Thread: NordFX - ECN/STP, MT4, SR, Multiterminal broker

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 24-28 April 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- In the opinion of almost half of the experts (40%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, the pair EUR/USD, which has been moving in the medium-term rising channel that began in December 2016, had been expected to rise to 1.0690, and then by yet another 130 points. It turned out that the pair indeed immediately went northwards, starting from Monday; on Tuesday, it broke through the resistance at 1.0690 and, having turned it into a support level, the pair reached 1.0780. After this, the bulls’ energy dried up, and the pair returned to the 1.0690 zone by the end of the week’s session;

- A rebound had been expected for GBP/USD. Most analysts, supported by oscillators and trend indicators, had been inclined towards the view that the pair’s upward propulsion had not yet been exhausted and that it could reach the height of 1.2705. Not many expected the powerful support British Prime Minister Teresa May gave the bulls in announcing snap parliamentary elections. Because of such support, the pair soared almost 400 points, only stopping at 1.2904. After that, it turned and slowly descended to the strong Pivot level which the pair has been fluctuating since June 2016;

- USD/JPY. Here there was a discrepancy between the weekly and the medium-term forecasts: the former pointed southwards, the latter to the north. As a result, the pair moved in the side channel 108.10 -109.20 for almost the entire week, dominated slightly by bullish trends. It was the bulls who tried to break the upper boundary of this channel at the end of the week. However, this breakthrough was unsuccessful, since, having risen by only 30 points, the pair quickly returned to the sideways corridor;

- Unlike EUR/USD, USD/CHF reacted rather violently to the British Prime Minister’s announcement. Whilst half of the experts along with the oscillators had expected its fall to the level of 0.9980, in reality the local minimum ended up being 40 points lower. However, the pair "changed its mind" afterwards and returned to where the analysts had indicated: the zone 0.9980.

***

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- The ECB and the Bank of Japan rate decisions should prove unsurprising. The presidential elections in France, however, may cause increased volatility. It is also possible, though, that there will be no sharp exchange rate jumps, especially if the vote reaches the second round. Uncertainty related to these elections has led to uncertainty in experts’ opinions. Thus, in giving their weekly forecast for EUR/USD, one third of them thought the pair will grow, one third has spoken of a fall and one third of a sideways trend. If we now turn to the medium-term forecast, here already 65% ​​of experts, supported by graphical analysis, vote for the pair falling, indicating 1.0500 and 1.0350 as target levels. An alternative view is represented by 35% of analysts and indicators on D1, according to which the pair must return to the highs of February-March 2017;

- In the medium term, nearly 85% of experts continue to expect GBP/USD to fall (support levels are 1.2575, 1.2490, 1.2365). As for the immediate future, the situation is different: only 30% of analysts vote for its fall. The others expect it to return to the previous week’s highs and to fix in the 1.2900-1.3000 area. Both graphical analysis on H4, and indicators on D1 agree with this prospect. Only 10% of oscillators yet indicate that the pair is overbought;

- There still remains an obvious discrepancy between the week-long and medium-term forecasts for USD/JPY as well. So, if in the short term 60% of analysts speak about its fall, the monthly and quarterly forecasts are oriented northwards. The targets are the same: 112.00 and 113.55. As for technical analysis, graphical analysis and oscillators on H4 show the continuation of the pair's lateral movement in the 108.30-109.50 channel;

- Regarding USD/CHF, the battle here is between experts and indicators. 80% of analysts believe that the pair is sure to grow to the 1.0000-1.0100 zone, and 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 expect it to drop. A compromise is offered by graphical analysis, which points first to the growth of the pair to 1.0050 and then to its fall to the local minimum of 0.9940.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 01 - 05 May 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- When giving the forecast for EUR/USD, 35% of experts and indicators on D1 insisted that it should return to the highs of February and March 2017. This is what happened in response to the first round of the French presidential elections. Having established an impressive gap at the opening of the weekly session, the pair rose to 1.0900, where it spent the whole week, turning this level into a Power Point;

