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Fundamental Analysis, August 11, 2011
Yesterday, the Swiss National Bank intervened for the second time in a week, but the success of the central bank is expected to be short-lived, given the global crisis. The U.S. dollar rose against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.7400 Swiss francs. The euro was also higher against the Swiss franc, trading at 1.0540 Swiss francs.
Gold broke a new record, although at this point it is not new. In this sense, many analysts are already anticipating a value of $ 2000 an ounce by year's end. However, rarely the price moves in one direction, it is recommended to ensure you have sufficient funds in your account to cover any decline in the curve results.
While European equity markets open in upward trend for trade, common currency lies also higher against the U.S. dollar, trading most recently at 1.4180, but still regarded as vulnerable to selling pressure and investors fear that the fiscal crisis in the euro zone may be spreading to France. Those concerns were evident yesterday when the actions of the French banks were in a tailspin, sending the global capital markets below. The dive was precipitated by an unsubstantiated rumor, thinking it was transmitted by speculators, the credit rating of AAA from France was being examinees.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF wave analysis for August 11, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110811/CHF_h4(1).gif
During yesterday’s trading the USD/CHF continued recent slow rollback from the 0.7085 level. Therefore we might suppose that the price is forming inner wave structure of the 5th wave (in the 5th), in this case – the 4th wave in the 3rd, in the 5th. If so, the targets for this 5th wave are located in a quite wide price range and might be found between 0.7060 and 0.6950 or even 0.6850.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook August 11, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...deaugust11.gif
CRUDE OIL
The oil found resistance at the $ 84 a barrel and is struggling to pass that level. We will try to find a support to 78 dollars and then take upward momentum. If you manage to break sharply, is likely to continue until 89 or even $ 92 a barrel.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/CHF Bullish Outlook, August 11, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...ugust11(1).gif
EUR/CHF
Yesterday the Swiss National Bank stepped forward to increase liquidity in order to stop the hyper-appreciation of the Swiss Franc.
At the technical level, the Euro domination by the CHF could take a break. We believe it is time to buy euros and sell francs to the 1.1040 resistance level.
The MACD indicator shows signs of bullish signal.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Technical analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 11, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110811/eurusd_4.gif
Overview:
Forex market analysis for August 11 shows that at the moment downtrend still remains and there are frequent rollbacks and corrections. The downtrend is moving to side movement. It is not recommended to trade this pair now. The buy signal is confirmed and weak, since the Chinkou Span fixated over the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 1.4660– the second support level. Upside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.4240), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show side movement, which prevents us from bullish trading. Yet due to high volatility and frequent corrections trading is not recommended in general.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the market stabilizes. Trading is dangerous now as losses are rather likely to occur.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 12, 2011 GBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend from 128.87 (colored red in the chart). Within this wave there are four subwaves with subwave 4 from 123.27 still developing (colored orange red in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.23, 128.87-123.27, 127.01-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-124.75-123.36. Resistances: - 125.14 = .50 retracement - 125.41 = .382 ret - 125.58 = .618 ret - 125.75 = expanded objective point (XOP) - 126.07-15 = .50 and .382 retracements - 126.73 = .618 ret - 127.04 = .50 ret - 127.93 = .618 ret If the price reverses to the downside the targets of the downmove will be Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-127.38-128.87, 128.87-125-36-127.01. Supports: - 121.33 = expanded objective point (XOP) - 119.89 = super expanded objective point (SXOP) http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...2-02-gj-en.gif Overbought/Oversold Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (20-25 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (60-80 pips above the current prices). Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 12, 2011
AUD/USD is moving within subwave 4 (from 1.09928) of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. These four waves are part of wave A of larger degree from 1.1079 (colored royal blue in the chart). Within wave 4 there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0111.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1063-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111.
Resistances:
- 1.0414 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0496 = .50 retracement
- 1.0597 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0629 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements 0.9928-1.0414, and expansions off 1.0414-1.0111-1.0358.
Supports:
- 1.0171 = COP
- 1.0114 = .618 ret
- 1.0055 = OP
- 0.9928 = 100% ret
- 0.9868 = expanded objective point (XOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...2-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (30-60 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, August 12, 2011
In yesterday's session the technical bounce expected after a week of hard falls finally happened. The bags were at oversold levels.
