Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 30, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave A is now developing against the downtrend from 116.78, therefore wave C may be coming to an end. Within this wave (A) there are three waves of still smaller degree (colored red) with subwave C still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.31-116.78, and expansions off 116.82-120.39-118.71.
Resistances:
- 120.80 = .382 retracement
- 120.92 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.05 = .50 ret
- 122.28 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 116.78-120.78.
Supports:
- 119.25 = .382 ret
- 118.78 = .50 ret
- 118.31 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD candlestick analysis for September 30, 2011

The GBP/USD currency pair is demonstrating consolidation after a sharp decline and further rebound. Earlier in a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a Falling Three Methods combination that gives us a bearish signal.
This combination was formed amid a downside movement after the pair could not break the resistance level near 1.6600, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence. At the same time each rollback was considered as a pause before further decline.
Break of the support level 1.5565 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect a downfall to the support level 1.5344. Its break will cause downside movement to 1.5290.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.5932 level as its break will allow the pair to reach 1.6200.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, September 30, 2011 Finish a month very difficult for financial markets, after which few conclusions can be drawn, depending on what might happen in the last quarter of the year. While the German parliament approved the easing of the European Fund for Financial Stability (EFSF for its acronym in English). For now, the situation in Greece is complex and pay more money to the Greeks not solve the underlying issue is just that: high indebtedness. In a move expected by the consensus of the agents, although opinion polls, opposed by 75% of German voters, the Bundestag gave the green light to the relaxation of EFSF with 523 votes in favor, 85 against and 3 abstentions. Thus 10 of the 17 member states agreed to the extension which seeks to enable the Fund to purchase bonds and credit lines to countries outside the Euro Zone financial problems, which delivers a degree of calm amid the difficulties we have seen over recent days. In short, remain open pockets of concern to both sides of the Atlantic, with Europe facing the spread of sovereign debt to its banks and seek a restructuring of the same, while the U.S. continues to grapple with internal problems due to your settings . As we have stated in previous reports, only China and its higher specific gravity compared to what it was in other crisis may cushion the effects of the current situation. Currencies move these days without a definite direction, while maintaining tight price ranges, although the dollar is taking a slight upward trend in general. Within minutes you will know the GDP of Canada, at 8:30, and the United States, at the same time, the figures for income and personal consumption. Later will be the turn of the Chicago PMI, closing the month the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan / Reuters. Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== NZD/USD Buy Long Above 0,7563 ,September 30, 2011 (Daily Strategy) NZD/USD The New Zealand dollar - United States dollar pair in the session today fell to 76.15 (fractal) level, now faces his weekly support around 0.7563, this will serve as a barrier to the fall which has lasted for several days, we buy and in these levels, but it is important to note that the price before a upward move, must consolidate at least for these levels above 0.7563. Our goal for the upward movement we can locate in the resistance of 0.8130. A weekly and monthly close below 0.7560 would change the course of the original pair and the continuation of a deeper drop. Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== USD/CHF wave analysis for September 30, 2011 As recently, the pair was moving in a quite narrow price range and continued to form the inner structure of the � wave of the current downside correction. If so, after it finishes the pair might resume downside movement in the direction of this estimated correction level 23.6% (0.8840) and even 38.2% (0.8630) given a favourable news background, thus forming the � wave of this correction. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 3, 2011

AUD/USD is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0401. Within this wave there are also three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 0.9985. On still smaller scale we have impulse subwave C (colored red in the chart) developing from 0.9878.
The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0768-1.0181-1.0401, 1.0401-0.9621-0.9985, 0.9985-0.9701-0.9878, 0.9878-0.9706-0.9809, 0.9809-0.9680-0.9767.
Supports:
- 0.9594 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9558 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9531 = XOP
- 0.9503 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9429-18 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and XOP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 0.9878 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (55-65 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (90-110 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 3, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave A is now developing against the downtrend from 116.78, therefore wave C may be coming to an end. Within this wave (A) there are two waves of still smaller degree (colored magenta) with subwave B still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.31-116.78, and expansions off 116.82-120.78-119.06.
Resistances:
- 120.80 = .382 retracement
- 121.51 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.05 = .50 ret
If the price keeps falling the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 116.78-120.78, and expansions off 120.78-119.06-120.73.
Supports:
- 119.01 = objective point (OP)
- 118.78 = .50 ret
- 118.31 = .618 ret
- 117.95 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 116.23 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-30 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Plosser on the US economy. October 3, 2011 (EUR/USD)

Recent attempts of the FRS to produce another economic impulse turned out to be in vain. They will eventually complicate the policy implementation in future, president of the Philadelphia Fed Charles Plosser said on Thursday.
The measures taken in August and September undermined the Fed’s credibility. They are also a source of thoughts that such policy will significantly influence the speed of economic recovery. According to his assessment, these thoughts will hardly come true though.
“If we act as if the Fed has the ability to solve all our economic problems, the credibility of the institution is undermined,” Plosser said. “The loss of that credibility and confidence could be costly to the economy because it will make it much harder for the Fed to implement effective monetary policy in the future,” he said.

Plosser has the right to vote at meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. He was one of the three directors of the central bank who were officially against the decisions approved at the August and September meetings. Last month the Fed made the following conclusion: weakening economic prospects create every condition for keeping the short-term interest rates low during 2 more years. Last week the Committee undertook what is called “operation twist” on the financial markets.

With a view to bring the cost of loans down, the Fed is up to sell short-term assets for 400 bln. US dollars in order to purchase long-term obligations. This step will be aimed at making long-term obligations yield less.
Plosser and Dallas and Minneapolis Fed’s presidents are doubtful about the effectiveness of supplementary economic stimulation. Their point of view is underpinned by the fact that while many families and companies are trying to reduce the debt (and the rates are already very low), further mitigation of the loan conditions will fail to bring effective results. They consider that the cost of such steps runs over their effectiveness.
"The reduction in long-term rates is likely to be less than 20 basis points for the 10-year Treasury yield, which is currently only 2%," he said. "The pass-through to the rates at which consumers and businesses actually borrow is likely to be much less."