- after an inspiring leap upwards on 18 March, GBP/USD reacted calmly to the elections in France: there were no gaps and, instead, there was a smooth increase by 180 points during the week. The roots of this growth are at the support at 1.2775, which used to be the upper limit of six-month long side channel;

- The French elections tsunami has reached the Japanese islands and has swept USD/JPY towards a strong medium-term support / resistance level around ​​111.60. It should be noted that analysts have long expected the growth of the pair to 112.00, to which it came very close: it checked out on Wednesday at the height of 111.77;

- The gap at the beginning of the week gave additional strength to the bears. Hence, the pair USD/CHF continued its downward trend, which began on April 10. The pair fell by almost 100 points, reaching the local bottom at 0.9893, and then it turned and finished the week at the level of 0.9950.

***

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- Regarding the indicators, in predicting the future of the EUR/USD, more than 80% of them are oriented northwards, pointing to 1.1120 as the target height. However, one third of oscillators on D1 have already indicated that the pair is overbought. Expert opinions regarding its nearest future are almost equally divided: 35% foresee the growth of the pair, 30% anticipate its fall and 35% predict a sideways trend. But in the medium term, the picture is quite different: here, 80% of experts vote for the fall of the pair to an initial support 1.0680 and a subsequent one of 1.0570;

- GBP/USD. It is for the second week running that the pair moves in the corridor that separates the two side channels: the upper one of July-October 2016, and lower one of October 2016 - April 2017. 65% of the experts believe that the pair will be unable to overcome the resistance of 1.3055 and will return to the channel’s lower boundary as early as in the first half of May. Support levels are 1.2570, 1.2375 and 1.2130. An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of analysts who predict that the immediate goals for the pair are 1.3370 and 1.3445. As for the graphical analysis, on H4 it points to a sideways trend in the range of 1.2775-1.3055;

- USD/JPY. Finally, analysts' opinions are aligned with the indicator readings, and more than 80% of them predict a continuation of the upward trend for this pair. The main goals are 113.55 and 115.50. This does not exclude a short-term slide of the pair to the 110.00 horizon;

- as often happens, the future of USD/CHF represents a mirror image of the EUR/USD. And if, in the short term, 75% of experts speak about the continuation of the downward trend, when giving a medium-term forecast 70% of them see growth. There are support levels at 0.9920, 0.9890 and 0.9820. The target heights are 1.0000 and 1.0100. As for graphical analysis, on H4 it points to the growth of the pair to 1.0040 in the coming days.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 08 - 12 May 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Recall that the experts’ opinions on EUR/USD a week ago were divided almost equally: 35% supported the growth of the pair, 30% voted for its fall and 35% foresaw a sideways trend. At the same time, more than 80% of indicators were oriented to the north: they turned out to be right. The ECB President Mario Draghi' s speech, coupled with optimism about the second round of elections in France, provided the euro with such strong support that this pair chose to ignore even very positive data on the US labour market published on Friday 5 May. Thus, the pair finished the week session near 1.1000, having risen by about 100 points in five days;

- GBP/USD. 65% of experts, together with graphical analysis on H4, suggested that the pair would fail to overcome the resistance of 1.3055 and would stay in the side channel 1.2775-1.3055 for the entire week. This forecast proved to be quite accurate, although the pair's fluctuations proved even more sluggish than expected: as a result, the pair did not even manage to leave the 1.2830-1.2983 range;

- The forecast for the future of USD/JPY was surprising because of the fact that analysts' opinions coincided with indicator readings, which was something we had not seen for quite some time: more than 80% of them predicted a continuation of the uptrend for this pair. The forecast was 100% correct. Already on Thursday, having risen by 185 points, the pair managed to reach 113.00;

- The forecast for USD/CHF also turned out to be correct. The absolute majority of experts (75%) insisted on the continuation of the downtrend, identifying the levels of 0.9890 and 0.9820 as support levels. Thus, the pair fixed the local bottom near the middle of this range at 0.9858, and finished the week session at 0.9870.

