 12 soldiers dead and has been a key factor in the mounting pressure on Turkey's government to stage a cross-border offensive to fight Kurdish rebels based in northern Iraq.

The release of the soldiers, however, was not expected to affect Turkish plans. Turkey's military and civilian leadership have repeatedly stressed their determination to stage an incursion if the U.S. or Iraq do not crack down on rebel hideouts in northern Iraq.

The ambush outraged an already frustrated Turkish public.

Demonstrations erupted across the country and opposition leaders called for an immediate strike against rebel bases in Iraq, de****e appeals for restraint from Iraq, the U.S. and European leaders.

The U.S. is pressing hard to keep Turkey from staging a cross-border offensive against the rebels. The U.S. designates the PKK as an international terrorist organization.

The ambush occurred four days after the Turkish Parliament authorized the government to deploy troops across the border in Iraq, amid growing anger in Turkey at perceived U.S. and Iraqi failure to live up to pledges to crack down on the PKK.

Turkey now says it wants to hear specifics about what Washington is prepared to do to counter the rebel group, or Turkey will launch an attack. Rebel attacks against Turkish positions during the last month have left 47 dead, including 35 soldiers, according to government and media reports.

Rebels periodically cross the border to stage attacks in their war for autonomy for Turkey's predominantly Kurdish southeast. Nearly 40,000 people have died in the conflict since the rebels launched their first armed attack against a military unit in 1984.

PUKmedia :: English - Kurdish Rebels Release Turkish Soldiers

Turkish Soldiers Release is the Outcome of Presidents Talabani and Barzani Efforts

Dr. Fuad Hussein, the Kurdistan’s Presidency Divan spokesman held a press conference today, where he highlighted the subject of releasing the Turkish soldiers by the PKK.

”Releasing the Turkish soldiers came after the efforts of the Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, Kurdistan Region President Masood Barzani and KRG Prime Minister”, Hussein said.

He added “we delivered the Turkish soldiers from the PKK today in the presence of KRG Minister of Interior Othman al-Haj Mahmood and the minister of Interior affairs Kareem Sinjari.”

Hussein denied that closing the offices of Democratic Charasar (Solution) Party in Kurdistan Region has any relation with the conference of Istanbul.

PUKmedia :: English - Turkish Soldiers Release is the Outcome of Presidents Talabani and Barzani Efforts

Terrorists Killed the Ministry of Finance Under-Secretary

A terrorist group killed today Mr. Qutaiba Badr el-Dean, the under-secretary of the ministry of finance, as a security source announced.

The group fired the under-secretary when he was going out of his house in Zayona neighborhood in Baghdad, the source added.

PUKmedia :: English - Terrorists Killed the Ministry of Finance Under-Secretary

Barham Salih lays Foundation Stone for the Rebuilding Project of Mutannabi Street

Sponsored by Deputy Prime Minister, Dr. Barham Ahmed Salih, and in the presence of the a large crowd of intellectuals and citizens laying the foundation stone of a project to Mutannabi Street started. Head of Baghdad municipality, Commander of imposing law security plan and a number Iraqi MPs concern the ceremony.

Deputy Prime Minister, conveyed greetings of the Prime Minister and the government's attention to the reconstruction of Mutannabi Street since it has a cultural and civilization heritage. He pointed out that present attendance in this street also aimed to commemorate the martyrs of culture and opinion, innocent Iraqis, who were killed by the terrorist attack last March.

Salih stressed on the Iraqi government's determination and seriousness on the reconstruction and building of what terrorism has destroyed, adding that terrorism will increase Iraqis determination and insistence on the construction and progress of Iraq.

PUKmedia :: English - Barham Salih lays Foundation Stone for the Rebuilding Project of Mutannabi Street