Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

January 26. The oil market has good growth potential

Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday: Brent has reached $56 per barrel, WTI – $53,25. At the same time, the potential for further strengthening remains.

Some days earlier the information appeared that Iraq plans to reduce oil production to 3.6 million barrels per day, which will be compensation for unfair fulfillment of the terms of the OPEC + deal in 2020. And if Iraq keeps its promises, then the volume of production in the country will decline to the lowest level since 2015.

An additional factor in the rise in oil prices may be the interruptions in exports in Libya, caused by delays in the payment of salaries to the security personnel of the oil facilities. Before these conflicts, Libya saw a rapid recovery in oil production: in December, production reached 1.2 million barrels per day, while in August production volumes were less than 100 thousand barrels per day.

Also, market participants continue to monitor the spread of Covid-19 in the world and the progress of negotiations on new economic stimulus in the United States. US President Joe Biden is pushing for the early adoption of a new $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package. The inflow of new money into the US economy will put pressure on the dollar, which, in turn, will act as a factor supporting Brent quotes.

January 27. Biden considers Nord Stream-2 a bad deal for Europe

US President Joe Biden said that he considers the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project a bad deal for Europe and intends to revise the restrictions adopted by Congress under Donald Trump.

These sanctions were included in the US annual defense budget (NDAA) and, according to them, the restrictions apply to any company that helps Gazprom lay a pipeline, insure ships, certify and repair equipment. The Trump administration has argued that the project will strengthen the economic and political influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Europe.

The new president is also opposed to further construction of the gas pipeline. Perhaps the new restrictions will be even stricter. As a reminder, at present Russia has resumed the implementation of Nord Stream 2 after foreign pipelayers left the project due to the threat of US sanctions.

January 29. Bitcoin rose after Elon Musk's tweet

According to the trading data, the growth of bitcoin on Friday accelerated sharply, exceeding the $38 mark. The growth driver was the publication of Elon Musk on his Twitter page, where the entrepreneur mentioned bitcoin, adding the hashtag «bitcoin».

Also, the head of Tesla and SpaceX wrote a separate message: «In retrospect, it was inevitable.»

As a result, the rate of the first cryptocurrency immediately skyrocketed from $32 thousand to $38 thousand, stabilizing slightly during the day at $37 thousand.Thus, in about an hour, the price of bitcoin increased by more than 17%.

A few days earlier, Elon Musk «boosted» another cryptocurrency – previously little-known Dogecoin. It skyrocketed in value by more than 800% after Musk's «joke» mention on his Twitter account.

February 01. Silver prices skyrocket to 8-year highs

Silver prices have jumped 16% over the past three trading sessions. The current quotation of the asset is $30.133 per ounce, which is a new high since February 2013.

Experts point out that the rush for silver may have emerged after a message appeared last week urging people to invest in silver on the private trader community on Reddit (a social news site). Forum participants decided to raise the price of the metal after the success with the shares of the GameStop company and the Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency.

Silver began to rise last week amid calls from traders to buy the metal to put pressure on banks trying to capitalize on its price decline. And on January 29, the net capital inflow to IShares Silver Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by silver, reached an unprecedented amount of $944 million.

Investor interest in silver has also led to a surge in the value of silver-mining companies and ETFs that are pegged to silver. So the securities of the silver mining corporation First Majestic Silver soared by 30% in the last two trading sessions.

February 03. The number of jobs in the private sector in the United States in January grew better than expected

According to a press release from the analytical company Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the number of jobs in private companies in the United States in January increased by 174,000. Analysts predicted an increase in the indicator by only 49 thousand.

The December figure was revised down to a decrease of 78 thousand from a decrease of 123 thousand.

In the US small business, the number of jobs in January increased by 51 thousand, in medium-sized companies (with a staff of 50-499 people) – by 84 thousand, and large companies increased their staff by 39 thousand jobs.

In the service sector, the number of jobs increased by 156 thousand, in the production of goods – by 19 thousand. At the same time, the figure for private construction companies in the country in January increased by 18 thousand, in the manufacturing sector – by 1 thousand.

