My Manual Trades Blog - Justlooking

[justlooking]

Hi guys,

As you have seen in my forexlexus and fapturbo threads I was throwing in manual trades now and then. But as this side of my trading is getting more serious I would like to start here a seperate thread to show you what I am doing, with the goal that you can learn yourself as well and show you this is much better then all these scalping robots that are coming out every week or so. No hype just plain facts, try to understand what I am doing and try yourself.

I have signed up with a very educational Blog hosted by a professional full time day trader (he actually makes his living from daytrading forex.. so it IS possible guys!). He teaches all kinds of methods that can be used in all kind of different market conditions.. and what is important.. He does NOT use scalping, Actually he only enters trades when he can see potential of 40-50 pips or more (a LOT more!)

last week I have been seriously manual trading using his techniques and I made about 150-200 pips profit this week, where the Robots did have a difficult time, due to news break outs and indecision in the markets.

My biggest profit was 193 pips out of one trade on GBPJPY. This pair was squeezed into a triangle the last three weeks, so it had to give someday, and it did thursday.. I catched the ride and made this profit.. What I hope for that this pair pulls back to about halfway its move of friday, wait for signs it goes down again and get in for another ride to the downside.

Another technique that works pretty well is the london break out from the asian range. Look for a pair with a very small range during the asian session between 21GMT and 06GMT, determine the high and low of this range. Then wait for break out and close above or below the range, then wait for pullback and enter the trade (long when break above, short when break below) A very easy but effective method, stops can be very small so risk is limited as well. Won about 100 pips using this, but also stopped out a few times.

All in all I made about 300 pips last week ($153 in my case, I have still a very small account), fapturbo never did that!

Ok, I will show with screenshots later what I do starting monday.

Oh BTW, I would appreciate any comments, tips, whatever.. if you have questions, ask them, maybe I can help.

[justlooking]

Hmm... I am allready start to confusing you! :)

I was writing above post in steps, and now I see first I say 150-200, but at the end I made 300 pips.. well that last figure of 300 is correct. You see I am trading 0.05 lots per trade, which is about 50 cents per pip (depending a little on the pair that is traded).

[justlooking]

Hi Guys,

To give you a heads up where I am looking at, at the moment:

GBPJPY as said had a triangle break out thursday and fell about 300 pips or so. I closed my trade at 193 pips profit (I entered after it had broken and closed below the 200ema (exponential moving average) at the 4H chart).. Set a trap to enter short again at 50% fibornachi pull back which is about 147.50..It did pull back to exactly 50% on friday as well, so big chance it does again. Potential to go down another 200 pips or more!

EURUSD, set a trap to bounce of the 1.4820/lower trendline again, set my stop loss well below the 55EMA on the daily, which it has not broken since april! Friday i did set it too sharp and was stopped out.

GBPUSD, tomorrow I decide what to do, depending on what it does during london open. It has fallen quite a bit friday, it could fall further but chances are 50/50 it will bounce back as well.

Eurgbp, riding a 200ema at the 4H it could go up or down, difficult to say, wait for clues at london open.

usdchf. Seems to get squeezed in a triangle similar to what GBPJPY was doing last week. daily movements are getting smaller and smaller, never broke and close the quite shallow upper trendline, where now also the 4H 200ema is running. At the moment it is going down nearing a 4H lowere trendline and 55ema.. If it clearly break and closes below these lines I will wait for a pull back to the 55ema and go short.

eurjpy has formed a nice channel on the 4H, but is right in the middle of it at the moment, wait for nearing the upper trendline and go short with a small stop 15-20 pips above these trendlines

I do set stop losses, but no take profit, I just let it run intill the 5ema and 8ema cross on the H1 chart. This prevents me to step out of good persisting trends that may go on for days on end! That I got out of the GBPJPY was because the 5ema was running over the 8 ema, it allmost crossed.. adding up it was the end of the week, I got out. Looking at the chart right now that was a good decision.

USDCAD shows signs getting squeezed into a triangle on the daily as well, but will take another 2 weeks to get interesting I think. For now it is in the middle of nowhere, have no idea where it should go tomorrow.

Eurocad, similar to USDCAD. but is at the top of its triangle at the moment, set a trap to short at 1.5920

Ok thats about it lets see how it all works out tomorrow.

[justlooking]

Hi guys!

One strategy that seems to work pretty well is the london break out on the GBPUSD (and some other pairs work as well).. It is very simple and when you practice, you will see you may win 7 out of 10 times, and with a stop loss of only 10-20% of the potential gain.. hmm not bad, and very effective!

I did it again today, and later in the day I utilized a bounce of the H1 200 EMA as well on this pair.

London break out works as follows:

Take a look at the Asian range, between 21:00GMT and 6:00GMT(next day), place horizontal lines at the high and low of the range on the M15 chart

Now wait for price break up or below the range (this can take between a few minutes to a few hours, if it had not break after 12GMT, forget it)..and very important. It must CLOSE outside the range..

