Thread: NordFX - ECN/STP, MT4, SR, Multiterminal broker

Forex Forecast for 23-27 November 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- it appeared impossible to give a sensible forecast for EUR/USD last week as both experts and indicators were at a complete loss, pointing in different directions. However, exactly this kind of “forecast” turned out right – first, the pair fell a bit, then went up some, then dropped again, finishing the week without any clarity;
- the vast majority of the experts and graphical analysis predicted a sideways trend for GBP/USD, which happened. At first, the pair slowly went down to 1.5155, then went up to its level of one month ago and then fell again to the first support set by the experts – 1.5185;
- graphical analysis proved to be right about USD/JPY – first, the pair was supposed to go up to 123.00-123.75, fail to break through resistance and roll down, returning to 122.50 by the end of the week. In fact, the pair failed to break through resistance around 123.60 twice, after which it bounced down and ended up at 122.80;
- the USD/CHF pair was ahead of schedule. It was expected to stay in the range of 0.9900-1.0100 for some time, then get fixed around 1.0120-1.0130 and only from there start assailing 1.0210. All this transpired but much quicker: already on Tuesday, USD/CHF broke through resistance not only at 1.0100 but also 1.0130, and by Wednesday, it reached the set peak of 1.0210, after which the pair entered a sideways trend.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- all indicators point downward for EUR/USD. However, graphical analysis on H1 and H4 shows that the pair will bounce off support at 1.0628, go up to resistance at 1.0700 first and only then continue to fall. At the same time, about half of the experts believe that the initial rebound can be 100 points higher – to 1.0800, while the weekly bottom will be in the area of 1.0500-1.0520;
- graphical analysis on H1 and H4 insists on GBP/USD’s upward rebound to 1.5250, then the pair should oscillate in a 1.5170-1.5250 corridor and drop to support at 1.5085. The next support level is 1.5025. On hitting the bottom, the pair is likely to return to around 1.5300, which is echoed by 65% of the analysts;
- as for USD/JPY, the indicators on H4 point strictly down while on D1 – strictly up. The experts hold a similar view. A summary of their opinions shows quite a wide sideways channel with a 121.85-123.20 range and the pivot point around 122.80. It should be noted that graphical analysis on H1 and H4 indicates that at the start of the week, the pair will go down and only then begin to rise;
- the forecast for USD/CHF is a small pullback down to support at 1.0135 initially and then a surge to a new peak. The target is 1.0250. At the same time, the analysts believe that the pair will remain in a 1.0200-1.0220 corridor most of the time whereas just one (!) analyst suggests that the pair may fall to 0.9800.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 30 November - 4 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- graphical analysis on H1 and H4 predicted that EUR/USD would bounce off support at 1.0628, move up to resistance at 1.0700 first and only then continue to fall. The pair actually went up reaching 1.0690 on Wednesday, after which it dropped, as predicted;
- graphical analysis turned out to be only 50% right about GBP/USD. According to its forecast, the pair was supposed to rebound upwards first, then drop to support at 1.5085 and further to around 1.5025. In fact, starting from Monday, the pair began to fall and reached the set bottom by Friday, ending up at 1.5030;
- last week, the experts and the indicators differed regarding USD/JPY. Nonetheless, the summary of their opinions proved quite efficient – resistance was at 123.20, and the pair was moving along the 122.80 pivot point during the week, finishing exactly at the set level;
- the forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be correct essentially – a small pullback down to support at 1.0135 initially (the pair made it 1.0144) and then a surge to the new target of 1.0250. All that happened as the pair reached 1.0250 on Wednesday and stayed there till mid-Friday when it shot up by another 100 points.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- regarding EUR/USD, 65% of the experts, all indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict a fall to the low of March 2015, that is to 1.0450-1.0500, after which the pair should fight its way to resistance at 1.0620;
- the analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis almost unanimously suggest that GBP/USD should fall to the rates of last March. The nearest support is set at 1.5000, with the next at 1.4890;
- opinions diverge about USD/JPY – 70% of the experts, backed by the indicators, insist on the pair’s transition to 123.00-124.00 whereas graphical analysis on H4 dissents expressly. It, in turn, shows that USD/JPY should first go down to support at 121.50 and then return to last week’s pivot point 122.80. The indicators on D1 also vote for the continuation of the sideways trend;
- the USD/CHF pair is rapidly approaching its values of 2007-2009, and now a fuller picture can be seen only on W1 or larger timeframes. As for the weekly forecast, all experts, all indicators along with graphical analysis on H4 speak about the pair’s aspiration to reach 1.0400 first and then 1.0500. Such unanimity may seem a bit fishy, and a look at the one-year-old chart would only cause more concern. Throughout last autumn, USD/CHF was also rising actively but then Black Thursday occurred 15 January. It’s unlikely to happen again in the coming days, nevertheless graphical analysis on D1 reminds that during the week the pair may well fall to 0.9850 and only then return to around 1.0300.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Investing in Gold: Endurance Test

