Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. before Febuary 2nd 2006

‘At a precarious juncture’
On Tuesday, Negroponte referred to the NIE in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "Iraq is at a precarious juncture. That means the situation could deteriorate, but there are prospects for increasing stability" that depend on the commitment of Iraqi government and political leaders to take steps to end Sunni-Shiite violence and "the willingness of Iraqi security forces to pursue extremist elements of all kinds," he said.

Congress, which requested the Iraq NIE last August, has pressured the intelligence community to complete it in time for consideration of Bush's new strategy. Intelligence officials have insisted that their best experts were working on the project at the same time they were meeting the demands of policymakers for current intelligence reports.

NIEs comprise input from across the community and are written by the National Intelligence Council.

© 2007 The Washington Post Company
WP: Report - Iraq at risk of further strife - washingtonpost.com Highlights - MSNBC.com

Originally Posted by snottynose

Top U.S. Iraq commander says has laid path to success By Andrew Gray
Thu Feb 1, 3:06 PM ET



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The top U.S. commander in Iraq defended his record on Thursday after scathing criticism in Congress, declaring he had laid the foundations for success and his strategy had made progress in a tough environment.

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"I do not believe that the current policy has failed," Gen. George Casey told the U.S. Senate's Armed Services Committee, meeting to consider his nomination to be U.S. Army chief of staff.

Tens of thousands of Iraqis and over 3,000 U.S. troops have died in Iraq since U.S.-led forces invaded in 2003 and toppled Saddam Hussein. American forces now are battling a stubborn insurgency amid widespread concerns about Iraq sliding into sectarian civil war.

Even President George W. Bush referred to the Iraq policy under Casey as a "maybe a slow failure" last month as he made his case for his new plan to send in an additional 21,000 troops.

Democratic Michigan Sen. Carl Levin (news, bio, voting record), the committee's chairman, asked Casey if he agreed with Bush's assessment. After a pause, the general replied: "I actually don't see it as a slow failure. I actually see it as slow progress."

Arizona Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), a front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, said he did not question Casey's patriotism and honor, but declared: "I question seriously the judgment that was employed in your execution of your responsibilities in Iraq."

He accused Casey of presenting "unrealistically rosy" assessments during his 2 1/2 years in Iraq and pursuing a strategy that used too few troops and relied too heavily on transferring responsibilities to Iraqi security forces.

Bush said last month he would send 21,500 additional U.S. troops to Iraq in an effort to get a grip on sectarian killings, insurgent attacks and other violence.

"It took us a long time to get where we are today," McCain said, describing the situation as "dire and deteriorating."

"We have paid a very heavy price in American blood and treasure," said McCain, a supporter of the war who backs Bush's plan to raise troop levels but questions whether his proposed increase will be sufficient.

'MY STRATEGY'

Casey said his strategy had made progress. He noted that Iraqi forces were responsible for security in three of the country's 18 provinces and said they were on track to be in charge nationwide by November.

"The strategy that I articulated here today is my strategy and I believe in it," Casey said.

"It may not have produced the results on the timelines that people expected or wanted. But I do believe that it has laid the foundation for our ultimate success in Iraq."

Several senators asked Casey if he truly supported Bush's plan, as the general requested two extra combat brigades for Baghdad, not the five the president wants. Casey said the three further brigades would allow more flexibility and be deployed over time so they could be stopped if they were not required.

That suggested at least a difference in emphasis from his designated successor, Gen. David Petraeus, who has asked for all the extra forces to be deployed as quickly as possible.

Under the new plan, U.S. forces will be more actively involved in bringing security to Baghdad.

Another Republican, Lindsey Graham (news, bio, voting record) of South Carolina, also expressed frustration at Casey's relatively upbeat assessment of Iraq. "It's almost like I'm hearing two different wars being described here," he said, contrasting Casey's testimony with recent statements by Petraeus and Adm. William Fallon, in line to become the top U.S. commander for the Middle East.

If confirmed, Casey would replace Gen. Peter Schoomaker as Army chief of staff. Schoomaker is retiring.