Ok once closed outside the range, it will determine the direction we will go. If it close above the range, we will go long, short when below.

Now wait till the price comes back down AT or below/above the range line (here it does not have to close).. this is the sign to get in the trade.. What now very ofen happens is that price contimues to go in the direction we choose to go.. sometimes it wait for that a few candles, but lots of times it shoots up or down immediately(this is why you do not wait it to close). What I try to do is set a pending limit order to open at the range line, but often it pulls back immediately so I can wait till it is at the range or even pulled back a little inside the range, give you some pips extra.

Set the stop loss behind logical places it might pull back to, like fib levels, ema's bolinger bands and what not, also look at other time frames for clues, the H1 55 and 200 ema's seems to be important.

Now just manage the trade as you normally do (I set SL to break even after 30 pips profit). I will normally close when the 5 and 7 ema cross on the H1 chart, I do not set a take profit., but will move my stop loss close behind it at logical places like a few pips below/above forelast H1 low/high.

Attached a few screenshots showing my success with this.

Today I closed this trade at the H1 55 ema, because I suspected to bounce back down from here, as it has done quite a few times recently. In stead it contimued upto the H1 200ema, well I got in there on the way back down, which is at 30 pips profit at the moment.. So that is 90 pips profit on one day! Not bad huh? :)

Beside this I had 1 trap opened at GBPJPY (short), which has pulled back to the 50% fib of last weeks candle.. I had set the trap on the 50% of the friday candle, so it is at quite a bit of a draw down at the moment, but allready showing signs no to head back down, so I am quite confident I will be able to close it with a profit.. I set my SL quite wide on this one, as I know this pair can move huge distances sometimes.

EURCAD has done as I predicted BUT it missed my trap! by 4 pips only! Bummer, could have been a big one as it has come down 130 pips or so.

Eurusd traps set to 1.4820 to go long and at 1.5050 to go short, at the moment pushing to get back inside a trendchannel that has formed last weel on the H4, I might set the short trap a little closer to this line.. Also this pair seems to be forming a triangle

Another bummer was that USDCHF has broken its triangle in the middle of the night! So I was too late to ride this break out this morning (hence asian range way too wide for london break out strategy), now waiting to pull back/

eurgbp is still ranging near the 4H 200ema, it hasnt broken its asian range today. Will wait till it has made his mind up where to go. It could break back below the 200ema or finally bounce up. If it breaks up, it will probably do at london open tomorrow, and the you can apply above strategy on this pair as well. Note that range should be no more then 30 pips wide, otherwise it is not worth the risk.

Ok other pairs not much to say lets see what tomorrow brings.

Lots

[justlooking]

Hi guys, just closed the GBPUSD short wwith 70 pips profit, makes total of 130 pips today.. what a way to start the week!

GBPJPY has turned into profit as well, but keep it open till tomorrow.

Lots

[justlooking]

GBPJPY hit my trailing stop, at only 13 pips profit last night.

Tried london break out, with USDCHF and GBPUSD. USDCHF did look good in the beginning but reversed and hit trailing stop at 4 pips profit, tried a bounce up from the 15M 200ema later, but did not work, hit stop loss of 15 pips. GBPUSD also moved good first, but met resistance at the H1 55ema, spiked back down and hit trailing stop at 12 pips profit.

I think I should stop using trailing stops, as I am stopped out three times today on trades that would have turned more positive in the end.

No more trading for today. Set another trap on GBPUSD, a little above double bottom, where 1.6500 psych. support level AND 4H 200EMA coincides., but I dont think it will fire today.. just like the other traps i set on eurcad (near upper trendline), eurusd (moved down to 1.4990, near 1.5000 psych level)

Lots

[justlooking]

Hi guys,

A short update.

with a few SL on eurusd and usdcf, in the end came out break even on tuesday.

Yesterday Many london breaks you could have ride if on the ball with it as thepull backs were small and quick. If you only took two, you could have made 100-150 pips only by this strategy.. I missed them all, because I was too late. I did manage to have 80 pips profit on a GBPJPY short after the large pull back of monday. Closed it before going to bed, being concerned it would do a pull back like monday.. but this time it did not and missed 100 pips because of that.

In the end got in a GBPJPY short again, after a small pull back, which is still open and at 120-150 pip profit at the moment.

It turns out GBPJPY is a great pair for me!

The trap on eurocad has fired, and at break even at the moment, it has been at 30 pips profit already, I expect it will fall again after hitting the trendline, because then the US markets open and probably he CAD gets stronger because of the feds news of yesterday they have changed their minds not to be really concerned about the USD decline.

On advise of an experienced trader opened a "long term" USDJPY long trade. Is at a big drawdown of 100+ pips at the moment.. lets hope BOJ will interfere and make the Yen gets weaker (strong Yen is bad for japanese export).

