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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 1, 2011
GBP/JPY is moving within wave C of long term downtrend - colored light green in the chart. And within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored royal blue), with subwave B still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 132.30-128.19 and expansions off 128.19-130.06-128.40, 128.40-129.66-129.13.
Resistances:
- 129.91 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.25-27 = confluence area of .50 ret and objective point (OP)
- 130.39 = objective point (OP)
- 130.73 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 139.93-130.26-135.11, 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-128.19-130.06, 130.06-128.40-129.66.
Supports:
- 128.00 = OP
- 127.52 = COP
- 126.97 = expanded objective point (XOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...1-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/CHF candlestick analysis for July 1, 2011
Earlier in a daily graph the GBP/JPY formed a Piercing Line candlestick expressing a bullish signal. At the moment the price is testing the Fibonacci correction level 23.6.
This candlestick combination indicates that the pair was demonstrating downside movement during several months after an unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance 1.3238. However, near 1.1800 it reversed, which means that the bears could not solidify here and further the bulls started to increase their influence.
Break of the resistance level 1.2317 and Fibonacci correction level will mean this point of view is correct.
In this case we should expect growth to the resistance level near 1.2730 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located as well.
Upside movement is supported by the divergence on the RSI and the MACD.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly below the support level 1.1800 as its break will cause refreshing new lows.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110701/Picture_8.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, July 01, 2011
Yesterday the stock continued to receive parliamentary approval of the fiscal adjustment
program in Greece with great optimism. The market, which reacted with strong gains on
Wednesday to vote in favor of the austerity plan, reaffirmed rises in the day yesterday
after the Greek parliament gave the green light to the immediate implementation of measures
to reduce public expenditure demanded by the FMI and UEM.
After a session marked by a visceral optimism after Greece has so far avoided bankruptcy,
the market should come today marked by profit taking. Rises in the last two days and
clearly reflect the expectation that the Eurogroup decided affirmatively about the granting
of 12,000. € financial aid to Greece.
Therefore, we believe that the negotiation on the stock can be bearish, once the market
leaves the euphoria of this week and assume that Greece has passed a test and has won part
time, but by no means solved their problems structural or reduced their high debts.
In the USA today publish the ISM manufacturing data, in addition, publicly available,
including the data of U.S. consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, construction
spending.
This day will see how the market is taken as important data in the U.S. could be the last
hurdle for the bulls.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook July 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...n_julio(1).gif
CRUDE OIL
In the four-hour chart we can see the price of oil barrel has rebounded from its lowest
level in 90.00 and is now trading above fractal formed around 94.45, however, the price per
barrel of oil shows an attractive opportunity to buy in the long term.
Therefore a return to the level of 92.50 can be used as key point for an increase to a
position by an extra portion at a lower and more attractive price with a target to the
resistance level of 98.20 dollars per barrel of oil.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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GBP/JPY Bullish Above 130,10 July 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...n_julio(1).gif
GBP/JPY
The United Kingdom pound – Japanese yen pair that fell all the way from 140 down to 128,
can still be found very close to its record low level and so, the expectation is that the
pair still has a long way to go upwards. The pair shows the classic reverse pattern – Head
and Shoulders. A clean break to the line that passes close to 129.80 (closure of the four
hour bar above it) will confirm the realization of the reverse pattern.
Such a breakthrough can be expected to push the pair forwards towards the short term price
target that we set for the pair relative to the first significant resistance level at
around 132.10.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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USD/CHF wave analysis for July 1, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110701/CHF_h4.gif
Dynamic growth of the USD/CHF currency pair allowed it to break the upper limit of the
downside corridor and fixate near the 84 figure level. At the same time, as a result of
such growth, the price formed a 5-wave structure of the estimated a wave of a more
continuous and deep correction. If so, the pair might decline from current levels (or the
levels near 0.8475) within the future b wave.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For July 04-09, 2011
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 82,30
Weekly - R2 = 81,78
Weekly - R1 = 81,30
Weekly Pivot = 80,78
Weekly - S1 = 80,30
Weekly - S2 = 79,78
Weekly - S3 = 79,30
_____MONTHLY___
Monthly - R3 = 85,35
Monthly - R2 = 82,45
Monthly - R1 = 81,49
Monthly Pivot = 80,59
Monthly - S1 = 79,63
Monthly - S2 = 78,73
Monthly - S3 = 77.77
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 04 - 08/ July, 2011
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.1308
Weekly - R2 = 1.1048
Weekly - R1 = 1.0909
Weekly Pivot = 1.0649
Weekly - S1 = 1.0510
Weekly - S2 = 1.0250
Weekly - S3 = 1.0111
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1247
Monthly - R2 = 1.1010
Monthly - R1 = 1.0863
Monthly Pivot = 1.0626
Monthly - S1 = 1.0479
Monthly - S2 = 1.0242
Monthly - S3 = 1.0095
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 06 - 08/ July, 2011
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.5132
Weekly - R2 = 1.4842
Weekly - R1 = 1.4682
Weekly Pivot = 1.4393
Weekly - S1 = 1.4234
Weekly - S2 = 1.3944
Weekly - S3 = 1.3785
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5396
Monthly - R2 = 1.5046
Monthly - R1 = 1.4771
Monthly Pivot = 1.4421
Monthly - S1 = 1.4146
Monthly - S2 = 1.3796
Monthly - S3 = 1.3521
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 04-09/ July, 2011
_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6362
Weekly - R2 = 1.6239
Weekly - R1 = 1.6156
Weekly Pivot = 1.6033