Nathan Rothschild from the famous banking dynasty once said that gold was not understood. Attempts to sum up the opinions of the most respected representatives of the financial community only prove Rothschild right – all discussions about gold turn into a real battle.

Some say that gold is unwanted material suited only for making women’s trinkets. Thus, gold bugs investing in this ‘dust’ are either simply ignorant or unlucky profiteers pushing themselves and their customers to the brink of a precipice. The counter riposte would be that gold is the only powerful thing that can help you preserve your capital regardless of any shakeups.

Here is some background before we look at the reasoning of both sides. Fourteen years ago, 2 April 2001, the price of gold hit the bottom at $255.30 an ounce, after which the price was on the rise for a whole decade. No other asset of the financial market has displayed such behavior!

In 2011, gold broke $1,900 an ounce and it looked like the landmark of $2,000 was reachable in the next few months but then gold started to lose value fast again. Optimists called that crash a correction while pessimists viewed it as the return to gold’s actual worth. Nowadays, gold prices are at the rate of 5 years ago. Doomsayers are gloating that this is not the end of it but rather the beginning and a real stone fall is yet to come.

Speaking of stones, The Wall Street Journal dubbed the precious metal… a rock. An article titled “Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock” tried to convince the reader that gold, in point of fact, stopped being a safe haven and a hedge against inflation. The author inquired, “So why, even as Greece has defaulted, the euro has sunk against the dollar, and the Chinese stock market has stumbled, has gold been sitting there like a pet rock?... Many people may have bought gold for the wrong reasons…”

The title of another article in The Washington Post speaks for itself – “Gold Is Doomed”. Bloomberg also foresees a further decline for gold. According to Bloomberg analysts, in early 2016, gold will fall to $984 an ounce, and this will be the biggest drop for the past six years. Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London says, “Gold is out of fashion like flared trousers: no one wants it. It’s not going to collapse, but we think it is going to be at a lower level in the not-too-distant future.”

The sentiment is shared by Brian Barish, President of Cambiar Investors LLC, “It’s not a commodity that has much fundamental demand. It’s pretty, so people use it for jewelry. But it’s unlike iron ore or oil, or copper, or corn. There’s not specific end-use for it.”

The rate of $984 is surely low but it’s not the bottom by far. In his MarketWatch article, Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group, states that now gold’s fair value is $825 but “…whenever gold does eventually drop to fair value, it will overshoot and drop to a much lower value.” In his calculations, if gold drops below fair value like it did in the mid-1970s and the late 1990s, it would trade at around $350 an ounce. This opinion may be worth listening to as Erb and Duke University professor Campbell Harvey forecast a long-term gold bear market at its inception.

Thus far, it’s been about the stance of those supporting the bears in their fight with the bulls. Naturally, as in any contest, there’re proponents of the other side. As such, Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at DoubleLine Capital, thinks that gold can rebound to $1,400 an ounce. In his opinion, one of the reasons for this is negative yields of a range of European bonds, which can serve as a signal of deflation and make gold more appealing. “Momentum is bearish," weighs in Jeffrey Nichols, senior economic advisor with Rosland Capital. Agreeing with Gundlach, he believes that gold will bounce back eventually. "It's only a matter of time before gold turns around," Nichols said. "Gold should climb to a much higher price over the next three to five years thanks to physical demand from emerging markets."

Michael Cuggino, President and Portfolio Manager of Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, Inc., concurs, “Over time, gold prices will appreciate. Russia, China, India and central banks of other countries are looking to diversify their holdings.” Cuggino also admitted that gold prices would fluctuate a lot in the near future. Nonetheless, he has about 20% of the fund's assets tied up in gold as a hedge against inflation and market volatility.

Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants, is also on the bullish side – “Gold will see another parabolic bull run from July 2016. Prices may reach $1,700 or higher between June 2016 and November 2016. Until then, gold investors need to have the patience and not get scared by more price falls.”

Still, the question remains – Where will the price move? “As I see it,” says John Gordon, leading analyst with international broker NordFX, “it would be a mistake to give any forecast on the basis on one or two factors, albeit important ones. Experience has proven that things are more complex in reality, and gold is no exception.”

“I would point out seven global factors that, in their interaction, shape the price of gold – inflation, interest rates, the situation on stock markets, geopolitical environment, a strong or weak US dollar, oil prices and demand for gold in Asia.

A modification in any of these factors can upset the equilibrium of the multifaceted system, which would result in the sum vector, or the trend, changing its direction. Therefore, I’d advise investors preferring gold to diversify risk and also invest in shares of gold-mining companies and established investment funds as they are able to respond to market changes in a more flexible manner.”

In conclusion, one cannot but present one more – quite sensational – opinion. Avi Gilburt, managing member of Gilburt Financial Services, LLC and an Elliott Wave analyst, claims that in the foreseeable future, gold will reach… $25,000 a troy ounce! Gilburt wrote, “I stand before you today, almost feeling like Elliott did back in 1941. Yes, in 2015, I am seeing this correction finally completing (but at much lower levels) and starting a major bull market phase that can last the next 50 years.” “Yes, I know that this is quite a bold prediction. However, please remember that, for me, it is all a matter of mathematics and nothing more.”

What forecasts will turn out right – bullish or bearish? Time will show, in ‘just’ 50 years. Meanwhile, please be patient – after all, it’s only business and nothing more.

Forex Forecast for 7-11 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- as for EUR/USD, the past week showed vividly that fundamental events can refute all forecasts of technical analysis. Thus, the ECB’s decision on key interest rates stopped the falling trend on Thursday and brought the pair to 1-month-old values;
- the GBP/USD pair managed to fulfil the forecast before Thursday, according to which the pair was supposed to fall to 1.4890. The pair reached this support mid-week and then, on the ECB’s decisions, went up, returning to last week’s average values;
- opinions differed regarding USD/JPY last week. Most experts insisted on the pair’s transition to around 123.00-124.00 while graphical analysis, on the opposite, foresaw a fall to support at 121.50 and then a return to the 122.80 pivot point. The indicators on D1 also voted for the continuation of the sideways trend. The pair ended up going both up to 123.70 and down to 122.30. Ultimately, USD/JPY returned to the average values of the past 4 weeks, confirming the forecast about a further sideways trend;
- graphical analysis on D1 warned that USD/CHF could easily drop to 0.9850 during the week. It turned out that the pair just needed a pretext to go for it. The ECB’s decisions announced by Mario Draghi served as such, and the pair plunged by almost 400 points but then bounced back to the key level of 1.0000.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- the indicators are at a loss about EUR/USD, which makes sense after Mario Draghi’s speech: on the H4 timeframe, 85% of them vote for a rise; it’s already 58% on D1 while the number dwindles to 16% on W1. As for the analysts, 70% of them believe that the pair will still continue to move upwards in an effort to reach 1.1000-1.1100;
- the experts, the indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on H4 almost unanimously predict that GBP/USD will rise to 1.5200. The next resistance is at 1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 indicates that before rising, the pair may go down to support around 1.5055;
- the analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis almost as one suggest that USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend in the same channel where it started to move 6 November. The pivot point is 122.95, support is 122.20, and resistance is 123.75. Only one expert doesn’t rule out that the pair will rise to 125.00;
- the forecast for USD/CHF isn’t so clear-cut. If most experts and graphical analysis on H4 predict a rise to 1.1000, the indicators on H4 and D1 are more inclined to see the pair go down. By the way, graphical analysis on D1 also indicates that before USD/CHF soars up to the said level, it should first fall to support around 0.9765.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 14-18 December 2015