***

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- The forecast for EUR/USD resembles the one that was given last week. More than 90% of indicators point northwards, while at the same time one third of oscillators on D1 signal the pair is overbought. As for analysts, a good 65% ​​of them believe that the pair will try to secure a position above 1.0930 and 1.0850. And, just like last week, the medium-term forecast directly opposes the weekly one: here more than 60% of experts still expect the pair to fall into the 1.0400-1.0600 zone;

- Analysts express a similar opinion about the future of GBP/USD. The forecast for the coming days is as follows: 60% predict the growth of the pair, 40% predict its fall. The medium-term forecast, meanwhile, has 75% standing behind the fall of the pair and only 25% foreseeing its growth. Graphical analysis and almost 80% of trend indicators and oscillators agree with both the short and medium-term outlooks. The target for the coming days is the 1.3100-1.3150 zone, and the support levels are 1.2835 and 1.2770. In the medium term, we can expect a drop to the levels of 1.2570, 1.2375 and 1.2130;

- USD/JPY. The majority (60%) of experts believe that, seeing as the pair has reached the upper boundary of the descending channel that began at the end of December 2016, it should now be expected to descend. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agrees with such a forecast: according to its readings, the pair can fall first to 111.55, and then, after a short rebound, even further southwards to the 108.50 mark. An alternative point of view is represented by 40% of experts who, along with the indicators, expect the pair to grow to 115.00;

- Once again, the future of USD/CHF is expected to be a mirror image of EUR/USD: it will first go southwards to the support level of 0.9800, and then perform a 180-degree turn in order to return to the 1.0000-1.0100 zone. This scenario is supported by about 70% of analysts. However, in addition to the elections in France, whose results we expect to be announced on Monday, the second half of the week will also be filled with important economic and political events that are likely to affect the world’s major currencies. Thus, the most pessimistic forecast for the US dollar, supported by 30% of experts, does not exclude the fall of USD/CHF to 0.9550.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 15 - 19 May 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Recall that the experts' forecasts regarding the behaviour of EUR/USD in the short and medium term were fully opposed. Thus, in the first case, most of them favoured the growth of the pair, whilst in the second they favoured its fall. And, as it often happens, the medium-term forecast turned out to be the most accurate: until Thursday, the pair moved in a downtrend, losing more than 180 points over this period. However, on Friday, data on retail sales in the US was released, which played into the hands of bulls: instead of the expected 0.6%, consumer spending growth was only 0.4%: as a result, the pair drastically launched northwards and froze near the strong medium-term resistance line at 1.0932;

- A similar discrepancy among analysts was observed with respect to the future of GBP/USD. Apart from that, it was projected that the nearest support was at the level of 1.2835, and the resistance was 1.3100. However, just like two weeks ago, the pair ended up behaving more calmly than expected; it stayed within 1.2843-1.2986;

- For almost two months we have been stating in each of our forecasts for USD/JPY that experts are expecting its return first to 113.55, and then to 115.00. The pair has finally conquered the first of these heights and came close to the second one, reaching 114.36 just this week. After this victory, the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair retreated downwards by 100 points, finishing the week at 113.35;

- An absolute majority (70%) of analysts expected the pair USD/CHF to return to the 1.0000-1.0100 zone. This forecast turned out to be 100% true: the maximum of this week ended up being 1.0098, and the pair met the end of the week’s session at 1.0007.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The calendar for the upcoming week is not marked by any special economic or political events. This might be the reason why more than 50% of analysts, supported by almost half of the oscillators at D1, predict a lateral movement of this pair. The second fairly large group of experts (about 40%) believes that the pair will again test the height of 1.1000. 10% of experts still believe, though, that the pair will immediately head to the south. Interestingly, their point of view is supported by graphical analysis and almost half of the oscillators on H4, which indicate that this pair is overbought. Moreover, in the medium term, 65% of analysts expect it to fall. The nearest support is 1.0850, the medium-term goal is to return to the 1.0500-1.0680 zone;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here the trend indicators on D1 insist on the continuation of the sluggish-upward trend, which began in the last decade of April. 30% of experts agree with this point of view, believing that the pair must necessarily break the 1.3000 barrier. An alternative point of view is represented by 70% of analysts, 60% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on H4. All of them insist it is best to start selling this pair and suggest the nearest support is 1.2755. If we look at the medium-term forecast, the number of bear supporters among the analysts already exceeds 80%; 1.2100 is declared the main target.