February 04. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week fell by 33 thousand

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week fell by 33 thousand compared with the revised figure of the previous week – to 779 thousand applications. Analysts predicted a decrease in the number of applications by only 17 thousand, to 830 thousand.

At the same time, the average number of initial applications over the past four weeks decreased by 1.25 thousand from the revised figure – to 848.25 thousand. The initial figure was revised downwards – to 849.5 thousand from 868 thousand.

The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 193 thousand from the revised figure of the previous week, to 4.592 million. The previous week's figure was revised to 4.785 million from 4.771 million.

February 05. Oil market hits annual high

The oil market continues its bullish rally, reaching $59.70 per barrel. The last time the quotes were at similar levels was in January 2020.

The main support for oil prices is provided by the successful implementation of the terms of the deal to reduce oil production by OPEC + countries. On Wednesday, a meeting of the OPEC + Monitoring Committee took place, at which it was noted that the agreement was fulfilled by 101%. On the side of buyers are also data on changes in US oil reserves from the EIA - stocks of raw materials in the country continue to decline for the third week in a row.

Further driving up the oil market are signs that the coronavirus pandemic is on the wane as infections, hospitalizations and deaths have been steadily declining globally over the past two or three weeks.

At the same time, market participants ignored the annual report of the US Department of Energy with pessimistic forecasts for a recovery in demand. The EIA noted that aggregate energy consumption in the United States could return to 2019 levels only by 2029, and if the pace of economic recovery remains low, then even by 2050.

February 09. Elon Musk once again contributed to the historical growth of bitcoin

The cost of bitcoin for the first time exceeded the $48 thousand mark today. The rapid growth was noted after Tesla's announcement of the acquisition of cryptocurrency for $1.5 billion (1.2 billion euros) and its readiness to continue to accept it as payment for electric vehicles. The increase since the beginning of the year was about 61%, and since the beginning of the day – by 2.5%.

Investors expect BlackRock Inc. to join the list of companies that invest in or own Bitcoin soon. Is an international investment corporation and American tech giant Square Inc.

The systematic growth of bitcoin began in the fall of 2020, it remained until mid-January 2021. After the cryptocurrency reached a record high of $40 thousand, the rate began to gradually fall and stayed in the region of $30-35.

Analysts do not have a general prediction of what will happen with Bitcoin next. Some believe that the cryptocurrency was overvalued at the level of the exchange rate of $30 thousand, while others predict growth up to several hundred thousand dollars.

February 10. Oil continues to break records

Oil continues to break records, reaching $61.50 a barrel. Brent rose in price for the ninth session in a row, WTI – for the eighth. The prices were supported by the forecast of the US Department of Energy, according to which in 2021 world oil demand will amount to 97.67 million barrels per day, and world supply – 97.29 million bpd.

As a result, this year the market may no longer face an excess, but a shortage of oil in the amount of 380 thousand bpd. In 2022, according to the estimates of the US Department of Energy, the oil supply deficit may increase to 400 thousand bpd.

Today, market participants are awaiting the publication of the US Department of Energy's report on energy reserves in the country. Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced a decline in oil reserves by 3.5 million barrels per week. Analysts expect the Energy Ministry data to show a 2.7 million barrels drop in US crude inventories.

An additional positive for the oil market is a slight improvement in the epidemiological situation in the world. Ongoing vaccinations, declining COVID-19 incidence, and expectations for a new stimulus package in the US are improving the outlook for demand.

February 15. US Senate acquits Trump at impeachment trial

The Senate of the US Congress, during its meeting, acquitted former President Donald Trump in the framework of impeachment. Trump is known to have been charged with inciting a crowd to attack the Capitol last month.

57 senators voted for impeachment, while 43 voted against. 67 votes out of 100 were required for the indictment. Thus, the initiative did not receive the required number of votes. Earlier, many Americans (54% of respondents) said that Trump should stop participating in the country's political life.

The second process of impeachment against the former head of the White House began in the Senate on February 9. It was the first time in the United States that an attempt to remove a state leader from office after the end of the presidential term was made.

The first attempt at impeachment was made back in 2019, but the Senate acquitted the president in early 2020. Then the investigation was launched in connection with the statement of an anonymous informant that President Trump in July 2019 put pressure on President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in his own personal and political interests.