Weekly - S1 = 1.5950
Weekly - S2 = 1.5827
Weekly - S3 = 1.5744
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6974
Monthly - R2 = 1.6735
Monthly - R1 = 1.6390
Monthly Pivot = 1.6151
Monthly - S1 = 1.5806
Monthly - S2 = 1.5567
Monthly - S3 = 1.5222
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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USD/JPY wave analysis. Week review
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110704/JPY_d.gif
Another attempt of the USD/JPY to break the 81 figure level was not successful. At the same
time the formed wave structure looks like a series of abc waves included in the future
horizontal (diagonal) triangle. If so, the price still needs to form e and d waves of such
triangle before possible beginning of a decline to a relevant support level 79.55.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 5, 2011
AUD/USD has developed wave A of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. And now the pair is developing corrective wave B from 1.0789. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves - colored orange red in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0390-1.0789 and expansions off 1.0789-1.0712-1.0764, 1.0764-1.0714-1.0746.
Supports:
- 1.0665 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0639-37 = confluence area of XOP and .382 retracement
- 1.0615 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0589 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the uside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0789 - this wave is not developed yet.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...5-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices as well).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 5, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave B from 128.19 (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave C of long term downtrend (from 132.30). Now within this wave B there are A, B and C subwaves of still smaller degree - colored magenta in the chart. Subwave C is still developing from 128.40. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 132.30-128.19, and expansions off 128.19-130.06-128.40, 128.40-130.05-129.64.
Resistances:
- 130.25-27 = confluence area of .50 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 130.66 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.73 = .618 ret
- 131.29 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 128.40 - this wave is not developed yet.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...5-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for July 5, 2011
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement.
This candlestick combination was demonstrating strong upside movement after a fail to break 0.8720. However, it reversed near 0.9083. It means that the bears activated near 0.9100 and did not allow the bulls to fixate.
Fixation below the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect downside movement with a target at the support level 0.8860 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located as well.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 0.9083 as its break will target the pair to 0.9150.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110705/Picture_8.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF candlestick analysis for July 5, 2011
In a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF currency pair is testing the upper limit of the downtrend. Earlier the USD/CHF advanced amid a rebound off the 0.8275 level.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF formed a Shooting Star candlestick indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This candlestick shows that the USD/CHF was demonstrating upside movement for several days, but rebounded after a fail to break 0.8946. At the next attempt of the bulls to fixate above 0.8900 the bears started to increase their influence, which resulted in formation of this candlestick.
Successful testing of the support level 0.8747 proved this point of view. Break of 0.8458 which is also the 61.8 Fibonacci projection 0.9342-0.8552 to 0.8946 targeted the pair to 0.8350. Break of the 0.8350 level caused downside movement to 0.8158 where the Fibonacci projection level 100.0 is located.
Stop loss should be placed slightly above the 0.8552 level as a break of this resistance level will target the pair to 0.8747 and will result in formation of a short-term bottom at 0.8275.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110705/Picture_7.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/CAD candlestick analysis for July 5, 2011
The AUD/CAD is demonstrating sideways movement. However, the viewpoint at the pair remains bearish.
Earlier in a daily graph the AUD/CAD has formed an Evening Star candlestick combination indicating bearish signal, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair could not break the resistance level 1.0550, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level means that this point of view is correct. If the pair fixates below the support level 1.0189 will probably lead to downside movement to 0.9937 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
Downside movement is supported by the divergence on the RSI and the Stochastic.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.0550 level as its break will target the pair to 1.0600.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110705/Picture_5.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for July 5, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110705/eurusd_4.gif
Overview:
Forex market analysis for July 5 shows that at the moment the currency is still observing a
buy signal with target level 1.4639, therefore it is recommended to consider long
positions. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated
above the price graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first
target is 1.4683 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the second target
will be the second resistance level at 1.4842. Upside movement remains while the price is
above the Kijun-sen (1.4405), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut
long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy
signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show possible end of the upside
movement, the lines are narrowing and directed up. The MACD is descending, which indicates
current correction movement, this filter does not allow us to trade up now, but the MACD
reverses up it will denote the resumption of the uptrend.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 1.4683 and further to 1.4842. Stop
Loss should be placed below 1.4405 and stretched up as the Kijun-sen advances. Iit is
recommended to open long positions after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the
time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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