- USD/JPY. After this pair’s impressive spurt upwards in the first half of last week and a sufficiently strong retracement in the second, the indicator readings turned out to be diametrically opposite: on D1, they recommend buying the pair, whilst on H4 they recommend selling. Analysts cannot come to any consensus either: one third of them predict the fall of the pair, another third its growth, and the remaining third foresee a sideways trend. At the same time, about 60% of experts believe that, leaning against the support in the 111.60-111.79 zone, the pair still should try to conquer the height of 115.50 in the next few weeks;

- The last pair of our review, as usual, is USD/CHF. Just like its chart for the past week ended up being similar to the USD/JPY chart, so are the forecasts of the indicators regarding its future: D1 advises to buy and H4 advises selling. As for the experts and graphical analysis, in their opinion, the pair will first have to drop to the 0.9940-0.9960 zone, then claw its way back to 0.9990, before finally returning to the 1.0050-1.0100 area once again.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com

US Confidence TRUMPed: EUR/USD 1.16, US Markets Fall 10%

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 22 - 26 May 2017. But first, a few words about what happened last week:

Experts and technical analysis make predictions. Politicians shape reality and last week made this very clear. The last few days "presented" the world with several scandals related to US President Donald Trump. This was the firing of the FBI Director James Comey, the related controversy around the possible transfer of confidential information by Trump to the Russian diplomats, and subsequent rumours of Trump’s possible impeachment ...
All this resulted in a sharp weakening of the dollar and the fall of the US stock market. Suffice to say that, according to Bloomberg, over the past few days, businessmen from the 500 world richest people list became poorer by $ 35 billion.

- Huge losses were suffered by those who believed the dollar would rise and held short positions in the pair EUR/USD. Beginning on 11 May, the pair made a dizzying take-off of almost 375 points, all without any correction or rebound. It was only on Thursday 18 May, that it gave the "bears" the smallest reason for hope. However, it still proceeded to fly up 135 points and completed the five-day period at 1.1207;

- As for GBP/USD, this pair behaved much more calmly compared to the single European currency. The growth of the pair comprised only 160 points, which fully fits into its weekly framework. This growth had been predicted by 30% of experts and trend indicators, who insisted that it should overcome the 1.3000 level. This indeed ended up happening - the pair finished the week session at 1.3035.

- Whilst the British Isles have withstood the tsunami that came from the US and emerged composed, another set of islands far to the east – Japan - experienced a much larger wave: USD/JPY lost about 360 points. Even though at the very end of the week the bulls did manage to claw back about 100 points, the pair nevertheless rolled back into the zone where it was in late March and early April this year;

- It is common knowledge that USD/CHF often mirrors the fluctuations of EUR/USD. This happened this time as well, with the only difference that, unlike the European currency, the Swiss franc did not allow itself any corrections and continuously grew all week, having won about 285 points from the US dollar.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
There is a very high chance that in the coming week the movement of major currencies will be determined not only by technical analysis, but by the fundamental forces of global politics and economics. That's why this time we have focused on the forecasts given not by indicators and charts, but by experts from a number of leading world banks and brokerage companies:

- It is clear that 100% trend indicators show the growth of the EUR/USD pair. At the same time, one third of the oscillators on H4 and D1 signal that it is overbought. Approximately 70% analysts agree with them, expecting the pair to return to at least the level of 1.1080. As for the medium-term forecast, here 80% of analysts expect the pair to fall to the 1.0600-1.0670 zone.
Yet, there also exists is another point of view. For example, experts from the major French bank Credit Agricole believe that the euro is undervalued and has a high chance of growing until the quotes of EUR/USD rise to 1.15-1.16.
These analysts are echoed by specialists from Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. They suggest that in the event of Donald Trump's impeachment, the probability of which is currently priced at 50%, the shares of leading US companies’ may fall by over 10%.

