When people say you cannot compare this Iraq situation, because it has never been done before, here is a classic example. I have been searching for a couple of years and I have never seen any country execute this monetary policy. Never. No one else can do this. I don't know how they are able to do this. They are obviously getting a ton of help behind the scenes, and makes it clear a Marshall Plan type scenario is being executed.
If everyone understood how outstanding this monetary execution is, they would be even more excited about the IQD's potential. This is mind blowing. There is no way this monetary policy is being executed for a 1:.01 exchange rate. After looking at these numbers, I am convinced that anything less than 1:1 is truly for shaking out the less patient holders of IQD.
Thanks Strongtower for your research...excellent info! Thanks Wm.Knowles for you analogy.
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Thread: Dinars Absorbed Into The Cbi
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13-04-2007, 10:31 PM #21
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Understatement
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13-04-2007, 10:56 PM #22
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Dinars extracted
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Hey Socata, me and my guys have been number crunching and this is what we have come up with so far in addition with your great DD and hard work. These numbers are not done but I thought you (Socata) would be interested in these figures. People say that the CBI is not taking dinar out of circulation but look at this IMF report and make your own judgement.
Interesting find !! What I would caution about the estimate of dinars extracted is that when you look at the history of the auctions on the CBI website, they list the exchange rate and the amount of dollars converted to dinars. However, you will notice that dollars coming back into the CBI in those early auctions are not listed. I can tell you that having monitored the CBI auctions for over 1.5 years, that there were many auctions that had both dinars and dollars moving in and out of the CBI on a daily basis. In fact in late '05 and early '06 the daily flow of dinars to dollars was about equal on a daily basis. I say all this just to put a bit of conservatism into our estimates. As you will recall, in January or so of this year both Michael16 and Shotgunsusie indicated they both had done research and determined that approximately an additional 4 trillion dinars had been extracted in '06 prior to our (collective) tracking of this plan which we recognized in late Sept/early Oct. I think we can easily say that the CBI has removed 1/2 of all the dinars (approximately) 21 trillion that were once in the economy. I pray that this process will not go on for much longer, I know it is not up to us, just "Stay the Course, its the difference between the Winners and the whiners" !!Last edited by Socata 850; 14-04-2007 at 02:52 PM.
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13-04-2007, 11:09 PM #23
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Thank you for your comments. You are not the first astute individual who has remarked about the unseen support that Iraq has received. Since there are 27 coalition countries, the IMF and the world bank who are behind this effort, it would be expected that guidance and financial support would be there. You are also right in that an RV in the pennies would be too low when one compared their financial picture. A low RV would only to a tactic to remove currency from speculators who will sell at a low price. Like one person once said, "those who own dinar will make a lot of money, and those who hold for a while will get very rich". Thanks again.
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14-04-2007, 01:14 AM #24
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say there is roughly 11 trillion dinar out in the streets, could they possibly do a large rv, say 1-1 ?
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14-04-2007, 02:47 AM #25
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11 trillion is Socata's conservative estimate. I believe it is much lower than that. CBI has stated there will be no more printing of IQD. This means lower denominations are included in the 21 trillion total. But these lower denoms would be part of what is in the CBI's possession. That is significant because you would have to further reduce Socata's approx 11 trillion in the streets by the amount of lower denoims.
What would you estimate the amount of lower denoms to be? 2 trillion? 4 trillion? And remember, as they are released, they will replace the larger denominations in volume. So there will not be a net increase in circulated currency.
Also, Strongtower's info brings to light a very interesting issue in 2004: The IQD exchanged for as high as 4000:1 and was WIDELY considered worthless. NO ONE wanted IQD, especially Iraqis. Therefore, the CBI was able to "absorb" a substantial amount of IQD because EVERYONE in Iraq wanted US dollars at that time...Even the GOI. So I believe Strongtowers figures are realistic, because in 2004 no one wanted IQD. This means the CBI had very few opportunities to sell IQD. This changed somewhat in the second half of 2005 thru 2006, when the GOI mandated the use of IQD. However, the first year and one-half was much different.
I think we are talking less than 4 trillion in circulation...Probably much less.
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14-04-2007, 03:43 AM #26
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You make a valid point for the high RV. I too believed the CBI has been pulling dinar out for much longer than anyone realizes. Also since there has been no direct correlation to the exchange rate increase and the removal of excess dinar, thereby establising that the CBI ultimately is holding back on the rate purposely. My guess is much like Wm. knowles has stated many times, a target circulation level is established and we are racing toward it.I agree we could be in the billions and not trillions as far as circulation goes. You can't trust the official record nor is it in the CBI's interest to announce to the world through the record that they are about to make a major adjustment. I always founds it intersting that folks try to declare the official record as transperancy. Nice work.
It seems that the state insists, or preserve the value of the Iraqi dinar 148 against the dollar ...Monetary value of the Iraqi dinar must revert to the previous level, or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states [ MOF Sept 2006]
High RV is like Coke; it’s the real thing baby!
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14-04-2007, 03:52 AM #27
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It seems that the state insists, or preserve the value of the Iraqi dinar 148 against the dollar ...Monetary value of the Iraqi dinar must revert to the previous level, or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states [ MOF Sept 2006]
High RV is like Coke; it’s the real thing baby!
Jesus Loves You
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14-04-2007, 05:19 AM #28
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There are serveral reasons for the Dinars to be getting Harder to get.
1. 20% interest rates makes it profitable for investors, but harder on local Iraqi because it tightens the moneysupply.
2. They keep taking Dinars from circulation at the auctions.
Bye the way Roll club Rocks.
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14-04-2007, 07:07 AM #29
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14-04-2007, 08:38 AM #30
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so is there is no way to find out how much dinar is printed, in circulation, and held by the cbi?
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