The Euro remains in defensive since posting fresh seven-week high at 1.2588 last week, with one-month rally being backed by hopes of ECB’s action. The initial strength may be further losing momentum, as the single currency slips below psychological 1.2500 level. Today’s weakness dipped to 1.2464, Fib 38.2% of near-term 1.2254/1.2588 rally, just ahead of 1.2440/30 break point, also near 50% retracement and 55 day EMA, loss of which would spark further weakness. Negative near-term studies keep the downside favored, as immediate barrier at 1.2500 stays impact. Only lift above 1.2534, yesterday’s high, would delay bears.

Res: 1.2500, 1.2534, 1.2560, 1.2588
Sup: 1.2464, 1.2441, 1.2430, 1.2406


The pair continues to trend lower, as a part of near-term corrective pullback off 1.5911, last week’s high. The slide touched important 1.5750/40 zone, where previous high / Fib 38.2% of 1.5489/1.5911 upleg and bull trendline off 1.5489 lie, as initial support and previous range top at 1.5770 zone has been lost. Potential break below 1.5740 would be seen as a trigger for stronger reversal and keep the upside targets sidelined, in favor of test of 1.5715/00, 200 day MA / 50% retracement, as near-term technicals remain weak. Immediate resistance lies at 1.5800, reinforced by descending 55 day EMA, while only regain of 1.5830 zone would provide relief.

Res: 1.5800, 1.5830, 1.5850, 1.5868
Sup: 1.5753, 1.5740, 1.5715, 1.5700


The near-term price action is running out of steam, as initial target at 79.00 stays intact, after recovery rally being capped at 78.80 zone, where 55 day EMA limited the upside. Fresh slide under bull trendline off 78.27 low, despite dips being contained at initial 78.45 support, sees more risk towards the downside, as near-term structure remains weak. Loss of 78.44/36 to expose 78.00 base for retest, while only lift above 79.00 would be a signal of further recovery towards 79.65 peak.

Res: 78.70, 78.83, 78.96, 79.12
Sup: 78.44, 78.35, 78.27, 78.15


Corrective rally off 0.9537, 23 Aug low, extends gains to 0.9634 so far, with positive near-term structure seeing potential for test of important 0.9660 zone, 22 Aug lower high/ 55 day EMA and 50% retracement of 0.9766/0.9537 downleg, break above which to confirm near-term base and open way for stronger recovery towards 0.9700, next target. However, negative larger picture, sees the current move as corrective part of larger downtrend from 0.9970 and unless firm break above 0.9700 zone, also bear-trendline off 0.9970, is seen, risk of lower top and fresh weakness, remains high.

Res: 0.9634, 0.9655, 0.9679, 0.9700
Sup: 0.9610, 0.9580, 0.9557, 0.9537