In acid remarks yesterday to Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the departing U.S. commander in Iraq, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) noted that "things have gotten markedly and progressively worse" during Casey's 2 1/2 -year tenure, "and the situation in Iraq can now best be described as dire and deteriorating. I regret that our window of opportunity to reverse momentum may be closing." Casey was appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee on his nomination to be Army chief of staff.
Although McCain supports the additional troop deployments, he has proposed a Senate resolution including stringent benchmarks to gauge the progress of the Iraqi government and military. McCain's resolution and other nonbinding, bipartisan proposals that would express varying degrees of disapproval of Bush's plan will be debated on the Senate floor next week.

Legislators have been equally critical of the intelligence community, repeatedly recalling that most of the key judgments in the October 2002 NIE on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction were wrong. That assessment concluded that Saddam Hussein had amassed chemical and biological weapons and was "reconstituting" his nuclear weapons program. It became the foundation of the Bush administration's case -- and congressional authorization -- for invading Iraq.

WP: Report - Iraq at risk of further strife - washingtonpost.com Highlights - MSNBC.com

Posted: Tuesday, January 30, 2007 8:41 AM by Hardball
Lt. Col. Rick Francona

Earlier this month, American forces in Iraq raided an Iranian facility in the Kurdish city of Irbil. Documents and computer files seized in that raid indicate that the facility was being used by members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in an operation to provide money and weapons to various Shia militia groups in Iraq. The weapons include advanced improvised explosive devices, mortars, newer generation rocket propelled grenades and shoulder-fired surface to air missiles. The advanced IED’s have already killed American troops, and mortars allegedly traceable to Iran have been used in attacks on Sunni areas of Baghdad.

Is the IRGC operating in Kurdish northern Iraq? Of course they are - they’ve been there since at least 1991. Soon after the Iraqi defeat in Kuwait, IRGC officers conducted clandestine and covert operations in the southern Shia area and the northern Kurdish area, and have been active there ever since.

The raid earlier this month on the Iranian facility causes problems for the Kurdish Regional Government and its autonomous region in northern Iraq. Since the Iranians claim that the facility was an Iranian consulate that had been in operation in the Kurdish enclave for years, it created a diplomatic incident. Having served in northern Iraq, including Irbil, and observing Iranian operations, I am skeptical that the facility was, in fact, a consulate. Since the raid, Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari, himself a Kurd, has demanded that the United States release the five “consular officials.”

The incident highlights the conflict the Kurds face. They are part of Iraq, but are not Arabs like 80 percent of the population. For almost the entire period that the Baath Party ruled Iraq, they were the target of a genocidal campaign aimed at eradicating their separate identity. During that time, the Kurds – at times out of necessity – developed a close relationship with the Iranians. When Saddam Hussein’s forces attacked the Kurdish village of Halabja with chemical weapons, when the Iraqi army killed thousands of Kurds in the Anfal campaign, the Iranians became the Kurds’ only ally. Iran provided refuge to hundreds of thousands of Kurds, creating a bond that is hard to break and hard to ignore. When no one else seemed to care about their plight, Iran opened its borders to them.

Now that Saddam is gone and the Kurds have established an autonomous region in the north, the Iranians are exploiting that past relationship. After the fall of Baghdad in 2003, the Iranians greatly expanded their presence in the Kurdish north as well as with their fellow Shia Muslims in the south.

The Iranian presence is not a good thing for the American efforts in Iraq. It also presents problems for the Kurds, easily America’s best allies among the Iraqis. The Kurds are balancing their close relationship with America against their close relationship with the Iranians. When more raids like the one in Irbil occur in the future – and they will, given new orders to U.S. forces to no longer “catch and release” Iranian operatives, but to capture and kill them – the Kurds will have to decide which relationship means more. You can’t have it both ways. Just like the Iraqi government of Nuri al-Maliki, they have to decide if they are with us or with the Iranians.
Hardblogger : The Kurds: Between Iraq and a hard place

The Iraq Dinar is set up in a very simple, almost crude fashion. The set up was a quick fix after the invasion, seeing that the banking sector in Iraq was about as developed as a model T. Without a modern bank system in place, the "crude and simple" was chosen as a workable interim model.

