Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/CHF breaks trendline support. Book profits and sell rallies again around 1.4775/1.48






Technical outlook and chart setups:
The same 4H chart view has been presented here for continuation in setups. As discussed yesterday and expected, the pair has broken the trend line support and prices around 1.4640/30 levels. It is recommended to book profits on short positions taken earlier and prepare to sell rallies again. Immediate support from here is 1.4550, followed by 1.4500 and 1.44; while resistance is between 1.4775/1.4800 ( this region is also the back side of the support line which is now resistance and the 0.618 fibonacci resistance), followed by 1.4875 and 1.4920 respectively. Looking to sell rallies again at the confluence of trendline, fibonacci and trade signal appearance.


Trading recommendations:
Book profits on short positions taken earlier, sell again on rallies.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 9, 2013








Today's Support and Resistance levels:
R3: 1.6688
R2: 1.6601
R1: 1.6556
Current Spot: 1.6521
S1: 1.6470
S2: 1.6454
S3: 1.6443



Technical summary:
We did not expect an expanding flat correction to develop, but as long as important support at 1.6443 stays untouched, we will be looking for a break above 1.6556 and more importantly a break above 1.6750 confirming a new powerful rally higher. However, a break below 1.6443 will be a game changer and call for a new decline towards 1.5900 and likely even below. In the short term we would like to see support in the 1.6500-1.6510 zone protecting the downside for a rally above 1.6556 indicating that we have seen the expanding flat correction end at 1.6470.


Trading recommendation:
To our suprise, our stop at 1.6520 was hit, but we will re-buy EUR here at 1.6521 with a stop + reverse at 1.6440.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 10, 2013








Today's Support and Resistance levels:
R3: 1.6750
R2: 1.6688
R1: 1.6615
Current Spot: 1.6586
S1: 1.6550
S2: 1.6508
S2: 1.6470


Technical summary:
We have seen the expected rally above minor resistance at 1.6556 indicating that green wave ii ended at 1.6470 and that green wave iii is developing. In the short term we would like to see support at 1.6550 protecting the downside for a break above 1.6615 and more importantly a break above 1.6750, which will confirm that green wave iii is indeed developing for a rally towards at least 1.7239 and likely even higher. Only a break below 1.6470 will be of concern and could add considerable downside pressure.


Trading recommendation:
Stay long from 1.6520 with a stop at 1.6465. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy after a break above 1.6615 with the same stop at 1.6465.



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Gold: bulls prevail










After a good rally, gold halted near the resistance zone. Yesterday, the market was prevailed by bulls. We penned a positive divergence in charts, hence it came true. Thanks to all the bull bidders and to the indicators. For today's trading session gold levels are following:
NEAR TERM - 1 278 strong resistance.
INTRA VIEW - Above 1,268 only upward moves.
Resistance 1,268, 1,278, 1,290, 1,295.
Support 1,255, 1,247, 1,240, 1,237.
A close above 1,295 brings more bullish sentiment. In case of a close below 1,237, bears take control. Important levels are 1,215, 1,210, CMP 1,257.

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Gold short betting was increased




Short betting was increased in yellow metal couple of times and longs slipped. Gold lost almost 25% year to date from its 2011 peaks. Speculations increases as the Fed date comes closer. Expectations of Fed tampering of its purchasing program makes gold move southward.
Dip buying and the weakness in USD makes gold fly higher. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF were unchanged at 835.705 tonnes.
In the tech view gold is holding its June lows around 1,180. That day gold opened at 1,200 and managed to close at higher levels, but it hit a low at 1,180. For the last few days, gold managed to hold 1,210 levels and moved towards resistance levels. We can see 1,200 levels as a floor price.
Resistance: 1,268, 1,278.
Support: 1,247, 1,240, 1,233.
Close above 1,278, then the bulls dominate in the short term, until gold trades in tight zones. Cmp 1,254.


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USD/JPY intraday technical levels for December 16, 2013




During the FOMC meeting, the market participants will be cautious about opening positions, this issue will make the market move in a ranging situation before the FOMC meeting; Japan today will release some data like Tankan Manufacturing Index, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index; and the US will only release some news such as US-Flash Manufacturing PMI, US-TIC Long-Term Purchases, US-Industrial Production m/m, so today the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3 : 103.48.
Resistance. 2 : 103.28.
Resistance. 1 : 103.08.
Support. 1 : 102.83.
Support. 2 : 102.63.
Support. 3 : 102.42.


DESCRIPTION:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.42) and resistance 3 (103.48). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.



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Exxon yearly breakout channel



Exxon Mobil shows a good rally from the October low at 84.84. It has moved all the way to 98.8. Indicators are overbought slightly. It has broken up yearly trendline. I could expect Exxon to move much more higher to levels around 103. Monthly charts are showing bigger targets. Before an upward movement, it should make some correction and consolidation to move higher.
Support 96.6 94.5 94.2



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AUD/USD analysis for December 18, 2013










AUD/USD Elliott Wave
For the last few days, the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards, impulsive wave 5 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave 1 (coloured green) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European session we could observe descending 0.8957 towards the 0.8881 level and we can consider this as the end of the 1 wave (coloured green). Therefore, during the New York session, this commodity pair did not manage to hold this level and the price has retraced back to 0.8927 level. At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading around 0.8927 level and we are expecting to see more upward movements in the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 2 should retrace 50% of wave 1 we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 0.9316 (50% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 0.8880 level as stop loss.


Support and resistance
(S3) 0.8792 (S2) 0.8837 (S1) 0.8868 (PP) 0.8913 (R1) 0.8944 (R2) 0.8989 (R3) 0.9020


Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long position at level 0.8950 with stop loss at 0.8880 and take profit at 0.9316 are recommended.



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USD/CAD analysis for December 19, 2013










USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few days the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards, impulsive wave .iii (coloured black) of the bigger wave iii (coloured blue) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European session we could observe strong ascending movement from 1.0600 towards 1.0669 level. Therefore, during the New York session this commodity pair has continued trading in a bullish mood and the price reached a new sessions high at 1.0718 level. At the moment the USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.0722 level and we are expecting to see more upwards movements in the final (5) wave.In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 5 should retrace 61.8% of wave 4 we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 1.0797 (61.8% of wave 4). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.0620 level as stop loss.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0540 (S2) 1.0557 (S1) 1.0582 (PP) 1.0599 (R1) 1.0624 (R2) 1.0641 (R3) 1.0666


Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long positions at 1.0700 with stop loss at 1.0600 and take profit at 1.0797 are recommended.





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Intraday technical levels for USD/JPY for December 20, 2013










Today Japan will release some data like Monetary Policy Statement; BOJ Press Conference. The US will release the US-Final GDP q/q; and Fed Chairman Nomination Vote. So there is a probability that USD/JPY will move with low to moderately volatility during this day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3 : 104.85.
Resistance. 2 : 104.65.
Resistance. 1 : 104.44.
Support. 1 : 104.18.
Support. 2 : 103.98.
Support. 3 : 103.77.


DESCRIPTION:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (103.77) and resistance 3 (104.85). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.





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