- As for the future of GBP/USD, the analysts' forecast looks like this: about 25% of experts believe the pair will be able to rise and gain a foothold above 1.3170. Most experts (75%), however, tend to the view that the pair should return to 1.2365-1.2570 over the next few weeks;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the pair’s behaviour next week, 80% of experts, along with graphic analysis on H4, expect this pair to descend to support in the 110.00 zone and further move in the side channel 110.00-111.60. However, if you extend the forecast by two or three months, the picture shifts completely to the opposite. On this time horizon, most analysts (65%) believe that the pair should return to an uptrend and once again rush to attack the height of 115.50;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Expert opinion here is divided as follows: 60% believe that the pair will continue to fall and reach the local bottom at 0.9650; the remaining 40% are guided by the fact that the pair is currently in the lower boundary of the medium-term down channel, which began in the early days of January 2016 and is clearly visible on the D1 and W1 charts. This gives a reason to expect the pair to turn and rebound to the middle line of the channel in the 0.9900 area, and then to its upper border at 1.0000. It should be noted that, in the medium term, about 70% experts agree with this view of events. However, as we wrote at the beginning of the forecast, much will depend on how tight the relationship between Donald Trump and the US Congress will actually prove to be.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for May 29 - June 2, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- As we wrote last time, whilst experts and technical analysis make predictions, it is politicians that make reality. The President of the United States Donald Trump spent the past week in Europe, causing the scandals associated with him to temporarily quiet down. This led to a lull in the financial markets, which neither the OPEC meeting on Thursday 25 May or, notably, the G7 leadership meeting could shake. EUR/USD spent the whole week in the 1.1160-1.1267 side corridor, as if waiting for new events, and finished the five-day period practically in the same place where it started: at 1.1185;

- As for GBP/USD, recall that the bulk of experts (75%) voted for this pair’s fall. They ended up being right. This forecast was of a medium-term nature, so the fall of GBP/USD by 265 points (from 1.3040 to 1.2775) can be considered only a forerunner of the inception of this trend;

- As for USD/JPY, this pair, after the shocks of the second fortnight of May, decided to take a breather, just like EUR/USD. It moved in a side channel the entire week, rotating around the 111.30 Pivot Point: the precise point where it completed the week's session;

- It is common knowledge that USD/CHF often mirrors the fluctuations of EUR/USD. This exact phenomenon was observed this time: its lateral trend was restricted to the range of 0.9690-0.9775, and the pair finished in the same place it started five days prior, at 0.9744.

***
Many analysts seem to think that during all of 2017 the foreign exchange market will be shaped by the unpredictability surrounding Donald Trump’s Presidency of the United States, rather than by any of the usual economic forces.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made based on a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- If one were to draw a conclusion from conducting graphical analysis on H4, one would say that in the coming days EUR/USD expects a decline to the support at 1.1075; if it breaks though this support it would fall into the 1.1000 zone. The main resistance in this scenario would be in the 1.1270 zone. 60% of experts agree with this forecast, as do the overwhelming majority of trend indicators and oscillators on H4.
At the same time, it should be noted that on Friday the data on the US labor market (NFP) will be published: the forecasts of the NFP, a very important driving force for dollar movements, suggests a negative outlook for the US dollar. Perhaps this is why about 40% of analysts predict the growth of the pair to 1.1400, after which the pair is nevertheless expected to decline.
It should be noted that, in the medium term, the number of supporters of the EUR/USD decline exceeds 80%, just as it had been previously;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, quite naturally, a clear majority of indicators point southwards. However, almost 80% of experts believe that, in the near future, the pair will not fall below 1.2755 and will continue to move in the rising channel that has been prevailing since mid-March, in an attempt to break through the resistance at 1.3050. As for the medium-term forecast, almost 70% of analysts now stand on the side of the bears, saying that, in the end, the pair will return to the 1.2 400-1.2615 side channel;