A Brief History of the Dinar
With Saddam's face plastered all over it, the old dinar had to go. The Saddam dinar also was of very low quality, and could be easily forged on a simple copy machine.

After the invasion, new bills were immediately ordered, but due to the enormous amount needed, some of the old Saddam dinars continued to be printed and circulated until the new ones arrived.

The new dinar bills started to arrive, and they brought with them all the modern safety features one would expect. A wide spread of denominations was chosen, both to make the daily handling easier, and to cover for value variations in it's exchange. Finally, a reasonable time period was granted in order to allow the citizens of Iraq to swap the old Saddam, and "Swiss" dinar in.

The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)
The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) was set up as an auction system, with the CBI sitting on the newly printed currency, auctioning older outdated dinars and other foreign currencies with Iraqi banks for new dinars. Now that the currency exchange has been completed, the CBI also sends nearly half of it's daily auction of dinars to foreign banks in Kuwait, Jordan and beyond.

If you go to the CBI official website you will see the daily auction, the currency is now primarily sold in exchange for US dollars. The CBI is slowly but surely acquiring US dollars to help back the worth of the dinar. Everyday the amount of dollars in it's vaults increases.

The exact number of dinars in print, in circulation or on hold at the CBI is exactly known. By doing some very simple steps, full control is achieved through:

Limit the amount a person can bring with him if he is leaving Iraq, to a very small amount (in this case, 100,000 dinar);
Knowing the exact amount sold to banks outside of Iraq.
Once you know the amount of dinars out there, viola, you have complete control over it's fate. The CBI simply sells more or less to hold the dinar in a position exactly where they want it to be.

Given this situation, the dinar will not strictly be pegged. It has been called 'pegged' by some, but in reality you will have some small fluctuations on the dinar value, which you have likely noticed if you have followed it over time. These fluctuations are a balancing act by the CBI.

Simply put, truly pegged currencies don't move from the currency it is pegged to.

This is the basic Iraqi dinar system. Now some may already be asking, that if the Dinar is endlessly sold, wouldn't it flood the market, making them worthless? No, because you have exchanged your US dollars for your dinar, which helps to back the dinar through the above explained CBI mechanism.

Now, this is a very temporary system. Interested readers will of course note that any currency that is not free flowing is a hindrance to full economic development. This fall, new Iraq investment laws are suppose to be passed by the elected Iraqi parliament, allowing international investment companies (read: Big Oil) to invest.

At this very moment, oil company survey and geological teams are crisscrossing the desert, testing grounds, staking claims and hopefully not giving each other a black eye. Again, this is not Iraq government, US government, US Government contractors, US armed forces, etc. running around, this is oil companies. The future mega investment in Iraq which will help drive the economy forward.
ISX-Data.com / The Unique Situation of the Iraqi Dinar

Iraq To Hold Draft Oil Law Public Seminar Feb 10-Official

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Iraq is planning to hold a public seminar on the country's controversial draft hydrocarbons law Feb. 10, a senior Iraqi oil official said Friday.

He said that the seminar would be attended by Deputy Prime Minister and head of Iraq's Energy Council Barhem Saleh, Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani, the Prime Minister's oil and gas adviser Thamer al-Ghadhban, various Iraqi officials and heads of parliamentary committees.

"The seminar will brief Iraqi officials and lawmakers on the draft law," the official, who is taking part in drafting the law, told Dow Jones Newswires.

It isn't known, however, whether Iraqi officials at the seminar will announce the completion of the long-awaited oil law.

The official said that there were still "minor issues" that needed to be settled before submitting the draft law to the Iraqi government for review. Parliament has to give final approval.

Outstanding issues, according to Iraqi officials drafting the law, include the proposal of a new federal petroleum council, headed by the Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki or his deputy and the ministers of oil, planning and finance, which would have the final say on contracts signed with oil companies.

This is causing prolonged ructions with the Kurdistan Regional Government, which runs northern Iraq and wants control of oil resources in its territory and a share of revenue.

