Hey Socata, me and my guys have been number crunching and this is what we have come up with so far in addition with your great DD and hard work. These numbers are not done but I thought you (Socata) would be interested in these figures. People say that the CBI is not taking dinar out of circulation but look at this IMF report and make your own judgement.
41. During 2004, the CBI has relied on foreign exchange auctions as the principal instrument in the conduct of monetary policy. The CBI has utilized the foreign exchange auction to manage liquidity in the system, to absorb excess dinars, as well as to provide foreign exchange to private sector activity. To allow for more flexibility in managing monetary policy, the CBI is in the process of broadening its set of monetary policy instruments. The CBI Board recently approved the creation of a lender-of-last-resort facility and an overnight standing credit/deposit facility, and has issued new regulations making the reserve requirement regime more flexible. The banking facilities should be in operation by October 1, 2004, and the reserve requirement regulation should be implemented by no later than December 1, 2004. Similarly, the newly introduced auction of treasury bills will help stimulate the development of a secondary market for these securities, which will enable the CBI to conduct open market operations. Moreover, in order to facilitate the formation of an appropriate benchmark interest rate, we will provide an adequate environment for the private sector's banks to increase their participation in the treasury bills auctions.
Iraq -- Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding, September 24, 2004
So far we have calculated all auctions for 2004 and came up with these numbers. 2004 reveals that the CBI bought 7,057,884,146,000 There are still unaccounted numbers for 2005-2006 Sept.
If 7 trillion was bought in 2004 and 8 trillion was bought from 10/06 - 4/9/07 that equals 15 trillion and we know 21 trillion was circulated. so 6 trillion is out there and we haven't counted from 1/05 through 9/06. It is my guess that there is NOT even 1 trillion in circulation as we thought. This is going to get interesting and now see no reason why it can't move directly to .97 but, it is up to Iraq to reval their system.
In short if 8 trillion were bought from 10-06 to 4/9/07 and 7 trillion bought in 2004. We now need to count all of 2005 and 9 months of 2006. This means 21 months of buying data needs to be counted. We are talking billions in circulation not trillions.
I will say that I am an experienced stock trader and with my knowledge of how stocks work and what dilution does. I see that it looks like dinars keep being printed but it contradicts with what is happening to their currency and economy. If Iraq keeps printing currency meaning dilution, then why has the dinar climbed from 4000-1270. and inflation was cut down to around 30%. What we are reading or seeing is a major contradiction. I have read where the dinar fell from $3.00 to .31 because Saddam started a printing frenzy. Then why are we not seeing this happen now. I'm not trying to pull a rabbit out of my hat but facts are facts. Something is not being reported right.
To be fair, this was a response to my thoughts on this issue.
FROM ANOTHER POSTER NOT ME
For Iraq and any fixed exchange rate country there are 2 parts to the exchange rate equation. One is money supply (m2), the other is Foreign Currency Reserves.
Iraq had practically zero in foreign currency reserves because Saddam had taken it all. The NID started at 4000:1 because of that lack of reserves. So even as Iraq increased money supply they were able to improve the exchange rate because they were increasing foreign currency reserves at a faster pace... ratio wise of course.
The perfect example is what’s going on in Kuwait and other middle eastern countries. We’ve seen the articles lately about pressure to raise the exchange rates in those countries. That pressure is not because they are reducing money supply, it’s because they have been increasing foreign currency reserves for the last couple years because of higher oil prices.
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Thread: Dinars Absorbed Into The Cbi
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13-04-2007, 02:36 PM #1
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Dinars Absorbed Into The Cbi
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13-04-2007, 02:47 PM #2
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The volume that is listed here, is it sold or what has been taken out?
http://www.cbiraq.org/C.B.I.%20FOREI...20AUCTIONS.pdf
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13-04-2007, 05:07 PM #3
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excellent post. This is the fourth piece of research I am aware of that has looked at past auctions and come up with the same general conclusions. That the CBI has been engaged in an aggressive and dramtic removal of the currency from the economy long before we (Socata 850) began tracking the auctions. A classic textbook intervention and much the same as a "buy back" of outstanding shares of stock that a Company would do to enhance their financial posture. Since these guys are stock traders, a buy back program is something they would be aware of and might be experts. The dramatic change in Oct. of '06 was in all probabilty due to the high inflation numbers of Aug. of '06. Inflation at 77%. They had to move hard and fast and change the dribble out approach they had been engaged in. We may never know excatly how much was taken out NET in '06, but IMHO they were doing this and when combined with the growth in GNP (which absorbs currency and reduces inflation) the supply side of the equation is a recipe for a increased valuation of the commodity (currency). Thank You.
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13-04-2007, 05:29 PM #4
CBI Bill Auctions Cancelled
What is amazing is that the last two CBI Bill Auctions were cancelled this Month because of Lack of Interest from the Banks. At 22% interest rate, no bank would Bid on them? Either the Banks are out of IQD or their waiting on a signicant RV!! What is your interpretation??
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13-04-2007, 06:19 PM #5
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Great Job Guys! Keep Up This Excellent Work!
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13-04-2007, 06:31 PM #6
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Habakkuk 2:2-3 Then the LORD answered me and said: “ Write the vision And make it plain on tablets,
That he may run who reads it. 3 For the vision is yet for an appointed time; But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie. Though it tarries, wait for it; Because it will surely come, It will not tarry.
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13-04-2007, 06:32 PM #7
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13-04-2007, 06:34 PM #8
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info
Heard from a friend just minutes ago. He is from Iraq, still has family over there. He is heavily invested in Dinar...... his quote " I don't know what is going on, but it is getting harder and harder to obtain Dinar over there (in Iraq), I take this as a good thing".
No predictions, no dates, just thought I would share this information. Not even sure if it is relevant, so it is what it is.
By the way...... my friend has over 35 million Dinar in his safe, and has been getting them sent to him from his family for a long while now, so he is up to speed on this investment, I just hope it all means something positive.
Good day.
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13-04-2007, 06:36 PM #9
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what does this mean? is it good news or bad news?
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13-04-2007, 06:39 PM #10
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VERYYYYYYYYYY GOOOOOOOOOOD NEWSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!
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