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points For 03 - 07 of October, 2011





_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0254
Weekly - R2 = 1.0119
Weekly - R1 = 0.9890
Weekly Pivot = 0.9755
Weekly - S1 = 0.9526
Weekly - S2 = 0.9391
Weekly - S3 = 0.9162





_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1564
Monthly - R2 = 1.1167
Monthly - R1 = 1.0414
Monthly Pivot = 1.0017
Monthly - S1 = 0.9264
Monthly - S2 = 0.8867
Monthly - S3 = 0.8114



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points For 03 - 07 of October, 2011


____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3924
Weekly - R2 = 1.3807
Weekly - R1 = 1.3596
Weekly Pivot = 1.3479
Weekly - S1 = 1.3268
Weekly - S2 = 1.3151
Weekly - S3 = 1.2940




____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5083
Monthly - R2 = 1.4733
Monthly - R1 = 1.4060
Monthly Pivot = 1.3710
Monthly - S1 = 1.3037
Monthly - S2 = 1.2687
Monthly - S3 = 1.2014





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points For October 03 - 07, 2011


_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 78,46
Weekly - R2 = 77,84
Weekly - R1 = 77,46
Weekly Pivot = 76,84
Weekly - S1 = 76,46
Weekly - S2 = 75,84
Weekly - S3 = 75,46





_____MONTHLY___
Monthly - R3 = 79,64
Monthly - R2 = 78,74
Monthly - R1 = 77,91
Monthly Pivot = 77,01
Monthly - S1 = 76,18
Monthly - S2 = 75,28
Monthly - S3 = 74.45




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points For 03 - 07 of October, 2011

_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6004
Weekly - R2 = 1.5860
Weekly - R1 = 1.5721
Weekly Pivot = 1.5577
Weekly - S1 = 1.5438
Weekly - S2 = 1.5294
Weekly - S3 = 1.5155





_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.7066
Monthly - R2 = 1.6667
Monthly - R1 = 1.6125
Monthly Pivot = 1.5726
Monthly - S1 = 1.5184
Monthly - S2 = 1.4785
Monthly - S3 = 1.4243




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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Technical Analysis and Trade Recommendations for USD/CHF - October 3, 2011


H4 time frame





General review:
On October 3, the franc – US dollar pair closed the sideways moving and a new buy signal formed, the price passed the Ishimoku cloud which all confirms the current bullish sentiment on the market. The formed buy signal is strong and proved, as the Chinkou span is positioned above the price curve and the price is fixated above the Ishimoku cloud.
That is why now the target for trading long is the first level of resistance at 0.9176 and this target can be traded. If this level is passed through the next aim will appear the second resistance level of 0.9273. The uprise will continue until the price is placed above the Kijun Sen (0.9015), if the price declines below this line, this will denote weakening of buy signal and will call for narrowing longs, it is also recommended to set the stop loss below this level.
The Chinkou Span is above the price curve which is the confirmation of the current signal for purchases and stands for a bullish sentiment.
The Bollinger bands point to a rising motion as the bands are diverging and directed upwards, thus positions to buy the pair are most recommended now.
The MACD shows an upturn, the indicator is increasing which makes long positions possible, on an assumed correction (if the MACD recoils downside) it is advised to leave the market.
Trading recommendations:



Now it is recommended to trade long for the franc, target at 0.9176. If this level is crossed, the following target will be at 0.9273. The stop loss should be placed below 0.9015 and while the Kijun sen upmoves the stop loss should be gradually shifted upside. In case the MACD makes a downward rebound it is advised to narrow the longs manually.
In addition to the technical data it is also recommended to consider the fundamentals and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.





Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011




More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 4, 2011

AUD/USD is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0401. Within this wave there are also three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 0.9985. On still smaller scale we have impulse subwave C (colored red in the chart) developing from 0.9878.
The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0768-1.0181-1.0401, 1.0401-0.9621-0.9985, 0.9985-0.9701-0.9878, 0.9878-0.9706-0.9809, 0.9809-0.9591-0.9672.
Supports:
- 0.9454-51 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9418 = XOP
- 0.9359 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9319 = XOP
- 0.9205 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 0.9878 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (30-45 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 4, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave A is now developing against the downtrend from 116.78, therefore wave C may be coming to an end. Within this wave (A) there are two waves of still smaller degree (colored magenta) with subwave B still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.31-116.78, and expansions off 116.82-120.78-117.97.
Resistances:
- 120.42 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 120.80-85 = confluence area of .50 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 121.93-122.05 = OP and .618 ret
If the price keeps falling the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 116.78-120.78, and expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-116.78-120.78, 120.78-119.06-120.73.
Supports:
- 117.95 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 116.23-10 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and contracted objective point (COP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (5-10 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-60 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/JPY candlestick analysis for October 4, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the EUR/JPY currency pair is still demonstrating a decline after a slight rollback. The viewpoint at the pair remains bearish.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/JPY formed a Long Shadows candlestick indicating a decline confirmed further. This candlestick was formed amid a rollback after a breakthrough of an upside channel, which means that the bears dominate on the market.
Besides, the currency pair broke the support level 110.10 which proves this point of view. Further another bearish combination Three Falling Methods was formed, which intensified the downside movement. At the same time a break of the Fibonacci projection level 61.8 targeted the pair to the support level 106.75. Break of 106.75 will probably lead to a decline to a psychologically relevant support level 100.00.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 105.33 as its break will cause upside movement to 107.00.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com