The hydrocarbon law is seen as a crucial basis for international oil companies to begin discussions on investing in the country's under-exploited and run-down oil sector, and to generate much-needed reconstruction revenues.

According to a recent copy of the draft law, seen by Dow Jones Newswires, a new national oil company, or INOC, would control most of the country's most prized oilfields. The INOC would invite international oil companies to carry out investment in these fields to boost output and exports.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/N...nternational.na

A Question of Priorities
Some may ask if we shouldn't take care of the violence first. If Joe Everyman is building a house, is it relevant that his young children are fighting? The short answer is that 'Big Oil' is operating in many areas of the world where violence is the norm, not the exception.

By last June it was announced that no more printing of the dinar is necessary, meaning that we are most probably in the end part of the 'first stage', and are ready for the dinar revaluation. It would be an suicidal economically to leave the dinar in it's current low range, and let the oil companies come in 'on the cheap'. The dinar MUST have a much higher value at that time, otherwise Iraqi will be sold off for literally pennies, or dinars, on the dollar.

While the exact arrangement of the investment law is not yet settled, deals have already been made in how the oil revenue will be shared amongst the different regions and groups in Iraq. So things are moving forward.

It is not yet known if the revaluing of the dinar will be an overnight thing, with no previous announcements, or if it will be a gradual increase as necessary. It should be pointed out that the value of many oilfields in Iraq is also not fully known, because actual modern geological surveys have not been done for decades, if at all, but even with this lack of recent study, the known reserve in the ground rivals that of Saudi Arabia. It is hoped that in the next decade, Iraq will achieve the same oil output as its southern neighbor. Nobody can deny that the potential is there.

From the time the pumps start working, Iraqi society will start getting more and more benefits from the oil revenue. The finances will be available for roads, schools, the electric grid, social programs, new equipment, better computers, etc. These oil-funded infrastructure improvements will help drive manufacturing, and in turn, generate more jobs. Social unrest is handled with police and justice, but it must also be handled with economics. A prosperous nation is a happy nation.

Finally, Iraq has been blessed with something very few Arab countries have. Water. The agricultural heartland of Iraq have one of the highest potentials of big development. With proper development, it could be the Iraqi equivalent of the orchards and fields of California's central valley. This development and the potential of it will only strengthen the dinar now and in the future.

Exciting Times, a Positive Direction
For the dinar, these are exciting times, but even more interesting when it comes to investing in the Iraq stock exchange, because as the oil revenue will start making things possible in Iraq, the opportunities to be in on the ground floor on different investment start ups, will increase. Knowing this is a nation destined for great wealth it makes it even more exciting.

Saudi Arabia, Dubai, the Arab Emirates and Kuwait; are they rich and prosperous states? Of course they are. Why are they wealthy? Oil. Oil is money. Iraq is practically floating on oil. When do the oil companies want to start pumping? ... Yesterday.

Will Iraq continue to be a poor nation? Will the dinar continue to be at it's all time low?

ISX-Data.com / The Unique Situation of the Iraqi Dinar

Originally Posted by mab71

THIS IS BIG.