Also a eurusd long trade opened by Lexus, is at a drawdown at the moment.

My manual trading is much better ten the ea, if it does not get better I will turn it off for a while.

[justlooking]

I forgot about thanksgiving so the US and canadian markets did not open at all. The profit on eurcad vaporized and hit my stop loss.

The long on USDJPY has hit a large stop loss of 160 pips.. But the GBPJPY I had set a trailing stop before going to bed.. at that moment it starts to plumet like crazy!! Must be some weard news in Japan or so. It is now at a price it has not been since 1995!

The trade closed by the trailing stop at 259 pips!.. profit

Lexus had another bad trade as well, so all in all I lost a little today.. That big winner of the GBPJPY saved my account I guess.

Best is to leave the yens alone for a while, because these break outs are just crazy, they can equally go against you.

Tomorrow No London break outs as the moves have been too big allready because of that weard JPY move

I will not trade tomorrow because of thanksgiving the markets will not behave as they should. I will turn off lexus.

[justlooking]

Hi guys,

Here an update and look back of last week,

Last week my manual trades were up and down, just like the market, I lost big on the usdjpy and some smaller losses on gbpusd, eurcad and usdchf. My lucky trade of wednessday on GBPUSD saved my account with total of 303 pips profit on this pair,

Total gain in manual trades $87, or 153 pips of the past week.

Ok what about next week..

Well, we all heard about the news Dubai cant pay back their 60 billion dollar debt according to plan, and the US fed has said all of a sudden that a weak dollar isnt much of a concern to them anymore. The US and Canada had their thanksgiving hollidays, so the big shots there did not have a chance to react on this very important news, we did see the reaction on the yens, so we might see similar reaction on USD and CAD related pairs tomorrow, maybe a little less violent as they all had the long weekend to analyse and have a more realistic reaction then the asian countries last week..none the less expect some big moves monday..

A I have no idea wich way it will go, I will sit on my hands and wait the storm out... I wont keep on be so lucky as last week. Maybe one London break out tomorrow IF the range of this sundaynight isnt too wide (great chance it is). Beside this I have one trade open on USDCHF, I took a signal of one of my systems.. it is more long term so we will see what happens with that.

Also one trade open by lexus on GBPUSD, it had opened two, and I closed one manually just seconds before market close with 4 pips loss. This one open trade I had no time left to close it, it is now on break even.. lets hope the gaps are not too big so it jumps my stop loss, if the gap is the other way, I wont complain :)

I know I did tell you that I would turn of lexus, but the developper came back to us to tell us he had changed things again and removed the loosing eurusd EA. So I decided to keep it running.

So basically I wait it out, maye tuesday or even wednessday the markets have settled a bit so we can start looking at trade setups again.

[justlooking]

Hi guys,

Sorry I did not get back earlier, but I was very busy with other things.. trading done somewhat in between and during the early morning. Setting traps in the evening expecting them to fire the next day or during the night.

Past week was great for my manual trading, the Lexus robot failed me again (I turned it on again after malai said the robots have added filters now), but all in all I ended up 204 pips profit for the week.

How did it go?

Well, again on gbpjpy I had some excellent trades, on monday I won 100 pips again on this pair. During the coffeebreak at work I discovered a very obvious triangle on the gbpjpy 15M chart, I did set a trap to catch a break to the downside. Then I had to attend a meeting so I could not watch the trade.. but returning at my desk after an hour i discovered the trade had worked brilliantly and closed with 99 pips profit!

In the morning I allready had great success with the london break out method on eurgbp and on top of that Lex also did have a great day. So the start of the week was great!

Next day, tuesday, I had a modest trading day, not much going on. London break out I skipped because I was roo late.. A trap I had set on eurjpy to bounce off a 200 ema, did work but dragged on all day, it shortly broke down to my first target, but the second half of my trade was taken out at break even..+48 pips

Wednessday was bad.. stop loss hit on two of my london break out setups, -40 pips, beside that lex had a very bad day, -214 pips.. So I skipped the rest of the day.. but set traps for the following day at eurjpy, usdjpy and gbpjpy again, the first two to bounce of upper trendlines that have held for weeks, the second a bounce of a convergence of ema's and 50% pull back fiblevels.

Thursday, al JPY traps have fired, but the eurjpy and usdjpy failed to take profit because it has decided to firmly break out of the trendlines. BUT the GBPJPY has worked brilliantly again!. closed it manually when reaching a 200 ema at 109 pips! This was thursday night and decided that was my last trade of the week. Friday was such a notorious NFP news friday, when usd related pairs do the most silly things in forex, so better not to trade.

So what were the results for this week?

Stats this week, manual trades only:
5 winning trades, $241.70, 314 pips
4 loosing trades, -$59,72, -110 pips

TOTAL for the week 29/11-4/12: +$181,98, +204 pips
TOTAL Since 16/11: +$423, +688 pips

Not bad if you ask me, not bad at all!