Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

EUR/USD candlestick analysis for March 30, 2011

EUR/USD keeps on being traded in an uptrend. This currency pair is still capable of testing 1.4278 resistance level in the closest time. Earlier on the intraday chart EUR/USD shaped a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination which is an explicit signal to growth.
Such a candlestick combination points to the growth of the pair continuing for several weeks. However, there was a rollback registered at 1.4035 level which was a good opportunity to start buying.
Further upside movement is supported by the fact that the uptrend remains.
Break of the resistance level 1.4035 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the resistance level 1.4278.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss orders should be placed slightly below 1.3850 as a break of this level will denote that the uptrend is broken.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/AUD Bullish Outlook, March 30, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/AUD

After a wave of downwards movement for more than nine days, the British pound - Australian dollar pair takes a brief rest, apparently in order to gather strength before the beginning of a new change in trend or potential technical rebound. The second line of the monthly support served as a barrier to the sharp decline that came to the 1.5480 level.

Logout above this line, in the 1.5480 will confirm that it is not nothing but support the reversal and the beginning of a new upward sequence.It is estimated that upward sequence pushed the pair to the 1.5980 resistance level in the short term.




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com




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CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook March 30, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





CRUDE OIL

Crude oil futures for April have locked yesterday at a price of 104.50 United States dollars for one barrel of oil, We noted that duringthe week of trade, oil approached the level of 107 United States dollars for one barrel of oil, before retreating back down.

Therefore we believe that crude oil has to raise its price a little more, perhaps even levels of 108 00 dollars a barrel of crude, then from there would take a short break or fall to levels of 98 dollars a barrel.







Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com







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USD/CHF wave analysis for March 30, 2011






During yesterday’s trading the USD/CHF currency pair started to move away from the 0.9140 level. Thus, as we mentioned yesterday, the pair is forming a 5-wave structure in the range of the upside correction developed since March 23. Given this, we can suppose that at the moment the price is in the range of the future a wave of a more continuous correction structure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD wave analysis for March 30, 2011






Given the situation formed by the end of the GBP/USD trading, we can see some uncertainty in further development of the wave situation. This uncertainty is explained by the fact that the price can both continue declining, thus forming a more complex structure of the c wave, in the e, and make a reversal, thus indicating a new section of the uptrend.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com




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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for March 30, 2011



Overview:



The euro is still observing the downside movement and a sell signal, the price is still inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which does not allow us to trade either up or down. The formed sell signal is weak and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is inside the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 1.3932 – the second support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the third support level at 1.3814. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.4120), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show downside movement, the lines are slightly narrowing and directed down. The MACD is descending, thus indicating current downside movement, if it reverses up this will denote the beginning of a correction movement.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the sell signal strengthens (the price fixates below the Ichimoku Cloud) and trade down with target at 1.3932 and further to 1.3814. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.4120. If the MACD reverses up, it is recommended to cut short positions.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.



The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/SEK candlestick analysis for March 31, 2011

The USD/SEK currency pair is demonstrating downside movement after it failed to break the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/SEK formed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination that indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This combination formed after the pair failed to break the 6.2383 level, which means that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the 6.5019 level, where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located.
However, it is worth mentioning that if the 6.2794 support level is broken, long positions should be closed as this will cause a decline to the 6.2383 level.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 31, 2011

The GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave B (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. The immediate supports are Fibonacci retracements of 130.18-133.76 and 122.49-133.76.
Supports:
- 132.39 = .382 retracement
- 131.97 = .50 ret
- 131.55 = .618 ret
- 129.45 = .382 ret
If the uptrend resumes and the price breaks above 133.76 the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 122.49-133.04-130.18.
Resistances:
- 134.21 = super contracted objective point (SCOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term is now up it's preferable to look for longs when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level or into the oversold area (current prices), or better yet - when the price hits the Fib support at 132.39.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

NZD/USD candlestick analysis for March 31, 2011

The NZD/USD currency pair is rolling back after it failed to reach the 0.7660 resistance level.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD pair formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed after the decline of the currency pair was limited near 0.7160, which denotes that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the Fibonacci correction level 50.0, where the resistance level 0.7660 is also located.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.7492, since its break will allow the pair to reach 0.7330. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD candlestick analysis for March 31, 2011