Voices of Iraq :: تجارة - الاردن-منظمةTrade-Jordan-World
كتب: nakr2004 في يوم الخميس, 01 فبراير, 2007 - 09:29 PM BTBooks : nakr2004 on Thursday, 01 February 2007 9:29 PM-BT
مؤتمر لبحث إنضمام دخول العراق في منظمة التجارة العالميةConference to discuss joining Iraq's entry in the World Trade Organization
من هادي الهاديBy Hadi Hadi
عمان-( أصوات العراق)Amman - (Voices of Iraq)
عقدت الوكالة الامريكية للتنمية الدولية بالتعاون مع غرفة التجارة والصناعة العراقية الامريكية وبرعاية شركة ميكروسوفت العالمية اليوم الخميس في العاصمة الاردنية عمان المؤتمر التحضيري الاول لعام 2007 والذي يبحث تهيئة الاوضاع لانضمام العراق لمنظمة التجارة العالمية.The United States Agency for International Development in cooperation with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry and sponsored by the Iraqi American company Microsoft world today, Thursday, in the Jordanian capital of Amman for the first preparatory conference in 2007, which examines the creation of conditions for Iraq to join the World Trade Organization.
وقال جريج هاول مسؤول التطوير الاقتصادي للقطاع الخاص العراقي في الوكالة الدولية للتنمية لوكالة أنباء ( أصوات العراق) المستقلة إن الاجتماع ركز على موضوع الاستثمار في العراق الذي صدق عليه البرلمان العراقي من خلال عرض الفرص الاستثمارية الجديدة وانضمام العراق لمنظمة التجارة العالمية كعضو بعد أن كان يحمل صفة المراقب في المنظمة العالمية.He said Gregg Howell official economic development of the private sector in the Iraqi Agency for International Development News Agency (Voices of Iraq) Independent that the meeting focused on the issue of investment in Iraq passed by the parliament during the presentation of the Iraqi new investment opportunities and join Iraq WTO member after it holds observer status in the WTO.وأضاف " في نهاية شباط القادم سيحضر العراق اول جلسة له مع منظمة التجارة العالمية بعد ان عقدنا عدة جلسات مع مسؤولين من الحكومة العراقية خاصة مكتب رئيس الوزراء والوزارات المعنية (التجارة والصناعة)وهو جزء من نشاط الوكالة الدولية للتنمية."He added, "At the end of February next Iraq will attend its first meeting with the World Trade Organization, after having held several meetings with officials of the Iraqi government, especially Prime Minister's Office and the ministries concerned with (Trade and Industry) and is part of the activity of the Agency for International Development."وأوضح"نعمل الان مع البنوك العراقية لممارسة الاساليب الحديثة في الحسابات المصرفية اضافة الى العمل من اجل وضع الضمانات بالنسبة للقروض المالية فضلاً عن العمل مع الجامعات العراقية في مختلف محافظات العراق لتدريبهم على اجراء الحسابات الدقيقة."He explained, "are now working with Iraqi banks to exercise the modern techniques in bank accounts in addition to the work to develop safeguards for financial loans, as well as work with universities in different Iraqi governorates of Iraq to be trained to conduct accurate calculations."
وأشار إلى أن أهداف عمل الوكالة مع الحكومة العراقية هو زيادة عدد الشركات الاستثمارية الموجودة وبالتالي خلق فرص عمل للعاطلين واحتوائهم ووضع حجر الاساس لخلق جو استثماري عائديته للحكومة العراقية من خلال تعريف الشركات بعدة فرص استثمارية وتسهيل قدوم هذه الشركات الى العراق.He pointed out that the objectives of the Agency's work with the Iraqi government is increasing the number of companies based investment and thus create jobs for the unemployed and their inclusion and laying the foundation stone for the creation of an atmosphere investment belonged to the Iraqi government through the definition of several investment opportunities and to facilitate the arrival of these companies to Iraq.
يذكر ان المؤتمر عقد بحضور ممثلين عن وزارة التجارة والخارجية الى جانب الشركات العراقية والمستثمرين الاجانب.It is noteworthy that the conference was held attended by representatives of the Ministry of Trade and Foreign Affairs to the Iraqi companies and foreign investors.
ح نH n
Translated version of http://www.aswataliraq.info/

This sounds to me that by the end of February we should be looking really good, and that by the 7th we should see some positive change, if Iraq is going to be allowed to sit with the WTO in observance status; isn't there a deadline around the 7th or the 10th? Please enlighten me.

US Troop Surge in Iraq to Pacify Baghdad to satisfy Oil MajorsFeb 02, 2007 - 04:48 AM

By: Mike_Whitney


“There is no solution. We’ve destroyed Iraq and we’ve destroyed the region, and Americans need to know this.”
Nir Rosen; interview with Amy Goodman, “Democracy Now”

Let’s assume for a moment, that Dick Cheney is the driving force behind the plan to surge in Iraq. Does anyone really believe that the vice president is genuinely concerned about the safety of the Iraqi people? And, yet, the media still insists that the purpose of the troop-increase is to improve security in Baghdad. Nothing could be further from the truth. The wellbeing of the Iraqi people has never been a factor in the administration’s decision-making and it isn’t now.