First, a review of the forecast for the past week:
- the publication of the last forecast for EUR/USD (a further rise and reaching 1.1000-1.1100) made skeptics say that couldn’t be right. Apparently, it could just as well. Already on Thursday, the pair got up to 1.1042 and reached 1.1030 next day, thus ‘scoring a brace’ in football terms;
- the GBP/USD pair was predicted to go up to around 1.5200-1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis pointed out that before rising, the pair might fall to support at 1.5055. In fact, GBP/USD first dropped to 1.4957, which is lower than expected, then it went up as predicted and finished the week at 1.5228;
- the USD/JPY pair defied the majority opinion, which doesn’t always prove right. The analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis had almost unanimously predicted sideways movement for the pair. However, the pair started to fall mid-week, broke through the 122.20 support on Wednesday and reached the low of 120.57 on Friday;
- there was no clarity about USD/CHF. One of the scenarios was a fall to support around 0.9765. The pair did go down but stalled at 0.9800 without hitting the said bottom level.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- most indicators, graphical analysis on H1 and 34% of the experts vote for EUR/USD to continue its upward trend to 1.1100. This is disputed by 66% of the experts, 25% of the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H4. They believe that the pair will move sideways for some time, push off resistance at 1.1000, then break through support at 1.0900 and return to the values of the end of November. The first support is 1.0700, the next one is 100 points lower;
- as for GBP/USD, 80% of the experts believe that the pair will be moving in the side channel within 1.4900-1.5250 with the pivot point at 1.5000. However, most indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 disagree. According to their forecast, the pair will move in two waves, first reaching 1.5440 (followed by a roll down to 1.5300) and then 1.5500. Considering upcoming Christmas holidays, the end of the second wave can be expected in January;
- when drawing USD/JPY’s future movement, all indicators point downwards. Most analysts believe that 120.00 will be a very strong support level, bouncing off which the pair will go to resistance at 122.20 and possibly even higher to 123.20;
- all indicators on H4 show a fall for USD/CHF but on larger timeframes (D1 and W1) two-thirds of the indicators already point upward. As for the analysts, 30% reckon that USD/CHF hasn’t yet reached the bottom of 0.9650-0.9675. At the same time, 87% of the analysts agree that in the longer term, the pair should return to values above 1.0000. Thus, graphical analysis on D1 gives the pair two weeks to make it to 1.0250, with adjustments for the holiday season.

All forecasts may be subject to change as important economic data are released in the middle of the coming week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 21-25 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the scenario for EUR/USD, backed by most analysts and the minority of the indicators, started to pan out. The pair spent some time in a sideways trend, broke through support at 1.0900 and went down. However, that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the pair didn’t reach support at 1.0700, stopping 150 points higher;
- the experts suggested that GBP/USD would be moving in a sideways channel of 1.4900-1.5250. It did happen – the pair pushed off the top boundary of the channel on Monday, went down decisively and came to a standstill at the bottom boundary of 1.4893 Friday night;
- the analysts were right about USD/JPY. In their opinion, the level of 120.00 was supposed to become very strong support, pushing off which the pair was to surge to resistance at 122.20 and then to 123.20. The latter level was reached on Friday thanks to the Bank of Japan's decision about its interest rate;
- there were varied opinions regarding USD/CHF again – some experts and indicators voted for a rise while others for a fall. The pair did just that – first, it went up a little, then dropped, then rose again and ended up 100 points higher in one week, although it doesn’t qualify yet as a full-on upward reversal.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summarizing the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- most experts, with the indicators staying neutral, continue to insist on EUR/USD’s return to the values of the second half of November. At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 elaborates that the pair may first try to break resistance at 1.0900 but after one or two unsuccessful attempts it will go down to support at 1.0700. The next support is 100 points lower;
- as for GBP/USD, all indicators clearly point downward. Being aware of the upcoming Christmas holidays unlike the indicators, the analysts predict the pair will transition into a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680-1.5000 with a 1.4890 pivot point. Graphical analysis on D1 supports them and indicates further bearish sentiment;
- the experts and graphical analysis on H4 reckon that USD/JPY will move sideways within 120.30-122.20. At the same time, the indicators on H4 and D1 point to the bears’ upper hand and insist that the pair won’t be able to break even the first resistance at 121.70;
- the general forecast for USD/CHF remains the same – back to around 1.0000. The experts, the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis agree with this. The immediate target is resistance at 1.0100. The next resistance is around 1.0150, support remains at 0.9800.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 28-31 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s predictions:
- graphical analysis warned that EUR/USD would first try to break through resistance around 1.0900 and go down after a couple of unsuccessful attempts. The chart shows that there were three such attempts actually, and one of them appeared to almost reach the target. However, all the efforts ended up futile, and the pair saw Christmas at 1.0950 resistance;
- the analysts were right saying that GBP/USD would enter a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680-1.5000 with a 1.4890 pivot point and bearish sentiment at the beginning of the week. The forecast panned out – a brief clash between the bears and the bulls around the pivot point was decisively won by the former, and the pair crashed by 100 points. However, it quickly returned to the pivot point and rose even higher – to the top boundary of the said corridor;
- the forecast for USD/JPY proved correct. As expected, the bears won in this case. The pair couldn’t even break through the first resistance at 121.70 and went down to the bottom boundary of the corridor at 120.30 where it stayed until market closure;
- the USD/CHF pair gave the impression that Swiss bankers closed down for the holidays – the pair went neither up nor down but remained at the pivot point of the past 3 weeks, i.e. 0.9900.