- USD/JPY. When giving a forecast for the coming week, experts are divided into two precisely equal-sized groups: 50% predict the fall of the pair and 50% predict its growth. Graphical analysis, meanwhile, suggests the following scenario for H4: first, a fall of the pair into the 110.85-111.00 area, and then its subsequent growth to the resistance at 111.90; in the event this resistance is broken, the pair should reach 112.50. On D1, the expected movements of the pair differ somewhat: the drop is expected to be to 110.00, whilst the subsequent rebound is thought to be to the resistance at 112.25. As for the medium-term outlook, here the benchmarks remain unchanged: almost 80% of analysts cast their votes for the growth of the pair to 114.50;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Even now about half of the oscillators on H4 indicate this pair is overbought and recommend opening long positions. As for the rest of indicators, they have taken a neutral position, believing that the pair will stay in the sideways trend within the 0.9690-0.9775 range for a while. Almost 70% of experts agree with these latter readings, believing that the pair will definitely test the lower limit of this channel at least once more. Its subsequent fate, in the opinion of most analysts and graphical analysis on H4, is a return into the 0.9890-0.9965 zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 05 - 09 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The previous forecast for EUR/USD turned out to be quite accurate when it came to trends, but the pair’s volatility turned out to be more modest than expected. Recall that 60% of experts predicted the pair’s decline to 1.1075; the pair did indeed start its descent on Monday but turned northwards when it was still 30 points away from target. This turn of events had been supported by 40% of analysts, who had expected that against the background of negative data for the dollar stemming from the NFP (survey of employment in the US outside the agricultural sector), the pair would soar to 1.1400 by the end of the week. The forecast came true only partially: the pair did go up, but ended the five-day period at 1.1280, without having reached 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Recall that the forecast, supported by most experts (80%), said that the pair would rise after it reached support at 1.2755 in an attempt to break through the resistance at 1.3050. The bearish side of the forecast was true. The strength of the bulls, however, was clearly overrated. As expected, the pair found its minimum at 1.2765. When it pushed away from it, though, it rose only by 165 points to 1.2920. After this, the bulls’ strength dried up, which allowed the pair to slip into a sideways trend that anticipated the parliamentary elections on 8 June;

- USD/JPY. Here, the most accurate forecaster was graphical analysis. According to its readings, the pair was supposed to decline to 110.85 (it actually fell to 110.50), before growing to the resistance at 111.90 (it grew to 111.70). The pair reacted to the NFP data by having the dollar fall 140 points. As a result, it managed to return to the week's minimum in the 110.40 zone;

- Almost 70% of experts expected that USD/CHF would once again test the support of 0.9690. The test did happen and the pair managed to pass it, having mirrored the performance of EUR/USD. As a result, USD/CHF managed to break this support following the release of the NFP data, completing the week session at the level of 0.9625.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is clear that, in the case of EUR/USD, the pair is not considered overbought: only 5% of oscillators on H4 and D1 say it is. Almost all indicators vote for the growth of the pair, naming the resistance level at 1400 and the May 2016 maximum of 1.1600 as the two main targets. And as for graphical analysis on H4, its readings suggest that in the next few days the pair may fall to 1.1100. Moreover, about 70% of experts insist on the pair's decline.
It should be noted that, in the medium term, the number of supporters of a EUR/USD decline has already reached 85%. This decline is expected to be into the 1.0900-1.1000 zone;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, unlike the previous pair, the indicators do not agree: about a third of them advise buying the pair, a third suggest selling, and the rest have simply taken a neutral position. Graphical analysis on D1 draws a side channel of 1.2770-1.3050 for the pair. What is obvious, however, is that none of these methods of technical analysis are able to factor in the occurrence of ​​snap parliamentary elections in Britain on Thursday, 8 June. But it is these very elections that will determine how Brexit will pan out.
Judging by analysts' forecasts, they do not expect anything good for the pound. For starters, almost 90% of them expect this pair's decline in June, first to the support at 1.2765, and then even lower to 1.2600;