The real purpose of the surge is to pacify Baghdad in order to rebuild confidence among the supporters of the war. Bush needs to prove that he can restore security so the oil giants can make their move and begin developing the world’s second largest reserves of petroleum. In a matter of weeks, the al-Maliki government will pass the new hydrocarbon laws which will “issue tenders and signing contracts” to the major American oil companies. This will allow the looting of Iraq’s oil under internationally-recognized legal agreements. But if the fighting persists, it’ll all be for nothing. No one is going to invest capital to develop oil fields if the country is in the throes of a civil war. So Bush needs to put more boots on the ground and make one last-ditch effort to crush the resistance. And, he needs to do it fast.

It’s clearly an act of desperation and few believe he’ll be able to succeed. In fact, last week, a number of retired generals appeared before a senate sub-committee on Capital Hill and blasted the strategy as shortsighted and ill conceived. Marine General Joseph Hoar growled that, “The addition of 21,000 troops is too little too late…It won’t work… (The administration has shown) “a shocking failure to understand the social and political forces that influence events in the Middle East.”

Retired Generals’ William Odom and Barry McCaffrey were equally pessimistic. McCaffrey added dismissively that he believed the surge was a “fool’s errand”.

There’s no support among the members of the intelligence community either. In fact, Cheney didn’t even bother to have a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) drawn up because he knew the 16 US intelligence agencies would never rubber stamp his plans for escalation.

Nevertheless, Bush and Cheney are surging ahead despite the carping from the Top Brass, the objections of the congress, and the disapproval of the American people. They’ve shrugged off the opinions of everyone except a small cadre of neoconservatives who hale from the American Enterprise Institute. That appears to be Bush’s last bastion of support.

The administration is left with only two options; escalate or withdrawal. Iraq is a basket-case and getting worse by the day. The surge may be last chance to impose a political solution through military force. In another 6 months the wear and tear on the military will force the administration to negotiate some type of regional “grand bargain”, but that won’t happen until the army is hobbled and pushed to the breaking point.

For now, Bush can still hope that his measly 21,500 troops will achieve what 140,000 have been unable to for 3 and a half years.

But Bush’s expectations are unrealistic.Even his new field-marshal, General David Petraeus, has stated (in the Pentagon’s counterinsurgency manual which he authored) that it would take 4 times as many troops to pacify Baghdad than the military can provide. These figures are calculated to determine the appropriate ratio of occupation soldiers to residents. The ratio--according to Petraeus--should be 50 to 1. At the peak of the surge, when the US will have 30,000 troops in Baghdad, the ratio will be a 200 to 1. By Petraeus own standards, the plan is doomed from the get-go.

So why surge? Or is there, perhaps, another motive behind the troop increase?

Bush and Cheney have no intention of improving security; we know that.The surge is a cover for the impending crackdown on the Sunni neighborhoods which arethemainstrongholds of the Iraqi resistance. Bush is planning to "drain the sea in which they swim" as Mao noted. In a matter of weeks, tens of thousands of Sunnis will be forced to flee Baghdad to nearby Syria and Jordan. This is clear from recent military operations in the Haifa Street district near the Green Zone.

A few journalists have already begun to grasp the evil motive behind the surge. Just days ago, author Sidney Blumenthal offered these sobering observations in his article, “Washington’s Political Cleansing”:

“Bush’s surge, is a military plan that cannot produce its stated political outcome and will instead further unleash the forces he claims will be controlled. His offensive to subdue the Sunni insurgents is already accelerating the ethnic cleansing of Baghdad by the Shia militias, which, rather than being contained, are further empowered.”

Author Dahr Jamail has drawn the same conclusion in his latest article, “Southern Tribes are joining the Armed Resistance”:

“A political analyst in Baghdad told IPS that he believes occupation forces have been working in tandem with death squads. ‘We have been observing American and British occupation forces supporting those death squads all over Iraq, but we are still hoping for ‘reconciliation.’”