Forecast for the Coming Week
It has to be noted that all analysts are off for the holidays, and thus forecasts will be based on graphical and technical analysis for the time being:
- as for EUR/USD, all indicators on H4 and 72% of them on D1 point strictly upward. The remaining indicators and graphical analysis, supported by the bears, persistently push the pair down. The end of the week will show which scenario is right. However, the pair is quite likely to stay within 1.0800-1.1000 till the end of 2015;
- graphical analysis and 50% of the indicators on H4 as well as 17% of the indicators on D1 point to GBP/USD’s rise to resistance at 1.5040. The rest of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claim that the pair will go down to support at 1.4740 with strong resistance at 1.4930. As the week starts precisely from this level, it should be clearer on Monday which of the trends will prevail in the coming days;
- all indicators point downward for USD/JPY. However, graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 indicates that the pair will try to recover last week’s losses – first, it will return to resistance at 121.15, then rebound to support at 120.25 and again go up to 121.45;
- according to graphical analysis, 0.9850 will become support for USD/CHF. The pair will move up from there – first to 1.0000 and then to its main target of 1.0100, turning 1.0000 into support. The indicators differ here, though – all of them on H4 and 67% on D1 vote for USD/CHF’s fall. If the pair drops below the support level of 0.9850, it will hit the bottom around 0.9800 very quickly.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 4-8 January 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- despite the differences between the indicators and graphical analysis, it was suggested that EUR/USD would hold out in the range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 until the very end of 2015. The forecast panned out as the pair rose to 1.0990 on Monday and dropped to 1.0850 on 31 December 2015;
- there were differing opinions about GBP/USD as well. With that, 50% of the indicators on H4 and 83% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claimed that 1.4930 would be too strong of resistance and the pair would go down to support at 1.4740. This forecast also proved 100% correct – GBP/USD went down at once and saw in the new year at 1.4733;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was multiple fluctuations in the range of 120.25-121.45. It did transpire, although the oscillations were not as large as expected – the pair bounced off the said support range a few times but never managed to get over 120.65;
- graphical analysis indicated that 0.9850 would become support for USD/CHF and the pair would move up from there to the landmark of 1.0000, which worked out 100%.

For a second week in a row, only technical and graphical analysis has been used for the forecasts as all leading analysts are still on holidays. However, the review above shows that one may do without their advice just as well – the precision of the forecasts only improves :)

Forecast for the upcoming week:
- as for EUR/USD, 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1 and graphical analysis on the daily interval confidently show that the pair will continue to fall to support at 1.0515 or somewhat further to the March low of 1.0450. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 warns that before starting the fall, the pair can briefly rise to resistance at 1.0900;
- graphical analysis on all time frames indicates that early in the week GBP/USD should rise to 1.4800 and then by another 100-150 points. After this, the pair will move downward to last April’s low of 1.4555. However, this fall is not expected until mid-January;
- for USD/JPY, both indicators and graphical analysis on H4 imply some advantage for the bears. According to their readings, the pair will continue to move down but insignificantly – to support at 119.70. The main resistance will be 120.40;
- all indicators point upwards for USD/CHF. Graphical analysis predicts the pair will rise to 1.0700 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 11-15 January 2016