- USD/JPY. After the fall of this pair by 140 points on Friday, 2 June, about 20% of oscillators indicate it is oversold and advise opening long positions. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this. It does not exclude, though, that the pair may first descend to the support at 110.00; only after this would it allow the bulls to take the upper hand and push it to 111.00.
Giving the forecast for the next few weeks, about 85% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to grow to 112.00-114.30;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. If you look at the readings of graphical analysis on H4, you will expect the pair’s dizzying take-off to the 1.0000 zone in the next few days. Whilst analysts generally agree with this, their forecast looks much calmer. Only 50% think the pair will return to 0.9760 in the next five days. Meanwhile, more than 90% of them believe that until the the pair will still be able to win back the May losses by mid-summer, returning to the landmark level of 1.0000.
In the case if the dollar, thanks to the Donald Trump’s administration, it remains under pressure: the pair may fall to the zone of 0.9540. The next support is at 0.9475.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 12 - 16 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Let us recall that in the forecasts regarding EUR/USD, most experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, spoke about the possible decline of the pair to 1.1100. The forecast proved correct, with the pair having lost about 120 points in the course of the week. However, it ended up being 65 points short of the named target, having only managed to reach 1.1165 before turning and arriving at 1.1195;

- It is clear that the behavior of GBP/USD last week was determined by the snap parliamentary elections in the UK, the outcome of which was quite unexpected and rather unpleasant for the governing Conservative Party. Note that the forecasts of financial analysts we published last week turned out to be much more accurate than any voting polls. Recall that our experts expected the fall of the British pound first to 1.2765 and then to the support at 1.2600. Allowing for standard error adjustments, this is exactly what ended up happening: on Friday, the pair reached the local bottom at 1.2633, after which it gained back just over 100 points. It finished the five-day period in the 1.2740 zone;

- USD/JPY. Last week, we were unable to give a clear-cut forecast for this pair. The scenario closest to reality turned out to be that described by graphical analysis, which talked about an initial fall of the pair to the support at 110.00 (in reality, this level ended up being 109.10), and then a reversal and subsequent growth to 111.00 (in reality, the growth was to 110.80). The net movement following the week’s activity is virtually zero: the pair finished almost at the same level, where it started;

- USD/CHF. Boiling down the results of technical and fundamental analysis last week, in general, the leanings of both indicators and analysts were bullish: everyone expected the pair to grow. The question was only about how much the pair would actually grow: whether sharply to the landmark level of 1.0000, or more modestly to 0.9760. The pair, as expected, departed northwards. However, it struggled to cover as little as 100 points, reaching only 0.9725 by Friday. After this, the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair slipped to 0.9690.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On one hand, last week the pair reached a powerful support level of 1.1165, which was followed by a small rebound. This, however, begs the question of whether this rebound represents 1) a shift of a bearish trend to a bullish one, or 2) a mere correction after which the pair's downward movement will continue.
Both trend indicators and the oscillators on D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it insists the pair will rise and return to the 1.1240-1.1285 zone.
Experts have taken a diametrically opposite position: 70% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will continue moving southwards, dropping first to the 1.1000-1.1100 zone and then to 1.0825.
And, of course, we mustn’t forget that on Wednesday, 14 June, the US Federal Reserve is expected to decide on the interest rate. The forecasts do not anticipate anything extraordinary to happen, but if a rate increase (or even a hint at a future increase) occurs, one should expect a stormy market reaction which may make the dollar seriously strengthen its position;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, technical analysis is still sidelined by politics and what will happen in the UK’s power structures in the coming days.
As for the graphical analysis on D1, it predicts an initial growth to 1.2980 and then a drop first to 1.2770 and then to 1.2650. Indicators and almost 85% of analysts agree with this, believing that by mid-summer the pair should drop to 1.2550;

- USD/JPY. This week, experts, graphical analysis and indicators demonstrate extraordinary unanimity. For the next few days, they expect a sideways trend in the 110.25-111.00 range. In the longer term, the pair is expected to rise to 112.00. It should be noted that in the medium term, more and more people are expecting the pair to grow. Currently, only 50% of analysts support a short term bullish scenario, whilst in the medium term this number already exceeds 75%.
An alternative, bearish point of view is represented by a mere 25% of experts who point to a local minimum in the 109.00 zone. Just one analyst believes the pair will fall to the April low at 108.00;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Graphical analysis shows the continuation of its movement in the descending channel that had started in the beginning of 2017. This channel is clearly visible on the D1 and W1 charts. According to this forecast, the pair has now launched off the lower border of the channel (0.9610) and started an upward movement to its upper limit (0.9910). The main resistance on this path is 0.9810. Almost 85% of analysts agree with this. However, as usual, the pair’s behavior is largely dependent on what happens with EUR/USD;