Europe is experiencing a critical situation. The Eurozone member countries do not have a good fiscal health, have high debt levels and more and more doubts about the affordability of these countries. Also, the region's macroeconomic indicators are showing mixed results and sustained growth.
Specifically in France, the cost of sovereign borrowing is growing significantly and investors are wary of buying debt from another country other than Germany. The spread of the 10-year yields between French and German bonds is growing day by day, even keeping both rated "AAA", currently reaching a peak of almost one percentage point. On the other hand, the 5-year CDS of France yesterday reached a record 184 points.
The key to today's session will be two U.S. macro data: retail sales, expected positive and Trust University of Michigan, which in principle could be weaker but we do not assume a destabilizing factor in the market.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for August 12, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110812/EUR_h4.gif
Yesterday the EUR/USD currency pair could not decide on its further direction and traded further in the channel along the 42 figure level. At the same time narrow range of intraday price change indirectly denotes close culmination of this uncertain situation. Simultaneously, the wave situation formed after July 27 does not yet enable us to interpret its further development explicitly; only the location of the Stochastic gives us certain hint for further growth of the price in favour of the euro.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Bullish Outlook, August 12, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...roaugust12.gif
EUR/USD
The evaluation of fundamental analysis is finally argues that the euro-dollar pair should be supported in long-term upward direction as the euro is the natural currency "by default" when investor confidence betray the dollar.
The technical picture of the pair reflects opportunities for advancement to the 1.4700 resistance level. The first price target for the short term can be found at around 1.4360. However, only if the pair breaks the downtrend line that acts as resistance in the 1.4380, we will get technical confirmation for the continuation of the movement upwards and towards the medium term price target at around 1.4680 or 1,4700 dollars to the euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Bullish Above 125,00 August 12, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...pyaugust12.gif
GBP/JPY
The United Kingdom pound – Japanese yen pair showed excessive weakness during the wave of price drops that hit the financial markets.
If the pair begin an upwards movement above to 1.2500 (weekly close), our close resistance level will be placed at 127.80 and this will be used as our price target for an initial realization. Later is expected to reach the significant resistance level at 131.50 – a level at which the pair was stopped in its not so distance past.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The USD/JPY technical analysis and trading recommendations for August 12, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110812/usdjpy_4.gif
Overview:
The analysis of the yen on Forex market for August 12 shows that at the moment downside movement is remaining, the currency is still observing a sell signal with target level 74.96. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 76.38 – the first support level, the price reached this level but did not pass it yet. If this level is passed the second target will be the second support level at 74.37. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (77.25), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show continuing downside movement, the lines are slightly narrowng and directed down. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current correction movement, therefore it is not recommended to trade down now. Trading should be resumed as soon as the correction ends, which will be indicated by the reverse of the MACD to the downside.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 76.38 and further to 74.37. Stop Loss should be placed above 77.25 and stretched down as the Kijun-sen declines. It is recommended to open short positions after the MACD reverses down.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
�hart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 15 - 19/ August, 2011
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4746
Weekly - R2 = 1.4588
Weekly - R1 = 1.4418
Weekly Pivot = 1.4260
Weekly - S1 = 1.4090
Weekly - S2 = 1.3932
Weekly - S3 = 1.3762
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5447
Monthly - R2 = 1.5013
Monthly - R1 = 1.4705
Monthly Pivot = 1.4271
Monthly - S1 = 1.3963
Monthly - S2 = 1.3529
Monthly - S3 = 1.3221
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 15 - 19/ August, 2011
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.1077
Weekly - R2 = 1.0761
Weekly - R1 = 1.0558
Weekly Pivot = 1.0242
Weekly - S1 = 1.0039
Weekly - S2 = 0.9723
Weekly - S3 = 0.9520
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1760
Monthly - R2 = 1.1420
Monthly - R1 = 1.1206
Monthly Pivot = 1.0866
Monthly - S1 = 1.0652
Monthly - S2 = 1.0312
Monthly - S3 = 1.0098
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 15 - 19 / August, 2011
_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6834
Weekly - R2 = 1.6655
Weekly - R1 = 1.6468
Weekly Pivot = 1.6289
Weekly - S1 = 1.6102
Weekly - S2 = 1.5923
Weekly - S3 = 1.6736
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.7359
Monthly - R2 = 1.6914
Monthly - R1 = 1.6670
Monthly Pivot = 1.6225
Monthly - S1 = 1.5981
Monthly - S2 = 1.5536
