Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/USD wave analysis for February 10, 2011 The GBP/USD pair has been trading in the range of a sloping correction structure and has formed a series of waves abc. At the same time, if the price of the currency pair manages to mark current triangular correction, the pound will have an opportunity to continue the uptrend and test again the before reached high near the 1.6275 level. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for February 10, 2011 4-hour timeframe Overview: The euro did not strengthen the downside signal, as a result it cancelled and a new buy signal with target level 1.3960 has formed. The formed buy signal is confirmed, but weak since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price entered the Ichimoku cloud and is still located near it. Thus, at the moment it is recommended to wait until the price passes the Ichimoku cloud, in this case the first target for the upside movement is 1.3981 – the second resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the third resistance level at 1.4101. Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.3630), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show possible sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways, which denotes a flat. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement, if it reverses down, this will indicate the beginning of correction movement. Trading recommendations: Currently it is recommended to wait until the price passes the Ichimoku cloud and trade up with the target to 1.3981. Stop loss should be placed below 1.3630. Long positions should be cut manually if the MACD reverses down. In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release. The chart annotation: Ichimoku indicator: Tenkan-sen — red line Kijun-Sen — blue line Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line Chinkou Span — green line Bollinger Bands indicator: 3 yellow lines MACD indicator: The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window. Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== EUR/USD wave analysis for February 10, 2011 Yesterday the EUR/USD pair continued to form an upside correction in relation to the downward section formed in the period between February 2nd and 7th; as a result the price managed to test the 1.3740 level. At the same time, inner wave structure of this correction became quite complex, which indicates indirectly a possibility of the euro to start trading in a horizontal corridor with amplitude of the rate change equal to 3-4 figures. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD wave analysis for February 11, 2011







Yesterday’s decline of the EUR/USD price by 1.5 figures did not define the future of the trend. At the same time, general wave situation after testing of the 1.3865 continues to gain characteristics of a horizontal triangle of the forming correction structure. If so, at the moment the euro is in the range of the wave of such triangle.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for February 11, 2011


4-hour timeframe




Overview:
The euro did not strengthen the downside signal and it is about to be cancelled, the price fixated below the Kijun-sen, which weakened the current buy signal even more, therefore a new sell signal is expected to be formed in the nearest time. The formed buy signal is confirmed, but weak since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment it is recommended to wait until the current signal strengthens or a new one is formed, in the first case the first target for the upside movement is 1.3981 – the second resistance level. If a new sell signal is formed the target will be the first support level at 1.3463. Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.3630), if the price fixates below this line (which has happened) it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways, which denotes a flat. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current downside movement.





Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the current signal strengthens or a new one is formed. A new sell signal is more likely to be formed. In this case the targets will be the closest support levels..



In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com







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CHF/JPY awaiting the break at 85.30. February 11, 2011






CHF/JPY

The CHF / JPY has started moving over a month and a half ago in a 300-point range and 85 Between 88 Above below. In fact the strong support level has held 85.30 on Twice in a row,
Since Currently the pair is poised very near the support level, is important to prepare for the scenario Where the pair Breached the support level at 85.30 and sell trigger. Enter into a sales position with a goal set in the third weekly support. around 83.03.On Its Way Down the pair is Expected to Confront STI 200-day moving average around 83.50, Which May slow down it's downwards Movement

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For February 14 to February 18, 2011




_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6361
Weekly - R2 = 1.6273
Weekly - R1 = 1.6139
Weekly Pivot = 1.6051
Weekly - S1 = 1.5917
Weekly - S2 = 1.5829
Weekly - S3 = 1.5695






_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6899
Monthly - R2 = 1.6477
Monthly - R1 = 1.6247
Monthly Pivot = 1.5825
Monthly - S1 = 1.5595
Monthly - S2 = 1.5173
Monthly - S3 = 1.4943





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Around the Monthly Pivot , February 14, 2011 (Daily Strategy)








EUR/USD

The Euro / Dollar pair, is sitting in front of the 1st weekly support at 1.3449 and 1.3439 Pivot monthly, we can say that if

the pair continued their downward trend, closing the trading day below these levels may continue to drop the 1.3350 and

1.3200, on the other hand, we note that the pair has touched
200-day moving average. Therefore, we will be in expectation.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com







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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for February 14, 2011




4-hour timeframe




Overview:
The euro has formed a new sell signal, upside movement did not develop, so at the moment downside movement is preferable. The

formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the

Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 1.3449 – the first support level. If this

level is passed the second target will be the second support level at 1.3349. Downside movement remains while the price is

below the Kijun-sen (1.3620), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span

is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show

the beginning of the downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is ascending, which indicates

current correction movement, thus it is recommended to resume trading down after it reverses down.







Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 1.3449 and further to 1.3349. Stop Loss should be placed above

1.3620. Enter the market with short positions after the MACD reverses down.

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/JPY wave analysis for February 14, 2011







During Friday trading the USD/JPY reached the 83.58 target level, corresponding with the 1.618 Fibo, between the 1st b (3rd

or c) and the 3rd b (3rd or c). Given this, we might suppose certain decline of the price in the range of the 4th wave in

this 3rd, before resumption of the growth in the direction of its target level located near the 84 figure level. At the same

time, overbought indicators probably imply a quite continuous forthcoming correction.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD wave analysis for February 14, 2011







On Friday the EUR/USD currency pair continued forming another round of declining of the euro. As a result of such downside

movement the pair reached the correction level 38.2%, calculated in accordance with the whole uptrend between January 10 and

February 2. At the same time the price has formed another series of waves abc, thus allowing a possibility that current

correction might take longer than expected and in the future have a shape of an inclined triangular structure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 15, 2011

The GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave B (colored magenta in the chart) within impulse wave C of the medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart). The targets of the correction are Fibonacci retracements of 131.62-134.31, and 132.54-134.31.
Supports:
- 133.28-22 = confluence area of .382 and .618 retracements, already hit (!)
- 132.97 = .50 ret
- 132.65 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-133.31-131.62, 131.62-134.31-133.24.
Resistances:
- 134.85-90 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 135.18 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is still up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is now above the zero therefore a retracement is needed - the cross below the zero is within 10-15 pips and the oversold area is 30-40 pips away from the current price.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for February 15, 2011

The GBP/CHF is rolling back after a strong advance. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Rising Three Methods, which indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4850. However, it stopped near 1.5250 after a break of the resistance level 1.5192. Further the bulls started to increase their influence.
The breakthrough of the resistance level 1.5250 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the resistance level 1.5418 is broken, upside movement targeted at 1.5600 and further at 1.5733 should be expected.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 1.5324 as its breakout will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5059.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for February 15, 2011

The EUR/GBP currency pair is approaching the support level 0.8389. In case it is broken, long positions should be closed as it will target the pair to 0.8332.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP has formed candlestick combination Piercing Line, which indicates upside movement.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair made a strong downside movement after an unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance level 0.8671. However, it reversed near the support level 0.8389. It means in its turn that the bulls activated on this level and the bears could not solidify here.
Upside movement is supported by 1) oversold RSI; 2) bullish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator.
Break of the resistance level 0.8498 will prove this viewpoint. In this case upside movement to 0.8671 should be expected.
Stop order should be placed slightly below 0.8389 as a break of this level will target the pair to 0.8332.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD candlestick analysis for February 15, 2011

The EUR/USD currency pair is declining further after a slight rollback. Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/USD has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, indicating downside movement.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks. However, near the resistance level 1.3852 (3-month high) the bears started to increase their influence and a rebound took place.
Downside movement is supported by the MACD divergence and Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing candlestick combinations on the day graph.
Break of the support level 1.3538 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect a downside movement to the support level 1.3227, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
On the other hand, if the resistance level 1.3852 is breached, short positions should be closed as it will result in growth to 1.4000.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD candlestick analysis for February 15, 2011

The GBP/USD is still trading in a downside corridor.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a candlestick combination Bearish Engulfing, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6280, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5800-1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located, should be expected.
Bearish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator supports downside movement as well.
Stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.6280 as breakthrough of this level will target the pair to 1.6457.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, February 15, 2011



According to the bank's announcement, the Japanese economy is gradually leaving its state of economic slowdown. The bank left the interest rate at its zero level, and intends to continue with its five-trillion asset purchase.

In China, the consumer price index rose by 4.9% in January as compared to the same months in 2010. The index growth was slower than predicted by analysts, and it arrived after a 4.6% growth in December.

The monthly Wall Street Journal economists' poll states that the U.S. Economy is expected to grow this year at the fastest rate since 2003 due to increased business and consumer expenditures. The 51 economists that participated in the polling estimated, on average, that the U.S. GDP will be larger in the fourth quarter of 2011 than it was at the same time last year.

In the macroeconomic sphere, later on we expect the publishing of retail sales data for January, which is expected to point to a 0.5% growth. In parallel, the Empire state index for the manufacturing sector in the New York area is expected to show a 15-point reading for February as compared to last month's 12-point reading. Furthermore, we expect the publishing of import and export data, the international market budget of the Treasury, the stock report and the housing market index which will provide another indication of the state of the American real estate market.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/CHF wave analysis for February 15, 2011







In general, as expected, the USD/CHF currency pair has been declining within the range of the correction structure, formed in relation with the whole dimension of the 3rd wave in the 3rd (3rd or C). At the same time the estimated correction level 38.2% (0.9690) was passed. However, there is a possibility that the wave structure of the 4th wave in this 3rd will become more complex and the price will decline to the next correction level 50.0% located near the 0.9663 level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com







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EUR/JPY Bearish Outlook , February 15, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






EUR/JPY



The strong resistance level at 114.00 forms the last line of defense that the pair may yet reach in a light momentum movement. Only a breach of the 114.00 resistance level will cancel the bearish prediction on the pair.

That said, a basis for a sell position depends of a break in the trend line formed from the January 10.The downwards movement is expected to carry the pair down to the lower support level of 110.30.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

NZD/USD Rebound , February 16, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







NZD/USD

A look on graph (daily) of the New Zealand dollar – United States dollar pair shows that

the technical image on the pair is consolidating, showing an attractive buy opportunity.
The downward pressure has remained in the 1st weekly support, at 0.7513 from here,
We mention that, the pair will go to touch his pivot Monthly during these days around

0.7680,United States dollars for one New Zealand dollar.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com



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(#ZSK1) Futures Soybeans,Downward Pressure , February 16, 2011 (Daily Strategy)








Soybeans

The price of soy beans has been at an especially sharp upwards trend for over eight months

running, without even the slightest technical correction. The price movements of the last

three months created the classic ceiling reversal pattern, which broke downwards, giving

the first signal of a possible reversal in soy bean prices.

The downward movement is expected to move at least to the first meaningful support level

around 1299 US dollars, and perhaps even down to the lower level around 1130, should the

negative momentum move into high gear.


Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at

instaforex.com







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EUR/USD wave analysis for February 16, 2011








The EUR/USD currency pair has made an attempt to complete formation of inner wave structure

of the estimated wave, developing in the range of the current downside correction. At the

same time, there is no certainty that the price will be able to form a reverse since there

is a possibility of this wave getting more complex and continuing in the direction of the

correction level 50.0% located near the 1.3370 level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com