But “reconciliation” is off the table. That was clear when they hanged Saddam. The administration has broken off negotiations with the leaders of the resistance and they have no plans of returning to the bargaining table. “The New Way Forward” is Bush’s blueprint for a Shia-dominated Iraq; paving the way for ethnic cleansing and the (likely) rise of an Islamic regime.

The Ba’athist-led Sunnis resistance has fought fiercely, but they’ve lost in Iraq just as the US has lost. Author Nir Rosen makes this point out in a recent interview with Amy Goodman on Democracy Now:

“For Sunnis to ever imagine that the Ba’athists could be restored to power, or that the Americans really matter in Iraq anymore is naïve in the extreme… The Shias own Iraq now. Sunnis can never get it back. There’s nothing Americans can do about this.”

Rosen’s dark-forecast for Iraq is even grimmer than Blumenthal’s or Jamail’s. He says: “What you’re going to see in Iraq I think, in Baghdad especially, is a virtual genocide of the Sunnis. And the Americans are not going to be able to stop it….You’ll find a day when there are no Sunnis left in Baghdad.”

The question is whether Washington will assist in the slaughter or do something to try and stop it. We’ll know in the next few months.

We’ll also find out whether Bush plans to retain Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki or replace him with a strongman, like Ayad Allawi, who seems more eager to carry out Washington’s directives.

Either way, it makes no difference. The leadership in the Green Zone is irrelevant. Power in Baghdad is measured in terms of militias and neither leader controls a militia. That means they either have to ally themselves with Muqtada al-Sadr, Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, or the biggest militia of all, the US occupation. And, even then, their power will be limited to Baghdad; the surrounding cities have turned into city-states locally run by clan and tribal-based militias. Power is decentralized; no one militia controls Iraq. The prime minister is a meaningless figurehead who governs nothing and who will have no effect on the war’s outcome. Bush can appoint whoever he wants; it just doesn’t matter.

There’s bound to be a clash between the administration and the allies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt and the other Gulf states when they see that Bush is unable (or unwilling) keep his promise to protect the Sunnis in Baghdad. Many Sunnis feel a moral obligation to provide material support for their co-religionists. This poses a grave danger for the entire region as the possibility of a wider war becomes more and more probable. Iraq is likely to become the battleground for proxy armies struggling to decide the future of the Middle East.

Also, nearly 2 million Iraqi refugees have fled the country and an estimated 1.5 million have been displaced within Iraq. The magnitude of the disaster is incalculable. To even think that Iraq could be turned into a “victory” shows how completely disconnected from reality Bush really is. Iraq is shaping up to be the greatest human catastrophe of our time and it gets bigger by the day.

There’s no way to undo the damage we have done. A nation is not like a coffee cup, where you break the handle and glue it back together again. Iraqi society has been decimated; it cannot be fixed. Nir Rosen said it best:

“There is no solution. We’ve destroyed Iraq and we’ve destroyed the region, and Americans need to know this. This isn’t Rwanda where we can just sit back and watch the Hutus and Tutsies kill each other, and be ‘like wow, this is terrible should we do something?’ We destroyed Iraq. There was no civil war in Iraq until we got there. And there was no civil war until we took certain steps to pit Sunnis against Shias. And now, it is just too late. But, we need to know that we are responsible for what is happening in Iraq today. I don’t think Americans are aware of this. We’ve managed to make Saddam Hussein look good even to Shias at this point. And what we’ve managed to do is not only destabilize Iraq, but Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran. This is going to spread for decades, the region won’t recover from this, I think, for decades. And Americans are responsible.”
By Mike Whitney

US Troop Surge in Iraq to Pacify Baghdad to satisfy Oil Majors - Is it destined to Fail ? :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Free Website

That means this February, that just started, the 1st. We're okay.

The article is good news to me however Iraq has had "observer" status for a couple years now.

US Dept of State - Iraq Granted Observer Status at the World Trade Organization