First, about the forecast for the past week:
- the forecast for EUR/USD was fully implemented during the first half of the week. According to graphical analysis, the pair first rose to resistance at 1.0900 and then went down, losing 200 points quite quickly. After that, considering the situation on stock markets, the pair returned to 1.0925, recovering the same 200 points;
- it was assumed that after a certain rise, GBP/USD should reach a low of 1.4555 by mid-January. Nonetheless, this happened a week earlier as the pair arrived there last Friday;
- the forecast for USD/JPY turned out correct only in terms of the trend direction. Both indicators and graphical analysis implied some advantage for the bears but no one expected that it would be so big – instead of the expected 70-100 points, the dollar lost all 300 points;
- the prediction for USD/CHF was also 100% correct in regards to the trend direction. The pair was supposed to rise to 1.0700 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level. However, developments on stock markets sharply increased the pair’s volatility, and, as a result, it was able to get up to 1.0123 and then went down to support at 0.9923.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- on their return from holidays, the analysts predict a sideways trend for EUR/USD in a 1.0750-1.1000 range. Graphical analysis on H1 agrees with this, predicting first a rebound from the upper boundary, a drop and again a return to the upper levels of the range. On larger timeframes, graphical analysis of D1 and 67% of the indicators on W1 continue to insist on the pair's drop at least to around 1.0450-1.0515 within 10-14 days;
- it’s quite clear that all indicators point downward for GBP/USD. However, graphical analysis on all timeframes and most experts agree that the pair has already reached its local bottom and will be oscillating around a 1.4500 pivot point during the week. The main support is at 1.4450, resistance – 1.4600;
- according to the analysts and the readings of graphical analysis, the USD/JPY pair has also hit its local low and is expected to enter a sideways trend in a 117.20-119.50 range. The pivot point will be at 117.90, and, in line with graphical analysis on H4, the pair should rise over this level in the first half of the week and drop to last Friday’s values by the end of the week;
- the scenario of the second half of December may replay for USD/CHF. At least, it’s echoed by the analysts as well as the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. According to this forecast, the pair will be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. In the short run, graphical analysis on H4 expects the pair to rebound from support at 0.9920 and move to resistance at 1.0015, after which the pair should go down again, bounce off the said support level and try to break through resistance in an effort to reach 1.0050.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 18-22 January 2016

For starters, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD panned out almost fully – according to the experts and graphical analysis on H1, the pair was supposed to be in a sideways trend, rebound from the upper boundary of the channel early in the week, then drop and return to the upper boundary;
- in their dispute with the analysts, the indicators turned out to be right when they clearly pointed to GBP/USD’s further fall;
- the experts based their forecast for USD/JPY on the fact that the pair had reached its local minimum and should enter a sideways trend, which did happen. However, on Monday and Friday, the pair made two attempts to break through support at 117.20. The first attempt failed, and it is too early to talk about the outcome of the second one;
- on Monday, after breaking through support at 0.9920, USD/CHF tried to go down to the next level of 0.9800 but failed. As predicted by graphical analysis, the pair rose to the upper boundary of the range – 1.0100. On reaching it, in accord with the experts’ opinion, the pair returned to its main level of the last few months 1.0000 where it wrapped up the week.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 75% of the indicators vote for the pair’s rise while most exerts support bearish sentiment. In line with the latter, graphical analysis on D1 draws a further downward tunnel and indicates that in the first half of the week, the pair will go down to the lower boundary of ​​1.0650 and then bounce off to the upper boundary at 1.0900. At the same time, a look further down the tunnel shows that it finishes at last year’s low of 1.0450. The pair may reach this level already by the end of this month;
- the GBP/USD pair is replaying last week’s scenario as both experts and graphic analysis cannot wait to see a rebound at least up to 1.4370 (H1) while larger timeframes show bigger rebounds – 1.4520 on H4 and 1.4700 on D1. However, all indicators still insist on a continuing downtrend. Moreover, the W1 chart clearly shows that there’s room for the pair to fall – it’s at the low of May 2010 now but there is still the low of January 2009 at 1.3500, which may become the next target;
- according to 65% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4, next week USD/JPY is facing a slight correction with the transition to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. The indicators on H4 and D1 echo this;
- last week’s forecast was that USD/CHF would be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. The same scenario stands for this week, although there’re differences as to the sequence of these fluctuations. Thus, the indicators on H1 are neutral, on H4 they side with the bears whereas on D1 they root for the bulls. Graphical analysis on H1 points to a rise to 1.01125 first and then a return to 1.0020. After that, according to the indicators on H4, USD/CHF will go down to support at 0.9870, rebound and come back to early January’s highs. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts quite a fast rise to 1.02500, followed by a drop to a 1.0000 pivot point.

Roman Butko, NordFX