Monthly - S3 = 1.5292
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For August 15 -19, 2011
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 80,17
Weekly - R2 = 79,31
Weekly - R1 = 78,01
Weekly Pivot = 77,15
Weekly - S1 = 75,85
Weekly - S2 = 74,99
Weekly - S3 = 73,69
_____MONTHLY___
Monthly - R3 = 84,65
Monthly - R2 = 83,06
Monthly - R1 = 79,90
Monthly Pivot = 78,31
Monthly - S1 = 75,15
Monthly - S2 = 73,56
Monthly - S3 = 70.40
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF wave analysis for August 15, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110815/CHF_h4.gif
During Friday’s trading the USD/CHF continued to grow and stopped its upside movement 15 points from the 78 figure level by the end of the day. At the same time, given the current wave situation we might suppose that the price is ending the formation of a quite prolonged 3rd wave within the whole upside section initiated August 9 from the 0.7085 level. If so, it is possible that the price will try to indicate the top of the current 1st wave (or a) near the 0.7850 level.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 15, 2011
AUD/USD is moving within wave B (from 1.0928) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave B there are A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0111. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111, 1.0111-1.0358-1.0246.
Resistances:
- 1.0493-1.0504 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 retracement
- 1.0597 = OP
- 1.0639-46 = confluence area of .618 ret and expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9928 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...5-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (45-65 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 15, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave 4 of medium term downtrend from 123.27 (colored red in the chart). This wave 4 is part of larger wave A from 130.81 - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave 4 there are three subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 123.95.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, 128.87-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-124.96-123.95.
Resistances:
- 125.64 = objective point (OP)
- 126.07-15 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 126.68-73 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 ret
- 127.04 = .50 ret
- 127.93 = .618 ret
- 128.37 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the targets of the downmove will be Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-127.38-128.87, 128.87-123.27-125.61.
Supports:
- 122.15 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 120.01 = OP
- 119.89 = SXOP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...5-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (55-70 pips above the current prices).
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (20-25 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (60-80 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD candlestick analysis (long-term view)
The EUR/USD currency pair closed with a sharp decline this week.
Earlier in a weekly graph the EUR/USD formed Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This combination shows that the pair dropped sharply after an attempt to advance to the resistance level 1.4700, which means that the bears started to increase their influence.
Further decline is supported by the RSI indicator demonstrating a rollback from the overbought level 70.0.
Break of the support level 1.3969 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect a decline to the support level 1.3427 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 1.4700 as its break will target the pair to 1.4900.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110813/Picture_6.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 16, 2011
AUD/USD is moving within wave B (from 1.0928) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave B there are A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0111. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111, 1.0111-1.0358-1.0246, 1.0246-1.0440-1.0387.
Resistances:
- 1.0493-1.0504-1.0507 = confluence area of objective point (OP), .50 retracement, and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0581 = OP
- 1.0597 = OP
- 1.0639-46 = confluence area of .618 ret and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0701 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0511.
Supports:
- 1.0288 = .382 ret
- 1.0219 = .50 ret
- 1.0151 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...6-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (40-60 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 16, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B of medium term downtrend from 123.27 (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 123.95.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, 128.87-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-124.96-123.95, 123.95-125.61-124.96.
Resistances:
- 125.99 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 126.07-15 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 126.62-68-73 = confluence area of objective point (OP), expanded objective point (XOP), and .618 ret
- 127.04 = .50 ret
- 127.65 = XOP
- 127.93 = .618 ret
- 128.37 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the targets of the downmove will be Fibonacci retracements of 123.27-125.99.
Supports:
- 124.95 = .382 ret
- 124.63 = .50 ret
- 124.31 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...6-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (45-65 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com