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Rbi to Cut Rates by 25bps: Credit Agricole



There is a consensus call that the RBI will cut rates by 25bps as inflation is on track to significantly undershoot its target for the year. Moreover, falling global oil prices will put further downward pressure on inflation readings in the near term. "We would expect G-Sec and equity prices to rise while INR OIS rates to fall after such decision. As a rate cut would improve growth outlook and bring in portfolio capital inflows, the INR should react positively", quoted Credit Agricole in a report to its clients.

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Russia Forecasts a Recession in 2015, Signaling a Toll from Sanctions and Oil Prices - Nyt



The Ministry of Economic Development, which publishes the government's economic outlook, on Tuesday revised its forecast for 2015 to show a contraction of 0.8 percent, compared with a previous projection of 1.2 percent growth. The combination of sanctions and plummeting oil prices is catching up with Russia's economy, wobbly in the best of times because of its heavy reliance on commodity exports. In the face of the weakness, the ruble has been in a free fall, driven by Russians' fears of economic isolation and their eagerness to change rubles into dollars or euros to move wealth out of the country. The ruble opened at 52 to the dollar and slipped to around 53 in trading on Tuesday. So far this year, the ruble has fallen more than 40 percent against the dollar.

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Aud/usd Higher After Better Aus Retail Sales Data



Aus Retail Sales has surprised to the upside and pushedAUD/USD above 0.8420 Hourly resistance is at 0.8430 with break targeting 0.8470 Aus trade numbers also came in a bit better and the market is short

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Usd/myr to Open Around 3.4500



Pair could test at 3.4570, 2010 high on the cards USD/MYR implieds shot up to 3.4660 overnight, as oil prices extend fall 1 month NDFs soared to 3.4760 high, closed at 3.4605-25 in NY USD/MYR to open around 3.4500, expect more from BNM to check volatility

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Gold slips As Strong Dollar, Weak Oil Dulling Gold Appeal As a Hedge



Spot gold had slipped 0.2 percent to $1,200.26 an ounce by 0036 GMT. Gold jumped more than 1 percent on Monday on a brief surge of late-day technical buying as it breached the $1,200-per-ounce level long after the U.S. dollar dropped from a more than five-year high. But the dollar recovered on Tuesday and was higher against a basket of major currencies. Strong US data and higher rates could provide a further boost to the dollar and hurt non-interest-bearing bullion.

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Usd/cny Trades to Remain Choppy, Bullish Bias Intact



Plunge in stock markets, liquidity probably on govt's new bond rules dominate Expect the repo and bond yield curves to continue higher PBOC likely to keep fix low, in line with lower dollars overnight USD/CNY and USD/CNH risks further squeeze above 3.20 Nov CPI and PPI eyed, exp 1.6%y/y and -2.4%y/y respectively

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Usd/idr Firm Above 12300



Protests for min wage increase ongoing in Jakarta, peaceful so far Risk fall, global stocks dump, strong corporate year-end USD demand pressure IDR USD/IDR to move back above 12350, resistance zone between 12380-12400 NDFs traded 12420-12445 overnight, closed at 12435-12450 in NY No change in BI policy rates expected, currently at 7.75%

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Abe Looks Set to Reaffirm His Authority



Japan's lower house election takes place on 14 December, just two years after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in December 2012. Standard Chartered Research predicts: We expect the ruling coalition to hold its super-majority in the lower house election Budget compilation and reforms will be the next focus for the new government If the ruling party loses the election, there will be considerable uncertainty ahead

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New Zealand Services Sector Slows In November



The services sector in New Zealand continued to expand in November, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Business NZ revealed on Monday with a PMI of 54.8. That's down from 57.0 in October, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. By region, the index for the Northern region came in at 55.5, while the Central region was at 57.1, Canterbury was at 56.8 and Otago came in at 65.3.

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Aud/usd Little changed After Rba Minutes Similar to Statement




RBA acknowledged market expectations of easing in 2015 But gave no indication they agree with those expectations View that lower AUD needed to balance economy same as statement Market will look ahead to HSBC Flash China PMI at 01:45 GMT

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