To conclude the forecast, we believe it worthwhile to recall that, in addition to the aforementioned US Fed rate decision on 14 June, similar decisions of the Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of England are expected on Thursday, 15 June and the Bank of Japan on Friday 16, June.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 - 23 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- It had been clear that the main moves for EUR/USD would begin on Wednesday 14 June, when the US Federal Reserve would officially announce a rate increase. Everyone was ready for this. What no one was expecting though was the sharp drop of the dollar 5.5 hours before this event. Taking advantage of negative data on the US consumer market, large speculators pulled the pair up by 100 points. As a result, the Fed's statement could only return it to the original value of 1.1200. However, the "bears" did not calm down there, and on Friday the pair reached the local bottom at 1.1130, after which it again returned to where it started the week: namely in the 1.1200 zone;

- As for GBP/USD, as expected, technical analysis proved useless last week. The pair made variously directed fluctuations with an amplitude of 100-150 points for the whole week, which were caused both by political factors and by the rate decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Even though the latter left rates unchanged at 0.25%, it should be noted that instead of the expected seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee, only five voted for this decision. Three, wanting to stop the pound falling (or, perhaps, fearing the appearance of another George Soros), spoke in favor of raising the rate. We can infer from this that it is possible that the financial policy of Great Britain will face serious changes soon, with these changes being related primarily to the capital outflow and the terms for the country's withdrawal from the EU;

- USD/JPY. We can say, albeit rather liberally, that the forecast for this pair turned out to be correct. Recall that at the beginning of the week we expected the pair to move in a sideways trend in the range of 110.25-111.00 the range turned out to be 110.15-110.50). As a local minimum, experts had indicated 109.00 (the pair dropped to the level of 108.80), and the height of 112.00 was named as the maximum (the pair reached 111.40). As for the results of the week, it ended at the medium-term Pivot Point 110.85, along which the pair has been moving since mid-May;

- USD/CHF. As expected, the pair carefully copied all movements of the EUR/USD during the entire week, although it did this with less volatility. Thus, whilst the maximum fluctuation range of the euro/dollar was 165 points, for the Swiss franc it did not exceed 130.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from several banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The only ones who took a neutral position this week were trend indicators: their votes on H4 and D1 were split approximately 50/50. As for the oscillators and graphical analysis, almost all of them point southwards. Almost 75% of experts agree with this view of events, considering that the pair will first fall to the support at 1.1100, and in the medium term even lower into the 1.0800-1.0900 zone. 1.1300 is indicated as the main resistance;

- As for the future of the GBP/USD, there is no unanimity among the indicators. H4, trend indicators, oscillators and graphical analysis all insist on buying the pair; D1 indicators suggest selling. In general, a fairly wide side corridor appears within the boundaries of 1.2580-1.2970. The picture among analysts, though, is quite different: the overwhelming majority of them (70%) have sided with the "bears", believing that the nearest target for the pair will be the 1.2600-1.2700 zone. The next target is 1.2400. The voices of the bulls’ supporters this week are very weak, and they all point to the May maximum at 1.3050;

- USD/JPY. 90% of experts believe that the uptrend for this pair is not yet complete, and it should necessarily try to break through resistance at 112.00. Graphical analysis on H4, as well as about 70% of indicators, agree with such developments. However, it should be noted that almost a quarter of oscillators indicate this pair is overbought. The main support in case of a fall is in the 109.00 zone;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Here, almost all indicators have turned green. Recall that, having fought off the lower border (0.9610) of the medium-term descending channel, which began at the very beginning of 2017, the pair started approaching the center. Now almost 80% of analysts and almost the same proportion of technical analysis instruments expect its further growth. The nearest resistance is 0.9810, the upper limit of the channel is 0.9910. However, almost 90% of experts do not exclude that the pair will not stop at this height and will soon overcome 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com