Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 30, 2011

The AUD/USD pair is developing an impulse wave A (light green in the chart) of the medium term downtrend. Within this wave we have two subwaves (royal blue in the chart) and a potential corrective subwave B is developing from 0.9689 comprising two subwaves (magenta in the chart) and a subwave B developing from 0.9897. However, this wave will be marked as A if it breaks below 0.9689.

As for now, the immediate supports are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9689-0.9897 and expansions of 0.9897-0.9800-0.9855.

Supports:

- 0.9768 = .618 retracement
- 0.9758 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9698 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9601 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

If the price reverses to the downside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 0.9897 - this wave has not developed yet, so resistances are not available.



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving upwards, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-35 pips below the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for May 30, 2012


USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading in sideways movement.During the early European session we could observe the price testing a 200EMA support at the 1.0205 level. We can consider this downward movement as the end of the A wave (coloured blue). Therefore during the New York session we could observe the ascending movement towards the 1.0268 level (daily high). During the end of the session the price pushed back to the 1.0220 level. Today in the course of Asian session the USD/CAD pair started pushing higher and price is currently testing yesterdays high so we expect the price to reach 1.0288 level before this major continued trading in a bearish mood. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 50% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (0.9956-1.0310) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0175 (38.2% of wave 3) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0134 (50% of wave 3). The resistance level at 1.0270 can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD RMPI m/m, IPPI m/m and USD Pending Home Sales m/m that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0171 (S2) 1.0194 (S1) 1.0209 (PP) 1.0233 (R1) 1.0256 (R2) 1.0271 (R3) 1.0295

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0280 with Stop Loss at 1.0300, Take Profit 1 at 1.0175 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0134 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 31, 2011

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (magenta in the chart) and an impulse subwave C is developing from 126.39. Within this wave we also have three subwaves (red in the chart) including impulse subwave C developing from 125.03.

Presently the downside targets are Fibonacci expansions of 131.75-127.76-129.33, 129.33-124.59-126.39, 126.39-124.08-125.03, 125.03-124.33-124.92.

Supports:

- 121.65 = objective point (OP)
- 121.29 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.03-121.71.

Resistances:

- 122.98 = .382 retracement
- 123.37 = .50 ret
= 123.76 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices as well). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 31, 2011

The AUD/USD pair is developing an impulse wave A (light green in the chart) of the medium term downtrend. Within this wave we have three subwaves (royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 0.9897 comprisisng three subwaves (orange red in the chart) and a subwave C developing from 0.9855

Presently the immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions of 0.9897-0.9800-0.9855.

Supports:

- 0.9601 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9897-0.9673.

Resistances:

- 0.9759 = .382 retracement
- 0.9785 = .50 ret
- 0.9811 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (5-15 pips above the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 4, 2011

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart) including three subwaves (magenta in the chart) and an impulse subwave C developing from 126.39. Within this wave we also have four subwaves (red in the chart) and potential corrective subwave 4 developing from 118.74.

Presently the downside targets are Fibonacci expansions of 129.33-124.59-126.39, 126.39-124.08-125.03, 125.03-118.74-120.77.

Supports:

- 118.72 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 116.88 = contracted objective point (COP)

If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.03-118.74.

Resistances:

- 121.14 = .382 retracement
- 121.88 = .50 ret
- 122.63 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 4, 2011

The AUD/USD is developing an impulse wave A (light green in the chart) of the medium term downtrend comprising three subwaves (royal blue in the chart) and an impulse subwave C developing from 0.9897.

Presently the immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions of 1.0473-0.9689-0.9897, 0.9897-0.9581-0.9724.

Supports:

- 0.9529 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9412-08 = confluence area of COP and objective point (OP)

If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9897-0.9581 and expansions of 0.9581-0.9724-0.9627.

Resistances:

- 0.9715 = COP
- 0.9739 = .50 ret
- 0.9770-76 = confluence area of OP and .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (5-15 pips above the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CHF Elliott wave count for June 4, 2012


USD/CHF Elliott Wave
Last week the USD/CHF was trading in a upward channel developing 3 wave(coloured blue). During the Fridays European session we could observe ascending movement toward the 0.9752 level.Therefore during the early New York session this major continued trading in a bullish mood and reached 0.9770 level. We can consider this move as end of the 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). During the second half of the New York session after Non-Farm Employment Change data showed negative results the USD/CHF pair started pushing lower reached a new daily low at 0.9640 level.Today during the Asian session we could observe the continuation of the bearish mood and price is currently testing 0.9660 resistance level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 61.8% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (0.9039-0.9772) with Take Profit 1 at 0.9619 (50% of wave 3) and Take Profit 2 at 0.9582 (61.8% of wave 3). Resistance level at 0.9700 can be used as Stop Loss point.


Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 0.9557 (S2) 0.9608 (S1) 0.9640 (PP) 0.9690 (R1) 0.9741 (R2) 0.9773 (R3) 0.9823

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9650 with Stop Loss at 0.9700, Take Profit 1 at 0.9619 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9582 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/JPY Wave Analysis for June 5, 2012






Wave marking analysis:
Yesterday the USD/JPY tried to develop the ascending movement that began on Friday transforming it to the new and more prolonged corrective structure. The first possible targets are seen near 78.60 – 78.90 corresponding to the correction levels of 23.6% and 38.2% for the whole supposed wave 3. If that proves to be so, then after the completion of these levels, the pair will resume its movement towards the target level located near 76.50.



Targets for the continuation of the downward trend within the wave 3 or C in C:
77.67 – 161.8% of Fibonacci

Targets for the option with the wave 4 in C or formation of new upward part of the trend:
78.24 – 23.6% of Fibonacci
78.61 – 38.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the descending part of the trend is being forming supposedly within the wave 4 in C. If this suggestion is true, then the wave C has quite complicated inner structure that is likely to complicate several times. In general the pair is likely to continue its growth towards 78.24 and 78.61 which is equal to 23.6% and 38.2% of Fibonacci. The situation with this pair is rather controversial than clear and the wave picture needs clarifications.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for June 5, 2012






General situation:
Analyzing the USD/JPY rate on June 5 we can see that in the course of yesterday’s deals the rate was moving within a correction though the further descending movement is still possible. The current signal for Sell-deals remains strong, as the Chinkou Span is fixed below the price chart and the price is located higher than the Ichimoku Cloud. That is why the target for downside movement is seen at the first support level 77.20. In case traders are able to pass this level through, the next target will be seen at the second support level of 76.39. The descending movement remains relevant as long as the price is located higher than the critical Kijun-Sen line (78.60). Stop Loss is recommended to be placed higher than this line while bearish trade. The signal for Sell-deals will weaken in case the price is fixed above this line. Chinkou Span is located below the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and indicating the bearish mood on the USD/JPY market. Bollinger Bands indicates the descending movement, lines are restricting and directed downwards, so short positions are still relevant. MACD is directed upwards indicating the current corrective movement. Therefore, you cannot consider short position until the indicator reverses to downwards showing the resumption of descending movement.

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/JPY market it is recommended to consider Sell positions with 77.20 seen as first target. In case this level has been overcome, the point 76.39 will be considered as the next target. Stop Loss is to be placed above the 78.60 and as this line goes lower, lines can be placed to downwards. When the price passes 30-40 pips to the required side, Stop Loss can be replaced to the non-loss area. Take profits are to be set approximately on 77.30 and 76.50 levels.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

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My Blog with additional information to the analysis.


Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 5, 2011

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (magenta in the chart), and an impulse subwave C developing from 126.39 incuding four subwaves (red in the chart), and a potential corrective subwave 4 developing from 118.74 that comprises three subwaves (orange red in the chart), and a potential impulse subwave C developing from 119.67.

At the moment resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 125.03-118.74 and expansions of 118.74-120.77-119.67.

Resistances:

- 120.92 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 121.14 = .382 retracement
- 121.70 = objective point (OP)
- 121.88 = .50 ret
- 122.63 = .618 ret
- 122.95 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Presenlty the downside targets are Fibonacci expansions of 129.33-124.59-126.39, 126.39-124.08-125.03, 125.03-118.74-120.77.

Supports:

- 118.72 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 116.88 = contracted objective point (COP)



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 5, 2011

The AUD/USD pair is developing a corrective wave B (light green in the chart) of the medium term downtrend from 0.9581 comprising three subwaves (orange red in the chart) and an impulse subwave C developing from 0.9627.

Presently the immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0473-0.9581 and expansions of 0.9581-0.9724-0.9627, 0.9627-0.9746-0.9693.

Resistances:

- 0.9812 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9858 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9886 = XOP
- 0.9922 = .382 retracement

If the price reverses to the downside, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9581 - this wave has not developed yet, so are not available.



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving upwards, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (55-65 pips below the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com