In a daily graph the GBP/USD is bouncing off after it failed to break the support level near 1.5960.
Earlier on a daily graph the GBP/USD has formed a Three Black Crows candlestick combination, which indicates downside movement.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6400, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the support level 1.5960 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.6400 level. Since a break of this level will target the pair to 1.6450.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD candlestick analysis for March 31, 2011

Support levels: 0.9650, 0.9600, 0.9550
Resistance levels: 0.9840, 1.0000, 1.0057

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is still demonstrating downside movement after a slight consolidation. The viewpoint at the pair remains bearish.
As mentioned before, break of the 0.9810 support level will initiate downside movement to 0.9650 with 0.9600 as further target.
If a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0000 resistance level, further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/JPY Around the Third Monthly Resistance March 30, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





EUR/JPY

The strengthening of the euro in recent days push the price of pair Euro - Japanese yen,

which completed a consecutive increase of 1100 points exactly from the previous low around

106.75. to the significant level of resistecia monthly 117.89 .

From here, the chances of a new wave bearish who carry a pair of biased movement to

horizontal movement and return to their last low around 112.70 yen per euro. A daily close

below 117. 50 confirms our bearish outlook.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com




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AUD/CHF Bearish Outlook, March 30, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





AUD/CHF

A sharp upward sequence launched the Australian dollar – Swiss franc pair by over 900

pips. to the maximum level of 0.9598 which represents a significant resistance level just

in the weekly R1. The fact that the pair only touched the level of resistance and did not

close over it, represents a real opportunity to sell short position.


A tenuous negative deviation supporting the opening of a new wave bearish can be found in

the Momentum indicator. The goal for the total exercise is the important support level of

0.9120

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

instaforex.com







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EUR/USD wave analysis for March 31, 2011





During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD currency pair made attempts to develop its gains in

favour of the euro. However, quite strong resistance level near 1.4130-1.4140 prevented the

price from forming a new upside section. As a result, another series of waves abc was

indicated, which allows both a continuous growth of the price, and the resumption of

downside movement with forming of more complex and continuous correction structure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com



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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for March 31, 2011









Overview:
The euro has not strengthened the sell signal, the price could not pass the Ichimoku Cloud,

as a result we see a new buy signal without a target level. The formed sell signal is

strong and not confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the

price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, for up trading it is recommended to wait until the

current signal is confirmed (the Chinkou Span fixates above the price graph). In this case

the first target for the upside movement is 1.4206 – the first resistance level. If this

level is passed the second target will be the second resistance level at 1.4324. Downside

movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.4110), if the price fixates

below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is below the

price graph, which does not confirm the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment.

The Bollinger bands show the beginning of the upside movement, the lines are slightly

diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, thus indicating current upside movement,

if it reverses down this will denote the beginning of a correction movement.



Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the buy signal strengthens (the Chinkou Span

fixates above the price graph) and trade up with target at 1.4206 and further to 1.4324.

Stop Loss should be placed below 1.4110. If the MACD reverses down, it is recommended to

cut long positions.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the

time of their release.



The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window. 



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com

CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook April 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





CRUDE OIL

The instability will continue supporting the price of black gold, which has stopped for a

brief rest after having leaped up rapidly from the levels of 85 to the highs of 107.

There exists a serious chance that the price of crude oil continues raising its price,

therefore, a return to the level of 105.00 would be a good opportunity to buy with an goal

to the level of 110.70 dollars for a barrel of oil.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com




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EUR/GBP Strong Support 0.8760 April 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





EUR/GBP

The Euro – British Pound pair has successfully broken through the resistance level of

0.8760. We note that even keeps its uptrend line, a return to strong support level of

0.8760 would be a good opportunity to buy with a goal in 0.8900

Our bullish outlook on this pair will remain always in when the price is on the line of the

weekly pivot around 0.8748.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

instaforex.com







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EUR/USD wave analysis for April 1, 2011





During yesterday’s trading, the EUR/USD price advanced by another figure, to start

declining from the reached day’s high at 1.4237. At the same time, the inner wave structure

of the 3rd wave (or c) looks quite incomplete. Therefore, given the current wave situation,

we might suppose that after forming the 4th wave in this 3rd (or c) the euro will keep

growing in the direction the 43 figure level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 4, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored red in the chart) within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 122.49-133.04-130.18, and 130.18-133.76-132.38, and also 132.38-134.42-133.84.
Resistances:
- 136.70 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 137.14 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 138.17 = XOP
If the price reverses down the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 132.38 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term is now up it's preferable to look for longs when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current price) or into the oversold area (50-60 pips to go).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com